Obama, McCain predict a tighter race and a new poll confirms it

Often on the stump now, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and his vice presidential running mate Joe Biden have started to predict a tightening in the polls in coming days, polls that show the freshman Illinois senator with a six- to-eight point lead nationally.

That's a smart strategic move because if the gap does narrow, Obama and Biden look prescient and their supporters likely don't go into a last-minute tailspin at the thought of losing after leading by so much in money, ground operations and poll numbers this fall.

And if the gap does not narrow, the Democratic ticket looks all that stronger.

Trouble is, off-camera in his weekend interview with Fox News Sunday's Chris Wallace, the Republican nominee John McCain said the same thing. In fact, he said his campaign's polls have already detected a slight shift.

He better hope that's so, as some research shows the Democrats at or near the magic number of 270 electoral votes, according to state polls and a hypothetical Electoral College count.

Presidential races often do tighten near the end, as Americans (including the growing numbers of early voters) confront their actual individual decisions after 22 months as political spectators.

Now comes a statistical inkling that the closing is starting to occur, but in a strange way. A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll of 1,058 adults taken Friday through Sunday and out Monday showed Obama's eight-point lead from early October had been trimmed to five points, 51-46.

But two interesting points from within the poll. It's not so much that McCain gained as that Obama slipped.

Also, the numbers show that for the first time a minority see McCain as carrying on the policies of Pres. George W. Bush, a theme the Obama campaign has relentlessly driven home all summer and autumn.

Put another way, for the first time 51% of Americans now see McCain as his own man, less likely to continue the unpopular Bush presidency.

The number seeing McCain as Bush III is now 49%, down from 56% in early October.

The separation from the Texan was obviously a key McCain goal in the last debate last week. Remember: Look, I am not George Bush. If Sen. Obama wanted to run against President Bush, he should have run four years ago.

That's a line many Republicans privately confide they think the Arizonan should have been using for months. Whether there's enough time -- and money -- left to drive that point home sufficiently in 14 days is the open question.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credit: Associated Press

Comments

[RM]

Biden's right; of course Obama looks weak to the rest of the world, which will start an international crisis.. McCain is strong and, like Ronald Reagan, would be respected from day 1. Remember how our US Embassy hostages were freed on Reagan's inauguration day after being held captive 444 days by Iran? They were held 444 days due to Jimmy Carter's weakness. Obama would be Jimmy Carter's 2nd term!

[Robert NYC]

McCain is not Bush.

Obama is however, the second coming of Fidel Castro, Huga Chavez, Karl Marx and every other socialist that has tortured this planet with populist promises for the last century.

[Derl]

Yes, yes....he should have started the "I'm not Bush" hissy fit months ago -- that would have given the Obama campaign even more time to fillet McCain in public, and more time for McCain to demonstrate what an intemperate and disconnected fool he is. The assertion that he's "not Bush" is patently laughable -- he is Bush, on all the philosophical drivers that count. Obama would have made hay with it.

[Mitch]

It is a tough outcome to predict. I think that McCain and Bush have made so many mistakes that it has resulted in an enormous opening for the Dems. To think that they are only 5points back is really interesting. My guess is if people voted party lines it is the Dems race to loose. I think the country has swung to a majority status from the Responsibility society to the Entitlement society, and Politicians are conditioned to act as to not inflict any pain - see the recent bail out.

Bold leadership and REAL CHANGE that is needed would be painful for everyone. My theory is that if the correct actions were taken, the pain would be felt more by the haves , than the have nots. But it is the whining of the have nots that has risen to the level of noise. Imagine a place and time where people who are in this country ILLEGALLY could have a political voice in society. That is the crimials have a louder voice and more persuasion with the political agenda than do others in society. Which intellectual in the media wants to explain the justice in that scenario, provided they are lazy or forgoing principle?

It is a strange and interesting time. I think the split polarization of this society is indication that yes, change is coming, but I hardly think the Politicians can be a solution provider to the problems they have created. one example: public education

[Mn Nice]

One party in total control is what's best. That way you don't have to debate, you just turn out the lights and keep the bill moving. You can pass anything you want. So get to those drive-in polls and vote for one party power! Lets get the monopoly started!

[Gary Ehrenfeld]

I do not put much credence in a poll of 1058. Who are they, where do they live, what age, and many other factors. I am sure you could poll another 1058 and come up with just the reverse in results.
CNN is not what I consider a fair and even political media for which to base my vote on.

