John Phillips: Why Hillary Clinton must run in 2012

If Hillary Clinton's primary voters and President Obama had their relationship status listed on their Facebook pages, it would change from “Married” to “It's complicated.”

To be fair, Hillary voters never fell in love with Obama, they just fell in line. Their relationship is less like a Julia Roberts chick flick and more like a Bengali arranged marriage.  

Because of their arrangement, Hillary-loving Obama voters are quick to jump ship whenever Mr. Hope-and-Change looks like he's getting played again by his political opponents, is in over his head or is dissing their girl.

Despite Obama's anti-climactic campaign announcement just now, according to all the recent polls, Hillary voters aren't only jumping ship –- they're taking their fins, snorkels and pina coladas with them.

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows President Obama's approval rating at....

...a pathetic 42% –- down four points from early March. The American public isn't impressed with his handling of the crisis in Libya either -– with 47% of the public against the war and 58% of registered voters saying the president has not clearly stated U.S. goals for the mission. 

These numbers are bad –- really bad –- CNN prime time ratings bad.

To put them into context, according to Gallup, 76% of Americans supported military action against Iraq in 2003, 90% gave the A-OK for strikes against Afghanistan in 2001, and 65% approved of putting boots on the ground in Somalia in 1993. 

It's also important to state that this isn't part of a "throw all the bums out" mood directed at Washington.

The approval numbers for Hillary are nearing an all-time high –- with Gallup showing 66% of Americans giving "Hill the Thrill" a big thumbs up –- up from 61% in July.

This leads to the questions: Why are one out of three Hillary lovers giving Obama bad marks? Will they stick with him in November 2012?

And, most importantly, if she senses enough blood in the water, will Hillary quit the administration and launch a primary bid against Obama?

Hill-rage at Obama

Hillary Clinton's big selling point during the 2008 Democratic primaries was that she was an experienced hand who's been around the block a few times...not like how her husband has been around the block...but, you get the point.

Then-Sen. Clinton's "3 AM Phone Call" ad drove that point home. The 30-second TV spot raised the possibility of a future world crisis and asked voters who they would want in the White House making the big decisions if all hell broke loose. 

Hillary voters ate it up with a spoon –- deciding that an awakened and enraged Clinton with cold cream on her face and curlers in her hair is far scarier to third-world despots than an ex-Illinois state senator.

The military action in Libya is Team Hillary's 'I told you so' moment...with Hillary serving as the realistic, aggressive war hawk and Obama being a not-ready-for-prime-time waffler.

This frustration was expressed by a Clinton insider in the British newspaper The Daily, who said, "Obviously, she’s not happy with dealing with a president who can’t decide if today is Tuesday or Wednesday, who can’t make his mind up...it’s like playing sports with a bunch of amateurs. And she doesn’t have any power. She’s trying to do what she can to keep things from imploding.”

This may not be a vote of no confidence...but at a minimum, it's voting 'present.'

Hill today, gone tomorrow

Hillary voters weren't swooned by Obama in the 2008 Democratic primaries and many are abandoning him in public opinion surveys today. But are they mad enough to ride the elephant in 2012? 

Get out the saddle, because that's exactly what they did in 2010.

In the midterm elections, while it's true the Democrats were routed everywhere, they got especially creamed in states where Hillary did well. In House races, the Democrats lost four seats in Florida, six in New York, five in Ohio, four in Pennsylvania and three in Texas –- all states Hillary carried in the 2008 Democratic primaries. 

Meanwhile, the Democrats strengthened their hand in places that went heavily for Obama in 2008 –- with pickups in Hawaii, Delaware and the MSNBC prime-time lineup.

The lesson: Hillary voters aren't only willing to pull the plug on their fellow Democrats -– they're willing to yank it like they're starting a lawn mower.

What the Hill? Hillary in 2012?

While it's true the Clintons are ambitious people, they've never been known to go on suicide missions -– those are for terrorists and hotel chains willing to rent rooms to Charlie Sheen. 

