Shocker polls: That Sarah Palin-Barack Obama gap melts to 1 point [Updated]

Lordy, Lordy, Lordy, look what the pollsters just brought in.

A pair of new surveys revealing that President Obama is still declining and has hit a new low in job approval among Americans just 56 weeks after they elected him with a decided margin.

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FOR THE RECORD:
A Top of the Ticket post Tuesday on the relative popularity of Sarah Palin and Barack Obama erred in stating in the text and the headline that there was a Palin-Obama gap of 1 point. Two separate polls were cited, as the post notes, so the findings are not directly comparable.

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And -- wait for it -- Republican Sarah Palin is successfully selling a whole lot more than books out there on the road. Even among those not lining up in 10-degree weather to catch a glimpse of pretty much the only political celebrity the GOP has these days.

First, el jefe. Facing double-digit unemployment, rising spending, deficits and Afghan war casualties plus a keystone but stalled healthcare reform effort that caused a rare Sunday presidential visit to Capitol Hill, Obama recently fell below 50% job approval for the first time.

Then, last week's deft dance of rhetoric over sending reinforcements to Afghanistan but, on the other foot, bringing them home quickly maybe gave him a brief boost. That, however, collapsed with equal rapidity.

Obama's new Gallup Poll job approval number is 47%. Last month it was 53%.

Regular Ticket readers will recall how in this space in late November we pointed out that Obama's closely watched job approval slide was coinciding with Palin's little-noticed rise in favorability. And it appeared they might cross somewhere in the 40s.

Well, ex-Sen. Obama, meet ex-Gov. Palin.

The new CNN/Opinion Research Poll shows Palin now at 46% favorable. [A previous version of this post said that, at 46%, Palin was “just one point below her fellow basketball fan." The CNN/Opinion Research Poll did not ask respondents about Obama.]

(The same poll, btw, has bad news for Dick Cheney-haters; the outspoken former VP has climbed out of the 29% basement, back up to 39% now. How do you suppose he's done that without a new book? But that's another story.)

Not that either Palin or Obama will admit caring about such trivial things as disparate political polls....

...1,071 days before the 2012 election, when Republicans will have the concept of change on their side. Obama's camp is already using the looming Palin pall as a fundraising tool. Never let any potential threat go unmonetized.

The new numbers seem to indicate that despite oft-cited predictions about the dire impact of Palin resigning her Alaska governor's job in July, a lot of people who don't live in Alaska (and, come to think of it, most people don't live in Alaska) don't seem to care. She wasn't their governor then and she still isn't.

Palin's low favorable poll point of 39% came right after the midsummer resignation and she's been slowly climbing since, fueled by media attention, eager reader response over her book contents, her tour and the spontaneous outpouring of support at her carefully-calculated bus stops along the way -- 31 appearances in 25 states, many of them politically crucial.

Imagine what critics would be saying now if Palin was neglecting her elected Juneau job to sell books in the Lower 48 and talk to an elite club of Washington journalists, if there is such a thing.

The view, Palin told the capital's Gridiron Club Saturday night in her self-deprecating and at times pointed remarks (full text right here), is a whole lot better from inside the bus than from under it.

Palin critics -- and, by golly, there still are some, believe it or not -- say that she's a polarizing political figure.

And they're dead-on correct: 46% like her (including eight of 10 Republicans), 46% don't (including seven of 10 Democrats) and only 8% are undecided (no doubt including many who've been living underground since John McCain unveiled his VP GOP running mate in Dayton, Ohio, some15 months ago).

But here's the fascinating, little-noticed catch:

The very same polarization now holds true for Obama, the fresh fellow from the old Chicago Democratic machine who was supposed to bring hope and change to a nation tired of divisive politics and the harsh partisan tone of Washington.

Fully 83% of Democrats approve of him, but only 14% of Republicans do.

Among independents, who provided the crucial winning boost for the Democratic ticket in November 2008, Obama's support has melted to 42% today, in large part over immense spending and deficit concerns.

And as political veteran Dave Cook points out over on the Vote blog, just since last month, 3% of Obama's own Democrats have abandoned his ship, another 4% of Republicans and fully 7% of independents.

Other recent polls have shown Republicans leading for the first time this year on the generic congressional ballot and self-identified Republicans closing the gap with self-identified Democrats.

Meanwhile, Palin continued her book/celebrity sales tour across the heartland, stopping Sunday in -- oh, look! -- Iowa. "No politician comes to Iowa by accident," Republican strategist Tim Albrecht told AP's Mike Glover.

