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Obama 2012 support slips; Now, any generic Republican ties him

Obama Winning the Future sign 2-3-11

President Obama's done a lot of talking recently about Winning the Future. Trouble is, he's not. Politically.

At this moment -- 57% of the way through a first term with only 628 days left until the 2012 presidential election -- the Democrat can only tie any conceivable Republican candidate.

The GOP doesn't even need a frontrunner to catch the incumbent of the most powerful political office in the world. No wonder Obama's bringing fresh blood into the White House and shipping out aides to kick-start the billion-dollar campaign back in Chicago.

A new Gallup Poll finds Obama a little worse off in that generic presidential ballot category this year than he was last year at this time.

And -- this'll get the ex-state senator chewing the nicotine gum faster -- the new Gallup numbers show Obama significantly behind the same standing of his Republican predecessor,  that Texas guy who still refuses to reciprocate Obama's criticism of hiObama enjoys a good Laugh, files two terms.

Last February Obama led a generic Republican 44-42. This February, after the invisible "Recovery Summer" and Democrats' historic midterm election shellacking, any Republican ties Obama at 45-45.

At this same calendrical point in George W. Bush's first term, the Republican led any Democrat 47-39. And Bush went on to win a second term against a Massachusetts senator who docks his yacht in Rhode Island. (Anyone remember how Bush won that year? He took the 20 electoral votes of Ohio, which explains Obama's frequent forays there.)

Gallup's numbers show Obama maintaining his voter strength among blacks. Women still prefer him more than men do.

But the youth vote, so crucial to the Democratic ticket last time, is evaporating. Going into the 2008 election Obama had 63% of the registered voters aged 18 to 34. Today, he's got only 51%. Likewise, Obama's support among 35-to-54-year-olds has crumbled from 53% in 2008 to 43% today.

Of course, a lot can change before Nov. 6, 2012. In 1984, Republican Ronald Reagan roared back from 1983 disapproval to win the largest electoral vote victory in American history over another Democratic ex-senator. But Reagan rode atop the kind of surging economy that few experts see erupting in the next 20 months.

Obama's contemporary vulnerability could also lure a surfeit of ambitious candidates into the late-starting field for the GOP nomination in Tampa, prompting an unusually divisive and expensive primary season on the right side of the political aisle. At the moment though, the would-be Republican candidates could take turns, it seems, and still tie Obama.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Jason Reed / Reuters; Larry Downing / Reuters (a happy Obama).

Comments () | Archives (37)

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While the so-called "generic Republican" might beat Obama, there is no such animal. If you look closely, the GOP, or really the conservative movement, is so badly splintered that it has no chance of producing a candidate that can win. They are going to tear themselves apart.

i hope he loses and goes to jail with george sorries the muslims will
set off a dirty bomb some where this year and it will be his falt

Obama is in trouble because he passed the largest entitlement program in US history at a time when the economy is stuck on high unemployment and massive deficits. Also, most Americans don't take well to the loss of freedom that Obamacare implies.

Since 2004 the US debt has increased by 7 trillion, and about half of that during Obama's watch. Yet the president is proposing continued abiet reduced deficit. Part of his deficit reduction proposal includes 1.6 trillion of tax increases that are real, while his debt reduction elements are smoke and mirrors. The president remains a big spender at a time when America is heading toward bankruptcy.

President Obama should understand that economic vitality comes from letting people and businsses keep more of their money. It does not come from government intervention.

For Obama to be a viable candidate in 2012 he would have to request congress repeal Obamacare and seriously cut spending and taxation.

1 Nov 2010
Obama’s GAME (Great American Marxist Experiment) is over, a failure. Marxism goes against the basic human instincts that freedom is a natural, God-given right, that what you make (or earn) is yours to keep, that family, not government, is the basic social unit. Democrats have historically been the party to raise taxes and increase the size of government, but Obama, Reid, and Pelosi have taken these mistaken policies to the extreme. Republicans, Independents, and Tea Party members will now be forever vigilant of the Left and we will vote.
Tom Johnson, Largo, Florida

PS 19 Jan 2011
Obamacare is illegal. The original, very short, Commerce Clause is too loosely interpreted. Obamacare will NOT reduce total US health care costs by bringing an additional 30-50,000,000 people into the health care system, especially without tort reform. Democrats do NOT believe in the US Constitution as the supreme law of the land.
1. Federal health care is not one of the enumerated powers in the US Constitution, therefore, Obamacare is illegal. This only matters if you believe that the USA is a nation of laws and that the US Constitution is the supreme law of the land. It is clear that Democrats do NOT believe in the US Constitution. Obama supposedly taught US Constitutional law for 12 years, so he must understand the US Constitution. Since health care, as he signed it into law, is illegal, the only conclusion left is that Obama, and the Democrats who voted for health care, do not believe in the US Constitution.
2. The commerce clause was never intended to have such broad scope. These powers have been made up by the Democrats out of thin air.

