Analysis of Sarah Palin's strange move: Timeout or Flameout?

First, a few political givens:

These are different, changing times in U.S. politics.

The last three presidents each emerged from nowhere and achieved the White House on their first bid, though Bill Clinton and George W. Bush each had governor’s terms and reelections under their belts.

But what had Barack Obama ever accomplished as a freshman senator before announcing and achieving his desire for promotion? (And not finishing his first term either.)

The emergence of social media and online networking have created a whole new political environment beneath traditional media radar with untapped and unknown opportunities for unconventional politicians.

Sarah Palin is just such an unconventional politician, with surprising upsets in her past, a down-to-earth manner so different from the tired old suits you’ll see jabbering on morning TV this Sunday. And she has an astounding approval rate among her conservative base.

Most expected Palin not to run next year for reelection, like Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who now has the time and option to gear up for a 2012 presidential run.

Hardly anyone expected her to quit the governor’s office and turn it over to Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell on July 26, despite Palin’s slipped popularity at home. (Full Palin text here.)

Professionals watching a withdrawal like this conventionally and immediately wonder, what bad news don't we know about her that's about to come out? Is there some scandal, indictment or personal revelation that would cause her to step down even before its announcement? Friday, especially a pre-holiday Friday, is usually a time to announce what you don't want heard much.

But here’s why friends say she’s really doing it:

Palin is genuinely sick of, as she calls it, “the crap” that comes with national politics, especially the....

... effect on her family, which is more important than many have realized until now. The recent Vanity Fair article with alleged John McCain advisers mercilessly, and anonymously, criticizing her was only one element. As was a recent Alaskan cartoon mocking her Down syndrome son. And the pornographic ones before, etc.

Few in American public life have generated such heat as Palin, both for and against. It’s a fascinating phenomenon to watch. She connects electrically in person with crowds like few others in recent years. Her name in a mere headline brought thousands to this blog a few hours ago. And TV knows her audience appeal. Curiosity too.

What she’s decided to do, as a former championship basketball player who sees the bipartisan opposition has gained momentum, is take a timeout, get out of the line of fire awhile, write her lucrative book, take care of her children, blog and travel a lot without the responsibilities of elective office. Free her family from scrutiny. And avoid any criticism for ignoring an official job in Anchorage and Juneau.

And see what happens.

Her new SARAHPac remains intact, however, and is still accepting donations to fund her travels. In doing so, she can refine her political style, learn more about more issues, become less naive, hopefully find savvier political advisors more loyal to her than themselves for a change, people accustomed to a larger national stage that she’s willing to trust.

And rebuild her image over the next few years. That’s the thinking. Unlikely perhaps, but not outrageous if a previous elected official can survive a scandal over oral sex in the Oval Office and lying about it.

Her departure now also gives her successor 16 months to be seen as an incumbent for the 2010 gubernatorial election he says he'll seek to win.

In one sense, in the world of national American politics this is all incredibly naive. For whatever reason -- including incalculable unfair criticism and stereotyped media coverage that would never ever be tolerated for a male officeholder – she’s in a huge hole, partly of her own making.

She’s made numerous mistakes, partly from inexperience, partly from poor strategic advice. While Mitt Romney goes quietly about the business of building up political owe-sies by campaigning tirelessly for others all over the country, building his contacts and allegiances out of sight and using his long experience to appear statesmanlike, Palin is publicly squabbling with the likes of a grumpy, fading late-night TV celebrity who made a rape joke about her daughter.

It’s so soap-operey. Those awful slings about looking like trailer trash wouldn’t be aimed at a male Gomer Pyle. But it comes with the turf. Hillary Clinton’s long experience with that thickened her skin.

Also, strategically, what has Palin done since the election? Gone home, worked hard, but been drawn into more soapy fights with the media over mis-portrayals, which can all be true, but few but the most devoted care. It seems to say more about her than her intended targets.

Last winter, Palin was invited to speak at the year’s top Washington GOP fundraising event as The Star in early June. She or her staff dawdled so long, the event organizers went instead to a recycled speaker of the House emerging from his own image rehab after an affair, etc.

When House Republicans asked her to speak at their retreat, Palin said she couldn’t. But showed up at that stupid Alfalfa Dinner the same weekend.

When CPAC, the premier annual national gathering of conservatives, invited her as a primary speaker last winter, she first accepted, then sent a video.

When she did emerge from Alaska, Palin dashed down to a right-to-life dinner in Indiana, spoke at a special needs breakfast the next morning and ran back home. To the legislature, to be sure. But a lot of travel for not much impact.

Her other big Lower 48 appearance was at an event ... where? Does anyone know? Auburn, N.Y. And then she ended up at the big GOP fundraiser in D.C. anyway. But only as a face in the crowd. The worst of both worlds.

Here’s what she could have done: Planned a week traveling to large media centers; met with Henry Kissinger and other party heavyweights again as part of her ongoing foreign affairs study; women’s groups; toured an energy facility in Texas with a fan, Gov. Rick Perry, and talked about what Alaska’s energy reserves could do for America.

