Why did Obama's Osama bin Laden poll boost get buried at sea so quickly too?

Well, the SEALs' Pakistan raid may have gone as planned.

But the anticipated boost for President Obama in the nation's job approval polls crashed like that lost helicopter on the Osama bin Laden compound wall.

History shows that presidents usually receive positive bounces in approval polls after major national security events, even bad ones like Pearl Harbor.

Obama's predecessor, President George W. Bush, experienced a 15-point bounce for seven weeks for capturing but not even killing Saddam Hussein. That dictator decision was left to the courts. After 9/11, Bush got a 35-point bounce that lasted two years.

Based on those historical patterns Public Opinion Strategies predicted that Obama would enjoy a 13-point bounce that would likely last into early October.

Not.

According to a new Gallup tracking poll just out, Obama's poll bounce was six points. It lasted two weeks.

And the Democrat is already back down to the ...

... 46% approval he had before he watched the SEALs raid on satellite cam the night of May 1. Forty-four percent disapprove now.

All presidents will say, if cornered, that they pay no attention to public opinion polls, none whatsoever. One-hundred percent of them are fibbing with a margin of error of plus or minus zero percentage points. Obama didn't just tire of that pesky birther issue.

Like Donald Trump, Obama and his political strategists saw those puzzled suspicions starting to gain traction among nonconspiratorial Americans, wondering if, in fact, the long-form birth certificate was so silly, why was the ex-state senator still hiding it? So, like a pragmatic pol, he released it. And, guess what; the issue went away.

It is a long time -- 540 days, to be exact -- before the 2012 presidential election, although the cement will be drying by the summer of 2012.

Still plenty of time for Obama to recoup as Ronald Reagan did and Jimmy Carter didn't. Or, as late-night talk show host Conan O'Brien suggested, for Obama to kill Osama bin Laden two more times.

Yes, the rapid meltdown of Obama's approval boost this month was connected to the serial botched recountings of the episode by Obama aides trying to pat the boss on the back too hard too quickly.

But it also indicates the stubborn power of more fundamental political challenges facing him and his team of fellow Chicago operatives.

These are mainly economic problems, which polls also show have been and remain the American public's top priority since even before Obama launched his nagging healthcare drive.

The unemployment rate, which inched back up to 9% last month.

Most obviously gasoline prices, which Americans always use as a key to how they feel about any White House administration. And a kind of general, pervasive unease and uncertainty that prompts pessimism and a hesitancy to spend or invest, reflected now in lowered estimates for this year's economic growth.

Obama will no doubt retreat to his favorite argument about how he, too, is impatient, how real change takes time and what a deep economic hole he inherited. But after 846 days in office and $787 billion in lame stimulus spending, it's his economy now.

The next big Washington fight will be over raising the national debt ceiling. Maybe you heard the thunk earlier Monday when the United States reached that limit. As a helpful reminder, Republican House Speaker John A. Boehner released a statement, including;

Americans understand we simply can’t keep spending money we don’t have. Spending-driven deficits, record debt, and the threat of tax hikes are smothering our economy with uncertainty and making it harder for small businesses to hire new workers. 

Recent polls indicate Americans are unhappy about raising the limit without significant spending cuts, despite the dire credit warnings.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Follow The Ticket via Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or click this: @latimestot. Our Facebook Like page is over here. We're also available on Kindle. Use the ReTweet buttons above to share any item with family and friends.

Photo: Mohammad Zubair / Associated Press; Photo illustration: Andrew Malcolm; Susan Walsh / Associated Press (gas sign in Washington).

Comments

[DRJJJ]

President Osama, American's don't understand we can't spend money we don't have (sorry, double negative) , because they've been spending money they don't have! Don't expect them to vote for any other then a big spender!

[John Yelifari]

How much did the Republicans pay you to write such an offensive article about our Commander-in-Chief? You can preach all the satanic verses that you have but this president is going to win again in 2012. Mark it on your calander, idiot.

[Dennis McDonald]

What "anticipated boost" are you talking about, given that no one knew this was coming? Besides, why should a sitting President get special kudos while behaving .. like a sitting President?

I think we're dealing with mainstream media expectations here, not what voters are thinking.

