New Times poll gives Obama 9-point lead over McCain among likely voters

On the eve of the final 2008 presidential debate, the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden holds an eight-point lead among 1,446 registered voters and a nine-point lead among 1,030 likely voters, according to a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg News poll.

Still no majority for anyone though.

It's 49-41 over John McCain-Sarah Palin among registered voters and 50-41 among likely voters.

The economy by far is the dominant factor on voters' minds, but if there was an international crisis, they'd trust McCain more. Gov. Palin's support-distaste is almost a wash.

Past debates have generally proven to be game-changers only when one side makes a huge gaffe, like Gerald Ford over Poland, although Walter Mondale later said he knew he'd lost in 1984 when Pres. Ronald Reagan made his famous remark about not holding his opponent's youth against him.

McCain's other hope to change the momentum is for ...

... some kind of foreign policy challenge to knock the public debate subject off the economy and onto foreign policy experience.

The new poll results also show voters' positions hardening, like cement, with 89% of both registered and likely voters "certain" of their vote, along with 96% of Republicans and 95% of Democrats.

When third-party candidates such as Bob Barr and Ralph Nader are added to the polling mix, the results change little. It's 47-39 Obama over McCain among registered voters and 48-39 among likely voters, with Nader capturing a non-decisive 3% of vote and Barr only 1%.

As we've seen all campaign, the Democrat holds an enthusiasm advantage among his party's supporters with 92% of Democrats enthusiastic about Obama and 68% very enthusiastic vs. 72% of Republicans enthusiastic over their standard bearer and 35% very enthusiastic.

Asked about their congressional party voting inclinations at this time, registered voters went 45-39 Democrat.

No surprise here: On the dominant issue it's 69% economy across the board with the No. 2 issue, the Iraq war, far behind at 27% for Democrats and 18% for Republicans. Healthcare, No. 3, is 19% among Democrats and 4% among GOP voters.

On positive feelings toward the top candidates, it's a little closer: Obama gets 53% of registered voters vs McCain's 47%.

And even closer on negative feelings, 34% for Obama and 39% McCain.

Among registered voters, they're about evenly divided in positive-negative feelings over Gov. Palin, 43-42.

But, interestingly, despite all the explosive publicity and negative counterattacks on her, the governor's impact on voting preferences is almost even; 27% say they're less likely to vote for McCain with her and 22% more likely.

Does Obama have the right experience to become president? Narrowly, registered voters now say yes, 49-42.

McCain is way ahead in that category among registered voters; 80% say yes and only 14% say no.

Twenty-three percent of respondents still feel they do not know enough about Obama, while only 15% say that about McCain.

Registered voters feel McCain has the best chance of achieving success in Iraq (49-38), while Obama gets the nod on the economy (48-36). McCain wins (48-39) in handling an international crisis while Obama "cares more about people like you" (47-31).

Obama's attack that McCain would be a continuation of President Bush's policies seems to be sticking, 52% now agree vs. 42% disagree.

Eight percent of registered voters say Obama's race gives them reservations about voting for him. Ninety percent say it's not an issue.

The complete Times print story is available here.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Photo credit: Justin Sullivan / Associated Press (top); Associated Press (bottom).

Comments

[C A Wren]

WHY ISNT THE PRESS ALL OVER THIS?????

Palin has close ties to the some pretty interesting people in Wasilla.

Google: Steve Stoll and Palin.

Extreme? Anti-American? You must judge for yourself.

DO WE REALLY KNOW SARAH?

PLEASE do your own research.

Do your homework.

This Woman Could Become President.

[rob]

Interesting trends. I'm not certain a "foreign policy crisis" would have much of an effect, after all, the Administration has been beating the foreign policy drum for years, and Americans have developed sensitive hearing on the issue. For example, although their support for Iraq was tepid, so was their wish to pull out immediately.

And the economy is, on many levels, a national security issue. The US has been forced to play nice with other world powers to get its bailout, and that makes cowboy diplomacy look obsolete. Furthermore, we can't finance any more foreign adventures owing to a bailout that stands to match or beat the costs of the war.