Despite her contemporary denials, Hillary would only throw her hat in the ring if she thought she had a better than even chance at moving back into the White House. Obama is looking weak, but not weak enough to justify a primary challenge...yet.

If Libya turns into a full blown disaster...resulting in billions of dollars wasted, boots on the ground and abysmal public opinion numbers, my money is on Hillary resigning her post as secretary of State and jumping in the 2012 primary.

She can even rerun the "3 AM Phone Call" ad...with the tagline 'See, I told you so.'

Previous John Phillips' Ticket items

For Republicans in 2012, it's Sarah Palin or another big fat L

At CPAC with Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Sarah Palin

Lessons from a political visit to Washington

-- John Phillips

Strangely enough, a man named John Phillips hosts “The John Phillips Show” on Talk Radio 790 KABC in Los Angeles, which can be heard weeknights from 6 to 10 p.m. Pacific.  Outside Southern California, his show is available live online at KABC.com  Also follow Phillips on Twitter  @JohnnyDontLike

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Photos: Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[DocinPA]

She won't do it. It would totally blow up the Democrat Party if she did.

[B H O]

if she got the nomination all the blacks would stay home. GOP win.

[Andrew P]

Challenging an incumbent president in your own party is monumentally hard. Practically impossible. Unless Obama is seen to be presiding over multiple disasters of his own making, Hillary has no chance in 2012. In fact, I would say that unless Obama screws the pooch so badly that he declines to seek the nomination (like Lyndon Johnson in 1968), Hillary has no prayer.

[Likely_Suspect]

Likely nailed this one - Hillary "wasn't interested" in staying on as SoS in a potential 2nd term; so the possibility exists. Staying home and being a grandmother doesn't look like an option either, so why not POTUS? Problem is the Libyan affair was reportedly on Hillary's insistence, so if it turns out badly she gets to wear that, too.

[DeVan95]

Bill and Hillary Clinton should be in prison for crimes against humanity for what they did to their fellow citizens at Waco, TX, on April 19, 1993. The Waco Massacre and church burning (it was not a “compound,” it was their church),was the most brutal, heinous violation of civil, human and Constitutional rights in this nation's history. Innocent men, women and children were attacked with tanks, poison gas (CS gas turns to cyanide when heated) and burned alive. Those who ran from the church were machine-gunned as documented in the movie "Waco, The Rules of Engagement." If you doubt how bad this was consider that you never hear the left stream media talk about it. They want it erased from history but this memorial site will remain forever: http://www.wizardsofaz.com/waco/waco2.html
And if that weren't bad enough, Clinton's thugs then stuck a machine gun in the face of a 5 year old boy and sent him to the communist gulag known as Cuba: http://www.therealcuba.com/elian_gonzalez.htm
Hillary Clinton should be required to explain her role in this vicious attrocity against her own citizens.

[who is on first?]

splendidly written article John Phillips.
what intrigues me even more is will obama get to first base with any of the potential dates(voters?)

will he even be allowed on the ballot of some states since he continues to hide that illusive birth certificate three floors down in the cellar.

right now i think the guy would be rather impeached than exposed to have told so many lies that do not match whatever is on that birth certificate.

this might be a throwback for some but admitedly, first things first? i mean if you cant get on first who gives a you-kno-what about 2nd base? it's not even in view!!!

[Deb]

Not so fast. Hillary referred to Syria's dictator Assad as a "reformer" (what?!?!?!) and her record in a real leadership position (HillaryCare) reveals her propensity towards secrecy and the aggressive use of leadership when she has complete power. Maybe she has mellowed with time (although the Assad statement was recent -- better leadership but horrible judgement?), but the other liability is that she is a Clinton, and the American people might not want the Clinton-Bush routine to set in. Other than these, I can't think of anything other than her radical pro-choice, pro-big government, screeching at political opponents, vacuous hypocrisy ("dissent is the highest form of patriotism") ditty bag of offerings that would make me vote NO if she was a candidate.

