National electoral map: Barack Obama steadily leads John McCain as next debate nears

Here are the latest numbers from the twice-weekly studies of ongoing state polls by Karl Rove & Co.

There's no real change in the Electoral College numbers, which are continuing to look good for Barack Obama. He holds a 259-163 electoral vote lead over Republican John McCain with another 116 votes residing in the toss-up category based on recent state polling.

Rove notes that there have been 26 new state polls since last weekend, but still no change in the results.

However, the freshman Illinois senator now holds leads in Ohio and Virginia, albeit within the margins of error, and is tied in Florida and the usually GOP country of North Carolina. This puts him close to reaching that magic clinching number of 270 electoral votes for the first time since midsummer, albeit hypothetically for now.

The next round of state polling may show the impact of Thursday night's vice presidential debate between Alaska Republican Gov. Sarah Palin and Delaware Democratic Sen. Joe Biden. The next presidential debate is Tuesday in Nashville.

A chart showing the weekly poll results since June 1 is available by clicking on "read more" below. The study's methodology is also explained there.

--Andrew Malcolm

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Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

This electoral map and chart are regular features of The Ticket and are published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.

Comments

[Brian]

If Obama wins Whites will be living in a reverse apartheid situation.　The liberals who are getting us into this situation are clueless. History demonstrates they get us into trouble with their experimentation . (see Stalinism and Maoism). There is no such thing as colorblindness, or "post-race". Whites will be discrimnated against and marginalized if Obama wins....you mark my words.Obama=Mugabe. African-Americans will let you know who's boss.

I am not a right wing idiot but a left-leaning, educated, advanced　degrees and north-eastern bred. You cannot Palin-bash my credentials. Luckily I am living abroad already.

[steve rodriguez]

Barrack Obama is a reincarnation of Jimmy Carter!

[Jason]

I would assume then Brian that we must keep "them" down? Any non white must be kept out of power by your reckoning. One would assume that the only logical next step would be to create territories or separate but equal states or countries for the different races so that we are not intermingled in order to avoid this problem?

[T]

Brian, Americans have spoken loud and clear that this is election is clearly not about race buddy, but bringing about change to the politics that have not worked over the past 8 years. It's time for people who have the same mentality as you to step aside and stop acting as thought they are the most capable and intelligent people in the world and give others a chance to put this country back on track. For hundreds of years blacks have suffered from racism and mistreatment by whites who really and truly believe they are better than everyone and it's time for that ignorant mentality to cease. This is America, full of all different types of races and that's what makes this a great country. Blacks will not feel as though we are in command after Obama wins, they will feel a sense of empowerment, but not in a cocky and arrogant way as whites have done for hundreds of years. People are tired of it.

[anastasia]

Yes, Brian, you're right, it is lucky that you're living abroad already - lucky for the rest of us in the U.S., that is.

[Dumb Buster]

OBAMA IS HALF WHITE!!!!!!!!!!!

Anyway, there is no way someone educated would make such a ludicrous claim as the KKK Grandwizard above

[moe.ron]

Karl Rove Co Polls?????

[Carla]

Brian, you are ridiculous. But I hope that if you are right, you become the nation's first white slave.

[Chris]

Brian, you may lean left, and you may be educated, but sadly that does not mean you are not RACIST, as you have so ably demonstrated.

[jacob]

wow..... did someone take a time machine back to alabama 1835? brian? are you from .... the past?

[NinaK]

Brian, it IS a very good thing you are not in America. Haven't YOU heard?? This is 2008 not 1950,60 and 1970!! True, many of your ilk are still around; however, the MAJORITY of Americans recognize our country for what it is, the melting pot of the world with EQUAL RIGHTS for EVERYONE!! Yes, I know, there are those like you who would want to keep NONE-WHITES in little unlit cubbyholes: Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, Chinese, Japanese, Italians, Spaniards, etc....while WHITES act as if they are all supreme. God created each and everyone of us, HE LOVES VARIETY, but he created ALL of us as EQUALS. Just imagine how boring our world would be if we all were "White". You'd be killing each other like barracudas trying to prove one sect of you was better than the rest of the whites. Senator Obama has more integrity, honesty, character, wisdom, vision, superb judgement, and understanding, and ompassion than GWB, McCain and Pilan put together! I am a white female who has attended a private school with students from Pakistan, Thailand, Japan, Colombia, Mexico, Kenya, and other countries as well as students from throughout the United States, here in America. There should be more schools like this as you actually learn about the cultures of other countries and you actually come to respect them and to know that these people are no different than anyone else. We are ALL PEOPLE, Period!!

