John McCain's political guru explains how he wins Pennsylvania

Amid reports of the John McCain camp narrowing the number of states in which it is truly competing, all eyes in the political world have turned toward Pennsylvania (in part because that's where the candidate spent his day, hard at it on the stump).

With polls showing Barack Obama poised to win at least four states President Bush carried in 2004 -- Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia and Colorado -- the question has become: Which major state could McCain snatch from the Democratic column to maintain GOP control of the White House?

That's where Pennsylvania, with its 21 electoral votes, comes in, as Newsweek's Andrew Romano adroitly detailed earlier today. Appropriately, Romano also cast a skeptical eye on that strategy, in light of what the Pennsylvania polls have been indicating.

McCain's political director, Mike Duhaime, counters such naysaying.

He conducted a conference call with reporters Tuesday afternoon, and The Times' Bob Drogin relates that the operative insisted "we feel we're going to be successful" in Pennsylvania.

One reason: Duhaime termed McCain the most appealing GOP presidential candidate to Pennsylvania voters since Ronald Reagan.

He also broke down some numbers from the '04 race, arguing that . . .

. . . since Democrat John Kerry won the state by only 140,000 votes, McCain "needs to flip" only 2,000 votes in each of the state's 67 counties.

Here's what else Duhaime had to say, as passed along by Drogin:

He said the campaign is operating three dozen offices in the state and is making hundreds of thousands of phone calls every week to identify and persuade potential GOP voters. The data-mining efforts are aimed at identifying former Hillary Rodham Clinton supporters and independents who are prepared to consider McCain's message. He said the internal data is "trending" in McCain's direction and is showing "a lot of things" not apparent in the opinion polls.

Overall, Duhaime said, McCain has drawn strong support from what he called a "Democrats for McCain" movement in and around Scranton and in the state's western Rust Belt region. "That gives us optimism," he said.

McCain anticipates good news as well, he said, in the southern and central part of the state, near Harrisburg, York and Lancaster -– all cities that the candidate, his wife, Cindy, or running mate Sarah Palin have visited in the last few days.

Duhaime predicted that McCain would surprise prognosticators even in Philadelphia, a Democratic stronghold where Obama is seen to hold a hammerlock. Kerry won the city by more than 400,000 votes four years ago, winning every single ward. Duhaime said that Obama wouldn't be able to repeat that feat, however, and that McCain would garner more votes than Bush did in the city.

The McCain focus on Pennsylvania may end up paying dividends, given how easily Clinton, in April's Democratic primary, bested Obama in areas of the state such as Scranton. But if that prediction about Philadelphia pans out, jaws will be dropping on election night.

-- Don Frederick

Photo credit: European Pressphoto Agency   

Comments

[scootmandubious]

How McCain can win Pennsylvania? It is obvious he only thinks he can win by lying about Barack Obama.

The robocalls and overall tenor of his campaign disqualify McCain for the presidency.

I am still wondering when the Democrats are going to focus attention on the 1992 hearings about POW MIAs. McCain was allegedly the driving force behind refusing to allow classification on the files and ending the inquiry into what happened to the MIA's in Vietnam.

Watch the video and decide for yourself. Anyone can google the info for themselves. The question isn't what John McCain did, but what his motivations were for doing it. This isn't partisan. Some of the harshest statements on this video from Republicans.

Decide for yourselves. And ask yourself why this factual event from the past has not even entered the dialogue. Yet, the fraudulent William Ayers association is fair game?

It is the video that McCain doesn't want anyone to see:
http://scootmandubious.blogspot.com/2008/10/john-mccains-betrayal-of-pow-mia.html

[freddie]

keep dreaming and wishing for what for miracles, I hope you are still looking to Carl Rove tactic to pull this off now, but the problem with that is that the American people have now seen thru' the tactic......see ya on innauguration day

[HedgeBaby]

I live in PA. I see at least 3 - 4 times as many Obama/Biden yard signs as McCain/Palin. The majority of Pennsylvanians just want the McPalin team to pack up their lies and go home - we don't want them here. The politics of the past 8 years have decimated our state. Why on earth would we want more of the same? McGrampy and Caribou Barbie need to go back to the rocks they crawled out from under. PA for Obama/Biden!!!!!!

[VJ Machiavelli]

This is the same "BRAIN" that ran Rudy's campaign into the ground. Why they decided to bring him onboard the McCain Campaign I don't know. I hate second guessing, but HE WAS ONE OF THE "BRAINS" behind Rudys campaign that was a failure. Why hire a "BRAIN" of a failed campaign. Thats like hiring a general who lost every battle to the enemy.

VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com

[Jeremy]

I should point out Scranton -- Joe Biden's hometown -- is nowhere near Western Pennsylvania nor the state's western Rust Belt. There also doesn't seem to be a lot of analysis here -- Pennsylvania now has 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans, a big change since 2004. And McCain has lost a good 10 points over the last 6 weeks here. How is that trending in his favor? It's natural for the flaks to say it but shouldn't you run the words through the truth machine a little bit?