[John]

I can't believe the Democrat party would even allow Obama to run for a second term. Clinton would have a much better chance. If I were calling the shots for the Dems, I would break the news to Obama that "although he gave it a herculean effort, we have decided to back Clinton in 2012. If Hillary gets elected, we will offer him ambassador to Kenya, Czar to Chicago or Hawaii or whatever might interests him."

[srkeegan]

The great irony about this analysis and the Obama presidency in general is, Hillary lost the election because of her vote to authorize the military action in Iraq.

So what does Obama do? He makes her Secretary of State and went into Libya on the urging of—let's all say it together now, Hillary Clinton.

I don't see how she manages to pin Libya on his bad decision making when it was she that had to convince him that it was a good idea in the first place.

[Michael Pacholek]

I think this guy must be using more drug than the singer named John Phillips did. Hillary is finished, has said so herself. Neither Hillary Clinton, nor Sarah Palin, nor Mitt Romney, nor any other woman is going to beat Barack Obama next year.

[Andrew C]

Hillary's voters are rightly jumping ship on the Obama administration. During the 2008 primaries, many Hillary supporters I know liked Obama and acknowledged he represented the future of the Democrat party, but regarded him as dangerously inexperienced. Their worst fears are being realized.

The only problem I can see that Hillary might face is getting saddled with the responsibility for whatever bad transpires in Libya. It does seem after all that she prodded President Obama into action there.

[ZEKE]

Any body would be better than Obama

[Dale]

As far as I can see Obama and Hillary are equals on the incompetency meter. They both rate far below Palin who I also consider incompetent.

[Michael Adams]

I believe the foreign policy would definitely remain the same under Hillary: more wars and expansionism overseas. The domestic policy might differ ever-so slightly, but would include the continued erosion of our freedoms. I say that because our Presidents are globalists (favoring one-world governance) regardless of party affiliation. In every Presidential election, I believe we get to choose between globalists who report to "the powers that be" -- not to the American people. That's how it's been since Nixon was President, based on what I've learned. Search "Bilderberg + Hillary Clinton + Obama" -- if you care to find out for yourself. If not, continue bickering over who's better: Democrats or Republicans. The last thing the globalists want is for you to see them for who they really are, including their plans for our country.

[Bob A]

LOL! This is great! Dump the Kenyan Negro and watch wat happens with the 18% Negro population that were voting 10 to 1 for Democrats. Run Hillary Run!

[Jim in Houston]

Please God don't let either of these loony tunes become the newest destroyer of our country! They make the Keystone Cops look like highly qualified profession police officers. This bunch has done more to destroy this country in the last couple of years than anything Osama Bin Laden could dream of.

[Mick]

I cannot believe I could say this: I would feel much more comfortable with Hillary in the White House than the current resident. It is clear that he is in way over his head. Strange that the media waited until after his election to begin vetting him (and even now they are not very interested).

[Liquidity]

If you are saying Obama and his administration suck wind, I certainly agree. The competence level of Obama and cronies is even lower than Carter and administration. But Obama's incompetence is an endorsement of Hillary competence only in Demo-think (in most circumstances, an oxymoron). Were "worser" really a word, I might opine the prospect of Hillary as even worser than Obama.

So in my view, government is Baracken and the very idea of Obama being re-elected is Hussein. So dump him. But do find somebody more suitable that Hillary. And have them bring a birth certificate to the election!

[Baboonhead]

Pretty crappy "button" artwork you have going there! Next time get a real artist, those look like they were made by an un-artistic 12 year old!

[Luke]

This is a remarkably stupid column. I'm sure you know that, though, and just designed your column to maximize pageviews. Mission accomplished.