PS 29 Jan 2011
Obama’s soaring rhetoric has resulted in soaring deficits, soaring gov’t spending, and soaring unemployment.

PS 15 February 2011
My daughter just informed me and my wife that our granddaughter, who is 15, in high school and an excellent student, single and has no child, has just received 3 pieces of mail today: 1. an info pack from a college, 2. an AARP card (?), and 3. a form from the US Census Bureau asking for information on her baby (non-existent). Seems like everything is OK to me!

Any candidate from opposing parties will have to be a very strong individual to defeat BHO in 2012. Right now there seems to be no one of that quality, and it may wind up being an unknown at the last moment, if one rises to the occasion at all.

Yeah but Obama won't face a "generic" republican.,,The REAL republicans he'll likely face are all a bunch of dunce caps, flip-floppers, or rabid right wing idealgues....Mitt Romney, who was pro-choice before he became pro-life,AND who signed a similar HCR as governor of MA in 2006 will have a real difficult time overcoming that...Furthermore, he has no personality and his Mormon religion (fair or unfair) won't help him....You can't beat somebody w/nobody and the republican have NOBODY...

But whats to say republicans will nominate anyone "generic"? They might run another atom bomb like McCain.

Now. Take away the outlandish RACIST Black Vote (those who are only voting for him BECAUSE of the colour of his skin) and tell us how many votes he gets.
The Blacks in this country spit on MLK's legacy, more than any group in this country.
"I have a DREAM that one day, my children will be judged NOT by the colour of their skin, but by the CONTENT OF THEIR CHARACTER."
This is why they are at the bottom of the heap. This is why every other group has passed them bye.
Obama could NUKE Ohio, and he would still get 95% of the Black Vote.
Enjoy your Ghetto. Cause you ain't never gonna leave it.

Opposing candidates to Obama in 2012 are so weak and carry 'no loud squeak' at all. Most of them are bland, recycled, unappealing, and no strength. If one rises to the occasion at all it may have to be an 'unknown' !!

That is what he gets for dividing the country. He is not looking after Americans, he is looking after hussein odumba himself. He clearly beats out jimmi cahta as the worst president in US history.

Thomas Donahue, head of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on the uncertainty, mandates, taxes and new regulation put upon business by the healthcare legislation..."it's a job killer"

Obama's best chance for election is if the SCOTUS finds the healthcare bill unconstitutional. Otherwise the economy will do him in.

This man is not a leader and many people are coming to that conclusion. I did not vote for him but was hoping he would succeed--for the sake of our country. He has hijacked our economy for the past two years, projected weakness on the world stage and now refuses to lead on spending cuts and entitlement reform that is sorely needed. I think in 2012, razzle dazzle and personality will not cut it--on either side. The next president will be someone who is a proven problem solver with ideas that can move our country forward.

Unlike Obama, Reagan was not an empty suit. Nor did he increase spending while using gimmicks to claim a spending cut. Whether you liked him or not, Reagan leveled with the American people. His statements required no parsing. We knew where he stood.

Obama has lost the youth, and the middle, because he has utterly failed to govern as the pragmatic somewhat left of center president he promised to be. You can fool all of the people some of the time...

I really don't care who wins the Republican nomination, I just want Obama out. He is destroying our country. He WILL NOT stop spending.

Can any president win with an unemployment rate above 10%? I think not.

I am not an Obama fan, but only because defending some politicians over others is like defending one criminal over another. That said, if the election was held today Obama would easily win a 2nd term. And that says more about the state of the republican party than it does for Obama.

As long as Palin, Gingrich, Romney, Beck, Limbaugh, Bachman, and the other slew of complete idiots are sucking the air out of their own party, Obama has no competition. That part is not up for debate by anyone with an IQ over 85 who pays moderate attention to the news.

