Ticket Notice: Sunday shows -- Surrogate city for McCain, Obama

ABC This Week: Former Hewlett-Packard Chief Executive Carly Fiorina (McCain supporter); Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo./Obama supporter) and former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan.

CBS Face the Nation: Obama supporters Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-Ariz.) and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) and McCain supporters Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R-Texas) and former Gov. Jane Swift of Massachusetts.

CNN Late Edition: Hurricane Ike: FEMA Administrator David Paulison. Campaign '08: Govs. Tim Pawlenty: (R-Minn./McCain supporter) and Bill Richardson (D-N.M./Obama supporter); Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif./Obama supporter) and Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn./McCain supporter); Linda Douglass (Obama campaign advisor) and Nancy Pfotenhauer (McCain economic advisor); Democratic strategists Hilary Rosen and Donna Brazile and GOP strategist Alex Castellanos and conservative columnist Tara Wall (Washington Times).

Fox News Sunday: Former Gov. Tony Knowles of Alaska (Democrat) and current Alaska Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (Republican); Fox News political analyst Karl Rove; Jim Laychak, head of the Pentagon Memorial Fund.

NBC Meet the Press: Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani (McCain supporter) and Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y./Obama supporter); author Bob Woodward ("The War Within: A Secret White House History 2006-2008"); NBC News political director Chuck Todd.

--Andrew Malcolm

Photo credit: Associated Press

The Ticket's weekly national electoral map; McCain's bounce gains 2 states

Here is the latest national electoral map constructed by Karl Rove & Co., which The Ticket publishes weekly as they become available.

Sen. John McCain’s bounce in the national polls has started to trickle down to the state level—he now trails Sen. Barack Obama by only 26 electoral votes, making the race closer now than it has been at any point since early June.

Overall, Obama holds on to 226 electoral votes, while McCain moves up to 200 votes, and 112 votes are a toss-up, a new high in that category. McCain picked up two states from the toss-up column -- Montana (3 EV) and North Dakota (3 EV), likely putting an end to Obama’s efforts to target these traditionally Republican states.

One bright spot for Obama is that a new poll in New Hampshire (4 EV) moved the Granite State from toss-up into his column.

But the largest shift in the race came from two swing states that Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry both won, Michigan (17 EV) and Pennsylvania (21 EV), moving away from Democrat Obama's column into the toss-up category.

It’s very difficult to see how Obama can get to 270 electoral votes without those states.

Meanwhile, two other toss-up states, Virginia (13 EV) and Florida (27 EV) edged closer to McCain. He now is ahead by 3 points in both states. If McCain has another similarly favorable week, both may move to his column and give him an Electoral College lead.

A chart showing all the weely movements of this ongoing study since March is available by clicking on the Read more line below. The Methodology is also explained there.

--Andrew Malcolm

So, looks like it was Charlie Gibson's gaffe on Bush doctrine, not Sarah Palin's

Charles Krauthammer, the conservative columnist, writes this morning that it was ABC News anchor Charlie Gibson who actually bobbled a question on the Bush doctrine during one of his recent interviews with new Republican vice presidential nominee Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

Testing Palin's foreign affairs knowledge, Gibson asked her if she agreed with "the Bush doctrine."

"In what respect?" Palin responded.

When Palin did not answer a follow-up, Gibson informed her that the Bush doctrine is "we have the right of anticipatory self-defense."

"Wrong," writes Krauthammer. "I know something about the subject because, as the Wikipedia entry on the Bush doctrine notes, I was the first to use the term" way back in 2001.

Krauthammer notes both in his Saturday column and on Fox News' "Special Report" Friday that over the years the Bush doctrine has actually had several different meanings and that Gibson's definition isn't even the latest.

The first was the Bush administration's unilateral withdrawal from the ABM treaty and Kyoto Protocol, which was followed by the post-9/11 "you're with us or you're with the terrorists," which was followed by the preemptive war in Iraq, which Gibson was thinking of.

The fourth incarnation of the Bush doctrine, Krauthammer explains, was the "freedom agenda" articulated in Bush's second inaugural address that "the survival of liberty in our land increasingly depends on the success of liberty in other lands."

"Yes," Krauthammer concludes, "Palin didn't know what it is. But neither does Gibson. And at least she didn't pretend to know -- while he looked down his nose and over his glasses with weary disdain."

Wonder if there'll be time to cover this story on "World News" come Monday night.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Photo: ABC News

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Oops, Obama ad mocks McCain's inability to send e-mail. Trouble is, he can't due to tortured fingers

(UPDATE: An updated paragraph citing McCain learning computer skills is appended below.)