[Pearl Harbor]

National Debt $14.2 T
Yearly Interest $450 B.
Yearly income average US 40k
Only half of the working public pay any taxes, the upper half.
Japan and QE2 ending in June, will be the END.

The Progressive Democrat Party is about toget what it also wanted, the complete economic collapse of the USA.

Better stock up on God, Guns and Gold.

Hey America, You voted for these last 2 years.
You can't say you weren't told Obama would do this, we told you over and over and over. Vote for a Marxist and expect him to care about you or the US. LOL

[misanthropicus]

... and the plus side of Hillary as an eventual president would be her obstructing any attempt to clarify who is Barry Soetero and whether his election was actually a sort of soft coup, carryed by media, which put in the office an UNCONSTITUTIONAL president...

... with all implications in the likely finding that the US was run for 4 years fraudulently, therefore any and all acts generated by the White House ARE INVALID - hear, hear, Mr Putin!

[spawn44]

The socialist democrats have buried themselves in such a deep hole it won't matter who they run. The election of obama and his radical leftist agenda has set the democrat party back 50 years. Hillary is no better.

[Ken]

So, wait: people don't approve of US involvement in Libya, so they'd be more likely to vote for the person who urged us to hurry up and get involved in Libya? Not sure that line of reasoning holds up.

[van mungo]

This is a classic example of MSM personality-politics cud-chewing.

There is no significant difference between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on any key issue.

Moreover, the piece is devoid of elementary logic. If the Libya intervention turns into a disaster, Hillary will resign and declare her presidential candidacy--the very intervention of which she was one of the most ardent champions?

With column-filling lo-cal sweet nothings like this passing for "think" pieces, no wonder the established newspapers are headed into oblivion.

[RallyG]

Oh, yes. Let's trade an arrogant, incompeteent leftist slug for a vacuous, lying, corrupt, immoral arrogant liberal slug. Why vote for either of these clowns?

[sandiego1969]

The only thing this malignant chipmunk will be running for is the door.

[Cil Dawg]

I remember when Ted Kennedy challenged Jimmy Carter in 1976. It was terrible for the Democratic Party. Ted Kennedy campaigning on what a terrible job Carter did. Then at the Democratic National Convention, he wouldn't shake Carter's hand. You know that there's trouble when you can't get your own party to support you.

One thing I will say for Republicans - they are unified behind their incumbant (at least publically.)

[Anon]

Hilary is much more to the center than Obama and she is a pragmatist.

If it weren't for Florida being past due in the primary, she would be president right now.

[Anon]

Hilary is much more to the center than Obama and she is a pragmatist.

If it weren't for Florida being past due in the primary, she would be president right now.

[ragnarb]

3 AM phone call or not, Hillary has had a direct hand in the mess in the Middle East. Just because she is not Obama, does not mean she is better. Her colluding with obama may mean the world may not have a country called Israel in the near future. She has not met a dictator, a red or an anti Semite she hasn't loved.

[ms. helga from Usurperville]

PS - Don't forget about THE ARKANSAS PRISON TO CANADA BLOOD SCANDAL ( http://www.factor8movie.com) and the Clinton Chronicles.

[JoelW]

I can't imagine any reasonable scenario where a prominent cabinet member would resign specifically to challenge the incumbent president in the primaries. Especially if that incumbent president has already declared he's running again. That would trigger a hellacious civil war within the Democratic Party. I suppose IF things got so freaking bad that IF Obama's numbers were really in the toilet by next fall, and IF Dem wise men were able to persuade him to withdraw his candidacy for the sake of the party, then MAYBE I could see Hillary jump in as the party "savior". I just don't see Hillary getting in unless BO first pulled an LBJ to declare he wasn't running so he could (in a face-saving measure) focus on fixing the economy or whatever. Not that I like Hillary, but she was dead on about BO.

[Ditch]

How about the 3 am phone call with no one there to answer it. And have flashbacks to Obama the Great One on vacation while the phone is ringing.

[steve]

Obama has been a massive failure. Hillary should get in and soon.