[Alec]

Do we really know Sarah?
Do we really KNOW the Presidential candidate- Barack Barry Soetoro Hussein Obama?
"Spread the wealth around?"
Is that not a Marxist or Socialist tenet?
Wealth redistribution?

The press has been all over Governor Palin and her family for the short time she has been on the national scene.
Meanwhile- the "lamestream" media has been working very hard to get their Teflon Candidate into office.
This is the year that the media died.

Edward R. Murrow is spinning in his grave.
Shame on you Brokaw, Gibson, Couric, Matthews, Olbermann and the rest.

God Bless America-
And don't listen to the polls- they are skewed by the Democrats by the pollsters.

Save our great country.
We want positive energy- not Communism and Radicalism.

America is not what it used to be.
America is a downright mean country.
The KKK of America.
G.D. America.
Hate, venom, bile spewing by the left.

Stand up and fight, America!

McCain-Palin 2008

[dougj]

"On positive feelings toward the top candidates, it's a little closer: Obama gets 53% of registered voters vs McCain's 47%."

"And even closer on negative feelings, 34% for Obama and 39% McCain."

Gee, sounds like both candidates have about the same favorables. Except Obama is +19 overall and McCain is +8. That's a statistically significant indication that Obama is viewed more favorably than McCain. So why can't the LA times acknowledge this rather than say each of the individual numbers is "close"? I guess that's what happens when you hire Republican press secretaries to write your analysis.

[Paul Stewart]

If this is the results of a LAT/Reuters poll, then the results indeed will be more favorable than this for Obama / Biden. Notably so.

Good.

[Dave Danenberg]

THis liberal paper won't let anything liberal be said!!!!!

[Kool Aid Hater]

Why isn't the press all over Obama's statements to a plumber in Ohio about spreading the wealth around (from the successful to the not so much?)

It was even caught on video.

This country is not about redistribution of wealth.

Do your homework. This man could become President.

[Frank]

Obama's "plan" is to raise taxes and waste tax payer money.

It's naive to think he'll do anything else. He's a lawyer with zero business background. His lucky break is that 95% of the main stream media is behind him since he helps sell newspapers.

What a joke! A year after Obama is elected the headline will be "Small CHANGE that we can't believe in!"

[Justsaying Joe]

During the past 6 weeks, McCain showed who he truly is and how he would be as president, that is, blundering, reckless, not-so competent politician. If he had chosen Mitt Romney, distanced himself from Bush, and talked economy , then we would not be looking at totally different poll numbers. Choosing Palin was reckless and foolish. Suspending campaign was reckless and foolish. Going negative and personal when the stock market all but crashed was ill-conceived. This is what one would expect from a guy who finished near the bottom of his naval academy, not from someone I want leading my country. Obama is extremely lucky, as he has his own limitations, that his opponent imploded so spectacularly and the times favor his side so fortunately.

[Donald]

Time has never ran a poll that was accurate ! The data
used is slanted towards the democrats. The real poll
will come on Nov. 4th when we vote McCain/ Palin into office. ZOGBY has it with in 4 poits are basicly a dead
even race.
All the Times polls are to make Democrats feel good now
wait and lose!

[I've had it with the media]

Obama may be leading in the polls, but it is the liberal media and all the money (follow the money, bet ia greal deal of it came from illegal sources; i.e. foreign governments and foreign organizations, there are ways to hid the sources). If elected, this will be first time in our 200+ history that this nation has elected a radical socialist president and commander in chief. While it will not affect me and my husband a great deal as we are senior citizens and while our economy would eventually recover (gasoline prices are now going down, too), our country will never, ever recover from an Obama presidency. I feel for the young people of this nation as they will be the ones who will lose some of the freedoms we have had. I attended a funeral for a relative who fought at Normandy, the Battle of the Bulge and Korea in the infantry at Ft. Sam Houson National Cemetery in San Antonion yesterday. It was established in the 1800's. Looking at rolls upon rolls of the white crosses I though of all the men and women who sacrified so much for the freedom of our country. Will their sacrifices be to no avail?

