Sarah Palin vs. Barack Obama: The approval gap silently shrinks to a few points

Not that it matters politically because obviously she's a female Republican dunce and he's obviously a male Democratic genius.

But Sarah Palin's poll numbers are strengthening.

And President Obama's are sliding.

Guess what? They're about to meet in the 40s.

Depending, of course, on which recent set of numbers you peruse and how the questions are phrased on approval or favorable, 307 days into his allotted 1,461 the 44th president's approval rating among Americans has slid to 49% or 48%, showing no popularity bounce from his many happy trips, foreign and domestic.

Riding the wave of immense publicity and symbiotic media interest over her new book, "Going Rogue," and the accompanying promotional tour, Palin's favorable ratings are now at 43%, according to ABC. That's up from 40% in July.

One poll even gives her a 47% favorable.

Most recent media attention has focused on the 60% who say she's unqualified to become president. Her unfavorable rating is 52%, down from 53%, which still doesn't ignite a lot of optimism for Palin-lovers.

On the other hand, 35 months before the 2008 election, that Illinois senator was such a nobody that no one even thought to ask such a question about him. Things seem to change much more quickly these days.

Saturday night Palin's book bus swung by a mall in Roanoke, Va., a state Obama won a year ago but just recently elected a Republican governor to replace departing Tim Kaine, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. The former Alaska governor wanted to greet the hundreds of fans already lining up in 39-degree weather for her Sunday morning signing.

"She brings out a different crowd, " Salem Republican Party Chairman Greg Habeeb told the Roanoke Times. Habeeb was struck by the numerous non-Republicans he spotted in the line snaking all over the mall. "She taps into something that the Republican Party really needs to tap into."

Sunday, Palin flew ahead of her bus to visit the Rev. Billy Graham and his son Franklin at the father's North Carolina home before her appearance today at Fort Bragg.

Overall, Palin's, well, campaign will visit 25 states, most of them politically crucial. Florida gets the most stops, three.

Everybody thinks 2012 when they think of Palin, who last week pushed Oprah's show to....

... its highest ratings in nearly three years. Remember, though, in 2012 the first hurdles a rehabbed candidate Palin would face are her own party's primaries, where diligent conservatives conscientiously come out to play.

If she somehow mobilized Iowa's white evangelicals as Mike Huckabee did to win the 2008 season-opening caucus, many bets would be off about her unelectability. Right now, Palin holds 65% approval among white evangelical Protestants, not a bad place to start, if she decides to.

Anyway, Palin says 2012's not on her radar. Which is a good idea. The year 2010 is much more important for both of these political personalities.

No longer holding any office and personally set financially by the book's runaway success, Palin can devote her SarahPac and the entire year to collecting chits from local Republicans.

As Mitt Romney has already been quietly doing. Other Republicans will no doubt nominate themselves to join along the way, especially if Obama looks vulnerable after November 2010.

Although presidential incumbency has hardly kept Obama chained to the Oval Office, he and Joe Biden now own the U.S. economy, where their much-vaunted $787 billion economic stimulus package has so far stimulated unemployment to grow from 8% to more than 10%.

And then there's the growing deficit dread and the mounting costs -- human and financial -- in the increasingly unpopular Afghan conflict, where Obama is about to commit more U.S. troops at the end of the eighth and worst casualty year of the war.

We'll all hear much next year about how jobs are the last thing to improve in a sour economy, even in congressional districts that don't actually exist. Which is too bad for Democrats because jobs are the obvious first measure the public uses to measure the economy.

Historically, the White House party loses about 17 House seats in a normal midterm election cycle. That wouldn't change control of the House.

George W. Bush's GOP actually gained seats in 2002. Democrat Bill Clinton's first midterm election was a political Katrina, producing the Contract with America and so-called Republican revolution that saw the GOP take control of both houses of Congress after years of minority status.

Much of that turnaround was attributed to Clinton having run in 1992 as a centrist and then immediately pushed a more liberal agenda involving something called healthcare reform.

But that couldn't possibly happen again because of the popularity of Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi whose current favorable poll ratings are -- let's see here -- OMG, only about half of Palin's.

Related items:

What to watch for in Sarah Palin's future

Democrats going berserk over 'Going Rogue'

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credits: Getty Images; Keith Srakocic / Associated Press (Virginia book line); Jason Lee / Reuters (Obama walks alone on China's Great Wall). 

Comments

[Bulldog]

I will bet that Sarah Palin's poll numbers are better than Obama's in the next six months. Most people I know are really hurting because of the economy and people loosing jobs.

At some point people will have to recognize that we cannot spend ourselves into prosperity. Sarah Palin recognizes this. What we need are tax cuts and government spending cuts to get business back going again.