[Mn Nice]

Polls are always accurate, like when Reagan-Mondale were said to be in a close race right before election. LOL Just vote for Obama like everyone is telling you. Lets get enough power to one party so you don't even have to hear another view point. That's what's best. Complete and total power to one party. I know that way the government will take care of my every need. Can I have some money for the holidays? I wasted my money, can I get some of yours? I won't need to get up early and go to work, I'm sick of it anyway. Tax those rich small businesses invoicing $250K a year after building it up from their garage. I'm too lasy to even think about doing anything close to hard work like that. One party Monopoly that's where it's at. Talk to me, tell me what I want to hear. Can I get a new morgage? Mine sucks, I didn't know I would really have to pay all that. Help me soon, I don't know what I would do without a handout.

[Lisa]

Unlikely McCain can pull back now. Sure, it's still an open race, but if I were a McCain supporter, I'd be feeling very, very nervous around now. Obama's got the money, the momentum and the numbers. True, it all counts on who shows up on election day, but Obama supporters are already more pumped up than McCain's, and McCain doesn't appear to have any back-up plan ready.

[Alex]

Oh wow, let's take one polling source and analyze it for significance. On the realclearpolitics poll average, McCain has been going up a couple points. This is the actual average trend, rather than Obama slipping.

[Joseph]

I'm a Democrat who is voting for McCain and Palin. The main stream media has worked overtime to sway us to vote for Obama; this election shouldn't be manipulated by the media. Biden's predictions about a major crisis within 6 months of Obama being elected is totally frightening. The media is relentless against Palin but gives Biden a free ride even when he is shouting angrily and making commments that with the help of the media destroyed Joe the Plumber's reputation. The Democrats control Congress and it's Pelosi's control that has helped ruin the economy. I'm a Democrat who supported the Clinton's 100% - but now I support McCain 100%.

[Lrez]

If McCain pulls this one out, I would be shocked. Obama is the Great Communicator--a quality which I admire in a President, by the way, just as Powell said he did.

However, an untested, young "Great Communicator" may lead us to who knows where.

This is not his time--4 or 8 more years down the road--if he proves his foreign policy credentials and patriotsm.

Right now both are in question with his former associations and his lack of experience.

He's young enough, there's plenty of time for him down the road if he proves himself worthy.

[thinkresults]

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday (day after CNN) shows back up to 8% again whereas CNN poll likely missed Sunday's news cycle:

Obama leads McCain 50 percent to 42 percent.

Basically, the numbers are solidifying.

[yours truly, Johnny Dollar]

If you want to live like a Cuban come February,
vote for Obama come November.

[egc52556]

Sure. Fine. Whatever. Anything that prevents the Obama volunteers from becoming complacent is good news to me.

But McCain is still going to lose.

[Stephen G. Barone]

Let me state emphatically that I would no more vote for Obama than I would McCain. Choosing one over the other is in effect voting for which parts of the Constitution you’re less frightened to see disemboweled. But if America needed another reason not to vote for John McCain—and there’s robust evidence that they don’t—I offer his performance on Letterman last Wednesday.
What we saw was the aspirant Leader of The Free World, the would-be triggerman for the most powerful nation on Earth, cow-towing and flagellating himself in front of a gapped-tooth clown whose artistic persona might best be described as “America’s Official Doofus.”
Read more at www.halfjoking.net

[Ivan]

My biggest concern is the possibility of errors in the count.
That's how the chimp won...twice!
That America, after being a democracy for a couple of centuries, has not perfected the voting process is a sad joke. Why do we always wait till the last minute to realize this failing? Katrina, 9/11 spring to mind.
Obama is ready, willing and able to win this election 'handily', to quote Mr. Clinton. Now, get the damn process under control. Is anybody listening?

[Nab]

I don’t see in McCain anything will benefit the middle class. I watch the three debates and have very strong believe that McCain careless about the middle class. Most of what he cares about is those people who are making 250,000 dollars a year and more. How about those less fortunate people, those make 95% of American people. McCain is criticizing Obama’s tax plan. Well, Mr. McCain do you see any fairness in your tax plan. Your Plan wants to tax the one that is making a $75,000 or less a year to pay same amount of tax as the one who is making millions and more!!!! WOW! That is not fair.
What is wrong if those rich families can help the less fortunate American to have more moneys in their hand to spend more and this in return will help to boos up the economy.
Also, McCain still using Joe the Plumber in his speeches even after it was clean that Joe is not a licensed Plumber and his Income is below those how is making 250,000 a year. In fact he owns $1500 in tax to America. He did not pay his share as every body does. Is this a patristic? McCain, Please stop Using Joe the Plumber in your speeches because it is all phony.