[Chris Nelson]

The big apprehension about President Obama is and always has been that he is a left wing ideologue. As such he is ill-equipped to revive the economy. Everything needed to restore economic vitality goes against his systemic political ideology. He is pro-big government, pro-big labor, anti-private sector, and anti-business. The surprise is that his approval rating is as high as it is.

[jemimah]

It was hyped on shakey grounds. Plus the birth certificate issue was made more curious with the release of an obviously altered document. Americans are more honest and objective than those contrived media reports. When is the media going to conduct their business in the public's interest? Has that ethical obligation been rescinded?

[outdoor guy]

The short bounce was because it didn't take long for the public to see how incompetent Obama and his team continue to be. He comes across as an amateur by releasing ever changing operational information again and again, then that horrible situation room photo showing Obama cowering becomes public. The final act was dumping the body into the ocean and refusing to release photos of the body. Obama is proving himself to be a poor, weak leader who has learned little after two years on the job.

[TessTy]

LOL NOT

[Lois Johnson]

Why does John Boehner tell the American Taxpayer "we can't just keep spending money we don't have?" When the government is the one spending the money we don't have. Why not just create a new Bureau to see why the government keeps spending money it doesn't have? Then it will grow to gigantic proportions like all the other Bureau's and feed on itself and cause even more over-spending. Well, John, you can't keep borrowing from Social Security; it is bankrupt, but boy does the Federal Government keep Foreign Aid going to all the countries, including Pakistan and mostly the oil rich middle east and Africa, that we don't have and that was never intended to be used to buy favors for politicians, instead of used to keep America healthy and strong and debt free. STOP FOREIGN AID, and keep our money in America; just think what a windfall you would give our own country and the people who earned that tax money who were lucky enough to still have a job that hasn't moved to India, Mexico or China. You brought this country to its knees with your extravagant life styles while robbing us of medicaid, medicare, and social security rises in cost of living. You sit in a cushy job, special health insurance, retirement benefits for life for working 2 years. Start cutting your own pork and show the American people you mean business; instead of ripping off your countryman every chance you get and then telling us to tighten our belts. My belt is touching my backbone through my belly now; how much tighter can I cinch it?

[Harold]

Sorry to crash your party with some reality, but Gallup isn't the only poll out there. Check the average.

[stephen harper]

As a non-American neutral observer... Please tell me that the people of your country are not so devoid of critical thinking skills as to buy any of this.(?) "Bin Laden is Dead!... but we have no proof... and we quickly disposed of the only evidence (his body) out of respect for Muslim customs."

SERIOUSLY??????????

The other possibility is that the entire scenario was staged (and very poorly) to rally Americans behind their president.

Which one is more likely? Do you really believe its possible that after a near ten year manhunt that there would be no confirmation of death? I'm sure that Bin Laden is rolling on the floor laughing in his Malibu beach house, playing X-box with "W".....

[Barry Hussein]

Why would Obozo receive higher approval for something that has little effect on the average man's daily existence? His total lack of humility and comprehension for the typical middle class American's situation, makes him a target of ridicule and scorn among the masses.

[guest555]

if obama can't do it, i don't think anyone can. do you see any other economy in the world improving lately? i think it will be a real slow recovery for everyone. war on terrorism is real, the changes in the arab world are significant as well as climate changes and technological changes. obama has been steady despite the immense pressures from all players. he's making the right decisions and giving america a dignity it has lost in the past presidency. so yes i'd still vote for him.

[Mike Thomas]

Stephen Harper, I am no fan of Obama. In fact, I think he is the worst president in the history of our Republic. With that being said, he is telling the truth about Osama. How do I know that? If Osama were alive, a video tape would have been produced with Osama alive and holding up a copy of the NY Times announding his death. This would be the equivalent of a political atom bomb. Obama would be impeached or immediately resign from office. The US would never be trusted and would be an internatioanl laughing stock and Al Queada and Osama Bin Laden would take on mythological status. Osama simply couldn't pass on a once in a lifetime opportunity to utterly humiliate the United States.

