In the polls, Barack Obama has quite a streak going

How much of a cataclysmic upset to the world of polling would a John McCain victory over Barack Obama on Tuesday represent?

Here's a statistic from NBC political director Domenico Montanaro that puts it in perspective: "Obama has now led in 111 straight national polls with methodologies we trust... ."

Also today, Montanaro's hard-working colleagues who crank out MSNBC's "First Read" political note break down the final NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll, looking behind the numbers that give Obama an 8 percentage point lead (51% to 43%). Here are the specifics that leapt out to us:

Obama’s advantage is largely based on his overwhelming success with African Americans (winning them 90%-3%), Latinos (68%-27%), and 18 to 34 year olds (59%-38%). It's about as solid of a three-legged support stool as any candidate could ask for.

The poll also shows that McCain and Obama are pretty well liked by voters. ... But what’s striking is the intensity gap -- almost twice as many respondents (44%) rate Obama “very positive” than they do for McCain (24%). In short, McCain’s supporters like him, but Obama’s LOVE him.

In addition to finding Obama likeable, voters are becoming more and more comfortable with him and the idea of him becoming president.

Over the course of this general election, NBC/WSJ co-pollsters Peter Hart (D) and Neil Newhouse (R) have identified one key question in the poll for Obama: Do you identify with his background and values? And Obama has always trailed McCain on this score. Until now. In our new poll, an identical 57% say they identify with the candidates’ background and values.

-- Don Frederick

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Comments

[NABNYC]

Just For The Moment, It Feels Like Camelot
I went down to the local Democratic club and made phone calls to Nevada last week, asking people to vote for Obama. Maybe one out of 100 was supporting McCain. Everyone else was supporting Obama.

And I can’t help but notice the avalanche of publicly-known Republicans coming out to support Obama, along with editorial boards. And I guess about 95% of the rest of the world too.

He is our prince. Everyone hopes he will save us, help us climb out of this horrible pit into which we have sunk. We should rejoice in these brief moments of elation because a few months from now we will be forced to acknowledge that Obama does not have a magic wand, doesn't know everything, can't erase the nightmare of the past 8 years without much sacrifice from all of us. Because he is just a man among men, one of us. Which is pretty cool.

But just for the moment, it feels like Camelot. All our men are Lancelot and all our women are Guenevere. And we all live in the most convenient spot for happy-ever-after-ing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6osWPmwfWyE

A local artist just made this video about Obama. It’s amazing. Must-watch. Turn up the music and wait for the very end. Then send it to everyone you know.

[bill badger]

our standing in the world demands an obama presidency.
A mccain win would shatter our standing further.

[indi]

I hope the love affair with Obama will pan out. Or it will turn very ugly very quickly, as they turn away from Bush now.
Obama is built on an empty suit. I hope his talent extends beyond the talk of hope. When people is hungry, coolness doesn't help.

[Paul E]

none of my many right wing friends actually like or agree with the views of Mccain or Palin. They just don't like the idea of having Obama as the next President without any solid reason why. There is a unconscious undercurrent of racism that lives inside of these guys. There good people but the idea of a President with a different color skin is to much for their "Patriotism" to handle and they are not even sure why.

[Scott Duffy]

It would upset the world of polling greatly if McCain won. But I think more importantly, it would shake worldwide confidence in the U.S. election system if he won.

This isn't like watching a football game where the underdog beat the favorite and the bookies were surprised. Without something happening today or tomorrow, the result of the election NEEDS to match the result of 111 consecutive polls, otherwise a quite convincing case can be made that the election was fraudulent. Watch for a stock market crash Wednesday if McCain wins.

[Martin]

That guy who did all the speaking tours about voter fraud (you know, the guy who wears an ill-advised hat?)... this is looking like the kind of election that he was hoping for. One that is too decisive for anyone to GAME.

[Mike in Sac]

Obama isn't "Loved" by his supporters. What a crock! He just generates a much more positive response, as in he is much more likeable. This whole "Loved" bit feeds right into the train of rhetoric that Obama supporters are some kind of mesmerized or coverted believers with Obama as our God. This really ignores the reality that his supporters tend to be better educated and follow politics much more than those who, on average, support McCain.