More significantly, Palin was in western Iowa, which is ruled by the Republican Party, which in the Hawkeye state these days is ruled by conservative evangelicals, who form a large chunk of Palin's evolving base. As another ex-governor, Mitt Romney, learned to his dismay in the 2008 GOP caucuses won by another ex-governor (and Baptist preacher), Mike Huckabee.

Obviously, not every politician visiting Iowa each election cycle ends up running for president. And not every Iowa winner collects the big prize. But no one gets to the White House without going to Iowa. Which Palin has now done on her own. Purportedly selling a book.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Related items:

The secret Sarah Palin speeches we never heard

Sarah Palin's book tour: What to watch for

What's actually in Sarah Palin's book

Sarah Palin breaks with GOP to endorse Conservative

Photo: Associated Press

Comments

[Utes]

This guy (Andrew Malcolm) I think sincerely tries to be clever, but...again...as with most lib writers...*YAWN*, he simply does not get it.

[Jeff {SkAtEbOaRd}]

What we are seeing here is a real meltdown, like butter in a toaster over. I wonder what the "over-under" in Vegas is on the number of Obama bumper stickers being removed before year end!

When that guy painted the "joker" face on the Obama mug..... he defined a Presidency. One only a quarter of the way done. Have mercy.

[Not Good]

Mike wrote (at 2:50pm): "I think the world is sick of hearing about the white-trash poster girl.

The only reason she is in the news is because this is Rupert Murdoch's new pet story for the mass morons."

__________________

Mike, why is it wrong to call a black an 'inner-city n---er poster boy' but OKAY for you to call Palin a 'white-trash poster girl?'

Do you not see your own inconsistency, here?

Answer the first question, please: why is one wrong but not the other?

[MG]

This isn't shocking at all. He is the President and is having to make some very hard decisions. Her biggest decision is about which color nail polish to use. She isn't making any hard decisions because....oh, wait, that's right, she quit her office so she could make money and boost her popularity. So of course she is rising in popularity.

[LoonsToTheLeftOfMe]

Yup, all us Redneck Conservatives who supposedly don't know a Pinot Grigiot from a Chardonnay or a half-caff vanilla latte from an espresso still know how to pull that little ol' lever in the voting booth! Shucks, I wish I'd had all that learnin' that them fancy pants folks in the White House, with Harvard degrees and community-organizin' experience, had. Heck, I wish I'd graduated from 5th grade! But that don't matter, cuz' I can still spot the difference between a hard-workin', sharp-as-a-tack, moose-huntin', self-sufficient, up-by-her-bootstraps mother of five, and an egotistical, limp-wristed, bowing, pantywaist race huckster who never held a real job in his life. And I think that's all that matters.

[Randy L. AZ Resident]

Funny how an out of work mom has as much popularity as our great cryer of change.

The ridicule and redneck remarks are all great, go ahead and think that people are stupid, one day they'll run your life.

[mauibucky]

I honestly fail to see what is so attractive about someone who quit her job mid-term,has someone ghost write a fluff piece , charges fans money for a photo of her, trashes the McCain campaign team that brought her onto the ticket and made her a star in the first place, poses in short shorts for a Rebock add in June and then whines when that photo makes it onto the national scene,snivelling that the "MSM" isn't fair to her. She brought it all on herself.All the media is doing is quoting what comes out of her mouth.

[Mark T.]

Hey Jose Awesome- this article isn't a stain on the LA Times- it's just as full of liberal bias as any other Times piece. You would just rather not see them publish anything positive about Palin (or any other Repub). I can only hope that 2010 & 12 will see you libs weeping and howling as we conservatives take the country back in landslide after landslide. Hopefully, Reid, Pelosi (i.e. Medusa), Frank, and a host of others will be trying to keep the doors of Capitol Hill from hitting them in the a** on their way out...

[Jim T]

I do not think that Palin would be a good president, but she'd still be better than liar Obama. Hey Obama - quit your side projects and focus on jobs! And by the way, government does not create jobs, fool.

[Bob]

But does she have Colin Powell's endorsement? The republicans need someone he will support ... until he endorses Obama, of course.

[tima]

let see, while Obama deals with the multitude of problems, sarah adbicated hers...who cares what a poll says today, only a year from now we will know whether or not the president is doing a good job according to the people. I wonder what the elections will show if unemployment is down to say 7%?

Why must the LA Times spend time and space drooling over a poll like this. We might as well switch Obama with Tiger, and Palin with Erin. Please LA Times, you are better than this. I want my 5 minutes back!

[hannah]

Go Sarah! You're the best hope the US has right now. Can't wait to vote for you.