Im not trying to defend Obama, but all the people in this comments section clearly have no sense of history. Deficits and debts ballooned under Bush. He is the one that stared all this nonsense. His economic policies lead to the recession. He lied to the American people and spent a trillion dollars invading the wrong country. His people devised a program to allow the Gov't to spy on innocent, hard-working, tax-paying citizens. Yet you blame Obama only? That is what makes so many people look stupid and/or racist.

Our nation's problems wont go away until everyone accepts that Obama, Bush, Clinton, Reagan...and so on, are ALL to blame. They laugh behind closed doors while laughing at us all.

If any "generic" Republican can tie him then why is Sarah Palin polling so far behind? or for that matter Newt Gingrich?

The problem here is "generic" Republican won't be on the presidential ballot in 2012. It'll be a Republican with a history and media presence that most voters have already formed an opinion about (My bet's on Romney over Haley Barbour or Tim Pawlenty).

And sometimes, the devil you know is better than the one you don't. It's how Bush won his re-election by campaigning on the fear of changing direction in the middle of a war.

While the Republican Primary field is large (and thus presents a lot of choices) that may not necessarily be to their advantage as all presidential hopefuls will be campaigning for the same set of funds from donors. That, plus a likely bruising primary battle to "out-Reagan" each other on conservative core issues will damage any candidate looking to get those critical independent votes in the swing states that ultimately decide a general election.

What is the unemployment rate among blacks?
Has Obama improved inner city schools in any way?
Did he do anything for Chicago's schools while he was
a Community Organizer, then Illinois and US Senator?

Racial and tribal solidarity is an ancient custom, but isn't it time
for everyone to base their votes on facts, actual accomplishments
and the content of one's character, rather than his skin pigmentation?

Why not keep him around long enough for a total collapse of the economy. That would assure that the Demo-communist party would be finished for good. The life of a Demo-commie-crat politician wouldn't be worth a bucket of puke after a 2nd Teleprompter term.

A vote for barack hussein obama is like a vote for the muslim brotherhood. They too, hate America.

Take heart, Democrats... since this is only a "generic Republican", you obviously haven't had the chance to slander and libel him or her specifically yet, so all you have going for your side is the standard racist/ Nazi rhetoric that you apply to all Republicans.

I'm sure that once the field narrows some, you'll be able to use your usual tactics of spreading lies and disinformation while suppressing any information about your candidate, with most of the media's wholehearted support.

Why should anyone vote for a president that goes around the world bowing to America's enemies and snubbing our allies? Obama has failed to lead and govern. He, Pelosi and Reid are the worse so-called leaders I've ever seen.

We NEED Sarah Palin to be our next President. She will easily PWN Obozo in 2012 and she will usher in an era of greatness never before seen for 8 years. Sarah Palin will be our greatest president of all times and we will never have another man, minority or liberal be president again. Every president and vice-president will all be conservative white women.

Democrats will continue to deny the undeniable up until their beloved O Man goes down in an epic defeat, likely losing 40 of the 50 states and taking a beating in the electoral college. They only saw it coming near the end before last year's mid-terms and they are now suggesting that any GOP candidate will be too flawed to challenge The One. They fail to understand that the polls don't nearly reflect the extent to which his support has evaporated. As someone who lives in NYC among the most rabid liberals on the face of the earth this is clear to me, for you no longer see liberals rising to defend the administration and most would prefer just to mutter something and walk away rather than engage in a political debate. Other Democrats previously known as Reagan Democrats, who exist in large numbers throughout the nation, are just waiting for a GOP candidate like Mitch Daniels or Tim Pawlenty to emerge as the leader. Competent, polished, reasonable administrators who have shown proven management and leadership abilities and have clearly stated ideas, firm principles and an understanding of what governing truly means will run roughshod over the princely prattler of empty rhetoric, moral uncertainty, indecisiveness and naive assumptions. There is a great reckoning coming in 2012. Liberalism, Progressiveism, or whatever the Left wants to call themselves and redefine themselves has one foot in the grave and is on life support. It will soon die as even Governors in California and NY realize. Politicians will save themselves by adopting and adapting. They will still use the Democratic moniker, but their policies will be shaped by the right due to the clear and undeniable failure of policies born and nurtured by the left.

This author most likely knows (and if he didn't, the commenters on this board have now educated him) a "generic party member" consistently does better than a specific person. Likewise he should know that every single specific republican loses to him if the election were held today. Quite badly in most cases (he beats Palin in TN (!) for goodness sake). Either the author is completely ignorant of the subject matter about which he is writing, in which case he should not be writing on it. Or (more likely) he knows this, and is simply yet another GOP side-(freak-) show trying to make a name for himself.