It doesn't help McCain be more likeable in acting like an angry man. His gritting and grinding of teeth and ogre-like stomping around during the debates showed a man that it is hard to relate to and "Like" let alone feel comfortable with his thumb on that button that launches our nuclear arsenal.

Also. he really came across very poorly as he gave up his moderate-independent leanings and moved far Right. It came across as false, misleading, and politically calculating. Who likes that?

[jeremiah]

"You can fool ... all of the people some of the time..." Abraham Lincoln

[WOBG]

OK, right-wingnuts, you phony Americans--your world is imploding. Show us how much you're messing your pants right now. Let's hear your lies, smears, race-baits, etc. Ready? Go!

[NinaK]

I find it hard to believe that anyone would even like John McCain after the shameful and slanderous campaign he has been running. McCain is no hero, he is a selfish, mean-spirited, and vindictive man who thinks, because he was a POW, the United States OWES him the presidency. He is a shallow man who does NOT put country first....he did not do so while in the Hanoi Hotel where he was known as "The Songbird" and he does not put country first now----he has done and said anything and everything to divide our country and our citizens. THAT is NOT putting country first!! He proves again and against just how dishonorable and vicious he really is!

[M.J. Hamada]

Foregone conclusion.

President Obama.

He shall do great things.

[jefflz]

Lets hope that the turnout is very high and that the young and disenfranchised who have registered actually make the effort to vote and are not denied by the voter suppression tactics common to all recent elections. McCain/Palin have been working overtime to divide this nation using fear and lies. A close election will be challenged. We cannot afford a repeat of the 2000 political coup carried out by the Supreme Court. We have all paid a very heavy price for that injustice. Obama needs a landslide if he is to have a reasonable chance at uniting this country- something we all dearly hope for.

[Jonathan]

If Barack Obama 'loses', it's not a problem with the polling, it's theft of votes by the republicans. Trying to pretend it's a polling problem is another way that the media tries to spin the theft of an election by republicans as democracy. They did it in 2000, they did it in 2004, and now they are doing it again in 2008.

[Harvey Weintraub]

GOBAMA!

[Eb Jeb]

It isn't amazing at all to any statistics student that Obama has led the surveys. The Media kept telling everyone he should. They failed to be un-baised, as there own studies have proven, and people follow what their told.
Hopefully there are enough independent thinkers out there to see past the poor job the media has done.

I have seen only one article that has provided the actual number of "negative" ads run by the candidates. It showed something of Obama in a very bad light with the sheer number of negative ads dwarfing McCains. The ariticle disappeared 17 minutes after it was posted! What a sham! The people deserve the whole set of facts, but now the media only wants to provide their bias. The "Freedom of the press" was guarenteed to prevent only one sided information from coming out, it appears th media as a whole has not only forgotten that, they have intentionally forgone it.

Why has the media not insisted that Mr. Obama provide a single copy of his "registered" birth certificate? Most likely since it doesn't exist in the State of Hawaii's online site, it doesn't exist. Maybe this has been a great "lesson" for the American People in constitiutional laws! Mr. Obama being welled versed in the constitution knows that if he can't produce a copy that a well worded legal argument can keep him from ever being sworn in. Better yet, maybe the state record doens't exist because Mr. Obama was born slightly before he claims. This would mean he isn't even a Citizen as automatic citizenship wouldn't be granted to an individual born in a territory to one American and one Kenyan.
Or maybe he really has one and just wants the drama. But the American People will never know - why? Because the media hasn't done an impartial job, or even attempted to act like it is impartial. Maybe now is the time to let the rest of the constitution go to. After all Under Mr. Bush a lot of it has been "surrendered" to provide "secutrity" so maybe the press feels it is time to just throw the constitution away.

