Something to ponder for 2012: Sarah Palin's ahead of where Obama was 30 months before his nomination

A recent Washington Post/ABC News Poll found that 30 months out from the 2012 party presidential nominations, only 71% of Americans believe that Sarah Palin is not qualified to be president.

This compares with someone named Barack Obama. At the same point in his then unannounced campaign,  0% thought he was qualified for the Oval Office. That's because he wasn't even on the polling lists' radar then.

The Illinois senator didn't show up on the polling charts until 24 months before the 2008 elections, just two months before his official announcement in Springfield, Ill. And even then he trailed the presumptive nominee, Hillary Clinton, 29-22, as the choice for the Democratic presidential nomination.

To illustrate how accurate such polls were in those medieval days of this century, someone named Al Gore was the third choice among Democrats then, followed closely by -- don't laugh now -- John Edwards.

The same predictive accuracy may well apply to Tuesday's CNN/Public Opinion Poll showing....

...that on only his 392d day in office, a majority of Americans (52%) have already decided to deny Obama a second term in office about 980 days or so from now.

All of which is vivid proof of how quickly the modern American presidential selection process and landscape is changing, making traditional patterns of political prediction as reliable as Prius brakes.

For starters, the last three presidents all won the nation's top political office on their first try for the Oval Office, a break from usual U.S. political tradition when voters seemed to want candidates to serve years in another office or executive position to come to know their political personalities before entrusting them with their highest office.

But now a combination of new media, wildfire grassroots dissatisfaction with Washington politics, a party leadership vacuum bequeathed to Republicans by George W. Bush and his elderly VP both walking out the door into wealthy retirement and John McCain's unsurprising defeat left the GOP field empty of regulars.

And inviting for a posse of newcomers and old-comers newly-wrapped.

One candidacy giveaway: new books. Palin's came out last fall. Mitt Romney's next month. And in April, Fred Thompson's. (We're not counting Karl Rove's, Dick Cheney's or Bush's.)

Palin also has other apparent qualifiers for the GOP 2012 race: she is not of Washington and doesn't currently hold an elective office, having resigned the Alaska governor's job last summer.

A surprise move that drew considerable criticism at the time, since largely overlooked, her lucrative unemployment provides ample time now for priceless regular media exposure on Fox News and to rouse her base, as she did 11 days ago at the National Tea Party Convention, the next day in Texas and last Sunday to cheering thousands at NASCAR's Daytona 500.

What base does anyone see coalescing around other potential GOP competitors?

While vocal Palin-haters reveled in her awful recent national poll numbers about presidential qualifications, they missed a fact: if she decides to run for anything, the first goal is to become the GOP nominee. And the voters Palin needs to convince about that are state-by-state Republicans, 69% of whom still see her favorably.

Anyone who's talked to her GOP supporters in recent weeks or watched her work a crowd comes away with a powerful sense of the Palin fervor. The more she's derided by others or in the media, the more convinced her fans are that she is like them -- a regular person derided by so-called elites, often unfairly. Translating such energy ultimately into votes is the key.

And by an impressive coincidence two political experts with wise eyes and decades of experience studying and observing American politics and its transient characters have recently tapped out favorable reviews of this self-defined political rogue who unexpectedly overthrew the entrenched GOP establishment in Alaska when none of the regulars gave her a chance.

The veteran Jules Whitcover of the Baltimore Sun wrote a column this week headlined: "Sarah Palin as GOP nominee in 2012? Don't laugh it off."

"Sarah Palin may come off as a bit ditzy," he said, "but stupid she is not."

Whitcover noted that polls show the highest voter anger or dissatisfaction with the federal government in a decade (about two-thirds).

Then, he recalled another political outsider who followed a one-term Democrat, Ronald Reagan, once also derided as a mere entertainer, who "30 years ago successfully rode a similar dissatisfaction with Washington by promising to 'clean out the swamp' there."