[steve rodriguez]

An Obama America = One big welfare State!!!

[Steve]

Google: Obamacrimes
Obamas Law suit.

Extreme? Anti-American? You must judge for yourself.

DO WE REALLY KNOW Obama?

PLEASE do your own research.

Do your homework.

This Man Could Become President

we can say the same thing...
WHY ISNT THE PRESS ALL OVER THIS?????
but we already now the answer the press is for Obama.

[steve rodriguez]

Who is this Barrack Obama what has he ever accomplished?
who are his friends? We don't know much about him at all!

[steve rodriguez]

C.A,

Are Sarah's friends more interesting than Obama's friends? Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright, Louis Farrakhan, Alcorn, you libs are so blind and hypocritical!!!!!

[astrochicks.com]

I would much rather have a President who is intelligent, well spoken, and talks about hope. Versus a war mongering, racist, hateful, and angry old man. McCain is bringing the worst out in America. The wackos who know zero about politics.

Obama represents all the people, represents peace, and prosperity. McCain is too old for the Presidency and Sarah Palin is just as bad. She was found guilty of abusing her power and I think she would do the same in the White House.

[truthtopower40]

Here is something NEW for you all to mull over....

The head of McCain's transition team, William Timmons, was a lobbyist working on behalf of SADDAM HUSSEIN through much of the 1990s. He sought to have the international sanctions against Saddam eased. He was also involved with two unregistered lobbyists, Samir Vincent and Tongsun Park, later convicted of felonies, on a deal with the Iraqis in which they hoped to be awarded a contract to purchase and resell Iraqi oil. Timmons, Vincent, and Park stood to share at least $45 million if the business deal went through. Vincent and Park reported directly to two of Saddam's top aides and reported back from them to Timmons.

I'll see your Ayers and raise you a Timmons!

So tell me again who is the one with the fatally flawed judgment?

[BJ]

An OBAMA PRESIDENCY would be a DISASTER to this country!

No other candidate has ever had so many shady and dubious characters or organizations in his resume. HOW can this man even be considered for the highest office of the US? ALL HIS AFFILIATIONS date back to at least 15 years! And now the liberal media paints him LILY WHITE? Give me a break.

OBAMA = ACORN = VOTER FRAUD = WELFARE STATE = downfall of America as we know it.

[truthtopower40]

"Spread the wealth around" must be today's talking point sent down from on high to all you obedient Republican posters. It's a great example of how you can comnpletely distort the meaning of a phrase by ripping it totally out of context. I don't suppose any of you will bother to read it, but here is a transcript of the entire conversation between Obama and a voter from which the "quote" was taken.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/10/spread-the-weal.html#comments

Incidentally, anybody who thinks Obama is a "radical socialist" doesn't know the meaning of either word.

[Vivi]

McCain, if elected, would rise to the occasion just as Obama would have to do. Palin is not running for POTUS. Comments about her, negative that is, smells like bias against a woman being vice president. Shame on those who are writing the Senator's obit. That's bias against the elderly cloaked in concern. O. is 47 and as I see it, that's not exactly "young". Some of these reponses to polls may be an instance of telling the pollsters what they want to hear. I refused a poll twice this year. It's unfair that the MSM are already awarding electoral votes, and the general election hasn't happened. Every voter should go to the polls and vote your choice no matter what the media are saying.

[Yolanda]

So far all the polls that I have seen or heard about by the media has been biased. I have not even been able to find anywhere on the Net to poll. Many persons I have spoken with are of the same opinion. You may have to advertise your poll options to others that do not think as you do. Challenge?

[BJ]

The MSM is using reverse psychology on John McCain and his campaign.

His campaign needs to keep reminding people WHO the REAL OBAMA IS!

No other candidate has had SO MANY SHADY CHARACTERS in HIS RESUME!