[FRANK REZO]

the only thing obama can to is talk talk talk worst president in my life time and carter was better obama more goverment ,. take more rights away . ps bush is the one who made this happen gettind osama, not obama, get him out in 2012 get are country back.PS NO US PRESIDENT NEEL TO A KING ,AND 3 YAERS FOR BIRTH CER . COME ON OPEN EYES PEOPLE ,LESS GOVERMENT . THOUGHT IS WAS WE THE PEOPLE . NOT WE THE GOVERMENT

[FRANK REZO]

OBAMA WANT MORE GOVERMENT CONTROL, WHAT HAPPEN TO WE THE PEOPLE. TAKING MORE FREEDOM AWAY . 3 YEAR BIRTH CERT. OPEN YOUR EYES PEOPLE. AND LET GET THIS GREAT COUNTY BACK. HER IS A START GET THE 55 MILLION PEOPLE THE ARE NOT AMERICANS OUT OF THIS COUNTRY .BUT NO WELL FAIR FREE 4 PEOPLE THAT ARE NIOT AMERICANS .THAT WOULD BE A GOOD START ON SAVING MONEY FOR THE COUNTRY , THAT BILLIONS THERE ,THEN I THINK THE GOVERMENT SHOULD WORK FREE FOR A YEAR ,GIVE THERE MONEY UP FOR THERE MISTEAKES , MILLION MORE , BUT NO . LET TAX US , U AND ME ,AND THEY CAN STOP GIVING ALL THE COUNTY MILLION AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS . NAME ONE COUNTRY THAT HELPS US . U CANT ,THERE MORE BILLIONS ,I THINK WE SAVE 100 BILLION ABOUT RIGHT . WAKE UP PEOPLE GET HIM OUT . TO BAD REGAN CANT BE REBORN

[JB]

Americans like the guy who scores the touchdown. But they don't like the guy who does the endzone dance for half a minute.

[Jim]

I, for one, welcome our new totalitarian overlord-D'ohbama-Our Savior-In-Chief and his one-party rule. The only thing dumber than Our Savior-In-Chief are the self-serving Demonrats that voted the idiot in office. In one single action, the entire National Democrat Party proved that collectively they are, in fact, dumber than George W. Bush. Congratulations on an extremely difficult accomplishment!

[LogicalUS]

"Mark it on your calander, idiot"..

Why yes, you are self identifying as a moron of the first order then I suppose.

So which of this disaster's accomplishments are you so in love it???

13% unemployment?
$5 a gallon gas
1% GDP economy growth?
Trillion dollars of new dollar debt?
Increased troops in two new wars in the Middle East?
Complete compitulation on your hated GITMO and ultimate rejection of the left's entire stated foreign policy ideas to GW Bush concerning handling of terrorist. Or was that as expected just a ugly dishonest attack for political gain?
Crippling regulations on business which can only be avoided thru special relief gained only thru political connections like the 1500 waivers extended for ObamaCare in exchange for payola contributions to Obama and his Democrats? Will you be eating tonight in one of the toney restuarants which paid a few coins into Nancy Pelosi's bank account and now does not have to provide your so loved marxist healthcare to its employees? Isn't socialism grand?

Just which of Obama lovely accomplishments will be sweeping you to the polls?

Please regale us with the new hope and change, idiot? Or is it as expected that you are one of Obama's deadbeat nation who will vote for him because of the color of his skin and his promises steal more money from American workers to give you more booze and cigs in exhange for your vote?

Let face it only the most seriously mentally disfunctional would consider voting for his disaster in 2012, are you one?

[B]

Okay, I'm 35. The last I heard anyone saying "Not!" and it sounding cool was when I was a kid, in the late '80s. It fell out of use (I started to hear my parents say it) in the '90s, possibly earlier.

Is it too much to ask that someone in journalism biz put out a ruling or an ordinance or a fatwa or *something* banning the use of "Not!" as a standalone sentence?

The worst part of this is that in 10 years, papers will probably start writing the even more irritating "fail" and "epic fail", and they'll keep doing that for 30 years.

[richard40]

Obama has never been in that much trouble on foreign policy. His worste problems have been in his extreme leftist domestic policy, and killing Bin Laden did not alter that. I think the only lasting benefit Obbama can get from the bin Laden raid is he can finally point to one thing where most people agree he got it right, in the midst of so many other self inflicted disasters. But even on this front of finally doing something competantly, his case was undermined by his clumsy handling of the press relations afterward, leading many to think that the competance came from the SEALS, and Panettas CIA, rather than Obama.
In the end though, Obamas problems go back to Clintons simple saying, "Its the economy stupid", and on that front Obamas history is of constant failure, rigid leftist idealogical inflexibility, constant power grabbing, and gross incompetance.

