How to explain Sarah Palin, low in the polls but high in endorsing success?

For someone who no longer holds elective office and has national poll numbers way down in the Dumpster with Nancy Pelosi, Sarah Palin sure seems to have a lot of advice-giving clout so far during this midterm election year.

Numerous candidates winning coveted endorsements from the former Alaska governor won in recent primaries, including two high-profile races on either coast involving GOP women. In South Carolina, state Rep. Nikki Haley credits Palin's imprimateur for thrusting her out of the primary pack and into the Republican nomination for governor to replace that weird fellow who's always flying off to Argentina.

In California, Palin's endorsement of business veteran, political neophyte Carly Fiorina vaulted her past a better-known ex-congressman for the GOP nomination to confront career politician and incumbent Barbara Boxer for one of the Golden state's longtime Democratic Senate seats on Nov. 2.

"The truth," says Haley, "is we had a movement in South Carolina. The movement was....

...not about being Republican. It is about being conservative. It is time elected officials remember who they work for. And it is time for the people to understand they are the ones in control." That's a very familiar commonsense conservative theme proclaimed by Palin.

So did Palin's campaigning for Haley matter? "Gov. Palin is great because she is a national figure that has gone out and taught people the power of their voice," Haley adds. "She has taught them the people are in charge. What we saw is while creeping up in the polls she absolutely gave us a boost when we needed it."

And Fiorina? "When we earned her endorsement, we saw support for Carly increase literally overnight," Julie Soderlund, Fiorina's deputy campaign manager told ABC News.

Additionally, recent polls indicate Sen. John McCain is pulling ahead in his Arizona primary battle where Palin campaigned for him.

Of course, not all of Palin's picks were victorious, notably Tim Burns in Pennsylvania, who also had the support of other prominent Republicans such as Newt Gingrich.

A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found the now-familiar Palin polarity with only a quarter of Americans saying they are comfortable with a Palin endorsement.

So, how to account for Palin's successes this year, especially since her methods, like her style, are so doggone unconventional -- shunning grandstand news conferences and the media to issue endorsements and statements on her Facebook page, for instance?

Who does stuff like that and how can it possibly work?

Whether that ever gets her elected to anything again, that's part of Palin's non-traditional brand, which in an era of profound distaste for establishment pols and many incumbents certainly helps set her apart from the pre-programmed, partisan suits Americans see maneuvering and mucking around to no particular end in Washington each day.

Now, that Journal poll was of Americans. Palin has been campaigning among Republicans, a subgroup that's always been her strength. Palin doesn't care about the DailyKos crowd and vice versa. And, not accidentally, conservative committed Republicans are the ones who turn out in primaries and midterm elections and will be the folks picking the GOP nominee in 2012.

Can you say decisive South Carolina primary after Iowa and New Hampshire? And assembling victory in such grassroots places depends on supporters' emotional commitment, like that of Maru Cohen, an El Salvador immigrant who's always worried about reliving the socialism of her Central American youth.

"I don't know if Sarah can win or even if she'll run," Cohen confided while clutching her copy of Palin's book, after positioning two others for better sales possibilities in a bookstore. "But she's so genuine and doesn't pull her punches. You get a sense that she's just like you, not in it for herself like all those other self-serving showboats who say such mean things about her."

Cohen also noted a strange thing over the 22 months since Palin burst on the U.S. political scene: The more opponents and commentators talk down Palin, the more Cohen finds herself admiring and cheering for the woman she calls by her first name, although Cohen's never even seen the former governor in person.

But that's just one person talking, right?

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo: Associated Press (Haley and Palin); Paul Connor / Associated Press (Palin and Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer).

Comments

[gahanson]

Palin's poll numbers are generally low since most polls over sample democrats. You have to remember that Gallup and some other pollsters, such as Public Policy Polling, had 0bama winning by 10 to 15 points, so the exact same reason. If you go back and study polling during the 2008 primaries, you'll find that to bolster 0bama in his fight with Hillary, many of these same polling outfits over polled blacks, so that they could use Hillary's poor polling numbers against her, and build up 0bama.