[Garreyy]

Weiner for president 2012!

[Garreyy]

Weiner for president 2012!

[I do not buy spin doctors]

Hillary is behind urging Obama to get involved in Libya, and this opinion piece is pure spin doctor SEO traffic grab. Hillary Clinton has made it clear she does not want to run for political office again, and wants to move on to other things in her life. Also, yes her approval rating may be high now, but the comparisons you make to Obama are ridiculous. Comparing approval of the Iraq War in 2003 to Obama's approval rating today makes no sense. Approval ratings are lower because of a bad economy, not because of Obama wanting to go into Libya. So here we had Obama showing restraint for wanting to get involved in Libya and Hillary urging him to do so. Now this spin doctor opinion piece makes it sound like Hillary and Obama are fighting. She is his secretary of state and number two leader in this country. If you think she was not behind our involvement in Libya, you must not keep up with any news.

[Sarah]

I laughed out loud a few times in reading this article. I'm no Hillary fan (even less of an Obama fan), but I have to say that Hillary has gained a little respect from me these past two years, and she'll gain even more if she runs against Obama.

Well written article!

[areaTwo]

The REPUBLICANS are hoping this happens because on their SIDE they have alot of DRAMA with Sarah Palin and company, So they would luv for a HILLARY VS OBAMA part 2.. that would FRACTURE the PARTY beyond belief and cost them the election.
The 40 plus MILLION blacks in this country would see Hillary move as BACKSTABBING along with his other SUPPORTERS who are young.And WITHOUT that demographics Hillary would LOSE in a GENERAL ELECTION.

[Bob Kidera]

There is one flaw in the conclusions drawn from the data that Mr. Phillips presents: If the public is negative about the Libyan involvement, why would they turn to Hillary? SHE is the one who pressed for this administration to do what it did. If the Libyan situation turns into a true debacle, it would be as much her fault as Obama's. Why would people have more faith in her judgement about foreign policy? If Libya turns sour it is the Republican Party that will benefit, not Hillary Clinton.

[Jim]

Ask Hillary about her rapport will The Peoples Republic of China. How about Vince Foster. Her and her hubby would need a skeleton dumpster to clean out their closet. She should be in jail for Whitewater alone.

[Mafe]

I am a conservative with a libertarian bent. Mostly a fiscal conservative. 99% of the time I vote Republican. Not to be too understated here I am a Texas Conservative. I would have voted for Hillary over McCain in 08.

I do not agree with every position but I have to admit she has proven to be remarkably competent and I have come to believe she is a true statesman. Those qualities are so much more important than agreeing on every single issue. I really believe Hillary is completely dedicated to this country. Obama, not so much.

[Shinea]

She is the ONLY person in this administration that is even remotely qualified to be President. Thank God she's there, even if only the Sec. of State. I shudder to think where America would be right now if there were not at least ONE person in the administration with the brass ones to get the job done.

[robert m. simon]

I look forward to her running as this will surely weaken and divide the Commun....I mean Democratic Party...hehehehehe

[robert m. simon]

Actually,the last 4 Presidents should be in prison for violating the spirit and substance of the Constitution....Anything that weakens the Commun....I mean Democratic Party helps America.

[harry]

If Hilary were to win in a primary blacks wouldn't show up. Doesn't matter really... it would just be a bigger defeat.

[Sue]

Hillary supporters probably won't vote for a Republican in 2012---they will just stay home!!

[EX-democrat]

I am furious at the democrat party. Hillary and Obama are both pawns for the globalist party. Now that Hillary and Obama has started this unconstitutional war they are toast. JFK was my last president. I hope Ron Paul runs in 2012 as an Independent, if not, I will write him in.

[Mike Griffith]

What a dumb thing to write, saying that "If Libya turns into a full blown disaster" Hillary will have an opening to run and win. She's the idiot who convinced Obama to go into Libya in the first place.