While Obama patiently ponders Afghan policy, impatient Americans are already deciding: poll

As the globe-trotting President Obama presumably ponders his military options in the eight-year war in Afghanistan that isn't going that well, some ominous new poll numbers just out this afternoon for him to include.

Although the freshman president maintains that he's still patiently considering the options presented to him in late August and other questions asked since, any decision and announcement have been postponed further until the end of his latest foreign junket.

Meanwhile, the American public is already impatiently indicating its crumbling support for the conflict, the casualties, the financial costs and the idea of boosting our troop commitment in that troubled land.

Fifty-two percent of the 1,001 adult Americans polled Nov. 12-15 now say the war there has not been worth the cost, down 13 points in the last 11 months.

That's not a good sign for a president heading into a likely decision to increase that commitment -- and facing crucial midterm elections next year.

According to the new ABC News/Washington Post Poll, only 44% now say the war has been worth it, the smallest support percentage in nearly three years. The poll has a margin of error of +/-3.5%.

Once, Obama's war policies were his strongest poll suit (63%). Now, only 45% approve of Obama's handling of Afghanistan; more (48%) don't. His war support among independents, a crucial ingredient in the Democrat's election victory 54 weeks ago, has slipped to 39%.

Support for additional commitments is particularly weak among young voters and women.

Obama, like President Bush before him in both Afghanistan and Iraq, has made a main argument that it's better to fight terrorism over there and deny terrorists safe training and staging havens than endure repeat 9/11 attacks on the homeland.

Ominously, for Obama, however, less than a quarter of Americans now buy that argument. Nearly two-thirds (64%) currently say the risk of terrorism at home is the same whether we continue to fight there or withdraw.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: EPA

Californians say no more gay marriage votes: Times/USC poll

A majority of California voters opposes putting the issue of gay marriage back on the ballot for another referendum.

According to a just-released survey by the new polling team of The Times and the University of Southern California, a small majority of Californians favors the right of gay couples to marry.

But a far larger proportion of the 1,500 registered voters in the new poll opposes putting the issue back on another statewide ballot next year. This week Maine became the 31st state where voters, in effect, defeated the idea of gay marriage in a statewide vote.

Not surprisingly, same-sex-marriage views were sharply polarized by political party; 66% of Democrats thought it should be legal and 71% of Republicans opposed it. Nonpartisan voters were less enthusiastic than Democrats but still backed it, 59% to 34%.

Overall, the smallest majority of 51% of California voters favored marriage rights for same-sex couples and 43% opposed them, according to the survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

However, a surprisingly large number of Californians -- almost 60% -- were certain that they did not want the issue revisited in 2010, just one election cycle after it last hit the ballot.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Associated Press

Now that Garamendi's gone, Schwarzenegger has a decision to make

California Lt. Gov. John Garamendi was sworn in as a member of Congress today. He will represent the Bay Area's 10th Congressional District. He's a Democrat, but his rise creates an opportunity for Republicans, as we'll explain in just a bit.

Garamendi won the seat with almost 53% of the vote in a special election on Tuesday, soundly defeating Republican businessman David Harmer.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi swore Garamendi in. She said his win, along with the election Tuesday of New York Democrat Bill Owens, meant one important thing: Two more Democratic votes when the healthcare overhaul hits the floor of the House on Saturday.

Mark Silva has more on what Pelosi said over at our snappy new blog about the goings-on in Washington, D.C. Now.

Garamendi's new gig means the lieutenant governor's seat is now empty.

And that means, as our colleague in Sacramento, Shane Goldmacher, explains today, that Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger now has the power to name a replacement. Except that Schwarzenegger's choice will have to be confirmed by the Democratic-dominated Legislature -- which could set up a political showdown.

-- Kate Linthicum

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Photo: John Garamendi and his wife, Patti, celebrate his election victory Tuesday night. Credit: Associated Press.

Democrat Mayor Gavin Newsom quits bid for California governor's office

Gavin Newsom, the controversial mayor of San Francisco, abandoned his bid for the Democratic nomination to run for California governor next year, succeeding term-limited Republican incumbent Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Newsom said he made the decision with "great regret" because he "found it impossible to commit the time required to complete this effort the way it needs to -- and should be -- done." (See his full statement below.)

The harsh political reality, however, is the real reason is his campaign was getting no statewide traction or much money, despite recent campaign help[ from ex-President Clinton. Ex-governor, ex-mayor, current Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown remains the invisible 800-pound donkey in the political room. Brown hasn't even....

Clever Calif. Dem Garry South says one specific Republican would make 'a great governor'

Garry South, the ever-voluble, ever-quotable political strategist, has made a name for himself with his provocative, often outrageous statements on behalf of Democratic candidates and causes.

More than a few of his candidates have cringed -- even if they were privately pleased -- as South scorched the Republican opposition. (Most of his inflammatory, over-the-top remarks are, in truth, about as random and spontaneous as a precision-guided missile.)

Nonetheless, it was something of a surprise at a California Chamber of Commerce forum today in Napa, Calif., when South had this to say about GOP gubernatorial hopeful Tom Campbell:

"He's a great guy. He would make a great governor. You can quote me on that."