If you compare Palin's endorsement success rate to 0bama's endorsement success rate, she is way ahead, since almost everyone that 0bama has endorsed and/or campaigned for has lost.

The true test of Palin's strength will come in November. My bet is that most of those she has endorsed will win. Most of those 0bama endorses will lose.

BTW, how come no big articles analyzing Huckabee's endorsements. He endorsed DeVore in CA, Bauer in SC, and Vander Plaats in IA, all of whom lost.

[The Bell]

Explaining the Sarah Palin phenomenon is like explaining colon cancer without actually naming the surrounding body parts involved.

[goat]

Well, let's see. The mainstream media have portrayed Palin supporters as inbred, toothless, racist hicks.

Then, they turn around and ask people if they are an inbred, toothless, racist hick.

And you're surprised that the number of people answering in in the affirmative is not huge?

[Not Easily Fooled]

Yep, Sarah Palin can bring out thousands, even tens of thousands by just showing up, more than most any other politician, and the LAT is able to find a poll that convinces them that her popularity is low.

Every hit piece in the mainstream media results in more normal Americans paying attention to her and liking what they find.

By the way, how's circulation?

[idesign]

Sarah rising, Obama failing.

Life is good.

[TheArtOfDiet]

Sarah Palin is like a snowball. The more she rolls, the bigger she becomes. More people will discover her truth and authenticity.

[miguel]

Malcom used to brag about The Quitter's numbers beating Obama's, now he's reduced to bragging about her great anecdotes, what a hack! The Quitter is still supported by the same dead-enders that supported W until the end, the rabid irrational partisan right. Hope you horrible luck in the general you idiots!

[Tex Geoas]

You guys don't get it... Sarah Palin simply speaks what most moderate and conservative Americans are thinking and wish they had a forum to say it. Palin is not considered a candidate by most who like her. She is more like the Will Rogers of our time. We're thinkin' it... she's sayin' it. Simple as that. Most liberals are way over-thinking Sarah.

[Shucks, I dunno]

They is a lot of stoopid publicans. Thats how she got where she got. Course not as many as there useta be. I guess people are jess gettin too smart for that old malarky that the publican party keeps harping on. Independants would never fall for all that hogwash.

[John V. Karavitis]

John V. Karavitis opines: She's low in the polls because the polls are directed at people who would possibly vote for her. The only people who have voted for her all live in Alaska. She has her "momma bear" persona from her origins in Alaska and that people perceive her to be "one tough cookie". So, she has referent power - that is, people acknowledge that she has the golden touch, but she has only ever been governor of Alaska. John V. Karavitis knows statistics and statistical sampling methods, so I dispute the "Democrats are over-sampled" nonsense. Statisticians are trained to spot biases in their samples, to to make sure they avoid them. John V. Karavitis predicts that Sarah Palin will continue to be a supporting player on the national scene. Whether she will ever stand a chance to run for President, well..... John Karavitis

[Penny Pingleton]

Sarah's endorsement is important because it reflects the values of the average voter. She understands what we go through every day. If she were President, it would truly be a government of the people, by the people.

[GiggleT]

People agree with Sarah on the issues, and find her effective in articulating their views. But, they rightly do not see that as sufficient reason for voting for her for national office. Mouthpiece -- Yes! President -- No!

[Jade7243]

As others have noted, Palin doesn't have a track record of "success." She endorses late not early. Nikki Haley was also endorsed by a slew of Republicans. None of Palin's one-trick ponies have won a general election yet.

Were it not for the media's continued hyperventilating obsession with "Maxine Headroom" -- the female version of the platitude and slogan spouting cola pitchman of last century -- Palin would have retreated back into the Alaskan wilderness from when she came long ago.

Stand by for breaking news... Palin tweeted... oh, wait... it was just some random flatulence.

[Ed]

"I don't know if Sarah can win or even if she'll run," Cohen confided while clutching her copy of Palin's book, after positioning two others for better sales possibilities in a bookstore. "But she's so genuine and doesn't pull her punches. You get a sense that she's just like you, not in it for herself like all those other self-serving showboats who say such mean things about her."

