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National electoral map: Obama gains two states, McCain one

With 20 days to go until the general election, new research on state polls by Karl Rove & Co. shows two more states moving into the electoral vote column of Sen. Barack Obama and one other state moving from tossup into the column of Sen. John McCain's states.

Obama in recent days (before last night's final debate) has gained Florida and Colorado, a total of 36 hypothetical electoral votes, to give Obama a new total of 313, well beyond the 270 necessary.

McCain gains Indiana's 11 electoral votes to give him a total of 174. Only 51 votes in four states remain in the tossup category, as shown in yellow on the map below, courtesy of Karl Rove & Co. The study's methodology and a chart showing weekly movements from July are available by clicking on the Read more line below.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Karl Rove National electoral map between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama 10-14-08

Karl Rove electoral chart by weeks Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama presidential race 10-14-08

Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Map and Chart published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.

 
Comments () | Archives (5)

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Since when is Karl Rove a reliable source of unbiased statistical research? I trust karl marx more than this guy with predicting the outcome of an election. He manufactured a win for Bush in 2000 and he seems to be doing it here for Obama, but why?

So by this map, if I'm putting my public school math skills to good use, even if McCain were to win all the "toss-up" states, Obama still wins. So McCain basically has to snag several of the Obama states.

Question: In Rove's "Obama category states," how many likely voters are claiming they're "undecided" on average in polls? At this point, I'm assuming 1/4 of these people are not planning to vote but don't want the person asking them to know they're lazy or don't vote (kind of like walking by a street evangelist who offers you a bible and you say "No thanks, I have one" when you really don't have one). The other 3/4, I'm not sure about. I suspect more of them will break for McCain than Obama at this point.

Is there a state where a 50(McCain)/30(Obama)/20(not voting) split of Undecideds would throw the state to McCain?

If Obama wins all the toos-ups his total will be 364. That will be still short of Clinton's 1992 win. It shows that the country is still divided in red and blue states though Obama is able to patch the differences a little

To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

This is a GOP scam from Karl Rove.

You need to vote, or Obama will not win!


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About the Columnist
A veteran foreign and national correspondent, Andrew Malcolm has served on the L.A. Times Editorial Board and was a Pulitzer finalist in 2004. He is the author of 10 nonfiction books and father of four. Read more.
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