[Bosk]

She's gonna have a hell of a mess to clean up when she's elected President in 2012.

[DEF]

As more and more people crack the shell of thought which keeps them encased in their sterile environment of indoctrination, their curiosity will be enhanced by now understanding what once bewildered them, they will learn to think freely and seek to do so!!!!!!! When someone is always asking something from you so they can govern you, it might be wise to question their purpose, especially when your rights and your money and/or those of your Boss, friends, acquaintances, etc. is always the subject!!!!! You could end up like the frog in the water on slow heat!! Boiled before you realize it!!!!!!!!

[Thrown]

It's easy to be president when you aren't.

[BluejeansB]

People are sick of Obama's ineptitude.

[JohnGaltPodcast]

By the time Obama's term is up, chances are VERY good that all but the most left-leaning will vote for just about ANYONE over him, so don't rule Sarah out. As for the hardcore Obamatons? Hey, he could eat a live infant on national TV and they'd merely say "Oh, what lovely table manners he has!"

http://johngalt.podomatic.com/

[Jim]

Go Sarah!!!!!

[freddy]

Your shock at the disapproval being shown to your messiah is hysterical!!

Keep up the media lovefest and ASSURE your demise; welfare states don't spend enough money with your few existing advertisers to keep your leftist agenda and employees in print much longer....

[Charleston Voice]

Palin's just as malleable by America's enemies as is Obama. She would compromise any principle for power. We need a leader with integrity, not a politician.

[2son]

Sorry..not a "shocker" for me....
You don't need polls to see what a terrible president Obama is, nor do you need polls to see how popular Sarah is. She is much more representative of the "real" American Spirit..and Americans easily relate to her...I certainly do. Obama has many weaknesses plus he doesn't seem to care for "America"..he's a very weak & indecisive and is certainly no Leader !! Hard to believe how much he has ruined in just 10 short months.

[Eric]

Yes, maybe Palin will be elected President in 2012 so that she can quit two years early in 2014 like she did when she was governor. America has always loved the quitter.

[Larry Roberts]

She can't even put a sentence together when speaking extemporaneously and you people want to elect her president? Don't you have anything better?

[Jason]

Palin/Perry 2012
Libs are in denial mode now. They sold their souls for this doof and now have to back him up no matter how much they see him as an obstacle to THEIR lifestyle.

2010 - take back Congress
2012 Revolution.

http://www.cafepress.com/rightwingstuff

[Gene Emmons]

Charles says Sarah lacks "gravitas" required to lead the USA. I agree. But I don't give up on her as a serious candidate, because she is (at least more than the competition) honest and wholesome. And I happen to think she's pretty high on both intellect and common sense. g

[Darcel]

Wishful thinking! Don't want to burst your bubbles, but if Sara cannot get the Blacks, Latinos, Asian and Jewish votes, she will never be President, she can't take office with only the white vote. Did anyone see the news today? where a white male threw a tomatoe at her. Her run for office is going to be interesting.

[JillB]

I am a southern, middled-aged, female who always voted republican- the constiuency Sarah should be drawing from. However, the second McCain chose her as a running mate, the other side got my vote. She is ill-educated, with an unimpressive resume, with ethics complaints up the wazoo and performed poorly with the media. I firmly believe had McCain chose a better running mate (and there were plently of strong, intelligent, well educated, republican women with impressive resumes to choose from), he would be President now and our country wouldn't be in the same shape.

Having said that, while I don't necessarily agree with all Mr. Obama's policy programs considering the severity and breadth of our country's economic woes- not to mention hunger and healthcare or the major wars in Afghanistand and Iraq- I much prefer the thought of just about anyone makeing those decisions instead of Sarah Palin. She is just stupid enough not to realize she's dangerous.

[martin]

HOW CAN ANYONE BELIEVE WHAT SHE SAYS!!! SHE WILL NEVER EVER GET MY VOTE!

[bbedoar]

I've always been impressed with Sarah, even before she was selected by John McCain to be his running mate. I must admit that her book sales are TREMENDIOUSLY impressive. I'm sure Hillary, Obama and even Glen Beck are envious of her book selling stardom, not to mention the money and notoriety.

Sarah is maturing very nicely in order to contend with the "BIG BOY'S" in a few years… and that's a good thing!
There was one thing that bothered me about Sarah's current picture on this article though, and that's that she doesn’t wear a wedding band?
Does any one know if she and Todd are still happily married?
What we have here folks are two colliding personal and political aspirations here, and they’re Todd, who wants to be snow mobile champion in Alaska, and maybe the U.S., and Sarah who wants to be in Washington politics.
Are they happy?