^^^ According to this conservative sheephead, Palin is not in it for herself... SIGH... For crying out loud, Palin QUIT being the Gov. of Alaska because she realized she could make MILLIONS by taking the speaking and "writing" books gig. She even got her daughter to get into that too.

It's funny that a group of about 30 Palin supporters from local tea party chapters came to a California campus Friday afternoon, waving large American flags and carrying placards that read "Support Free Speech. The thing is, it's never a FREE speech with Palin. She charges 100,000 minimum to give a speech plus 18,000 to pay for her entourage.

And Conservatives need to get this fact through their thick undersized skulls: Conservatives have never won an election without the Independent and the moderate Democrat vote. What that means is, Palin might be a big hit with you simple-minded folk, the truth is she is NOT popular with the MAJORITY of the population.

The polls speak for themselves.

[thebob.bob]

"Journal poll was of Americans. Palin has been campaigning among Republicans".

Exactly! Fewer and fewer Americans identify themselves as Republicans and rightly so. Republicans, and the extremist anti-government, anti-tax, anti-regulation ideology they've embraced since Ronald Reagan, had left America in shambles. Palin clearly motivates the 20% of the Obama-haters and true rightwing kooks. They won't have a chance in the general election.

[Ed Gould]

OK, I give how many times have you seen a "politician" (I am being generous here people shoot wolves out of a helicopter?

Well for sure it wasn't a shining moment for feminism.

I am at a loss for explaining her so called popularity. Maybe the Republican party didn't mind spending $100K so she was dressed properly for the convention. I do know that proves to me that the GOP has collectively more money than brains. As for the tea party people they are just the latest version of the John Birch Society.
They were discredited 40 years ago but they still think they are "fresh?". Stale old ideas but same political chant.

[XLiberal]

Ed | June 26, 2010 at 06:17 PM
“And Conservatives need to get this fact through their thick undersized skulls: Conservatives have never won an election without the Independent and the moderate Democrat vote.”

The most recent Gallup poll shows self-identification as follows: 42% Conservative, 35% Moderate, 22% Liberal. Your observation is accurate, but it also works both ways. BTW, if my skull were as thick and undersized as you assume it is, I would never have left the liberal camp.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/141032/2010-Conservatives-Outnumber-Moderates-Liberals.aspx

[maya fenaux]

Outside the US, we all look in disbelieve how the America we all loved became over the last ten years a universal laughing matter. Sarah Palin? The creationists ? The
birthers? The tea-party ? Not to forget Limbaugh, Foxnews and Glenn Beck.......... Incredidable. What happened to part of the American population? Did they forget to grow up?

[bruce]

It's great to feel that left wing love ebb thru the words of wisdom of their own newspaper the LAT's. ( short for Latino) Perfect people who never get angry, are always open minded, and always see issues in the clarity as they do is refreshing isn't it? Why some dare to say they think they have some prejudices but I'm here today to stand by my fellow Communists and say nay to that idea. Why perish the thought!!! And if you don't on your own will send big brother to get you.

But Alas they did forget to mention the open mikes on few of the fallen comrades within their ranks that were uttering disparaging words against Sara. One can only hope and pray ( to the new God Obama.. but not at school) that they mend their ways and see the light of purity, peace, and tranquility that can only be brought about by the Love within the Democratic party.

[XLiberal]

maya fenaux | June 27, 2010 at 12:52 PM:
“Outside the US, we all look in disbelieve how the America we all loved became over the last ten years a universal laughing matter. Sarah Palin? The creationists ?...”

This reminds me of the “squandered sympathy” nonsense that came out when we went into Iraq. I met enough Eurosneers before 9/11 who stuck their noses up at the US: it certainly didn’t begin with GW Bush or Glenn Beck. Nice try, though.

When you were making a list of things which caused foreigners to laugh at the US, I wonder why you didn’t include people who thought 9/11 was an inside job.

http://no-pasaran.blogspot.com/2004/10/legend-of-squandered-sympathy.html