[Yellow Journalism]

Andrew MalColm blogging Karl Rove statistics.

Hee hee

Pretty funny LA Times.

[wuj]

Brian said "I am not a right wing idiot but a left-leaning, educated, advanced　degrees and north-eastern bred. You cannot Palin-bash my credentials. Luckily I am living abroad already."

I say good riddance to bigotry.

[may]

I will vote Mccain and
Sarah Palin not because their are white, but because they are the change we need. We do not need taxes cut from weatly , we do not like to still from somebody else, I think that is a stupidity, because wealthy people and company's will hit
us back, this is not right way to the problems we are facing right know. This taxes will create more problems it is not a solution.
He will be a puppet for family Clinton trying to please them and to destroy the healthcare system.
Is better for youall to check everything before you will vote something and just go there blind.
I am a democrat and I do not like at all their ideeas, I am very disappointed about democrats.

[BJ]

McCain needs to stop sounding so droll when he speaks... how can he elicit excitement, when he shows such a lack of it?

I'm still waiting for the LA TIMES to reprint that article I read a month or so ago, about Obama campaign's plan to register BLACK criminals who have not yet been sentenced, as well as those who have completed their sentence. I KNOW I READ THIS!!!

[PulSamsara]

Why would America REWARD complete Republican failure ?

We wont.

[Domingo Tavella]

As November approaches, irrational fears in the white population will begin to override the concerns over the economy. McCain can easily and safely exploit such fears, especially Obama's "path crossing" with leftists radicals. White voters will be increasingly torn between the prospect of sinking back into economic despair if they elect McCain, and accepting that a black man can be their top boss if they elect Obama. Hard choices indeed.

[HawkinCA]

Am a former Republican who is now Independent, I am voting for Obama. I work on Wall Street and am doing fine but do not trust Republicans any longer. They have created the largest government in U.S. history, doubled our national debt in 8 years to the tune of 5 trillion dollars and created a new form of capitalism called Communist Capitalism. They've done everything they always said the Democrats would do. Clinton did none of these things, nor will Obama. He is a pragmatic young man who will actually disappoint many liberals when he governs from the center. The Republicans, Bush, and McCain are hypocrites not to be trusted. Let's get this election over with so we can once again get back to being the great nation we've always been.

[Truth]

As someone who mistakenly voted for Bush in the last a election because I was stupid enough to believe the lies of the administration, I must say I was duped along with many others and I am sorry we allowed Bush to continue his policies. I am sorry for the brave men and women who were deployed to the wrong battlefield with a flawed plan for success, yet I am always grateful for their service and responding to their leaders call to duty.

On the polls I am not surprised John McCain and Sarah Palin offer more of the same period. Sarah Palin does not have the intelligence or foresight to be V.P. and certainly not President. Her ability to answer questions regarding her political knowledge, laws, the war, international domain with rhetoric, distortions, and lies reminds me of Bush/Cheney.

Anyway, I have vetted the candidates and I say to the Republicans, Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin thanks but no thanks to that bridge to nowhere, I have been on it for a few years now and I just want to get off.

[GWB]

"I am not a right wing idiot but a left-leaning, educated, advanced　degrees and north-eastern bred."
No Brian you are just racist.

[Scott Bledsoe]

It would be interesting to overlay a map with the percentage of college graduates over the map above.

Interesting to note that most of the states supporting mccain by wide margins are also those that invest the least in its residents' educations.

Ignorance breeds republicans, and so does bigotry and greed. Nice mix!

[JC]

Just a message from a fellow european: We in Europe respect Obama more than MacCain for several reason.
He's somehow an image of this american dream stating that anyone can make it to the top while we in Europe are mostly based on where you come from will always define what you'll end up with kind of attitude.
He's been against the war in Irak, which was a stupid lame idea in the first place and which was brought up with lies and despite of international condemn.
I'm planning to move to the USA to work within a year. I'm well educated and I just believe that rewards will be greater there than in Europe. And trully I would really reconsider this if MacCain was elected with his dumb vp that reminded me the movie "idiocracy"...
Have a nice day

[alarclin]

"I am ... a left-leaning, educated, advanced　degrees and north-eastern bred. You cannot Palin-bash my credentials."

Okie-doke. But you've already Palin-mashed your own syntax, I see.

[diane]

Sarah palin is not one of us, middle class as she caims. Check out how much she maes and what her home is worth. She did not hold up to Biden in the debate and I do not feel she would be up to the task as VP or President. I know if McCain is elected we will get 8 more years of the same administration as we have now. Bush has done enough damage and McCain will continue to do the same. This country took a risk and voted in Bush, well take a chance on Obamanow. are you afraid he may suceed where Bush did not. Give me Clinton any day as he helped our country and I believe so will Obama. America... vote Obama he IS the best person for the job!

