Final numbers: Most accurate '04 poll says Obama over McCain by 7%

As the actual Election Day balloting starts at the end of nearly 22 months of campaigning at an astounding cost of nearly $3 billion, the poll that was the most accurate calling the 2004 presidential race has made its midnight call for 2008:

Barack Obama by 7.2%.

You read it here first. Well, not really.

The Investor's Business Daily/TIPP Poll came within 3/100ths of a point of predicting the final results for the George W. Bush-John Kerry matchup four years ago.

This time the poll predicts the Obama-Joe Biden ticket will get 51.5% of the popular vote and Republican John McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will garner 42.4%.

How this works itself out in the Electoral College is something else.

The IBD/TIPP results show, not surprisingly, Obama is the strongest in the Northeast, where he captures 57% of the vote to McCain's 33% and is....

...weakest in his own region of the Midwest (42% to McCain's 47%), where Hillary Clinton cleaned his clock in the primaries.

It's 46-44 for Obama in the South on the strength of a large black vote and 49-42 in the West. McCain takes suburban areas (46-44) and rural areas (51-37). But the margins can't top Obama's urban lead (55-36).

Third party voters comprise only 3% of the urban vote but 5% both in the suburbs and rural areas, cutting into McCain's potential margins there.

Obama captures the 18-24 year-olds vote (56-38). But his margin steadily slips with voter's age until McCain wins the 65+ group (46-44).

Women prefer Obama (51-38) while men prefer McCain (47-43), indicating the Palin strategy did not really work on females.

McCain does better among his party members (89%) than Obama among his (87%). But, alas for the GOP ticket, there are fewer Republicans.

Obama gets 71% of the Jewish vote and 71% of those without religion.

Protestants prefer McCain (59-33), as do Catholics (48-40). Obama captures 89% of the self-described liberals while McCain gets 71% of the conservatives.

Single women prefer Obama (65-26) while married women vote for McCain (46-43).

Sixty-thrtee percent of Obama voters do not display the American flag, more than twice the proportion of McCain supporters who don't (30%).

The complete IBD/TIPP results are available here.

--Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credits: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images (top); Associated Press (bottom).   

Comments

[Don]

That's it LA Times. Keep trying to convince the people that your guy is winning in a landslide so they won't show up at the Polls. The one good thing about this election is that the incredible media bias has been exposed to the world. I will be surprised if the LA Times is still in business in 5 years.

[beevee]

McCain of 2008 campaign is not the same maverick McCain of 2000. I admired the latter but did not like his 2008 campaign strategy at all. He was all too negative and his running mate Palin was so negative during her campaign I did not want to hear her voice at all. He could have chosen a better running mate. He could still remain as a good bipartisan senator from Arizona to finish his career as a politician.

[lightnin]

Two things stand out about this election. One, how low the "democratic" has fallen in morality, two, how the press shamelessly parrots the democrats' lines.
Case in point - One of America's core beliefs is the right to the secret ballot. The democrats totally support the unionists recent and current attempts to ELIMINATE the secret ballot, which would give them "Big Brother" power over their members, allowing intimidation, harassment, and recriminations. Have you heard ANY democrat or "news" reporter speak out against this blatant attempt to curtail freedom in America (or "Rev." Wright, Ayers, Rezko, "Redistributing the Wealth", etc.?) No, and you WON'T! The unions and the democrats are in bed together, along with their press groupies! They HATE freedom, they LOVE only the power to CONTROL. If you vote for Obama, you're voting AGAINST the secret ballot, AGAINST one more of our traditional American freedoms! One step closer to one-party Socialism!

[kurt]

yo -- typo, I believe...your headline says '04' poll.

[Atlas]

@lightnin : tell me one instance of anyone ever saying they are against the secret ballot in the election of government officials, person and place please. Why? Because it never happened. And perhaps the reason you don't see stories in the media that you agree with is because your views are unpopular or simply incorrect. Ever think of that?

[Economic Reality]

Atlas, You are so out of the loop and just don't get it. What lightnin was referring to is the Card Check Bill and it pertains to unions and Democrats teaming together to eliminate workers' right to a secret ballot election in order to vote in a union. Funny enough, it was the unions themselves who fought for the secret ballot election back in the day in order to eliminate "intimidation" by the employer. However, the unions suck and their membership is in the tank, so now they want to eliminate the secret ballot election ( among other new union-biased laws) in order to intimidate employees into simply signing a card to get the union in - harassing them on the job and at home and posting to fellow employees those employees who don't sign on. But, I guess this information is above your pay grade - you are probably voting for Obama for the same reasons the others are I have encountered "Obama is going to pay, my mortgage, pay for my healthcare and save my retirement" - god help us all with this sort of ignorance. Obama is an empty suit and no wonder 63% of his supporters don't post the American flag - notice how at Obama rallies all the koolaid drinkers chant OBAMA and at McCain rallies, they all chant USA. A sad day for America, my friends.

[Atlas]

@Economic Reality: Gee willikers, I guess that's why I said "election of government officials." I don't care about outdated Union elections nor should does anyone who isn't in one. Ol'Lightnin insinuated that Obama wants to elimnate the Secret ballot for general elections, an absurd claim.
As to your personal attack, I suppot neither McCain or Obama, they are both politicians, who all must lie to be in their jobs in the first place. So if you think either Obama or McCain will save your house, your job, or retirement, you are deeply misled and wholely misnamed.