[Curly]

Most of the average people supporting Obama expects to get much more from an Obama presidency than a McCain. What most of them don't think about is what it will cost them. If Obama delivers half of what he has promised them the cost in dollars is going staggering. The income tax reduction and and tax rebate will fall short of what it will cost each of us. If he reduces taxes for 90% of us then the taxes on the 10% left will become confisatory. If that happens I think you will see those who's money is being confisicated will move what they can off shore and will not be taxable by the US.
I would like to see the precentage of income that those who support Obama give to charites verses McCains. Most conservites are liberal when supporting charities.
I propose a line be put on the tax returns that would allow those who file tax returns to contribute any amount they wanted to the the governments to use it seams good. I think you will find almost no takers on it. If the Oboma supporters think it is good and patratic (as per Biden) then each of them should contribute something on that line.

[captbilly]

At this point in the election I am happy to see that one candidate is seeing support from a wide range of demographic groups. America is in big trouble and the only way we are going to get out of the fix we are in is if we all work together. To some extent it doesn't even matter which candidate we support, so long as in the end we all pull together.

I think it would have been more patriotic of McCain if he had refrained from the character attacks. Those sort of attacks leave some voters with lingering distrust, not the sort of thing we need to unite the country. Negative campaigning may work to get someone elected but it doesn't serve the country very well.

My last comment is that selecting Palin as his VP has got to be one of the least patriotic things a presidential candidate has ever done. McCain is old and has an extensive history of melanoma (a particularly deadly and fast moving cancer). He needed to find a VP who could unite the country and be ready to step in as President. I don't think that any rational person could believe that Palin is ready to be President. To be honest I doubt that any amount of experience will turn Palin into someone suitable to be President (in the same way that even 8 years as President has not been enough to make George Bush a decent President).

[Tony Cal(D)]

So as I've suspected, more Republicans support McCain because they really really dislike Obama, and The Democrats are more likely to be ambivalent to McCain, but really like Obama.

It's the exact flip of 2004, where Democrats supported Kerry but more out of dislike for Bush, than real love for Kerry.

[SS]

If Bush showed how dangerous concentrated power could be, why would it not be MORE dangerous to elect Obama if this man's party could potentially control both the house and the senate -- as well as the presidency? Isn't that an even greater concentration of power in the hands of one [entity]?

This is change, but is it change for the better?

[Realist]

I, for one , don't give a darn about the way someone looks , or how cool they are , or whether or not they grit their teeth and stomp around. This isn't a Hollywood Movie that we're talking about. If Obama wins this election , our nation is going to hell in a basket . I do hope that all of you have the moral fortitude to stand up and admit that you were wrong when that happens .

[Matthew]

I personally dilsike Obama and it has nothing to do with color, creed, or any other "underlying racist" factors. I simply believe his economic views are just insanely short sighted and very unrealistic. I also have to question the character of a man who has so many close relationships with such a cast of shady characters. I do not see how anyone cannot see him for what he is, a figurehead who is bankrolled and created by all that is wrong in this world. The only solution to Americas problems is to turn back to the GOD of our forefathers who blessed and grew this land.

[Roland]

Frankly, neither candidate has the power, the character, or the intelligence to fix the problems. Obama's philosophy _is_ Socialist, anyone who disagrees is unable to comprehend or to admit the meaning of that word. The problem is, after indulging in the most significant exercise in Socialism since Franklin the Red's New Deal by nationalizing the financial industry, the Republicans are in no position to make that case. While Obama's policies will be terrible for the US over the long term, he at least seems personally emotionally stable. I slightly favor McCain's policies over Obama's, but the man is a reactionary lunatic, capable of ricocheting off on a tangent for no apparent reason. As POTUS, he would drag the country along on those excursion, and that scares the crap out of me. I won't be voting for any candidate for President, and I encourage all rational citizens to follow suit.

Government requires coercion. Coercion is evil. It is _exactly_ that simple.

-Roland

[Bob Marley]

If John McCain wins, it will only because plenty of quiet Republicans had better things to do than sit around on the net stuffing polls. Or posting nasty angry comments against McCain and Republican voters on every liberal news article written. One could only wonder how large the possible silent majority that is still out there.

But be as it may, if Obama the charming Prince of change comes to power with all that change, then it will definitely usher in a new age. Long live the prince, long live the prince they shall say. The change he will bring will actually be a positve for those in the know with the times being such as the are.

I look forward to it all one way or the other. So most of you get ready to say "long live the prince".