[BJ]

Clearly, people are still not convinced they know WHO the real OBAMA IS!

Obama's claim that he will "lower taxes for 95% of the population" is truly misleading. His admission of "spreading the wealth" clarifies what he intends to do... and THAT IS, 40% of the so-called 95% WHO DO NOT PAY TAXES, will receive tax credits paid for by the ones who pay taxes. While I have no problem with the 40% still not paying taxes, I do have a problem with them receiving tax credits! I want my tax dollars to go to services like more policemen, firemen, teachers, social programs etc... NOT WELFARE! The reason why more people have gotten off welfare is they limited the program to 5 years, and encouraged people to learn new skills in order for them to be employable. NOW all Obama wants to do is KEEP them on welfare, and discourage people from making their lives better by working harder and living up to the American dream!

It's as simple as that!

It is no small wonder that most of his "new donors" are people who have given him $5-100. Can you guess WHO these people are? Obviously they are the 40% who will benefit from Obama's tax cuts. You can call it an investment in their future. I call them lazy.

[Andrea]

Obama, McCain predict a tighter race and a new poll confirms it

ahahahah oh please that poll is already old news. Today is Tuesday my friend not Sunday. Catch up.

[john smith]

My bologna has a first name, its
the CNN phone poll...

Fact: Mccain/Palin have pulled thier staff out of CO IA and NM. This means he is hoping to take (and must take) FL NC VA and PA (obama currently has greater than a 10 point lead in PA, and leads in the other states as well) if the election were today Obama would win 364 to 171.

What the folks at LAtimes are doing here is looking at one national poll, when they should be looking at a collection of state polls (these can be found at a variety of websites) Statisically, a single national poll means nothing, it is not an accurate measure of even the mood of the nation.

The media is promoting this election like a tyson fight, the stats show that Mccain/Palin wont last one round, but NBC and FOX want everyone to be there to watch the blue states light up anyway (who can blame them).

The only question that remains is how badly Obama/Biden will mop the floor with the GOP.

[John Aidiniantz]

McCain should have chosen Nancy Reagan as his running mate. Even though she's in hospital with a broken pelvis, she would still make a better VP than Palin.

McCain clearly lacks judgement and credibiity in choosing Palin, who could end up becoming President of the USA if McCain's not careful with his health - or his teeth.

[Robert Burwell]

I guess you don't know that outing a CIA agent is an act of treason, and if commited during a time of war, carries with it the death penalty.

[Abandoned the Dem Party because of No-Obama]

We were strong Democrats until this election.

We abandoned the Democratic party because of Obama and will never return.

The cult of Obama is a scary mindless frenzy for a guy that is NOT fit to be President.

America will have serious buyer's remorse if this guy gets in. Can't even stand to look at his smug, self-righteous face, secretly laughing all the way to the White House that he put one over on the American public.

Then the talking heads can spend the next 4-8 years talking about the big mistake, where were the warning signs, etc...

Obama is going to be NO DIFFERENT from McCain. Even during this campaign, he has dropped his policies and adopted the Republican platform. He will do what serves his personally and assume he can smooth ruffled feathers with some slick talk. Obama-bots have given him that arrogance.

If you don't like McCain, vote 3rd party. Every 3rd party vote gets them more money for the next election. We desperately need a 3rd party in this country.

[Web Smith]

Our elected public servants are no longer listening to us. The bank bailout is not the only issue. The vast majority of American citizens have been against our continued presence in Iraq, against amnesty of illegal aliens, against more H-1B visas, against the continued shipment of our jobs offshore, and against more government growth and spending, but the government continues to support these things with legislation and to grow and spend. Almost half of us believe that 9/11 was an inside job, but no one is calling for an independent investigation. We want to wean ourselves from our dependence on foreign oil, but Congress and the Senate play with renewable tax credits like they are a volleyball. Who they are listening to is not clear, but it can only be surmised from looking at their lists of campaign contributions.

http://ewebsmith.com/Finance/notlistening.html

[Aycee]

Anyone watching this Presidential race and investigating the facts, knows that John McCain has voted with Bush 90-95% of the time. How some Americans can be so stupid as to believe that McCain would be any different than Bush is dumbfounding! Another point: if so many Americans are worried about the economy, why would they vote for McCain who promises to keep us in Iraq indefinitely at a cost of 10 billion dollars a month. In fact, it was McCain who pushed the strongest in Congress for this war, which has damaged our credibility in the world and had devasting effects on our Country economically and socially. Surely, the money spent in Iraq could be put to use in reviving our economy here at home. I am embarrassed at times at how ignorant some of my fellow Americans are.