[Ahem]

The boost from the well planned operation and Obama's near flawless speech (it was really good), was first diluted by the orgy of self-serving and contradictory leaks and preening photo-ops from an Administration that seemingly was unable to act like adults.

The next dissipation came from the "its Monday, now back to work" return of reality to the voters:

Unemployment is still high, caused in part by Obama's stubborn FDR-like efforts to keep wages and prices up instead of letting them fall to market levels, so business can began to hire more people. Unions are making it worse, especially state employees, who resist all efforts to adjust their benefits to market. The result: fewer people employed at high wages and benefits instead of more employed at reduced levels.

Obama resisted drilling in the Gulf for 2 years. The rigs have moved. We are paying more for oil than before--transferring more of our wealth to OPEC than before. Too late he agrees to allow drilling in ANWAR--it'll take at least 2 years for that to come on line. Maybe longer.

The new health care law makes hiring people more expensive: and waivers are being issued from it every week. So why have it at all? It was not popular outside DC, and it still is not.

Obama promised to control wasteful spending. He jettisoned that promise and the deficit has passed the "out of control" mark. The Weimar republic comes to mind. The world's biggest mutual fund no longer buys US Treasury bonds and since so much of our economy is built on borrowed money, what happens when the lending stops? What happens as the fed keeps printing dollars? The Chinese don't seem to want to find out. They are reducing their US treasury buys.

We are still involved in 2 wars that he irresonsibly promised to end, knowing that it could not be done. If there has been cutting in the federal budget, it it not discernable.

All of these worries receded in the Osama celebration, but never went away. We are worried sick about our debt, Obama's seeming infatuation with bullying business, protecting unions, spending money we don't have, raising taxes and what seems like the worst case of cronyism ever in the White House.

Yes he got top marks for the Osama operation. He deserved them. But that was yesterday. Our big problems are still here and getting worse.

[Jecolon]

This was an excellent column, but, you only received a silver pen from us. The golden pen is given to journalist who research to the end. You must research the long form, for we do know it was also a fraud. Maybe the name of a dead child born on that same day in Hawaii might help you along your research. The American people are not fooled by the releasing of his long form, the research (even high school children) have indicated that Obama is hiding something and we, at the assembly of patriots, know what it is. Come, research, and the golden pen will be yours.

[Gabby G.]

Maybe everyone gave their a shake and realized that it took ten years, 3 trillion dollars, thousands of soldiers dead and injured; and about a million dead civilians to kill one man. Doesn't seem like much of an achievement for the "most powerful" country in the world, does it!

[teapartydoc]

People are beginning to understand that their liberty, rights and well-being don't reside in Washington D.C., and that further empowerment of Washington D.C. is unlikely to garner them any improvement in the status of these treasures. In fact, they now realize that devolving power away from that city is what will strengthen them. They are just looking for leaders willing to enable that process.

[warlord]

Come 2012, this guy will lose office to a ham sammitch. He just keeps getting worse at his job.

[kekona]

what a worthless piece of journalism.

i find it hilarious how some people hate on obama so much. clearly, they are either:

1) a greedy capitalist who does not understand that the better off the nation as a whole is (via humanitarianism & egalitarianism done right), the better off each and every individual is. you say bullshit like "obama is socialist", but then why is denmark, a fairly socialized nation, considered the happiest nation in the world (according to studies)? you greedy jerks only think about yourselves and hate that obama is trying to implement some fairness into your dirty economic ideals.

2) you are ignorant, you probably have never left american soil. Or not enough...I bet words like "socialism" gets your blood boiling with anger/fear. yeah..."keep the fear alive", right? get some perspective, you parochial folks. you guys are biggest losers to the rest of the world.

...get with the program, people. this country is morally bankrupt, not because of rampant liberalism, but moreso because this nation has come to depend on materialism, passive consumerism, and utter selfishness.

welcome to the 21st century.