[George Chapogas]

welllllll ..... she is a heck of a lot smarter than he is. after all, how stupid do you have to be to believe you are gonna spend your way out of a recession with borrowed devaluing currency. what a moron. the American electorate has the worlds slowest dummy light, but it is finally beginning to flicker on. who voted for this idiot???????

[Wrong, Darcel]

Darcel wrote (at 6:29pm): "Wishful thinking! Don't want to burst your bubbles, but if Sara cannot get the Blacks, Latinos, Asian and Jewish votes, she will never be President, she can't take office with only the white vote. Did anyone see the news today? where a white male threw a tomatoe at her. Her run for office is going to be interesting."

__________________________

Well...I'm a bit sorry to burst YOUR bubble, Darcel, but your guy Obama (who btw is half-white, was raised by whites and frankly TALKS like a white) could not have been elected without MILLIONS of WHITE VOTES. There aren't enough minorities, even ALL COMBINED, in this nation to elect anyone without lots of white assistance. PERIOD! So, Sarah could win easily, even w/o a single minority vote (and she'd get lots) -- but Obama could NOT win, without a single WHITE vote. The question is, how many WHITE voters would support the other candidate(s); not how many minority voters would support Palin. You may not like it, Darcel, but whites are still the majority in this country -- they still run the ship, and always have. Obama serves at our pleasure (we are his boss, and not the other way around -- that's how a republic works), and if we don't like the job he's doing, we'll dump him in 2012...with or without minority votes. Don't be so quick to bite the hand that feeds you. Obama would not be where he is today, without white support.

[William diller]

Shocker for ultra left wing publications like the Times maybe. No shock for the backbone of this once great country who is finally saying enough of this shite.

[jon]

she's as dumb as a bag of hammers.
omygod, this country is surely doomed.

[jon]

>The Great Unwashed are stupid<

that would be correct.

[WKGWOMANINTN]

We need a straight-shooter, someone who can balance a budget, someone who actually RESPECTS the American way of life and will uphold the Constitution. Hmmmmm.... Obama or Palin.

[3nhydr4]

Just remember this, Palin, before you run for presidency: virtually 0% of minorities will vote for you. Now, while Wasilla and Alaska may be 80% white, in the states that matter, the population is 60% white or less. And you can't count on every single one of their votes.

Sorry, but it just doesn't pay to be racist in American anymore (reason Palin attended a university in Hawaii for one semester only because she disliked the Asians and the Pacific Islanders there).

[Jim]

As I have said many times before, as a hispanic republican conservative this is
one presidential person (Palin) that I will surely cast my vote for.
I just hope that once the Gop regains both houses, that they will UNDUE all of
the Health Care and start with a sensable program, and perhaps look into the
legal status of Obama as president...like demand his real birthcertificate and
demand that he opens up his school records.
If he's committed fraud against the american people...IMPEACH him like
yesterday and have him committed to incarceration for no less than 25 years
madatory plus restitution to the american taxpayers.

[PELOSI POLE DANCES]

I LOVE THIS GAL - SHOT FROM THE HIP - KEEP AMERICA STRONG STOP TALKING WITH THE TOWEL HEADS AND LET THEM KNOW THAT IF THEY SCREW WITH THE BULL THEY GET THE HORNS- SHE WONT LIE LIKE DICK HEAD IN THE WHITE HOUSE - AND SHE WONT TALK OUT THE SIDE OF HER MOUTH - LIKE DICK HEAD!! MAKE ALL NON-BELIEVERS PAY A TOLL OF $25,000 DOLLARS FOR ALL THE LEGAL FEES THEY KEEP RUNNING UP FOR SUING AT CHRISTMAS EACH YEAR.(BET THEY WONT DO THAT CRAP AFTER THAT TOLL)
MAKE ENGLISH THE OFFICIAL LANGUAGE(FOREVER) - BURN HAS MUCH COAL AS POSSIBLE(BRING BACK STEAM TRAINS THEY USE NATURES COAL FOR FUEL) - DRILL FOR OIL (IN MALIBU ON THE BEACH) - MAKE HOLLYWOOD PAY A 90 PERCENT TAX ON THIER PAY (TO HELP OUT US POOR FOLKS OUT HERE)-I KNOW ITS ALOT FOR HER TO DO BUT WE WILL ALL HELP HER KICK OUT ALL OF THESE LEFTIST FROM THE COUNTRY!! GOD BLESS THE REAL CHANGE COMING SOON!!!