Gone on a morning show or two; dismissed the tired, predictable host questions about last fall; talked about the future; and wrap up the week as the red carpet star attraction at a $14-million Republican fundraiser in Washington.

Conventional political wisdom in the U.S. big leagues is that the job of president doesn’t come looking for you. Which doesn’t mean she can’t go looking later. But right now the bright star of Sarah Palin has flown behind a nearby planet to perhaps learn more, generate grass-roots enthusiasm and rebrand herself out of office.

A bold move. Naive? Long odds based on recent history. What can she claim in 2011—I served 2.5 years as governor of Alaska and then quit?

On the other hand, in this political age, 60 months ago who’d have predicted a little-known state senator out of the Chicago political machine with a proclivity to vote “Present” would be a U.S. senator, let alone the White House occupant?

--Andrew Malcolm

No quitting here. The Ticket goes inside politics several times a day even on alleged holidays, as you can see. Click here for Twitter alerts of each new item. Or follow us    @latimestot

Photo: Associated Press

Comments

[Richard P. McDonough]

She will be working for Fox as the Oprah for the intellectually challenged. I'll give odds.

[Mark @ News Corpse]

Let's face, there are only two reasons she would drop this bomb on the news graveyard of a Friday before a holiday: Either she has some serious scandal about to erupt, or she got an offer from Rupert Murdoch.

I'd look for the premiere of The Sarah Palin Show in the fall.
http://www.newscorpse.com/ncWP/?p=1322

Or she may may be going hiking with Gov. Sanford.

[Roy From Atwater]

palin is a smarmy, unctuous hypocrite. if anyone in this country is idiotic enough to vote for her (should she run for any office, much less president), we are in far worse shape than anyone has ever imagined.

[alinosof]

I don't know why governor Palin is stepping down but I sincerely doubt that it has to do with the hits she's taking from the press and her political adversaries, it just goes with the territory. SOS Hillary Clinton has been at the receiving end of this crap since she came to the national stage in 1992, it's been relentless, mean and downright pathological. As the saying goes, what does not kill you make you stronger. I am sure we'll find out governor Palin's plan for the future soon enough.

[Wil]

Looks aside, she never did much for me as part of the GOP ticket. Marginal qualifications, at best, coupled with quirky behavior was not going to get the ticket any votes. However, she has made some poor decisions since the election and this is the final nail in the coffin. I'm sure the GOP would love to have her on the ticket...if they want a candidate that can be portrayed by the opposition and unqualified AND unstable. Put it down...Flame out.

[Gill Bates]

"On the other hand in this political age, 60 months ago who’d have predicted a little-known state senator out of the Chicago political machine with a proclivity to vote “Present” would be a U.S. senator, let alone the White House occupant?"

Obama is intelligent, educated and a constitutional scholar.
He speaks incredibly well, is socially astute and on and on.

Palin is ignorant, naive, narcissistic - only one notch (maybe) above trailer trash.

This move is political suicide.

[Shae]

It really doesn't matter why she is gone, only that she is GONE. I hope she goes and reads books or writes books about herself or pregnant teens or how to successfully slaughter unsuspecting moose from the air. Who cares? This unpolished woman is an embarrassment to politics in this country. No other country in the world would have someone like this woman speaking out the way she does in such an uneducated manner. I sure am glad she is going away, "you betcha".

[PJ Finnerty]

Sarah knows the only thing separating her from a whole lotta cash is this little Alaska gig, Just too small for her incredible talents. She'll end up making a bunch of money pontificating on AM radio/Fox. She'll have a lot of money for a girl from Wasilla. And she'll spend less time raising her children than ever before.

As it ever was, it's about money.

[Melaine Samsoni]

As a democrat, I hope and PRAY she is the Republican nominee in 2012. She's ill informed, inarticulate and has a family out of Jerry Springer. She's the gift that keeps on giving.

[paul]

This is EXACTLY why Republicans like me didn't vote for McCain last fall. Did anyone hear that rambling speech? Utterly bizarre and completely nuts. I will never, EVER support anyone who backs her. She's made our party a joke.

[Shawdog]

You wrote: '60 months ago who’d have predicted a little-known state senator out of the Chicago political machine with a proclivity to vote “Present” would be a U.S. senator, let alone the White House occupant?'

Who predicted it?

Having read about this guy in The New Republic, I had already donated to Obama's Senate campaign. When I watched him deliver that Keynote Address at the Democratic Convention on July 27, I said, out loud, to myself, "Oh My God, he's The One."

On election night 2008 and for days afterward, my phone rang with calls from everyone I know, all saying the same thing: "Damn. You really nailed it."

Who predicted it? I predicted it.

[zuyder]

George W. Bush... emerged from nowhere, huh? Wasn't he the son of president George H. W. Bush? and the brother of governor Jeff Bush? Oh, I know... you mean nowhere as in, nowhere, a.k.a. Texas... gotcha!

[Kimberly Wilder]

Since I have worked previously as an education advocate, I am sensitive to the language that the disability community uses to describe themselves and their loved ones.

You wrote - in a protective way - about Sarah Palin's son as "her Down syndrome son".