The democrats in congress have angered those that pay the bulk of the taxes with the Insurance Reform tax hike they are trying to pass.

Right now Sarah Palin is my favorite for President in 2012.

[Perspectus]

After being tbrown headfirst into the limelight, it looks like she has a good opportunity to make a good second impression. Good luck Sarah, the knives of opposition are being sharpened...

[Daniel]

I am an independent who voted for Obama - but never again will he get my vote. I am voting against every Dem incumbant in 2010 - time to bring back balance of power. Enough of this socialism, bowing down overseas, and lack of decision of Afghanistan!

[roncee]

"If she somehow mobilized Iowa's white evangelicals as Mike Huckabee did to win the 2008 season-opening caucus, many bets would be off about her unelectability."

Uhh, I didn't see Mike Huckabee win the Republican nomination. I would say the Iowa caucuses are a bit over rated as a indicator of a candidate's electability.

[boombooma]

Sarah's a Dunce and BHO is a genius? This newspaper thinks the politicians that ruined California's economy by over spending and now taxing us to death are the brightest people on the planet.

[Ed Coyne]

"Not that it matters politically because obviously she's a female Republican dunce and he's a male Democrat genius." Necessary?

Stoop!

[Kieran]

Excellent analysis; the MSM have only accelerated the Palin rise with their vitriol. Every flaw of Palin is covered; every lapse of Obama ignnored. But everyone is watching this double standard and sees right through it.

[TR Bender]

Palin closing the gap with Obama is no surprise.
She is smarter and can hold a cohesive thought without the aid of Hollywood gimmicks such as a teleprompter and rehearsed scripts and audiences.
Most of all, Palin represents true America while Obama represents Communist America.
You can ask Barbara Lee from Oakland about the Communist USA Party. She knows it quite well.

[S. Whitsett]

The only dunce in this article is the one who wrote the opening comment about Mrs. Palin. The other dunce is the editor of your failing newspaper and the people who support California ways.

[Bob Collins]

If he is a genius, why does he know nothing of economics, and why are all his economic plans destroying this country? Oh and for that matter, why since his election have race relations in this country dropped to new lows?

Some genius. Palin at least has run a state and understand real money and budgets. 1.5 TRILLION additional debt does not help. You cannot spend your way out of debt.

[Marissa]

"Not that it matters politically because obviously she's a female Republican dunce and he's a male Democrat genius."

If you consider this a reputable news publication I would think a comment like that would be ripped apart by the editor as at least extraneous and at best offensive. Say what you want about her policies but this type of behavior is juvenile and unnecessary.

[Thomas]

Can we use that opening line when approached at the grocery store to subscribe?

[Joe]

wow, what happened LA Times? Is this story really published by you? Keep this up and I'll actually buy the paper again! (P.S. so would Millions of other Americans..... hint hint).

[123rrr]

Whoever wrote this is a dunce. Sarah Palin obviously is very smart and will rise to the top. She's almost there. Whoever would think that Obama is a genius is clearly not that intelligent. You need to further educate yourself.

[rational hypostasis]

Call someone a dunce and mispell pusue is no way to be a journalist. Palin must have you in an angry tizzy.

[Jim]

The only Dunce in this article is the idiot who wrote it ( and Obama) of course; but what else can you expect from a failing lib-tard rag in a failing lib state....keep going the way your going; he helps people in real America, not the planet of California

[Brandon]

While Palin may not be the best choice to lead the nation in the future, she's hardley a "dunce" despite the best efforts of America's braintrust (aka, late night comedians)to make appear as such, and anyone that calls Obama a genius must certainly be an operative in the state sponsored propaganda arm (aka the main stream media).....then again you get credit for even publishing the real numbers. Numbers don't lie.... America, and the world should take note. Let's see if Obama and his cast of nitwits can weather even a fraction of the criticisim that was poured upon the Bush administration....(this may be a moot point as the mainstream media is still suspiciously silent regarding Obama's ineptitude) As the approval numbers continue to plummet, watch as the wheels fall off. Obama, who won the election based soley on the nation's myopic quest for "change", and in an election devoid of even moderate oposition, doesn't have any track record of sucess in finance reform, foreign policy, diplomacy, military stategy, domestic policy...or anything else for that matter. Criticisim is Obama's cryptonite, turning him, and appearently his advisors into quivering puddles of uncertainty. In a world that already views the US point of view as narrow, Obama's opinions, perspective and scope of experience is narrow to the point of tight rope status, which will prove to be too much for this "unbalanced" political neophyte.