And no less a respected authority than David Broder of the Washington Post last week praised Palin's "pitch-perfect populism" in recent speeches and "the skill with which she drew a self-portrait that fit not just the wishes of the immediate audience but the mood of a significant slice of the broader electorate."

Broder said populism doesn't always win, but he was particularly impressed by Palin's goals:

First and foremost, I want to be a good mom, and I want to raise happy, healthy, independent children. And I want them to be good citizens of this great country.

And then I do want to be a voice for some common-sense solutions. I'm never going to pretend like I know more than the next person. I'm not going to pretend to be an elitist. In fact, I'm going to fight the elitist, because for too often and for too long now, I think the elitists have tried to make people like me and people in the heartland of America feel like we just don't get it, and big government's just going to have to take care of us.

I want to speak up for the American people and say: 'No, we really do have some good common-sense solutions.' I can be a messenger for that.

Finally, the veteran Washington watcher warned against deriding the unorthodox Palin. "The lady is good," he said.

We'll see exactly how good she is in coming months. What is certain right now is that as good as Obama was at ultimately reaping $750 million and winning the White House, no one was paying this kind of attention -- positive or negative -- to him this far ahead of his 2008 nomination or election.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photos: Gary W. Green / Orlando Sentinel

Comments

[greg hanson]

Excellent point!! It should also be pointed out that polling from May 08 to Nov 1 08, found that 0bama's "qualified to be president" numbers fluctuated between 44 and 47 percent, right up to election day. His personal "favorable" numbers didn't break 50 percent until fight before election day. So, the Palin bashers can crow all they want about the ABC/WaPo poll, but it's meaningless. Palin has all of 2010 and until about spring of 2011 to travel the country speaking, and campaigning for conservative candidates. If she decides to run in the primaries, she'll have most of 2011, and half of 2012 to crisscross the country campaigning. Like they say, in politics 30 days is a lifetime, so Palin has a lot of time to work the country. As 0bama's ineptitude gets more and more apparent, Palin may be just the change the country will be looking for in 2012.

[John from NC]

The reason why the great majority of Americans think Palin is unqualified is because they have come to understand her lack of qualifications. She is clever at spouting a small palmful of rah-rah points, so long as no details are needed. But her ignorance of American policy and economics is truly exceptional.

[Adirondax]

Yes, Pallin's gotten better at generally talking about general points on issues generally, also.

Forgive me, but most Americans don't think she's qualified to be President. And they won't soon forget her are-you-kidding-me (?!!) answers to Couric and Gibson interview questions. First impressions get retained. She answered those questions like the small town mayor she was, and the governor of a state that is smaller than many American cities.

What shouldn't be ignored is that Americans of all stripes are mad as hell, feel disenfranchised, and are looking for answers in 360 degree fashion.

The question is, will any of them actually vote. And how can you expect this group who has been convinced by Republicans that they can't actually afford health care, to step up and vote for a woman who has become nothing more than a vacuous celebrity courtesy of the McCain stain.

[voice of reason]

Does anyone else think that "only 71%" is a ridiculous way to phrase the amount of people who think Sarah Palin is qualified to be president?

I think the other 29 are the ones who buy the tabloids at the grocery stores and elected Arnold to be governor of California.

[CER]

Leave it to Mr. Malcolm to write such a piece so lacking in critical thinking it's breathtaking.

This isn't journalism, it's a the drivel of a man besotted by Sarah Palin (as was Broder's column).

I'm sure there are conservatives out there who can both write and think critically. Why doesn't the Times use them, instead of Laura Bush's former press secretary?

(Go back to watching Tip O'Neill's former press secy on TV.)

[steve1]

You are correct ... when ever the liberals deride her, call her stupid, barbie, etc. her base becomes larger.
Condescending elitists who think they know better than everyone else who doesn't think like them. Well you know what, we don't vote like them either. Now that we have seen what the Dems have done to CA and what their ideas are when they hold a majority in DC, we want them out. Even Boxer is going down in CA. Will that send a message? You betcha!

[Tom Steele]

It amazes me that someone pays you to write this drivel.

