No Obama steam, Gallup's generic congressional poll finds; Republican lead holding strong 15 days out

Despite optimistic talk and  President Obama's nearly constant transcontinental campaign carbon footprint, a new Gallup Poll today finds Republicans holding a strong lead in the generic congressional poll among registered voters or likely voters, in big ballot turnouts and lesser ones for the Nov. 2 voting.

With but two weeks left before Obama's first midterm verdict, for the third straight week the Gallup Poll finds registered voters choosing the GOP over the Democrats, 48% to 43%. Among the now more important category of likely voters, Republicans have built a lead ranging from 11 points to 17 points.

According to Gallup, the wide disparity in the findings indicates Nancy Pelosi's days as House speaker are numbered, indicating a likely turnover of control to Republicans, at....

...least in that body. The GOP needs to gain 39 more seats to hold a majority in the legislative chamber where all financial legislation originates.

Some polls indicate the party's gain may be more like 55. The largest turnaround in U.S. history occurred in 1894 during the Cleveland administration when Republicans gained 130 out of a then-total 357 House seats.

The president and his Delaware sidekick have taken to the road, separately and together, in an effort to rouse Democrats, who are dispirited and less motivated to bother voting, according to polls, which Republicans have led for months.

Obama plans a multistate swing out west this month to help Nevada's Harry Reid, California's Barbara Boxer and Washington's Patty Murray, all embattled incumbent Democratic senators.

In recent days Obama has traveled to Delaware to help Chris Coons, who's supposed to be annihilating Republican Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell, to Cleveland and Columbus for Gov. Ted Strickland and House candidates and to Boston for incumbent Gov. Deval Patrick. There, an angry Obama encountered hecklers over his gay rights actions, or lack of same (see photo above).

He's already been to Pennsylvania to help Joe Sestak, who beat Arlen Specter in the primaries but now trails the GOP's Pat Toomey, and to Florida where Democrat Kendrick Meek trails both independent Charlie Crist and Republican Marco Rubio in the open Senate race.

The encouraging Nov. 2 outlook for Republicans is a rare perfect storm of events: a president's first midterm election, always tough except for George W. Bush, combined with a stubbornly sour economy and unemployment rate despite promises to the contrary, and recent Democrat successes, which gave them whopping congressional majorities.

Now, those several dozen Democrats who won marginal districts in 2006 and 2008 have supported unpopular Obama legislation and face extinction; many have taken to running against the president, his policies and even Pelosi.

Can Democrats still salvage the election? Gallup's historical numbers indicate they might reduce their losses but not eliminate them. In 2006, a 23-point Democrat generic congressional lead in early October dwindled by election day to 11- and 7-point leads among registered and likely voters. But the party still won back both houses.

In 1994 in Bill Clinton's first midterm elections, when the GOP seized control of both houses for the first time in four decades, Republicans led among registered by three points and by 12 points among likely voters in mid-October. On election day, the parties were tied among the registered and the GOP led by seven among likely voters. But both houses still flipped.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Click here to join nearly 54,000 global readers who follow The Ticket with Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or follow us @latimestot. Our Facebook Like page is over here. We're also available here on Kindle now.

Photos: J. Scott Applewhite / Associated Press (Obama responds to hecklers at a Boston Democratic political rally 10-16-10, top, and stresses a point, bottom).

Comments

[Mark Thompson]

Obama is " The Liar In Chief"
Biden is a bonifide numbskull
Pelosi is a limosine liberal
Reid is on another planet

We were all duped into believing in this BS known as Hope & Change, only to see more Washington insiders, lobbyist, and business more than usual from Obama's handouts to Wall Street to attacking the average Joe. Remember November!!

[Marcuscassius]

Lookit that Mark Thompson can call all sorts of people names. And like all Republicans that call names, has no plan to make anything better. No way of correcting the rotten mistakes they made before and nothing positive for anything or anyone. Just hate a nd a slacker mentality. Go Mark Go.

[Hawaii Joe]

I agree with Mark Johnson...
Hawaii, full on union workers, but lets not forget the hardworking immergrants that came from Vietnam,Philipines,Korea etc. whom have worked hard and has their own buisness in stores and restaurants, we want to get out of the big government bullies, when the union was gathering yelling in groups (whom were lot of local boys) I thought i was from a different country. Hawaii must keep the Aloha spirit, but something happened just when Obama came to office, someone "turned off the music" we are numb..

[dom youngross]

Anymore, President Obama is straight out of director John Carpenter's "They Live." After November you won't need the special sunglasses. And while Obama is last-ditching it all over the country, David Axelrod is burning the midnight oil trying to figure out how to spin upcoming democrat losses in the House and Senate as yet another confirmation of Obama and his policies.

[AngryMobVoter]

Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and the rest of the Democrats in Congress still do not get it and probably never will:

The American people and American small business want lower taxes for EVERYONE while Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and the rest of the Democrats will raise taxes on some and probably everyone to pay for the reckless spending they put in place.

The American people and American small business want smaller government while Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and the rest of the Democrats have and plan to continue to greatly increase the size of government.

The American people and American small business want less government intervention into their lives and private affaires while Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and the rest of the Democrats will continue to expand onerous regulation which raises costs, reduces the standard of living, and inhibits job growth.

The American people and American small business did not want the so-called healthcare reform while Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and the rest of the Democrats continue to ignore how this law will cost the American people and small businesses more, reduce choice in healthcare, and restrict access to healthcare for many people.

The current Administration and current Congress must realize a large portion of the American people are fed up with high taxes, big government, and obtrusive government meddling in the private lives of people, business, and the economy. The American people what lower taxes, lower government spending, and smaller government.

As long as our government continues the reckless spending, high taxes, and unprecedented meddling with businesses, we cannot expect real long term growth.

The Congress and current Administration have put the country on a course of reckless government spending that has mortgaged the future of all Americans especially future generations. The only way to fix this long term structural problem is to create a pro-growth atmosphere for business. To do this we must reduce taxes NOW. How many different taxes does a business or individual pay on a regular basis? We must eliminate number and complexity of all these taxes and reduce the tax burden.

We also need to end the micro-management of business and the economy. Until we GREATLY reduce the tax burden on business and consumers and remove the senseless regulations that accomplish little in relation to the cost they impose, our future is bleak.

REMEMBER IN NOVEMBER...VOTE THEM OUT!!!

[robert_PS_CA]

Republican policies over the last decade, & the cost of two wars, added far more to the deficit than initiatives approved by the Democratic Congress since 2006, giving reason to be dubious of campaign promises.

Estimates by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office & independent fiscal experts show $1.1 trillion cost over the next 10 years of the Medicare Part-D drug program, which the Republican-controlled Congress adopted in 2003. It adds more to the deficit than the combined costs of the Bush Wall Street bailout, & the Obama-led stimulus & health care law.

DEBT GROWTH:
• REAGAN (R)-8 YRS--------------189%
• BUSH I (R)-4 YRS-----55%
• CLINTON(D)-8 YRS-36%
• BUSH II(R)-8 YRS-------89%
• OBAMA, 1st fiscal year ended 9/30/10, figures unfinished. Obama prior year was Bush budget & includes the Bush Wall Street bailouts, Med Part-D, & off budget wars.

Democrats spend less, AND create more US jobs. Give Dems more time to turn the ship, & with less obstruction.