Obama's problem is not the poll numbers, but his agenda. The public has become to informed and insistent that government shrink and shrink big. Obama's recent budget proposal is not a serious one and continues to expand government as the answer to all our problems. Sorry, but the public isn't buying it any Is Obama A

They are one and the same. The Plutocrats own Congress and Wall Street and top 1% Corporatists, who own 90% of the wealth - many still with their hands in the Treasury getting unlimited taxpayer money, own the rest, including the President.

It seems like Americans don't like think that a president should have attributes such as equivocation, appeasement, projecting weakness abroad and utter lack of fiscal discipline. Go figure.

Is Obama's "vulnerability" attracting a large field of Republicans, or is the vulnerability in the list of current Republican candidates making anybody walking along think that they too could have a shot. I agree with what has been said. The "generic Republican" candidate does not exist. None of the current offerings could beat Obama. That is what tells Repub's that at this point anybody can run against the current "front-runners".

The election is probably up to the GOP to lose, but they did a bang up job of running John "Rat Meat" McCain against Obozo in 2008. Unless they get a solid, on track, organized achievable message, we will be treated to four more years of Mr. Bungle. The real key is to dismantle and defund the social corruptocracy legislated by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. Overall things look really grim for the average American, whose real income is about to be decimated by the destruction of the dollar engineered by Golden Timmy and his Friends at the Federal Reserve and the total lack of fiscal restraint shown by either party. No wonder the Chinese are laughing at us behind our backs.


Congressman Ron Paul won the CPAK straw poll for candidate for 2010 and 2011 presidential run beating out Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Indiana congressman Mike Pence.
Congressman Ron Paul was the only one of the Congressman and Senators to have everyone back his bill to AUDIT THE FEDERAL RESERVE and have it passed.
He has the support of the TEA Party and the national armed forces.

I have been thinking about this whole bailout deal a lot. I am not going over what the bail out is about, you guys already know and if you don't just search the topic in the search bar.. Anyway, instead of giving the banks that threw us into this mess the 600 billion why not cut every American Homeowner a check for a million bucks?? Think about it.. Every homeowner gets a million dollars. First thing, debt will be paid off. Most Americans are busting their butts trying to pay off debt. With a million dollars, there is more then enough to pay off ALL of your debt and the credit industry will be back to normal.. Next, pay off the mortgages. Now we have the banks back in the right financial state without giving them ALL of the money from the bailout...and people will be able to keep their homes. Better yet, people will be buying homes, so the real estate industry will not be suffering anymore. In addition to that, the construction industry will be a good place to make jobs because people will be building homes as well as buying. Now, I don't know about you guys, but after squaring my debt away, paying off/buying a new home, and getting a car that actually runs.. I'm going shopping!! The economy would BOOM if everyone in the country had enough money to shop.. I'm not talking go to the store and spend a hundred bucks.. I mean SHOP. Stocks would soar and the American economy would be back to normal. Not only that, but the stores and such would need more employees due to the rise in shoppers. That would provide jobs for everyone. More cars would need to be made because the demand would go up, so factories would be looking for more help. It would just be an all around good deal.

"...Furthermore, he has no personality and his Mormon religion (fair or unfair) won't help him...." ********** After having a Muslim in the WH, ANY religion - including Mormon - will be regarded as being better, will be seen as an improvement.

It's a mystery to me why Huckabee continues to come out near the top of straw polls. The guy is a motor-mouth. I think those who are polled are just mesmerized by his gift of gab. He a smooth talker. And it's unfathomable to think the American voters would once again be blinded by - and elect yet again - another smooth talker. Haven't we learned our lesson??

Roosevelt Vs. Obama

What did President Teddy Roosevelt say?
"Speak softly and carry a big stick."
What does Barack Hussein Obama say?
"Jigaboo for Jihad and not for Jesus!"
Also "Fight for Allah and not for America!"
Want facts re our lawless Hypocrite-in-Chief?
Just Google "Obama Fulfilling the Bible" !


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About the Columnist
A veteran foreign and national correspondent, Andrew Malcolm has served on the L.A. Times Editorial Board and was a Pulitzer finalist in 2004. He is the author of 10 nonfiction books and father of four. Read more.
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