OK.

True, South probably said those nice things because he's convinced that Campbell, the pauper in the 2010 Republican gubernatorial race against big-spending Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner to succeed Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, has no chance of winning.

That, of course, remains to be seen.

Some have drawn a comparison between Campbell's circumstances and another vastly outspent dark horse candidate who improbably managed to beat a pair of free-spending millionaires: Gray Davis in 1998.

His campaign, not incidentally, was run by none other than -- oh, look! -- Garry South.

The difference, South pointed out, was Davis' support within the Democratic base, something the heretical Tom Campbell -- he of the 32-cent-a-gallon gas tax hike proposal -- seems to lack among the state's tax-hating Republican base.

What makes South's comment especially noteworthy, however, is his current role, managing the gubernatorial primary campaign of Democratic San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom.

If Campbell is such a great fellow with all that promise, why isn't South supporting his bid for governor?

"I'm a Democrat," South replied. "You need to ask?"

Jamie Fisfis, a Campbell strategist who joined South on the panel along with consultants for Poizner, Whitman and Democratic Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown, had this to say afterward: "Sounds like Garry's trying to destroy another Republican candidate he doesn't want to face in the general election."

South, it might be recalled, helped engineer the defeat of former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan in the Republican primary of the 2002 governor's race, helping ease the way for Davis' reelection. [Updated 9:40 a.m. Oct. 30: An earlier version of this post incorrectly said Riordan ran in the 2006 primary.]

-- Mark Z. Barabak

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Photo: South's office.

Gavin Newsom holds his own election -- on his campaign logo

In classical Greek, logos generally means the expression of thought through speech, but in advertising and especially politics, it has come to mean the basic symbol that will define and carry a campaign and build the buzz so important to sales – or election.

San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom is going one better, holding an election for people to chose the image that will mark his race for the Democratic nomination for governor and then for the California general election in 2010 if he captures the nod.

“How you campaign says a lot about how you will govern, once elected,” according to a letter attributed to campaign manager Nick Clemons. “So we’re going to do things differently. Usually, the process of deciding on a campaign logo is a big, guarded secret. Well, not this time.

“We put together a group of six different logos on our website, and your vote will determine the official Gavin Newsom campaign logo,” according to Clemons.

The vote closes at midnight Sunday, and the winner will be announced Monday. You can view all six choices at: http://www.gavinnewsom.com/actions/logo.

At least four of the logos play off the idea of the sun rising over a new day, an idea that Barack Obama used so successfully in his campaign for president.

Of course not every logo is a winner. When the Alliance for Climate Protection, a nonprofit group founded by Al Gore, who donated his Nobel Peace Prize to the group to fight global warming, unveiled its new logo, the response was, well, cool at best.

The logo, a stylized "WE" within a green circle, was criticized by some as being derivative of other advertising campaigns, including one for sneakers.

The group and its ad agency defended the choice, saying it played off of the “We the people” opening of the U.S. Constitution.

The Newsom logo candidates are mainly in blues and reds, even a sort of rust. Presumably, he avoided browns so as not to give an opening to his Democratic opponent Jerry Brown. 

– Michael Muskal

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Images: Newsom for California Committee

Meg Whitman still explaining decades of not voting

Meg Whitman is still fending off questions about her spotty voting record.

Whitman, you may recall, is the former eBay CEO who spent most of her adult life not registered to vote. She also is hoping to become the GOP candidate for governor in California. Presumably, this would be accomplished through a decidedly un-high-tech fashion — people (or to be precise, registered voters) going to the polls or filling out absentee ballots and popping them in the mail.

As our friends over at the political blog The Swamp report, Whitman had to answer more questions about voting this morning on the Fox Business Network. "I’ve been very straight-up that my voting record isn’t perfect,” Whitman told Neil Cavuto. "I did not consistently vote. Like many Americans, I’ve missed too many elections ... ” Here's the full report.

So how will California voters react? Two letters to the editor in the Opinion section of today’s Times offer instructive examples.

Audrey Wicks of Irvine says Whitman has the abilities to be a great governor and doesn’t mind that Whitman had not registered until a few years back.

“She was very busy not only running a large company but furthering it, making it a big success,” Wicks writes. “She puts all of her energies into the job for which she’s responsible. This is to her credit. There are too many people who vote because they think it’s the American way. There are too many people who do not study the issues and merely vote without thought on the issues. This is one of the factors that has our state in such a detrimental status.”

Vincent J. Carollo of Upland takes a decidely different view and Whitman has to hope he's in the minority:

“I have two signs for the campaign trail: ‘Sorry Meg, I will be too busy to register and vote for you.’ And: ‘Meg, ever heard of the absentee ballot?’ ”

Meanwhile, the Whitman campaign announced today that she has won the endorsement of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. In a statement the campaign says she’s already been endorsed by former California Gov. Pete Wilson, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Arizona Sen. John McCain. No word yet on whether Whitman will be tapped for any GOP get-out-the-vote efforts.