(It is wonderful, isn't it? What's better is you come here to read it. Thanks for that.)

[BOSMAN]

Being Popular doesn't make one Presidential. It simply means, People (for what ever reason) like you. I like Glen Beck, Sean Hannity, Bill O'Reilly, and yes, Sarah Palin. Yet, ALL OF THE ABOVE are not qualified to be President. they don't have the EXPERIENCE or BACKGROUND needed to get us out of the ECONOMIC MESS we're in now. I'm one of the 71% that KNOW Palin is not READY to be President

ROMNEY / DeMINT in 2012!

[Clinton Lovell]

This is the nature of the evolving nightmare facing today's modern progressive movement. The inherent weaknesses of the political platform have been exposed within only 392 days and the electorate is already lashing out in frustration and anger as they realize they bought a pig in a poke with Mr. Obama.

The question is whether or not progressives will learn from their failures. If they learn then they have a chance to retain power. If they stick to their philosophical guns they can sleep snug in their beds with their clean, progressive (and sometimes arrogant) consciousness clean and pristine, but they won't ever have political power again.

The coronation of Mr. Obama has resulted in many shortcomings that now must be reckoned with. We know that the way our economy and banking system are currently structured, we cannot borrow our way out of debt and we can't spend our way to prosperity. If this were true on a macroeconomic level, then poor people would just spend their way to a sustainable lifestyle, but that can't happen because poor people can't spend what they do not have. If we could borrow our way out of debt, then Greece (along with Cuba, Vietnam, North Korea and the rest of the socialist losers) wouldn't be facing bankruptcy. Therefore; the first lesson for progressives is that if they want to be able to change the game, they have to change the structure of the economy and the structure our banking system.

The sad state of federal government finances here and abroad provide another lesson for us; the taxation method of government financing has reached its limits and if we want to continue to increase spending and provide entitlement program benefits then we have to replace the taxation revenue method with the only method that will work; the investment-income method. This will require some fundamental changes, but in the end there is no alternative because the math only works one way. Is this a lesson the so-called "modern" progressive movement will learn?

Judging by what we have seen so far, they will not and that means that Sarah Palin will return as the modern liberal nightmare, replace Mr. Obama and return Congress and the White House to conservative rule starting with the mid-term elections of this year.

Faced with extinction, what will progressives do? Sarah has already figured it out and the real test is whether the modern progressive movement becomes more and more irrelevant or finally changes and enters the modern era.

Change you can believe in is what you are going to get. Hope you like the wrapper that comes with it as much as the conservative movement has enjoyed watching you do this all to yourself.

[Alex Morin]

This article is meaningless. The key thing to remember is that Barack Obama had arguabley only one "national" appearence prior to these polls at the DNC in 2004. Understandably, people thought he was not qualified to be President because no one knew who he was, or had to time to see if he knew what he was talking about. As his campaign progressed and people got to know who he was and what he had to say, those numbers became meaningless. He then garnered the largets percentage of the vote for a northern democrat in decades. Sarah Palin has been on the national stage for well over a year, giving what I suppose are policy statements and engaging in all the activities national politicians do, and her numbers are still terrible. This article completley neglects that fact. If Sarah Palin were an unknown, as Obama was, I would buy this argument. Simply false.

[beejeez]

Let's see, a former vice-presidential candidate on the national scene for a year and a half or so and a best-selling author has failed to persuade 71% of the country that she is not a crackpot. And this means she is on the fast track to the White House. OK.

[GD]

You forgot one other asset in Palin's favor--moronic articles like this one that piece together "facts" to arrive at a pre-determined and titillating outcome. With that aspect of reality behind her (the importance of ratings or readership in the news business) who knows how far Palin will go?

(And thanks for coming to read about her, Gary. We all appreciate it.)

[Davis]

You're kidding, right?

[Arctos]

An interesting column. I'm not sure comparisons between early polling numbers of Palin and Obama say anything useful. People who are answering polls about Palin now have had many, many opportunities to be exposed to who she is and what she thinks. Clearly plenty of people have already made up their minds. She won't be a blank slate when the hard campaigning starts.

