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10-point Republican lead on generic congressional ballot now largest in 68 years: Gallup

a Republican Rainbow in new Gallup congressional poll

President Obama told New Orleans on Sunday that five years after Hurricane Katrina he was sticking with them in their endless recovery.

But it was Republicans who got the rainbow today, a historic new Gallup Poll showing the party of Lincoln has now built a whopping 10-point lead -- 51 to 41 -- among registered voters over Obama's Democrats in the revealing generic congressional ballot for the Nov. 2 elections.

That's by far the largest margin ever earned by Republicans since Gallup began tracking such a predictive political indicator in 1942. That was so long ago everything was in black-and-white and Joe Biden wasn't even a senator yet!

The 10-point lead is also twice as big as the five-point spread the GOP enjoyed going into the 1994 midterm elections under Democrat President Clinton when the GOP seized control of both houses of Congress for the first time in four decades.

Usually the numerical dominance of Democrats gives that party a....

...double-digit lead on this poll, the largest being a 37-point gap in 1974 when President Richard Nixon of California pioneered this new thing called presidential resignation.

Another poll rainbow for the GOP finds its party members now more than twice as enthusiastic about voting on Nov. 2 as the si se puede change agent's supporters.

According to Gallup's analysis, the size of the Republican lead even before Labor Day, combined with a stubbornly sour economy and worsening jobs numbers despite repeated administration promises to the contrary, suggests a historic "wave" election this fall.

However, a new Newsweek poll finds great hope for Democrats to avoid a "Midterm Bloodbath" because Obama's approval rating has only dropped one more point and, according to Newsweek's survey, 47% approve of the Democrat's job while only 45% disapprove. Also, in the last 16 months disapproval of Obama's successful growing of the federal deficit has only jumped 13 points from 45% to 58% now.

So it all comes down to which poll do you believe: the one by the troubled weekly magazine that was just sold for $1 to a 92-year-old businessman who's married to a Democratic congresswoman? Or the one by the 75-year-old, highly-respected professional polling organization?

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-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photos: Sean Gardner / Getty Images

 
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on july 20th gallup has the dems up 5, now they're saying the dems are down 10...this basically defines polling noise...the newest generic poll from rasmussen bounced back toward the Democrats a bit (showing them with a 6-point deficit)


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About the Columnist
A veteran foreign and national correspondent, Andrew Malcolm has served on the L.A. Times Editorial Board and was a Pulitzer finalist in 2004. He is the author of 10 nonfiction books and father of four. Read more.
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