Americans now back to an even split over control of Congress -- and a plurality favors another Obama term

Not that you'd know it from President Obama's constant cross-country campaigning recently, but the Democrat is not on any ballot one week from today.

He has the luxury -- unlike so many fellow Democrats in Congress -- of looking longer term. And regardless of what happens in either or both houses on Capitol Hill on Nov. 2, from the bullet-proof windows of Obama's Oval Office things are looking pretty good, if you study the latest poll numbers and a little bit of history.

A pair of new Pew Research/National Journal Congressional Connection polls out last night belies all the talk of Republican voter enthusiasm and a political tsunami, which is politics for "early retirement."

One Pew survey shows American registered voters are evenly divided now about what would be better for the country -- a Republican-controlled Congress (32%), a Democrat-controlled Congress (32%) or makes no difference (30%). This appears to conflict with numerous generic congressional polls this fall showing a lopsided intention to vote for a Republican member of Congress.

Among next Tuesday's likely voters the numbers don't change that much -- 38%, 34% and 23%. So much it seems for all that 1894 talk.

As we wrote here earlier this month, whichever party controls either house, Obama is....

...well-situated politically. If Democrats maintain their control from the 2006 midterms, he will appear to have pulled off an upset and can drive his liberal legislative agenda. If Republicans win one or, less likely, both houses, he has a 2012 whipping boy to blame for the ensuing two-year gridlock.

The new Pew numbers also indicate mixed and certainly not overwhelmingly enthusiastic voter support for some possible Republican policies --  allowing more offshore oil drilling (55%-39% approve), allowing private Social Security accounts (51%-36% approve), repealing Obama's healthcare bill (49%-39% approve) and passing a Constitutional amendment to bar children of illegal immigrants from automatically becoming U.S. citizens (46%-46%).

Another Pew study finds that without a clear Republican alternative at the moment, more Americans want Obama to seek a second term (47%) than don't (42%).

Those numbers are about the same as they were around Bill Clinton's first midterm election, when Republicans won control of both houses of Congress for the first time in four decades. Obama's second term number is actually better than that of Ronald Reagan at a comparable time in his first term.

Both Clinton and Reagan, of course, benefitted from economic recoveries and captured easy victories, with Reagan's 49-state 1984 landslide becoming the largest electoral vote total ever, 525-13. Another 3,800 votes in Al Franken's state and Reagan would have won all 50 states, or 57, according to Obama's campaign total.

The crucial distinction this time is that the partisan gap -- the difference between the many Democrats and the few Republicans who want him to re-run -- is 71 points, much larger than the 46-point gap between the two parties for Reagan at this time in his first term and more than twice the 34-point partisan splits for Clinton and George H.W. Bush.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Just click here now to follow The Ticket via Twitter alerts of each new Ticket item. Or follow us @latimestot. Our Facebook Like page is over here. We're also available on Kindle now. Use the ReTweet buttons below to share this item with friends.

Photo: Pete Souza / White House; Associated Press.

Comments

[Barry Hussein]

No doubt those poll numbers were cherry picked in urban areas where the traitor-in-chief's support is likely to be the highest. I guess we will just have to see on election day what people really think about this incompetent, arrogant Congress and this ideological and racially polarizing creature contaminating the White House.

[john]

Go Dems Go...in November !

[Brittanicus]

VOTING DEMOCRAT IS A VOTE FOR A 2.6 TRILLION DOLLAR AMNESTY

A vote for any Democrats is a vote for—AMNESTY. A vote for Amnesty, is promoting a rise in—spiraling TAXES. Voting for Senators Reid, Boxer, and any hidden Liberal, is a vote for loss of our countries sovereignty. Since the inception of the Obama administration, our rights as citizens have eroded away. This is a sample of what Senator Harry Reid has in store for us, if he is reelected? An AMNESTY--for 13 to 20 million illegal aliens, with a price tag of 2.6 Trillion dollars to process each individual and subsidize their welfare programs, according to the analysts at the Heritage Foundation. Nationals send approximately $60 billion annually out of the country in remittances Western Union, Wells Fargo, and other banks, plus an estimate $113 billion dollars at the local level of government for public benefits. Harry Reid voted to continuously fund Sanctuary cities and States, so did Senator Barbara Boxer of California.

Harry Reid and the majority of democrats crashed American-English as the recognized language of this country, and voted for illegal aliens to participate in our wilting Social Security System, placing Senior citizens pensions at risk. Senator Reid, Boxer and the largest proportion of Lib-Democrats voted equally, to what top Democrats wanted every time and that is killer Immigration Reform. Dems and Republicans neglected the very substantial laws of the 1986 Immigration Control and Reform Act specifically illegal hiring where a business was concerned. This is sheer madness when his Nevada has the largest proportion of jobless Americans, the highest rate of bankruptcies and home foreclosures. Another fact is that Reid voted yes, to continue public entitlements, including unemployment benefits to foreign nationals. Reid did nothing to stem the movement of discount labor into Nevada, during the real estate boom.

