Scott Brown wake-up: Could Democrats lose the Senate?

 

The prospect of a little-known Republican state legislator besting the Democratic establishment in liberal Massachusetts was considered unlikely as recently as a month ago.

Then Tuesday night Scott Brown walloped Martha Coakley in the bluest state in the nation, and now some are wondering if the unthinkable is possible again. If voters are still angry in November, could Republicans recapture the Senate this year?

Handicappers think it unlikely. But given the volatility of public opinion, we thought it would be fun to run the numbers.

Right now, Democrats hold a 59-41 advantage, meaning Republicans would have to pick up nine seats to tie and 10 to win the Senate.

Political watchers have seven states in the toss-up camp. In Nevada, Majority Leader Harry Reid is in the race of his life. In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln is in trouble. In Pennsylvania, Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter is in a contest. Keeping Colorado for little-known Michael Bennet could prove difficult. Open seats could also pose a challenge -- retirements by Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, and contests in which caretaker terms are ending in Delaware (Vice President Joe Biden's old seat) and Illinois (where President Obama once served).

That still leaves Republicans a few short, meaning that even if they ran the table in all those races, they would still have to recruit some big-name candidate to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand in New York, or hope that Carly Fiorina survives the Republican primary and challenges Barbara Boxer in California, or go after Evan Bayh in Indiana, or target Russ Feingold in Wisconsin or Patty Murray in Washington.

"Even with Scott Brown's victory, I just don't think the Democratic majority in the Senate is in play," Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Political Report, told the Ticket. 

Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report also thinks it's unlikely. But she told Ticket: "If voters in Massachusetts are venting their anger, certainly the voters of Nevada are equally capable."

But even is a Republican takeover is unlikely, Brown's victory will likely give the GOP a boost in recruiting big-name candidates. Already, rumors are floating that Mike Pence, a prominent House Republican who chairs the GOP Conference, is thinking of challenging Bayh in Indiana.

Watch this space.

-- Johanna Neuman

Photo: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid heads to the elevators in December. Credit: Associated Press

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Comments

[Fuzzy]

The short answer: Yes, we can!

[James Smith]

Take OUT Murray in WA!

[Jeb Bush / Lez Cheney 2012]

Thank God America's voters have come to their senses. Time for our Military to remove this Keyan born muslim from the WHITE house and restore Democracy to the USA. Brown will restore the Tax Cuts for the Wealthy that we so desperately need to start the econom, and stop these nasty attacks on our poor Wall Street executives by the Hussien administration! No Health Care Death Panels!

[markmarks]

“Reform Deform” I say! I don’t know about you, but I think this Health bill is making America Sick. And nobody’s getting any better. And guess what the economy hasn’t recovered, so who’s paying the bill…You know with all this talk of our so called “healthcare Reform” I was wondering what on earth (in a perfect world of course) could actually constitute a good Reform…I guess this kinda got me on the right track though…
http://ketiva.com/Politics_and_Government/a_flawless_health_care_reform.html

[theillinoisguy]

It's probably far more likely than anyone will admit. By fooling around on legislation that doesn’t provide jobs, or at least create an environment for job growth, nothing else matters. Obama is at least giving lip service to the fact that we need to create jobs, but I’m not sure he will follow through. They’ve spent the last year spending money and doing things that will not only NOT create jobs, but continue to drive unemployment higher.
http://theillinoisguy.wordpress.com/2010/01/21/now-its-about-jobs/

[d4winds]

re: "Scott Brown wake-up: Could Democrats lose the Senate?"

Republicans already have complete control of the Senate. What do they need elections for other than to jeopardize their current power?