If it starts for her. As an Alaskan, I feel pretty confident that she's not interested in the truly hard work that even a primary campaign would require. She makes a lot of money now for not saying much of anything and for not doing much except showing up and repeating her Facebook posts.

Her strategy of throwing spitballs from a foxhole has worked well so far. One real interview with a real reporter, and she could very well go down in flames.

[Tom Steele]

Your reference to the WaPo/ABC poll is not only laughable (ONLY 71% disapprove?), it also fails to mention that the same poll shows her disapproval numbers are trending UP. But I'm sure you knew that, which is why you didn't link to the poll.

(People who take pride in pointing out alleged mistakes by others shouldn't make their own in doing so. The link is there. Maybe someone can show you. And thanks for reading.)

[David.]

A cbs poll in aug 2007 6 months before the first primary said only 29% thought he was qualified.Americas great media(you are an exeption)keeps bashing her over the head with these polls.Why are they putting so much concern about her poll #s?They always point to others who will rival her as having better poll#s.However among GOP rivals she is always in the top 3.Palin has every bit a chance to win the nomination as any of the others.Most of Americas media would no doubt be horrified if she did.Can anyone imagine their horror if she did and then beat Obama in 2012?I would be rolling on the floor laughing my butt off for years to come.I still dont honestly think that would ever happen.However in 2005 when a little known senator said he would run for president.I though wow he must be a fool he will never beat Hillary and win.

[David.]

Just want to add,very few people know why she stepped aside in her state.People who hate her kept filing frivilous ethics complaints for nonsense like speaking at a right to life event out of state.Wearing a logo on her jacket.It was so bad she went 600,000 in debt defending this garbage.They paid nothing to file these attacks but she and her state were spending millions to fight it.Her administration became paralized fighting the nonsense.Palin decided to not go further in debt,and cost her state and herself millions more?They had no intensions of ever stopping,despite being warned to by the ethics board,that tossed out every claim.Palin knew she would get bashed for stepping aside.She did the only thing they would never of expected her to do.She ended the nonsense and gave a guy with no target on his back,the govs power.Not one complaint has being filed against him so far.He is now passing his agenda(which is the same as hers was),using most of her staff and making AK better.

[Colleen]

Only 71%? I'm confused. You write this like it's a good thing. When the next two or three polls come out and the numbers increase to say for instance, 95% of the American people don't think she'll make a good president, what will you write then? Personally I love the exposure she's getting. The more the American people find out about her and listen to her speak, well, those poll numbers keep going up don't they?

[Ray]

Gov. Sarah Palin is a whole lot more qualified to the out next president tha Obama is or has ever been!
She has had more executive experience as a working in the P.T.A., Wasill Council and as
the Wasilla Mayor, on the Oil and Gas Commission, and the as the Governor of Alaska.
Now lib's just ask yourselve's what has Obama ever had any kind of executive experience at?
He has never ever worked at anything. He's never known what is is or was to ever get his hand' dirty. He don't know what real work is!
He say's that he's been a community organizer.
Do you lib's know exactly what community organizer is? Well it's nothing but a complete touble maker, just someone that run's around town running ther mouth an just stirring up a lot of trouble!

[Betty Cracker]

OMG -- Wasn't 71% also the exact percentage of people who thought George W. Bush was doing a lousy job during his final months in office? So not only is Sarah Palin like totally qualified to be preznit, she's already on par to become the most reviled commander in chief in modern American history! Woot!

[Philistine]

I have a hard time saying anything about her without being disrespectful. Bout time a person of this caliber were available for the job of President. Why, oh why do we elect so many douche bags that you wouldn't buy a car from??? Biden? fuggetaboutit. McCain? Got a free toaster with that? Scumbags all, lets please move on (no pun intended). Boomers- wise up and start electing people of a younger generation.