[dan]

Polls will move again...many voters are just now paying attention and their initial impression of Obama is a good one. But the more they find out about Obama, the less they will like. All McCain has to do is start exposing Obama's economic policy for what it really is..and drive it home during the last debate.

Obama's young supporters are still idealist...I remember when I was one. But when you get married and take on the responsibility of raising a family, you quickly become a realist. I know that doesn't mean much to those who think being able to kill unborn babies is the single most important issue...but to the rest...pay attention.

Realist's understand the tax breaks the big bad oil companies get...help keep our gas prices at the pump low. It's really nothing more than a type of government subsidy via a reduced tax rate. The tax breaks that Obama wants to take from the oil companies are really nothing but tax rates that have been lowered from "outrageous" to "reasonable". Remove those tax breaks, returning oil companies to outrageous tax rates and they will certainly pass it on to us.

If Obama is allowed to do as he says...the government gets the money and we get higher gas prices. Obama's plan has the same net effect of simply raising the taxes at the pump....but you don't hear him saying that. He would rather count on your idealistic ignorance, by having you believe he is taxing the oil companies rather than you.

This is not change...this is the predictable results of a tax and spend policy. Realist's know the government can not spend itself out of a recession. When you try...it results in increased inflation and higher interest rates which in turn produces a stagnate economy...which results in lower tax revenues.

Obama's promised government bureaucracies will then exceed the tax revenue expected to pay for them. So he will have to increase taxes to pay for his 300+ billion dollar a year increase in government spending...and the only place left to generate it...is on the backs of the middle class. Like I said...you can't spend yourself out of a recession, It has been tried before.

If you don't believe me...the next time you are low on funds, go buy a large ticket item you need and put it on your credit card...and when the bill comes in...explain to me how that helps your situation.

Think about it people, use your brain. When is the last time the government implemented anything that didn't exceed the original specified costs? So when Obama's government bureaucracies cost more then he has led you to believe....where will he get the money ?

Oh, he will give a great speech on how we are all in this together...right before he raises YOUR taxes.

BTW, you do realize the ones that will benefit the most from Obama's tax plan, are the individuals that make between 90K and 200K? So when he talks middle class...you now know who he is talking about. Is that you?

The salary of a US senator is $169,300.00. According to Obama they qualify as part of middle class he plans to help the most in reducing their taxes. Coincidence? Or is it to insure the senate will back his economic plan? I will let you decide.

[TOm]

Does anyone remember that Dick Cheney was going to be tried in the U.S. Supreme Court on the issue of allowing Oil Company executives to write the Bush Administration's energy policy?

Probably not, because his court date was September 11, 2001. It was the lead story in all the newspapers that we didn't end up reading that day because our eyes were glued to the disaster unfolding on the TV. Needless, to say, Cheney did not show up for his trial that day and spent the next six months in an undisclosed location for "national security reasons."

Flash forward six years:

Consumer shop for mortgages based upon their earning and budgets. Lenders award mortgages based upon earnings and expenses.

Prior 2007, it was a generally accepted theory that oil prices above $70 per barrel would trigger a meltdown.

As oil prices hit $140 per barrel and home energy costs doubled and gasoline prices quadrupled, Americans now found that their old budgets no longer balanced. With expenses exceeding incomes, people had the choice between paying to fill their cars to drive to work (or to drive around to look for new work) OR paying their fixed expenses.

Try as they might to balance their household budgets, exponentially higher energy costs forced solvent families into insolvency across the board. Previously solid mortgages became shaky. Record foreclosures swept the country. Companies holding mortgage based securities began to fail, using all available credit to keep themselves afloat. Commercial credit dried up, leading to more business failures, etc.

And here we are!

What does a failed energy policy look like?

We are looking at it dead in the face. Cheney's energy policy was written for Oil Companies by Oil Companies, and they have had record profits through all this. If we had started eight years ago with a responsible energy policy from the administration to get us off the oil addiction, we would not be in this mess now.

As I see it now: I blame DICK CHENEY and his corrupt energy policy for our current total economic meltdown.

I can not see how McPalin is going to be any different.

(BTW, what's the difference between George W. Bush and Sarah Palin?? Lipstick)

Sarah Palin for VP? "Thanks, but no thanks!"

[MATTHEW DUROJAIYE]

glad to hear of th landslide victory that Obama had