Top of the Ticket, the start of Year Two

On this, the first anniversary of our Top of the Ticket blog, we are reminded of the mercurial, unpredictable nature of U.S. politics -- part of what makes what we do so fascinating.

Our goal -- one of us on the East Coast and the other on the far more important or at least less humid West Coast -- was to write about Campaign '08 virtually around the clock.

Our second-ever posting, 12 months ago today, previewed an upcoming L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll; later in the day, we detailed the results of the nationwide survey. The findings were in line with other polls of the time.

In the Republican presidential race, which then seemed the most likely to last deep into the primary season, Rudy Giuliani was perched in first place. His lead wasn't overwhelming, but it was strong enough that he appeared certain to remain a major contender.

His liberal record on social issues loomed as an obvious liability within his party, but his tough-on-terrorism message was attracting substantial support from moderates and GOP-leaning independents.

His major headache among rivals last June was an as-yet-undeclared candidate who was riding a wave as the great conservative hope -- Fred Thompson. He ran a strong second in the poll.

Lagging far behind were John McCain and Mitt Romney, each barely with double-digit support. In our preview posting, we were especially scornful of McCain, noting sarcastically (and foolishly, as it turned out) that in the poll, he found himself "in heated competition with the 'Don't Know' category."

Meriting no mention from us was Mike Huckabee, one of several back-of-the-pack candidates barely earning any support across the country.

The Democratic race, at that point, seemed so much more cut-and-dried.

Hillary Clinton was the clear front-runner; Barack Obama was just as clearly ...

Excerpts from Hillary Clinton's chat with Bill O'Reilly

Fox News Channel has released excerpts of Hillary Clinton's interview with Bill O'Reilly, before the airing tonight of the first segment of the talk (Part 2 broadcasts Thursday). Not surprisingly, the first topic spotlighted was the Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

Here's the excerpt, which leaves it unclear whether she was addressing a specific Wright remark or the inflammatory tenor of many of his comments came after O'Reilly asked her: "You're an American citizen. I'm an American citizen. He's an American citizen, Rev. Wright. What do you think when you hear a fellow American citizen say that stuff about America? What do you think?"

“Well, I take offense at it. I think it’s offensive and outrageous. And, you know, I’m going to express my opinion, others can express theirs. But, you know, it is -- it is part of, you know, just an atmosphere that we’re in today where all kinds of things are being said.

"And people have to, you know, decide what they believe. And I sure don’t believe the United States government was behind AIDS.”

It makes perfect sense for Clinton to condemn Wright, especially on the AIDS issue. We wonder, though, if at some point in the interview she cut Barack Obama the type of slack John McCain did on Tuesday.

Here's part of the quote McCain gave CNN on Tuesday:

"I have made it very clear that I don't believe that Rev. Wright reflects the views of Sen. Obama, and I don't have anything more to say about it."

(Update: Clinton told O'Reilly that Obama "made his views clear, finally, and did what he had to do.")

Another Clinton excerpt seems to suggest ...

Barack Obama denounces Jeremiah Wright's 'ridiculous' notions

The break between Barack Obama and his onetime pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, is now official.

In comments in North Carolina today, Obama noted that he had given Wright the "benefit of the doubt" when the furor over the preacher first erupted in mid-March, based on YouTube snippets from past sermons in which his incendiary comments included a condemnation of America.

No more, the Democratic presidential contender stressed, following Wright's remarks Monday at the National Press Club in Washington.

Obama began his response today by saying that a belief in racial reconciliation "is in my DNA" (and given his biracial bloodlines, of course, that resonates as more more than just a symbolic phrase).

"Yesterday, we saw a very different vision," Obama said of Wright's Washington appearance, which at one point he termed a "performance."

He could hardly have distanced himself farther from the man who officiated at his  wedding ceremony  and baptized his two children.

Obama described himself as "outraged" by many of Wright's remarks and "saddened" by what he termed "the spectacle of what we saw yesterday."

He characterized as "ridiculous" Wright's notion that the AIDS epidemic may have been a conspiracy inflicted on blacks by the federal government and that Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan should be considered a leading voice in modern times.

Such views ...

