Two national polls depict starkly different Obama/McCain race

From the polls-as-an-imprecise-science department (with an emphasis on the "imprecise"):

Today's updated daily tracking poll from the Gallup organization: Barack Obama up by 11 percentage points over John McCain, 52% to 41%.

Today's updated tracking poll for the National Journal's Hotline (based on data collected over the same period, Sunday through Monday): a virtual tie, with Obama up by only 1 point, 45% to 44%.

For a compendium of these and other recent national polls (all of which show a closer race than Gallup), see here.

-- Don Frederick

Don't forget, polls or no polls you can still go to Twitter and sign up for free automatic and instant alerts of every new Ticket item sped directly to your cell.

Comments

[Bob]

Let's read and hear more from the Bob Barr campaign. Is that OK? It is so pathetic that the McBama campaign is the only thing we hear or see or get to read about.

Why is the media controlling who gets to be president? Should I just get used to it, you know just bend over?

[lyndel]

* We know that both parties conduct secret polls with the best polsters they can find to see who is really ahead in the polls.

* So look around, which party is frantic and panicking? That's right - the McCain/Palin ticket is far behind in the inner-party polling being conducted by both parties.

* Instead of just looking at the two polls mentioned in this article, go to realclearpolitcs.com and view the results of about 10 different national polls. Then decide for yourself who is winning.

[Morris]

Don, If you view the history of both pools you will see why.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

The Daily Gallup is a much more accurate poll. It comes out everyday and has been consistent for over 20 years.

The National Journal's Hotline is a weekly poll, it is not as accurate. When you review their archive you see that they have only been around for 3 years.

I recommend as the most unbiased, best in accuracy and consistency Gallup tracking and Rasmussen tracking polls.

[Chris K.]

Looking at both poles, Gallup worked off a pool of 2000 registered voters, Diego Hotline used a pool of 972.

Larger pools equal more accurate numbers

The end.

[jefflz]

The Real Clear Politics poll of polls gives a better picture fo trends over time than any single poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

The trend continues in Obama's favor, especially at the electoral college level.