[Seni]

Barack Obama is the one trying to win this election by voter fraud and by out-spending John McCain 4 to 1. All those Acorn workers buying homeless and felons votes and registering people to vote 70 times or more is ignored by the media. Kerry had a big lead the day of the election in 2004, he still lost. Polls are inaccurate and cannot be trusted. There are a large number of Hillary supporters, like me, voting for McCain/Palin. We just might help McCain win.

[Justice Lady]

The Polls are DEAD WRONG !!!.

Obama is inexperienced and dangerous.

Vote McCain-Palin 2008
Don't let ACORN steal the election.
Don't trust the media, pollsters and pundits- It's YOUR vote that counts.
Be be discouraged by long lines.
The media is "in the tank" for Obama. The want/need to get him elected.
Even the exit polls will be wrong- because Democrats are more willing to talk to pollsters than Republicans or Independents are.

Vote for the future of America- McCain-Palin 2008 !

No "spreading the wealth."
No Marxist
No higher taxes
No Bill Ayres, Rev G.D. AmeriKKKa Wright and his associates ad nauseum.

[Listen]

IT ANT OVER TIL IT"S OVER.

[Carlos Rosales]

Dear friends:

This evening, talk to at least one undecided voter to accept Obama's change. If we all do, we will duplicate our votes for Obama. Don’t be shy and ask people around whom they are voting for. Help voters understand that we need to change the way we do things in this country.

Convince one undecided person now, in the bus, street! Help them understand that all the other things the opponents keep saying about Obama are lies. Don’t let this chance be taken from you. We need the votes in Pennsylvania!!!!

Here is what to say:
• Obama is a Christian. He is a man sent to rescue us from the worst crisis we ever been since 1930.
• Obama is a winner! He raised more money than McCain! He got, 3 dollars for every dollar McCain got. Obama raised over $150 million in one month from regular folks not public money!
• Obama will bring our troops home. He will stop the war and the spending of $12 billion a month on Iraq.
• Obama will help mothers with paid sick days. He will support head start and childcare programs.
• Obama loves his country US and is an example of a family man. He will protect US the way he protects his family.
• Obama knows how to talk peace with the leaders of the nations that do not like USA. He will prevent future wars. Obama will make sure our country is safe. He will keep our young soldiers home so they can protect our people.
• Obama will promote democracy and human rights. He promises equal pay for an equal day's work, and job training.
• Obama will help homeowners keep their homes and create opportunities for new homeowners.
• Obama will fund more schools and make a public college education free. He will hire more teachers and will pay better salary to teachers.
• Obama is smart! What a change!!!
• Obama is a young and strong–as supposed to McCain. Why should we elect a 78-year-old man? Shouldn’t McCain stay a happy retired senior? Why do we have to risk that Sarah Palin be our next president? When Bush came in, we had a surplus; now we have a deficit.

Make an undecided voter today think and once and for all get that ……..

[Mitch]

Wake up, ObamaCamelots!
You have been hypnotized. Obama's agenda is to harvest upper middle class wealth and give as much as possible to lower middle class wealth - without ASKING.
Wright, Ayers, Reszko, Khalidi, closed Columbia record, closed Harvard record, nothing written while at Harvard, praise of Marx, Malcolm-X, Farakhan, PLO-Khalidi, and to top it off no real birth certificate - all from a say anything person with a declared intention to vastly increase taxes and a record of supporting and being a part of Acorn, the most corrupt voter fraud organization in history! And in peoples' desire to be non-Bush they will put in a Democratic majority Congress so all the changes will happen lickity split. America and its hard working people are great, not a dismal bunch of help-me misfits Obama that Obama spent 10 million parading on TV. Blast me away, but if you don't include Fox, you are getting a 100% Obama-mantra view of things only!

[exasperated4]

Mike in Sac is right--Obama supporters are not idol-worshipping him like so many right-wingers like to say--we are merely excited about the prospect of REAL change that Obama brings and that could help America become great again.