McCain confronts AIDS protesters

Manchester, N.H. -- Republican John McCain's "town hall" meetings routinely are more freewheeling and provocative than the comparable events staged by other presidential candidates. McCain actually enjoys mixing it up with those who disagree with him. Today, though, he was confronted with a determined group of young protestors who simply wanted to shout at him to make their point.

More than 1,000 people -- potentially a good sign for McCain's hopes in Tuesday's primary -- showed up midday to hear and question him at a school gymnasium in Salem, N.H. But, The Times' Maeve Reston reports, moments into his opening remarks the protesters interrupted, waving signs that called for $50 billion in spending to combat AIDS.

After the crowd greeted their chants with boos, the demonstrators piped down -– prompting McCain to invite them to stay around and discuss the issue with him during the question-and-answer portion of his appearance.

“I don’t think I’ve ever had a town hall meeting where I didn’t try to listen to everybody, that’s why, frankly, my friends, we're winning this campaign," he said (polls do show him on the rise).

The Q&A was not to be, however. A few minutes into the Arizona senator’s remarks, they resumed their chants -- “People with AIDS are dying; you’re not even trying.”

As they shouted, McCain staff members began escorting them from the room. And some McCain supporters returned rhetorical fire by shouting: “Mac is Back.”

McCain also delivered a parting shot: “You know, I’ve always been curious why people like you who live in a free and open society would disrespect one of the most fundamental parts of America, and that is the ability to take part in the conversation with people who aspire to [political] office. I’ll never understand it.”

The crowd applauded.

-- Don Frederick

Thompson targets the leading teachers group

Restrained and constrained.

If this campaign season's YouTube debates -- and a few others -- often provoked free-wheeling and unpredictable exchanges, today's forum in Iowa among the Republican presidential candidates was about as buttoned-down as they come.

Want Mike Huckabee to better explain his 1992 comment that AIDS sufferers should be quarantined? Want to hear more about what he meant by recently wondering aloud, ''Don't Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?''

We did, but the producers and questioner for today's debate decided not to go there. Presumably, those and other controversial topics will get a full airing in the coming days, but that won't happen in face-to-face encounters (the forum was the last for the GOP candidates before the Jan. 3 caucuses).

The Times' Mark Z. Barabak and Michael Finnegan covered the debate, and their story can now be found here (as well as in Thursday's print editions).

We do have to give moderator Carolyn Washburn credit for asking a good question about education -- not only because the subject is often ignored on the campaign trail, but because ...

Democrats set to woo the NAACP

Applause-meters at the ready, political reporters will be eagerly gauging whether Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama sparks the most enthusiastic response Thursday as they and other Democratic presidential candidates speak at the annual NAACP convention.

The pressure will be on Obama, whose bid to become the nation's first African-American president obviously will have resonance with the audience in Detroit. But while Obama has periodically excelled on the campaign trail when he's on his own, he has yet to clearly steal the spotlight at mass gatherings of White House contenders.

The Clinton name, of course, remains hugely popular within the black community. And Hillary can be counted on to be well-prepared when her turn comes Thursday, if her performance at the recent forum at Washington's Howard University was any indication. There, her comment that if AIDS "was the leading cause of death of white women between the age of 25 and 34, there would be an outraged outcry in this country" sparked the night's loudest clapping from a crowd well aware of the high death rates from the disease among younger blacks. It will be interesting to see if she's got a similarly pithy line to deliver.

Also interesting to watch will be how the lone Republican presidential candidate who accepted an invite to speak at the convention, Tom Tancredo, is received. His strongly conservative voting record as a House member from Colorado is not one most NAACP members would support. But Tancredo can be expected to dwell on his signature issue --- cracking down on illegal immigration --- and that is a message with many adherents in the black community (see this column by Earl Ofari Hutchinson).

Bill Richardson's report card

We would imagine Bill Richardson's campaign is feeling pretty good about itself these days. And we're more than willing to take note of positive developments for the New Mexico governor.

But allow us to chime in with a little unpaid advice: as the campaign intensifies after the summer, and lots of voters start paying much more attention to the various forums and debates, Richardson would be well-advised to better prepare for obvious questions and better articulate his answers.

First, the good news for the Democratic presidential contender:

          * The $7-plus million he reported raising in the year's second quarter --- while dwarfed by the figures Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton posted --- was a solid number for Richardson, given his place in the race.