[casey carey]

We love Sarah here & you must admit that she is much more pleasing to the eye than the current occupant of Pennsylvania Avenue. Not to mention that she probably would have world leaders eating out of the palm of her hand & tripping over themselves to stand next to her in photo-ops. As it was sung so long ago on CBS before cable news TV:
"Who can turn the world on with her smile?"
"Love is all around, no need to waste it
You can have a town, why don't you take it
You're gonna make it after all
You're gonna make it after all"
POTUS 45

[Mark Wright]

Barack Hussein Obama is the most liberal marxist to ever hold the office of President of the United States. He and the democrat majority have not just go liberal but gone socialist marxist and are trying to change the country into a marxist european nation. That will cause a bigger downfall than what Clinton brought about to the democrats.

Good ridance

[Holly Star]

So she may not be so dumb after all, eh?

[Dave Norby]

"she's a female Republican dunce and he's a male Democrat genius." And you folks in the media don't believe you have a bias? No wonder your circulation is plumeting, and well it should.

This "Democrat genius" is hell bent on putting this country into receivership with China with all of his spending. I'm not saying Palin would be any better but this guy is clearly not a genius.

[Daniel W. roberts]

"Not that it matters politically because obviously she's a female Republican dunce and he's a male Democrat genius."
So much for the impartiality of the press. If O'bama is a genius Fidel Castro is a capitalist. Plenty of Republicans would not vote for Sarah Palin but she's well liked by many people for her down to earth manner and style. O'bama on the other hand comes across as superior and condescending. While he may speak well with the aid of his teleprompter he isn't much of economic genius when he proposes billions in stimulus money that fails to stimulate the economy.

[canibeheard]

The people are finding out a community organizer can not run a country. The people that voted for him are finally going to get the change they were promised.

[ricardo maxwell]

Andrew Malcolm wrote: "Not that it matters politically because obviously she's a female Republican dunce and he's a male Democrat genius."
Not only does this juvenile partisan comment speak volumes about Andrew's level of maturity, honesty, and objectivity, it indicates that he is also a male chauvinist pig.
And "silently" shrinking the approval gap? It's only silent because the state run media chooses not to discuss it.

[Terry]

Why do you call her "a female Republican dunce"? The objection to Sarah Palin never had anything to do with her being a woman, and it's bogus for you to imply that it did.

[brunnegd]

How do we stop focusing on a person's popularity, and move to their qualifications for office? The public and the press get excited about the New Kid in Town, and pay minimal attention to experience. Obama had little experience in world politics, even US politics, minimal economic knowledge, when he ran, and Palin has even less.

[fjeffery]

When an article starts like this...
Not that it matters politically because obviously she's a female Republican dunce and he's a male Democrat genius.
who the heck gives the author any credit? I know the numbers anyway. Why do I want to submit myself to blatant propaganda? And you wonder why no one is buying newspapers anymore?

[jd]

Well, considering IQ is measured relative to the community, Barack would admit he's above the fold for the community he is a part of. Sarah Palin however would agree she's a dunce if you compare her to her constituents, something the supreme leader nor his constituents could even compute as this article demonstrates.

[Regulus de Leo]

Obama has shown himself to be the political dunce. No experience. Hopelessly naive when it comes to foreign policy. He can't pass a single piece of legislation. He passes the buck on everything. He blames Bush for every problem he has.
Palin has proven much shrewder than the Annointed One.

[steffy]

Andrew,

The truth is that the people who built this country, work, don't suck the system, create, raise kids the correct way, don't sell drugs and are here as good, legal American citizens are for Sarah.

The illegals, drug addicts, refuse to work folks, SUCK the system leeches, blame everyone but themselves, racist morons who have and will destroy anything they get are Obama's folks.

[nada reed]

wow.this is in the la times? i had given up any hope for that paper after they buried the rashid khalili tape

[gary l roland]

Isn't it interesting that a "female Republican dunce" has more common sense than a "male Democrat genius." --And the one who authored the statement has a brain influenced only by idiots and has no original thinking ability, so is no better than a "male Democrat genius." --And I'm a registered male Democrat.

[Rubicon Cross]

What a way to start your commentary? While it's not true, I would take a conservative dunce who loves her country over a lying "I hate America" phony anyday. Perhaps a better opening line would have been "I write for a liberal left wing radical marxist propaganda machine... so therefore what I think doesn't really matter anymore". Kind of like a Leni Riefenstahl film.

[carol]

I am so tired of hearing about how inexperienced and undereducated Sara Palin is. The fact is she has had more experience in running governmental affairs than Obama. She was governor longer than he was senator. Senators actually don't have the responsibility to make decisions or run large governments like governors. She is probably better able to handle responsiblity more than Obama. But she has a problem because (a) she is a Republican (b) she is probably the only Republican who can beat Obama and in that sense she is very much like Reagan who also had little experience on the national level and (c)she is an actual threat. So the only thing that liberals can do is to ridicule her and her family so she has the perception she is unable to serve. I lived in Illinois and Obama only served one term before running for President. WHere is his experience? ANd, I might add, he is a terrible President.