As part of its effort to show the 72-year-old Republican Sen. John McCain as old and out of touch, the Democratic Party's hip campaign of Sen. Barack Obama, which frequently says it honors the former POW's military service to his country, Friday released a new ad.

As noted Friday by our blogging colleagues over at the Technology blog here, the ad says, among other things: "1982, John McCain goes to Washington. Things have changed in the last 26 years, but McCain hasn't.

"He admits he doesn't know how to use a computer, can't send an e-mail."

Here's the ad. Listen for yourself.

Like many of his generation, McCain does not like to talk details a lot about his wartime experiences, certainly not about any lingering physical symptoms. To be honest, it could sound like complaining and, as he's ruefully noted, unlike many others, McCain did come home.

The former pilot does joke sometimes about flying his plane into a telephone-pole-sized North Vietnamese missile.

Last week in his speech to the Republican National Convention, McCain opened up more than usual, mentioning his two broken arms and broken leg from ejecting over Hanoi, and his 66 months of imprisonment and torture, calling it simply working him over.

But something he did not go into in that speech were ...

For the record

A September 11 post on this blog based on a September 9 story in the Globe and Mail in Toronto mischaracterized executive vice president of the Society of Obstetricians and Gynecologists in Ottawa Dr. Andre Lalonde's sentiments as expressed in the Globe and Mail story. The headline for the post read "Canadian doctor warns Sarah Palin's decision to have Down baby could reduce abortions." And the second paragraph said, "But a senior Canadian doctor is now expressing concerns that such a prominent public role model as the governor of Alaska and potential vice president of the United States completing a Down syndrome pregnancy may prompt other women to make the same decision against abortion because of that genetic abnormality. And thereby reduce the number of abortions".  Doctor Lalonde's point of view should not have been portrayed as a concern that the number of abortions would decline but rather, as expressed in the Globe and Mail, that women would be influenced by Gov. Palin's decision to keep Down syndrome children that they were neither emotionally nor financially prepared to care for. Here's a link to the article on which the post, since removed was based.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080909.wxldown09/BNStory/International/

The October surprise: Osama bin Laden in a morgue?

The day after the seventh anniversary of the horrendous 9/11 attacks comes word from NPR and our colleagues over at the Countdown to Crawford blog that the U.S. seems to have launched a major semi-secret offensive in the rugged Afghanistan-Pakistan border area.

The possible goal: to get Osama bin Laden, the leader of Al Qaeda, before the election or by the time George W. Bush's second term ends Jan. 20.

How secret the offensive is now is questionable and the tribes in that wild area that have been harboring terrorists for years do not have an air force.

So they presumably would regard helicopters and sophisticated, armed Predator drones patrolling overhead as unfriendly and stay in their caves.

According to the reports, there's been a surge of CIA agents into the tribal areas. They'll blend in nicely with their ties and coats. No word on why now when previous searches have proved fruitless.

Because this is a political blog, we must ask the question: Who would such a deadly event benefit the most politically? Well, maybe Bush, who got scolded by Laura for once saying he wanted Osama dead or alive. But, wisely, Bush is not running for anything these days.

Barack Obama did suggest back in the primaries that he would unilaterally bomb parts of Pakistan if necessary, which Hillary Clinton criticized as naive and provocative to an ally. That sounds like precisely what we're doing now.

If bin Laden was annihilated, John McCain would not, as he has vowed, have to follow him to the gates of hell, wherever they are, reportedly somewhere in the Pittsburgh suburbs.

Meanwhile, Countdown has more on the story right here.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Sarah Palin second-guesses Barack Obama on his VP pick

They may be competing for the same job, but Sarah Palin and Joe Biden have found something to agree on: Barack Obama would have been wise to settle on Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential choice.

Palin offered her view as part of the Q & A sessions she did with ABC's Charlie Gibson that the network strung out over the last two days (for her previous comments, see here and here). In the concluding clip played this evening on the "World News" program, Gibson (a slight smile at play on his face) asked Palin whether she thought Obama should have tapped Clinton as his running mate.

"I think he's regretting not picking her now, I do," she eagerly replied.

Then, referring to Clinton, she said: "What, what determination, and grit, and even grace through some tough shots that were fired her way. She handled those well."

Biden, the fellow who ended up on Obama's ticket, gained attention earlier this week when he termed Clinton "as qualified or more qualified than I am to be vice president."