 -- Steve Padilla

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Photo: Meg Whitman speaks at the California Republican Convention in Indian Wells in September. Credit: Associated Press

California gubernatorial hopeful Gavin Newsom's town-hall meeting [Updated]

Did you hear? Gavin Newsom, the Democratic front-runner for California governor, held an online town-hall meeting today.

No? You didn't hear?

The San Francisco mayor hosted yet another teleconference at noon today, taking questions from Facebook and Twitter users.

The live-stream video was embedded on Newsom's Facebook page, but didn't draw much of a crowd.

[Updated, 6:10 p.m.: Nick Clemons, a representative for Newsom's campaign, called to tell us that the viewership numbers reported earlier in this post were deceptively low. The numbers were taken from UStream’s live report. Due to technical problems that caused the video stream to periodically cut out, UStream's report was inaccurate.  UStream says 4,500 people tuned in over the course of the hourlong chat, company representative Shari Folds wrote in an e-mail that was forwarded to us by Clemons. An early headline on this item described the town-hall-style meeting as "lonely."]

 

Viewers drifted in and out as Newsom answered questions about taxes, parks and marijuana decriminalization. The latter is a popular topic online, and one that President Obama faced during his own town-hall meeting.

"You could not find a stronger supporter of medical marijuana," Newsom said, referring to his pot policies. "I'd love to see that happen."

Newsom is no stranger to taking on controversial subjects. Addressing the idea of a healthcare public option, which San Francisco has ...

Spielberg, Katzenberg and Geffen step up to support Jerry Brown for California governor

Hollywood’s three top political heavyweights didn’t waste any time throwing their support behind Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown, who announced Tuesday that he was filing papers to explore a run for the Democratic nomination for California governor.

An adviser to Steven Spielberg, Jeffrey Katzenberg and David Geffen disclosed this afternoon that the three men would be hosting a fundraiser for Brown on Nov. 18.

The location is TBA, but expect it to be west of La Cienega Boulevard, which, as Angelenos know, is where a lot of money resides.

“This should be a huge launching pad for Brown’s candidacy,” said Andy Spahn, who's organizing the event.

The details are still being worked out, but this much is certain: when the SKG boys get together, the take is usually huge. (Just ask President Obama, who raked in millions at the threesome’s fundraisers.)

Up until now, Brown, a former governor and Oakland mayor, has been quietly raising money in Hollywood, tapping his old friends from the 1970s, including Cindy and Glenn Frey, Sharon and Don Henley, Jena and Michael King, Deborah and Jeff Wald, and Ellen and Ken Ziffren.

Also making the money rounds is San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who is admired in Hollywood for his leadership role against Proposition 8, the statewide measure that banned gay marriage.

The question: Will the industry back the guy they’ve known for years (Brown is 71) or the fresh young face (Newsom is 41) in California’s 2010 Democratic gubernatorial primary?

There’s still eight months between now and the June 8 election to find out.

— Tina Daunt

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Top photo: Jerry Brown in Los Angeles in September. Credit: Getty Images. Bottom photo: David Geffen, Jeffrey Katzenberg and Steven Spielberg in New York in 2004. Credit: Associated Press.

Sarah Palin, read this! Gavin Newsom's media advice

Bipartisan note to Alaska's Republican Sarah Palin from a direct-action California Democrat:

Stop whining about negative coverage from newspapers that don't like you and never will except if you help promote their publisher's favorite local charity and even then the affection will be short-lived.

Instead, simply help those nattering nabobs of negativity go out of business, one angry subscriber at a time.

Gangsters knew intuitively not to sue/argue with newspapers because of the resulting drumbeat of new negative stories. But it took longer for politicians across the ideological spectrum to learn the conventional wisdom: Don't argue with people who buy newspaper ink by the barrel.

Grumbling and worse over the media is sometimes warranted and always chronic among those in the public eye, who depend on the publicity but don't like it all.

Lyndon Johnson blamed negative media coverage for much of the Vietnam War opposition and the self-imposed end of his political career. Richard Nixon was not a huge fan of the Washington Post, which through Watergate helped him move along to memoir-writing a couple of years earlier than planned.

Of course, the media can create a handy target to help unify political followers against a perceived common enemy. Think Ron Paul's well-covered claims of being ignored last year and Republican convention delegates turning en masse to boo the overhanging media booths in St. Paul's Xcel Energy Center. 

And Palin is likely to re-mention media bias toward her and her family in her eagerly-awaited book, now set for publication Nov. 17. (Countdown now at 49 days.) She's particularly aggrieved over some mainstream media that took local blogs/gossip at face value. It's all sure to provide juicy new reasons to love and hate her, which Harper's corporate parent, News Corp., is unlikely to mind at all.

Who knows, you might even see Palin on another News Corp. property, Fox News. The way you just happen to see CBS stars show up on CBS talk shows and actors from Universal movies appear on NBC.

But now liberal San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, who would like to be California's next governor, has added a novel twist to media-bashing. He got a Tweet from a follower feeling aggrieved about coverage of Newsom.

Not surprisingly, the mayor was sympathetic to the sympathy. He did not mess around or waste one of his 140 characters.

Newsom Twittered out to all 1.1 million-plus followers, specific advice on how to terminate their newspaper subscription, to at least one San Francisco publication.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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