[yomama]

Obama stands for things I despise. At the top of the list is the government making all decisions for me, of course they won't favor me because I don't come from a "minority" or "suppressed group". When he says fairness he means steal from the industrious and give to indolent. When he says "hope" he means "my power" and when he says "change" he means redistribution. In Canada they let you die before you get care for cancer. Point blank is the government never has your best interest in mind, so why should they be left to solve your problems. Pick up your sorry ass and take some responsibility. It makes me angry to think that there's so many people "hoping" for a free ride.

Personally I think I could like Obama, he seems like a nice guy that I could hoop with, but the so called "principles" he holds to are ill-founded, weak at best and a transition from socialism to outright communism at worst.

To all of you looking to suck the life out of this country - see you in the streets, my fist in your jaw.

[ernestd]

An Obama victory would create a big wave of good will toward the US in many places around the world. I hope Obama and his crew are smart enough to capitalize on that this time. Bush and his bosses Cheney and Rumsfeld blew it last time. Let's home Obama and crew get it right.

And if the RNC/Diebold vote-stealing machine succeeds, let's hope they keep McCain alive throughout his term.

[Jan Hoyt]

If you are undecided, or just want some good information about the candidates, please check out TeamSarah.Org.

Thank you very much.

[Ethan]

If Obama loses, it's not about stolen votes. It's about the fact the media is calling the election WAY too early, and many uninformed people are buying into it.

[andrew]

Paul E, For months now I have been reading the political comments posted by readers online and I have noticed that the extreme conservative Republicans are especially hateful, and most of them fill their comments with Rush Limbaugh sound bites. Rush Limbaugh has had way too much "freedom of speech" during these last 8 years, encouraged and allowed to do so by the Republican administration. Limbaugh has poisoned a large bloc of Republican citizens, keeping them trapped in an attitude 25 years out of date. He stokes their fears and amplifies their worst characteristics, driving them to see an enemy in everything out of the conservative box. This prevents these people from accepting the changes and advances of 21st century America, isolating them and making it harder and harder for them to live productive and happy lives. It is my hope that the Obama administration will rein in the poison conservative talk show faction, and the people who follow it and live by it can be healed of their unwarranted hate and bigotry.

To these people I say: there is no reason to be so hateful and fearful! Rush has it all wrong! This is a great country, full of good people, patriots all, and great possibilites for a happy and prosperous life. That neighbor whose views differ from yours is not a terrorist or a socialist or a communist, he's just the fellow American next door. Learn to feel love and hope and generousity. Stop fearing and hating. God bless America!

[PS]

I would have considered voting for McCain if he had run on issues rather than running on twisting whatever Obama said. So McCain has a plan. I want to hear about HIS plan, not his version of Obama's plan.

[TheLocke]

Is McCain ACTUALLY on the Campaign Trail Right now???

I found this picture of him in a HOSPITAL online earlier, it was up on some news site, then all of the sudden I couldn't find it again...I managed to Save it to my Photobucket Account...Does anyone know if this is REAL?

http://i479.photobucket.com/albums/rr160/thelocke/hospital-shot.jpg

[Qq]

You Americas SPEAK of such freedom of choice. So black and white. Dems-Liberals-Socialist-Left vs Reps-Conservative-Hardline-Right . I have news for you. You have no left. Just shades of Right and you have no choice, It's all just a myth. Some guy in a gray suit will be president tomorrow, He won't work for you.

[Fran Barlow]

I'm not an American. but let me all assure you, the world is watching with fascination and hope as this plays out.

If Obama wins there will be spontaneous celebrations in virtually every major city of Europe, large parts of Africa, Asia and the Pacific.

This is more about the idea of an America as a force for good, a good neighbour, as it is about Mr Obama's personal qualities.

Each of us has been labouring with a strange paradox these last 8 years. Everyone one of us knows Americans who are decent, generous broadminded and intelligent people, and yet scarcely a day passes where we don;t see something reprehensible or perverse afoot in your country. Your image aborad is of ignorant swaggering louts whose government rests on a combination of fraud, criminal conduct and the anomie of moronic and ultimately self-destructive rednecks.

Mr Obama seems so far from that image that it's impossible not be impressed. That he is even a chance of winning makes you seem not quite so nasty a place. Should he win, those of us who have spent our lives appalled at America's conduct, both towards its own citizens and others will finally hope that America's governance will correpsond with the Americans we know personally.