[Kristen]

John from NC... She started as a PTA mom because she was concerned about the curriculum at the school...she didn't whine, she got involved...she became a City Council member to help prioritize the funds she felt where being mismanaged. She became Mayor because the incumbent was too close to people who didn't have Wasilla's best interest in mind...she was appointed to the Oil and Gas Commission by the Govenor she ended up overthrowing because of his corruption...she resigned the commission so she could expose corruption... She is a true servant for the people..she didn't win and just sit in the chair, she worked her butt off to make the city and the state better...she successfuly got AGIA through and we in the Lower 48 will benefit fron the clean natural gas that will bring us...she cut spending and didn't become an elitist in the process...So please either admit you hate her for who she is or learn who she really is...

[mistercalm]

Kristen is right, John... for heaven sakes, read a book... or, at least, read a blog other than Andrew Sullivan. How anyone can simultaneously insult Governor Palin by saying she's unqualified while defending Barack "there's nothing I'm not willing to screw up" Obama is beyond me. Such a B.O. defender is ignorant, living in denial, or an outright liar.

[Anahi]

I am in my late forties, I am a dark Hispanic woman with a strong accent and well educated at an American University, a proud U.S. citizen and I will vote for Sarah Palin because I want my children to grow up in a free non-marxist or islamic country where they can have the freedom to enjoy the American dream! God Bless.
Arriba Sarah, El pueblo unido jamas sera vencido!

[Mike]

This compares with someone named Barack Obama. At the same point in his then unannounced campaign, 0% thought he was qualified for the Oval Office.>>

Except for Blacks and Progressives that 0% is still about the number of Americans who think today that Obama is qualified to be POTUS.

[Travis]

Stimulus Bill Anniversary Proves Not-So-Stimulating (Sarah Pain)

If some think Palin's Facebook notes have no impact, consider this. She as of now has 1,395,500 Facebook supporters, (and it will hit 1.5 million within days) and this note has had 2,700 comments in 16 hours. This is not to mention how many conservative blogs have picked it up and posted same, almost all of her notes go viral on the internet very quickly. From just a simple little Facebook Page and beneath the MSM radar, this woman spreads her message and likely wields more persuasive communication power than any politician at this time.

[Travis]

For those who say Sarah Palin can never be elected president, if she should run, she doesn't have to convince you, just enough voters she can do a better job than Obama will suffice nicely thank you. And by 2012, that should prove to be a very easy task indeed.

[Zbigniew Mazurak]

This article is gibberish. Here's the best gem:

"if she decides to run for anything, the first goal is to become the GOP nominee. And the voters Palin needs to convince about that are state-by-state Republicans, 69% of whom still see her favorably."

Favorable ratings do not mean that she will win the nomination. Even the majority of Republicans (and a plurality of conservatives) admits that Sarah Palin is NOT qualified for the Presidency. Plus, even if she somehow wins the GOP nomination, she will certainly be humiliated by Obama, because the people who elect Presidents are independents, not partisan voters.

[mike]

30 months before Obama's nomination, no one knew very much about him. This is not the case with the ubiquitous Palin. The comparison is idiotic.

[Raymond]

I bleong to the 40% who say that Palin is qualified to be POTUS. Ronald Reagan has the same rating before he got elected president. I am not worried for now. What I am worried is by 2012, when a lot of liberal elites and GOP pundits including Katie Couric, Schmidt, Bill Maher and Joy Behar are going to cry with blood tears and feel ashamed of themselves the moment Sarah Palin got elected POTUS!! Sarah Palin, for sure, will do a radical reform for the best interest of this great nation. I just wanted to say to the gay activists, do not be afraid of her since she has moral conviction and common sense judgment. She is always pro-constitution and pro-people's rights and freedom. She was tested before when she was governor of Alaska. She will only get rid of those corrupted individuals who are taking advantage of the weak populace.

[brad]

We will not make it to 2012. Please visit WECANKNOW.com for important information about Christ's return on May 21, 2011.

[Socialist for Palin]

"Obama" is Swahili for "Carter." If I wanted corporate shills, I would have voted for McCain and Palin. I prefer an honest whore to a lying slut.