National electoral map: McCain gains Indiana while Obama holds 277

Nearly two dozen new state polls in recent days show the Democratic Party ticket headed by Sen. Barack Obama holding strong with 277 hypothetical electoral votes, seven more than needed for election, but Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin have regained traditionally Republican Indiana from the tossup category.

This according to the latest state-by-state poll research compiled by Karl Rove & Co. and published in The Ticket by permission every few days.

With Indiana's 11 electoral votes, the first time since early September that the Republican ticket has gained, McCain-Palin now hold 174 electoral votes while another 87 remain in the tossup category.

A chart showing the weekly movements of this hypothetical electoral vote race is available after the jump, along with an explanation of the research's methodology. Click on the Read more line below.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Speaking of electoral votes, you can still get free instant alerts on all Ticket items like this flashed directly to your cellphone by registering here at Twitter.

Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and 15. States within a 3-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as tossups; states outside the 3-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its 3 electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

This map and chart published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.

Comments

[Scott]

I can only imagine that because these stats would make Obama the winner (even if McCain picked up the remaining "toss up" states that you felt it ok to use Karl Roves poll?

Otherwise, why rely on that pig?

[larry clifton]

Obama will not release medical records, no one may criticise him or liberal dimocrat media calls him or her a racist. These are dark days for America, dark as in ominus, no racial allegations, please....
The Democrat Party and media (which is same) has manipulated this election from the start and should be put in their place via boycotts against advertisers and falling ratings and viewer/readership.
Do your part!

[Jim Dandy]

Maybe the question for the Palin/McCain ticket should be:

How sick is John McCain?

Read this:

http://www.counterpunch.org/cockburn10122008.html

Do we really want Todd and Sarah running (or should I say ruining) the country?

[MP]

I am very disappointed that the Republicans, especially the campaign managers, have chosen to go very negative - from the middle name to the minister to the Weatherman - without laying out a clear, distinct, and complete economic plan. The Republicans smeared McCain in 2000 in South Carolina, he takes a cartoon character VP candidate who tries to pass as an executive (executives usually know what they read and think), and the campaign takes the Party down. I am not happy with Bill and Hillary's involvement in the entire campaign either. As an Independent and veteran, I ask myself who I would rather lead me. It is Barack and Joe. Whoever wins knows that there is much work, sacrifice, and cost in addressing the war drum mentality and "let's keep the government off our backs" (which benefits the greedy on Wall Street and the Internet and not the legitimate and ethical corporate teams). The housing crisis started in the early 90s when they were already packaging mortgages like mine and selling them off to speculators who got greedy - just like the appraisers, the pseudo-bankers (if you have no capital, you should not be allowed to "originate" loans), and everyone else. Greed, hatred, laziness, lust, gluttony, anger, and pride will bring down great nations, not "the barbarians at the gates". Forget TV, manipulators like Rush, Dick Morris, and Begala, and return to the basic values which built this nation. I am not "proud" of America, but I love America.

[paz9]

Great post by MP. I am also a conservative supporting Obama. He is brilliant, energetic and a dedicated family man. McCain is on his second wife (I hope her drug problems are firmly in the past) and can't decide how to support Bush while appearing a Maverick.

On the VP issue, it would be laughable if not for the weight of the matter. Do people vote for politician under investigation these days? I must be old fashioned.

The upshot is responsible leadership. It is very clear who has it and who does not. That's how you fix this mess we are in.

[susan]

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

[shahla gore]

I am a democrat and Hillary supporter, but I will vote for McCain because I am frankly scared of Obama, I think the devil we know is better than the devil we don't know. He is not showing his true color, he is too left for me. Him and his wife both are racist, read his book, it is scary, he clearly says he will take Muslim's side if he has to, he hates white people, so does his wife. I am worried about this country if Obama becomes the president.

[Shane Hamby]

This is in response to shahla gore who wrote about Obama being scary. What drugs are you smoking? Do you even believe your own words? How do you come up with these things. To be honest, your comments are what scare me the most !

[The Daily Charter Of Macomb, MI]

I have observed an interesting almost mirror-image of the electoral map from Karli Rove and a map of 'Forced Unionism' vs. Right to Work States. The maps when overlayed are almost identical. It essentially confirms to me that if Obama wins then the implications for the Right to Work States are to learn to 'spread the wealth'. The map overlay can be viewed at my blog:
www.lemacks.com/wordpress. I look forward what other likely voters think.