The Obama camp quickly fired off an e-mail with a response to Palin's comments after they were aired in the Eastern time zone. The missive contained the following tough-worded statement from Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida (a vocal Clinton supporter turned high-profile Obama backer):

Sarah Palin should spare us the phony sentiment and respect. Governor Palin accused Senator Clinton of whining and John McCain laughed when a questioner referred to her by using a demeaning expletive. John McCain and Sarah Palin represent no meaningful change, just the same failed policies and same divisive, demeaning politics that has devastated the middle class.

The "whining" reference by Wasserman Schultz is in dispute; as detailed here, Palin's remark was not as direct as the congresswoman asserts.

The incident involving McCain, meanwhile, refers to a gathering several months ago at which an audience member used the B-word to characterize Clinton. For those who don't mind hearing the profanity, the moment can be watched here.

-- Don Frederick

Photo: Charlie Gibson with Sarah Palin. Credit: Associated Press

Mark Penn, Clinton strategist, warns Obama -- and the media

A veteran Democratic political strategist has some advice for what appears to many to be a Barack Obama campaign rattled by the explosive entrance into the campaign of John McCain's vice president pick, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.

Mark Penn, the high-priced strategist who did such a good early job of launching Hillary Clinton's Democratic presidential campaign to doom at the hands of Obama, tells CBS.com he's worried that the Windy City gang will repeat the mistakes of the last two losing Democratic presidential campaigns by returning to the base after their convention instead of staying more on the convention message of centrism.

"It was more about tax cuts and strengthening the economy," says Penn, who notes that all campaigns go through periods of stress. "I think it was a message that was resonating. And so what happens in a situation like this is everybody rushes in with different pieces of advice. And it can be very hard to stay the course."

Penn says that if there's one thing the Obama campaign has been good at for 19 months it's scheduling major speeches on topical issues to focus attention on its agenda, and that it ought to do that on the ...

Fox news to interview Sarah Palin; husband Todd gets airtime too

With three separate ABC News interviews behind her, the Republican Party's vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin now moves on to the next network, Fox News.

Her husband Todd, the United Steelworkers Union member, oil field worker, commercial fisherman and father of five, will also be interviewed separately, as the latest portion of the unfolding media frenzy over the political newcomer.

It's all part of a quick two-day visit back home that drew a large welcoming crowd.

The 44-year-old Alaska governor saw her son, Track, off to Iraq duty with the Army Thursday, although in her speech to the Alaska unit she did not mention her son specifically. (See news video below.)

The 19-year-old enlisted in the service exactly one year ago on Sept. 11. After her final ABC interview with Charles Gibson today, Palin returns to the campaign trail solo Saturday with an afternoon rally in Carson City, Nev.

Our blogging buddy Matea Gold has the new TV interview details as usual on the Show Tracker blog.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Photo: Office of the Alaska Governor

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Ohio Poll shows John McCain leads Barack Obama slightly in battleground state

As it was in 2004, Ohio with its trove of 20 electoral votes once again could prove to be a key to the outcome of the presidential race.

A University of Cincinnati poll shows John McCain leading Barack Obama 48%-44%. However, nearly a fourth of Ohio’s voters say they have not completely decided how they will vote.

Eric W. Rademacher, co-director of the Ohio Poll, noted that more Democrats than Republicans currently say they intend to cross party lines by voting for McCain. The poll shows that 11% of Democratic likely voters plan to vote for McCain, while 5% of likely Republican voters intend to vote for Obama.

“You cannot treat these choices as final vote choices,” Rademacher said, noting that many Democrats and Republicans who say they are considering crossing party lines typically will return to their nominee.

The poll of 775 likely voters was conducted from Sept. 5 to Sept.10, after both the Democratic and Republican conventions. There was a margin of sampling error of 3.5%

The poll, conducted after McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate, shows men were siding with McCain, 51%-41%, while women were narrowly backing Obama, 47%-45%. (See news video of McCain and Palin in Ohio below.)

Rademacher said Palin's selection is causing women to take a second look at McCain, but that it's too early to tell whether she'll draw female voters to the Republican ticket.

Voters ages 18-29 overwhelmingly backed Obama, 60%-33%. Voters 65 and older sided with McCain, 49%-40%.

In an Ohio Poll conducted in September four years ago, President Bush led John Kerry 54%-43%. Bush ended up winning the state by less than 120,000 votes out of 5.6 million cast.

--Dan Morain