Contractors used these people, cutting off the rights of citizens and green card holders to eligible jobs. Reid must have turned senile when he states that there are no illegal aliens in Nevada. As with many Border States the giant inflow of illegal labor, the crippling economy and the need for sustenance is now devouring public benefit dollars. In the last ten years Dem-Libs have failed to complete the real DOUBLE SECTION fence along the full length of the border with Mexico, but sued Arizona for trying to defend its citizens from overflow of monetary illegal aliens, criminals and even foreign grown terrorists. Even now back-door Amnesty is going on in courtrooms, especially in Texas where ICE is releasing non-criminal aliens back to our communities. Senator Reid, along with Barbara Boxer challenged E-Verify, the local policing law 287 (G) yet pushing to award tuition to children of illegal aliens for a college and state universities education, when American students cannot even afford the escalating fees.

GOOGLE--"On the issues" website, and then decide your voting preference. In addition GOOGLE—illegal alien costs. I'm a Tea Party Blogger, Independent voter, National Sovereignty proponent and will be watchful of organizations canvassers’ similar to ACORN, which registered illegal aliens to vote, as well as deceased people and even fictitious people living in vacant lots. GOOGLE--Voter fraud, it's a crime against US citizens and naturalized Americans and as a federal offense is a prison conviction. Incidentally Tea Party people do not genuflect to either party and are strongly opposed to either ideology.

Gubernatorial Jerry Brown and many other Governors stretched from one state capitol to another, including the Mayor Gavin Newsom of San Francisco and are--ALL--for approving Sanctuary City policies. Then most definitely Jerry Brown has proved himself to be--PRO AMNESTY from his past record. He can join the far left Democrats or a proportion of elected officials, Mayors, Chief of Police who are from Liberal fringe hiding beneath a cloak of respectability. Jerry has stated very clearly he wants a path to citizenship for those in the country illegally. Jerry also opposes Arizona's new SB1170 immigration law. Says it's not the state's job to crackdown on employers who hire illegal immigrants. Then unlike Whitman, he also supports the Dream Act for students who are illegal immigrants. In other words he is in keeping with most Lib-Democrats, who would infuse this country with uneducated, non-skilled labor and the families, which American taxpayers usually end up paying for and their children.

Once here they begin to have numerous children, who receive instant citizenship and an extremely expensive $$$ weight dumped on citizens and residents. Whitman stated we should have a guest worker program for agriculture. Whereas Whitman wants a secure border, before determining what should be done with those now who entered the country illegally, also wants a crackdown on employers who hire illegal immigrants. Supports Arizona's right to enact its new immigration law, but opposes it here. Trouble with Meg's idea of a Guest Worker program, the farm labor already here when Reagan signed the Simpson/ Mazzoli bill, deserted the farms and entered into the mainstream of the American labor force; in addition it was overrun with fraud. Any commitment to another Guest Worker program must be considered as temporary, with no possibility as a Path to citizenship. Dodging the Left wing press is understandable, specially when they demonize her every word. Who wouldn't want to disappear from the sight, when the Huffington Press, Washington, Post, Los Angeles Times and the New York Times and the left fringe media is on your heels.

[force]

I do not believe that. Who are the ones using the race card, speaking hate demonizing their opponents? THE DEMOCRATS. In two years, Barack Obama has divided this country. He ignores the majority of the American people, forces this against that, them against those while still blaming Bush and the Repubs for HIS bad economy and HIS out of control spending. Watch for voter fraud in this election. That is the only way the Demos will win.

[Se]

Liars
Cheats
illegals
Felons
Anti-Americans
People keeping others in slavery, all are a large part of the Democrat Party.

[Seni]

I am tired of Democrats like Obama, Reid and Pelosi. They have brainwashed us Blacks too long, telling us we are poor, live in the ghettos, can't get educated, etc. But don't worry they say, the Democrats will give you free housing, welfare, healthcare, food stamps, and all you need to help you exist. Wake up Black People! We can not be free and get out of poverty until we get an education and become independent from these handouts. Democrats are not our friends, they are our slave masters.

[Dunn Jackson]

President Obama has it made. If the republicans take the House (which I think that they won't), and try to repeal the Health bill and replace it with one of their own, I am willing to bet that President Obama won't veto it because he will have a bipartison Health Care bill. The republicans have fallen right into the President's trap. If he had not addressed the problems with healthcare, the "just say no" republicans never would have brought the issue on the House floor. If they decide to not replace it, they would run ragged going into 2012 because that is what they promised. If they come up with a decent bill, President Obama will get all the credit just like President Clinton got with the surplus that he gave to President Bush. Nobody ever give any credit to Congress. Any way you cut it the President can't lose.