[PELOSI POLE DANCES]

GO AHEAD DONT POST MY COMMENT- FREE SPEACH IN THE HOUR OF OBAMA IS NOT FREE ANYMORE- LONG LIVE THE REAGAN EMPIRE - IT WILL RISE AGAIN - 2012

[DL]

I certainly hope the Republicans put Palin at the top of the ticket in 2012. If the failure of George Bush, Sr. to be re-relected in 1994 taught us anything, it's that America doesn't like quitters.

[Justin Stark]

"The Media" has consistently underestimated Sarah, and continue
to do so. She took you out of the loop, and speaks, now, directly to
the Public. She doesn't need you, and you can't stand it. She, also,
has no need of the GOP; rather, they desperately need her.

You no longer matter. To Palin, or to us. Write those resumes, boys
and girls: you will need them, presently.

[G. F. Paradox]

This is not surprising. The republicans sold out to the religious nut jobs, militias and other pseudo-sexual weapon fetishists and the generally uneducated in the last election...almost half the voters are in this wack job category. Granted Obama speaks with more authority than his results seem to indicate, but this groundswell of moronic ignorance seems like a Christian take on Muslim intolerance. On behalf of all the normal people in America please accept my heartfelt condolences. God help us all...

Now lets shoot some critters from a helo and wave to Russia from the front porch. gfp

[Steffla]

Sarah Palin is popular at her book signings. So is Paris Hilton. They're both still idiots. Ooooooo....I'm a liberal shaking in my shoes because she's SO popular! Gimme a break. The woman is a redneck idiot who ran scared of Katie Couric! Oooooo but she's got big guns to shoot things with and wants to drill drill drill and saves babies (yea right). The woman is a HYPOCRITE who lies lies lies....preached abstinance and then allowed Levi Johnson to live under her roof with her teen age daughter. Sarah Palin in 2012...BRING IT ON!! Can't wait to see her get her butt wooped ...AGAIN!

[Lynn Nadel]

It is hard to believe that after 8 years of ruinous leadership by one moron the country will choose to elect another (SP) in 2012. I accept that a fairly large number of my fellow citizens are swayed by slogans rather than reality, but I sure hope they are not the majority and never will be again. Within a year or two the policies of President Obama will have been shown to work -- the economy will be moving in the the right direction, health care reform will have passed, climate change policy will have been adopted, and like it or not, Republican obstructionist politics will have failed, just as their policies failed from 2000-2008. No one ever said it would be easy, given the incredible mess the Bush administration created, but Obama has the fortitude and intelligence to stay the course. And that's lucky for America....

[mtnthc]

Not entirely surprising that someone as shallow as Palin is a big hit given Americans ever shorting attention span. But it is still amazing that people are forgetting that 8 years of Republican rule is what has brought us to our current state. Not that the Democrats are much better, but Palin is the best you can do? What the hell is wrong with you people?

[Andy Smith]

This is the worst news to come out in a long, long, long...time. Sarah Palin quit her job wrote a SELF PROMOTING book...and now she is seen as having done something? Republicans railed Obama for being a celebrity...which he was/became, then they push this woman? Palin is a joke! She can give a speech that excites the Party core, but the masses? She is no different than the new found Tiger Woods BS...hot now but an actual news story? Palin has flat looked like an idiot way too often to be considered. She has not shown the leadership ability of anyone, and has used PR to make it seem like she cares about anyone other than herself.

The Republicans would make a mistake in making her their nominee!

[Hugo Sham]

If Palin is ever elected president of the US, America would be an even bigger pathetic embarrassment around the world

[cooperscopy]

This is an unbelievable development, and could mean a possible run by the former Alaskan governor in 2012. the only question is will she run as a republican or a third party candidate, now that she has left the door open for that... Read: Will Sarah lead the Tea Part Movement..at...

http://cooperscopy.blogspot.com/

[Spartacus]

Time for the Magic Negro to take a fall.

[Kormac66]

As a lifelong Republican who defected after Bush's unjustified invasion of Iraq, i'm appalled at what the GOP has become. In 2002 Andrew Sullivan, the conservative writer wrote a piece in Time, "hey Big Spender" about the Bush admin and GOP congress. It's been an incredibly irresponsible run for the GOP, not paying for the single biggest new program in decades (Medicare prescription drug plan), not budgeting for 2 wars. And now Palin! I was a Republican because of their more insightful and realistic approach to governance. But Palin is ignorant and ill-suited to make decisions. She is gleefully ignorant and utterly ego-driven. An empty suit. It's all about identity politics in this pathetic version of the GOP. I only pray someone truly qualified and informed comes along to represent my philosophy of limited govt. lower and simplified taxes and reduced spending. And RESTRAINT in military matters.