The most empowering and polite way to say that phrase would be "Her son with Down syndrome." By using this "people first" language, you assert that there are parts of this child - his spirit, his soul, his rights, his family relationships, etc. - that are distinct from the disability he happens to have.

[c4Logic]

The simple fact that anyone would seriously regard her as a suitable candidate for the highest office in the land is exhibit A for how seriously far the dumbing down of America has gone and how utterly dysfunctional American politics has become. All of the problems that we face are wicked problems that even the best qualified experts disagree about the solutions. Yet some Americans want the leadership of a person whose best qualification is that she can field dress a moose and watch Putin stick his head up over the Alaskan horizon.Madness. Madness.

[BH]

Let's deal with some facts:

1. The cartoon was not about Palin's son; it was about an Alaska official

2. Letterman never mentioned or implied rape; the joke was about A-Rod, not Palin's adult daughter (and BTW, his ratings are soaring as a result of the added attention, not "fading")

3. After comparing the state government experience of others, your clock with Obama starts when he entered the U.S. Senate, despite 12 years in the Illinois legislature and years of teaching constitutional law

4. The Present votes were part of standard procedure in the state legislature and not unusual in any way

[Robin]

Palin will say anything, do anything to keep her face in the news. This is just one more example of that. Shelter her family? Pshaw! She shoves her kids out in front of her every chance she gets. She loves popping out to squeal, Oooh, Oooh, no fair touching the kids, then hiding behind them again.

[Happy]

The end of sarah palin? Awesome.

[Fairfax Voter]

I'm so tired of the "drive by" attacks on Obama's record before becoming president, uttered in passing (as one is here) without explanation.

I notice that such glib attackers skip over any achievements as a state legislator since those "don't count." Somehow state experience as a governor "counts" as hefty experience indeed. A strong legislative record as a state legislator produces yawns and amnesia.

In the four years he served as U.S. Senator Obama co-sponsored a major piece of nuclear nonproliferation legislation that made it into law, and has continued an intense focus on the issue as president. He co-sponsored another major, successful bill on government ethics and transparency. And those are just two examples.

Of course, he also wrote two well-reviewed and hugely successful best-sellers along the way, practiced law, taught at the University of Chicago, and, in his first jobs, learned the vital street-level skills of a community organizer. Along the way he ran an enormously successful voter registration drive that helped put Clinton over the top in Illionis. If those nonelective kinds of public service don't count, I guess that means John McCain's military service didn't count either.

Don't be a revisionist historian. Palin is one of a kind, thank God. Making up stories or slanting the truth about Obama and his substantive, lengthy, and impressive record is a cheap shot that makes you look bad, not him.

[Mel Gurney]

"What she’s decided to do...is take a timeout, get out of the line of fire awhile...and avoid any criticism for ignoring an official job in Anchorage and Juneau."

Excuse me?

Doesn't quitting count as ignoring an official job?

A cashier walks off the job in the middle of her shift, I'm never hiring her again. And I'm sure not making her president.

She's DONE.

[justiceserved]

Yes, and that unknown candidate only graduated from Columbia, and Harvard Law School! Where did Palin go? To 6 different schools in 6 years! We call that quitting, and with her lack of intellectual curiosity & basic intelligence she makes Bush appear to be a genius!!

[nonnie9999]

Why is everyone picking on poor Princess Sarah? After listening to her today, I thought to myself how nice it was of her to hire Joe the Plumber as her political adviser and Michele Bachmann as her speech writer.

[Fran]

'She’s made numerous mistakes, partly from inexperience, partly from poor strategic advice.'

However, the lion's share of those mistakes were straight-out, pleased-as-punch-to-tell-ya, expressions of her true beliefs. Which she repeated gleefully in many instances.

She is inexperienced, no doubt there. Her personal advisors are certainly suspect. But how can you explain away her ignoring high-level strategic advice and yapping away despite it?

Or the fact that she will not tolerate criticism or disagreement in any form, for any reason?

And that she seems to perceive any less-than-adoring commentary as an attack? She makes Nixon look sane and reasonable in that regard.

She reminds me unpleasantly of a super-egotistical pro athlete, accustomed to excessive praise since childhood, who believes himself to be above the law, the rules of civilized behavior, and common reality.

[Jeanne]

"The end of Sarah Palin?" I don't think so.

I hear the sound of battle in the land.

[Jim Nunya]

Curious that this article mainly seems to draw out more Palin bashing commentary. I suspect that she is getting out of national politics mainly to get away from the utter hatred that has been heaped on her from all sides without letup since she was picked at the VP nominee.

The pundits will guess and second-guess but I think they're all wrong and wrongheaded.

Good luck, Sarah!

[Freddy]

"But what had Barack Obama ever accomplished as a freshman senator before announcing and achieving his desire for promotion?"

Aside from his eight years as an Illinois legislator? And his stint as constiotutional law professor? And Chicago community organizer - derided by wingnuts, but hard wolr, nonetheless! And you're right, Obama didn't finish his term as US Senator - he WAS PROMOTED - you fool, to US President. He sure didn't QUIT - and has he LOST the election, he'd still be a SENATOR - not a QUITTER...