[Mike McClellan]

So a female republican dunce is more qualified than a democrat genius? That explains alot...

[azx voter]

She's a dunce and he's a genius??? Judging the past 11 months of the worse president ever (BO makes JC look good) it's the other way around. Keep smoking the weeds though, 2012 is around the corner.

[Perry]

How people can think Sarah Palin can be President of the United States shows how our educational system has failed. Not only does she not have th qualifications she QUIT her one public job she had. But the power of the mEDIA pushing and pushing her every night can not be measure....she is being sold like a laundry deetergent on TV....just amazing.

[patrick]

Female Republican dunce? HHmmm. Wonder where all of that rabid vitriol comes from? Perhaps it comes from the fact that in this world of corrupt, lying, spinmeisters she is a forthright, honest, common sense Republican woman. You may be convicted that you are closer to being one of the corrupt spinmeisters. Anyway, as far as Democrat male genius-genius is as genius does and at least you were honest enough to admit Obama has not done anything worth applauding.

[Jack Sheet]

She is the one we have been waiting for, not Mr. Empty Suit.

The vile attacks she is suffering at the hands of the coastal elites indicate her strength, not weakness.

[TILLIE]

I dont even know why i bothered to read your article today, as always your news...should actually be a gossip ..rag sheet.it stinks..i

[DownsteamJim]

Truly amazing with the press swooning over Obama and seething over Palin.

[ron]

Now if Sarah will distance herself from the RINOS and move even farther away from the 'center', she'll be a shoe-in in 2012. Sarah, go for:
English as the official language.
Fix the border problem.
Bring in school vouchers.
Deport all illegal alien criminals
Stop the spending.
Stop abortion.
Bring God back to America. Oh! And bring back Christmas.

[Ultra-Pro-America-Tracey]

HAHA! This obvious jerk democrat couldn't withhold his typical democrat party Hate for Sarah when she is out of office and no threat at all!

BUT, what if Sarah were in office now? What kind of horrible remarks would dems be making considering the awful comments they make about her now, and all the name calling.

Our most wonderful country will barely survive Comrade Obama and his massive invasion into your life through his socialist health care take over.
The God hating, America hating, communistic democrats hate America so much, they want to destroy her, but all they know to do is replace her with a copy of the old Soviet Union, Cuba, or N. Korea where a totalitarian will dictate to us.

I say we do all we can to uphold our dear country and oppose the commie/libs before its too late.

[Cap']

This is in the LA Times???!!! WOW. There may be hope for the Socialist Republic of California, yet. Well, maybe.

[Burke]

I would be interested in knowing what the "genius" Barak Obama's Law School Admission Test score was. He's already practically admitted that affirmative action was in play when he got the editorship of the Harvard Law Review. And Michelle has admitted she didn't have the required scores on standardized tests to get the education she got.

And, of course, he is clearly an affirmative action president, having been elected with virtually no qualifications for the job.

[Shelly Mender]

"She's a female Republican dunce and he's a male Democratic genius". Yeah, right !! That Democratic genius is running our country into a grave.. Sarah is a breath of fresh air and definately not a dunce unlike yourself for even stating that comment. That dunce you refer too sure has all your liberal friends attention. I would say she's more of a threat than a dunce. Otherwise, you and all other liberal cronies, including the media, would not be paying any attention too her. Know what I mean Andrew?

[Rachelle Tenace]

You 'dunces' at the LA Times are so out of touch....your paper, along with many other left wings rags, is going down the tubes because you underestimate Americans who aren't as 'cool' as you are out there in LA LA land (or NYC). Those of us who are too busy WORKING, taking care of our families, having pride in being American, appreciate the sacrifices of our armed services, and who oppose Obama's destructive policies have had enough!!!
As a strong woman (and ex-Dem), I can relate to Sarah Palin's story. She didn't need her husband (or money) to achieve what she's achieved so far....and being a mother of five, she's managed to do what a man would not be able to do (multi task!!!).
Take note, things will be VERY different in 2012!!!

[m]

The message for Sarah Palin in 2012 can be simple----

Voters in 2008 elected a "COMMUNITY ORGANIZER" to be president! How's that hope & change working for you?!?!?

Now it is 2012 and Sarah Palin will have a lot more to offer to the voters than skills of a community organizer!!

[lomanstein]

Female dunce, male genius. Why is Obama a male genius? What has he done to be labeled a genius? And you wonder why paper readership is sinking? You won't get it until it's too late.

[Andrew]

If he is a male democratic genius then the Democratic party and the United States is in even a worse predicament than I thought...get a life!