Last-minute NY 23rd poll: Conservative Doug Hoffman surges, but ...

A last-minute poll of New York's suddenly significant 23rd District interim House race shows that with less than 12 hours before voting begins, the Conservative/Republican candidate Doug Hoffman has built a 5-point lead over Democrat Bill Owens.

But the newfound allies of Hoffman and the Republican National Committee had best hold off on the champagne purchases. The undecided voters there have doubled to nearly 1 in 5, making the final hours volatile.

With so much symbolism at stake in the minor race, Vice President Joe Biden parachuted into the district today, as The Ticket reported here earlier, to fire off several thousand words in support of Owens.

And the RNC made a quick ad buy to push the Conservative Party's Hoffman, who inherited the GOP's support when Dede Scozzafava, the official GOP candidate, saw the handwriting on the wall and quit Saturday under accusations that her pro-union, pro-abortion-rights views were not really Republican. Sunday she seemed to prove it by endorsing the Democrat.

New York's 23rd Congressional District was the scene of significant military....

...combat during both the American Revolution and the War of 1812. Historically, the 15,000-square mile chunk of upstate New York hard by Canada has also voted Republican -- going for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, switching to Obama in 2008, but consistently sending a GOP member to Congress since the late 1800s.

Today the largely rural area is the scene of a fascinating political struggle among Republicans and Republicans and Democrats.

The interim House election race -- caused by President Obama's clever appointment of the Republican incumbent to the positively essential job of secretary of the Army -- will settle one House seat out of 435. And even if the Republican/Conservative candidate holds it, absolutely nothing changes with the Democrats' lopsided control of the House of Representatives, 257-178.

The symbolism comes in two forms: It's seen as a microscopic referendum on the Obama-Biden spending agenda. So are the governor's races in New Jersey, where it's very close, and in Virginia, home state for the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, incumbent Gov. Tim Kaine, where the Republican is pulling way ahead.

Two or three referendum losses for the less-than-10-month-old Obama administration would augur ill for next year's midterm congressional elections, when history already stacks the deck against the party holding the White House.

Locally, the New York race is a symbolic struggle for the heart of the Republican Party. Some think the party's problem (i.e. recent election losses at virtually every level) is that it has not held true to its small-government, limited-spending principles under Bush or under recent congressional leadership.

This is why Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson and Dick Armey broke with the GOP to endorse Hoffman in recent weeks.

It now sounds as if the national party, which originally backed Scozzafava as the choice of state party county chairpeople, has gotten the new grass-roots message. This afternoon, House Minority Leader John Boehner said he regrets having backed Scozzafava.

Now listen to the RNC's new ad by clicking here. The "Pelosi/Paterson train wreck," "real conservative change," "proven conservative ideas like lower taxes."

But did you notice anything missing from that ad? Listen again.

It doesn't mention the candidate's name. Hmmm.

Well, the new last-minute polling by the Siena Research Institute shows Hoffman gaining momentum and pulling away to a 41-36 lead over Owens among likely voters. However, the pollsters said many of Scozzafava's supporters seem to have moved into the "undecided" column, which has increased to 18% -- keeping the outcome hard to predict.

However, the numbers also show that Hoffman's support among Republicans has soared from 27% in mid-October, before the Palin/Thompson/Armey endorsements, to 50% last Saturday and 63% today.

Meanwhile, Owens' support among Republicans moved from 19% to 13% to 14%, and his support among Democrats went from 55% to 66% to 62%.

Hence, the arrival of Biden to shore up his own base.

-- Andrew Malcolm

To ensure the future of American democracy, click here for Twitter alerts on each new Ticket item. Or follow us  @latimestot. We are also on Facebook if you can move the cursor just a little bit over here.

Related items:

Sarah Palin breaks with Republican Party to endorse NY conservative

It's Conservative vs Republican in NY's 23rd

Democrats face Terrible Tuesday; Joe to the rescue!

Photos: Associated Press (from left, Hoffman, Owens, Scozzafava)

Comments

[Randy]

I'm in the NY 23rd and can't wait to cast my vote tomorrow to send a signal to Washington. And after the vote, I'll be saving the Hoffman sign in my front yard

[Ray Comfort]

Is this the NY Times or LA Times? Joe Biden is kind of a clown back here, not exactly the hero to save the day!

[Beth]

There are many of us in this district who are offended by the extent of involvement by those with political agendas but no ties to our communities. The use of "grass roots" is certainly misused, given how much of Hoffman's financial support has come from outside of NY, and the fact that he doesn't even live in the district. We have been represented by a moderate Republican for many years, and Dede Scozzafava's views are not significantly different. Her support came from both Republicans and Democrats. Pundits and journalists would be best served by talking to residents of the North Country rather than repeating analyses by other pundits and journalists.

[mtnthc]

"...,It's seen as a microscopic referendum on the Obama-Biden spending agenda", that seems like a bit of a stretch given the District has consistently sent a GOP member to Congress since the late 1800s. Looks more like a GOP implosion and media hype.

[Amy]

Why is it that the Democrats are allowed to "shore up their base" , but when Republicans do the same, we are pandering to the "extremists"? Why is it that wanting not to spend money we don't have and wanting not to kill babies is extreme? Not kowtowing to union thugs is extreme? Having Palin (past Republican VP candidate) endorse one of ours is outrageous because she's not local? But Obama can endorse their guy, no prob, even though he's from Chicago. The only thing moderate about D.S. is her, nope... no, not that either, can someone please tell me on what issue she is a moderate?

[TJefferson]

Living in the NY 23rd, I am a life time Republican but I could not support the Republican candidate. What is the use of being a republican when the the official GOP candidate is another Demorat?

[Ryan]

If Hoffman wins (and it is likely) it will be because he represents the original Conservative Values that resonate with the majority of the voters who know their American History and believe that America is still "the last best hope for this planet!"

[Dan Mezza]

Wow, an objective piece of real journalism in the LA Times?

What gives?

Good article. These elections are more about the reaction of people to the big government / Dem power grab than party loyalty. People are fed up.

Good reporting.

[Mike]

The Conservatives Strike Back! Spike,Oliver,& Michael Moorer are getting nausea as we speak! Go Christie! Go Hoffman!! Go Reagan Conservatism!!! Stop the evil Socialist Obamulus Empire! As well as the blathering Biden!!

[keith]

Well, Mr. Doug Hoffman and his republican supporters can join Bare Beck and have another "tea bag party"

[RICK]

ALL THE VOTES HAVE NOT BEEN COUNTED AND ELECTION HAS NOT BEEN CERTIFIED HOW CAN OWENS HAVE BEEN SWORN IN ALREADY?
HOW CAN ANY OF WHAT OWENS VOTES FOR IN CONGRESS COUNT ?
FOR THE SAKE OF DEMOCRACY OF THE UNITED STATES ALL VOTES
SHOULD BE COUNTED AND ELECTION CERTIFIED.

POSTED BY RICK / NOVEMBER 15,2009