[lj9283]

You know the conversation should begin about how the Republican Party threw it's candidate for President under the bus, and should those who participated be held accountable for such an underhanded move.

When Mr. McCain suspended his campaign to return to Washington to deal with the economic crisis, the House Republicans did nothing short of telling the world that Mr. McCain was not a leader they would follow.

They publicly humiliated their candidate, and in doing so denigrated his leadership qualities.

If Mr. McCain loses this election, the renegade House Republican's should share a heaping helping of contribution to that loss.

[Mitch]

Don't have enough information to know if this is workable or not. At least theres some sense that McCain has some knowledgable professionals driving his campaign towards the finish line with optimism

[Eugene]

Amazing delusions here. Strategy number #1: fix the voting machine.

[Democrats '08]

The Republican "leaders" in Washington have failed America, they are inferior losers, resistance is futile, I repeat resistance is futile, join the Democrats, Liberals, Independents and all others and support your NEW and SUPERIOR Democratic leader Barrack Obama. NO MORE BUSH, NO MORE MCCAIN, NO MORE REPUBLICANS, they had more than enough time to prove themselves and they have FAILED us.

[hey]

ummm scranton is not in the state's western rust belt region.. it is in north east PA... cmon.. check google maps!

OBAMA/BIDEN 08

[Jim Terr]

This is a confusing opener: "Amid reports of the John McCain camp narrowing the number of states in which it is truly competing,.." Do you mean he's becoming competitive in fewer states? If so, you're making it sound like it's something he wished to accomplish (?)

[mvr]

Somehow I don't think that the average worker in PA is going to get behind a party that is willing to let their jobs disappear just because John McCain says he isn't George Bush. Large swaths of Pennsylvania are feeling the pain of an economy run for the rich. I doubt that anyone who takes Hilary seriously will think Sarah Palin is a good substitute, and John McCain shows just how in touch he is with the average voter when he went for that strategy. I'm obviously biased insofar as I don't find McCain's working class schtick sincere, but I'll bet I'm right.

[Michael Lee]

McCain is a lousy campaigner but a great canditate.
The reverse is true for Obama.

I think McCain supporters are just afraid of Obama supporters so they just don't talk about it in public.

Who wants a brick through their window?

[Mr....]

He is crazy. It's that simple....'Hey folks! Even though I'm down, I'm still going to win because of my CRAZY logic." It reminds me of how Bush talks about Iraq.

[A.G. in Philly]

This sounds like fantasy football to me. I live in Philly and my family is in Scranton. I don't know a single person who is voting Mc/Palin.

[pa voter]

those hundreds of thousands of phone calls are alienating the electorate here

[Brett Walters]

Everyone in my family is voting for Obama. I don't see how McCain can compete in PA.

[Rice]

Whomever told the McCain campaign that they could win Pennsylvania in a year of an economic/financial crisis run by a Republican administration was really in big time denial. The state is vastly middle class, has seen a good million jobs go overseas during the past 25 years...they remember what national party the robber barons were from....and now they hear McCain say that a tax cut for them is a government giveaway, socialism....all the while the fat cats on Wall Street continue to offshore their jobs...while they on Wall Street get bailed out by their hard earned tax dollars....wow!

[Alec]

The way John McCain wins PA?
Simple.
He is a great American. He fought for our country.
Barack Obama called the people in Pennsylvania "Bitter Americans who cling to their guns and religion"
While addressing the rich Nancy Pelosi San Fran crod on the left coast.
And John Murth (D. PA) calls his own constituancy Rednecks and Racists.

That's how.

Life is like a box of Chocolates- and the Democrat box smell like "turds dipped in Bosco."

[moonbuggy]

McShame will have to LIE and Deceive every one of those people to get their votes. Not just little lies, but BIG Bold face lies. But I have faith in McShame, he's an expert when it comes to that. Plus he only targets idiots who can't comprehend what he's talking about, so the cats in the bag.

[steve]

These guys are delusional if they think they have a chance in PA. I'd say they should've focused on Minnesota and Ohio instead. It doesn't matter because people have finally realized that 8 years of Republican domination will give you a recession, a pointless war, a deficit too large to even comprehend, and the widest income gap since the Gilded Age. McCain just can't win; I don't care if a picture came out tomorrow of Obama eating dinner with Muqtada al-Sadr; its over.

[Todd]

Face it, the republicans can't hold red states and they think they can flip a blue state. I understand they need to humour the old man, but this is patently ridiculous.

[Brad Arnold]

Yeah, McCain only needs to "flip" about 70,000 votes, if you make the absurd comparison of Bush vs. Kerry to McCain vs. Obama. Instead, Obama has been leading in Pennsylvania by double digits, so McCain will have to flip around half a million voters in the two weeks remaining. Talk is cheap-wanna put your money where your mouth is and make a wager (daddy needs a new pair of boots)?

[Winemaster2]

PA is a lost cause fro the GOP. Here is GA, new young voters have registered in by the hundreds and thousands and they are all going through early voting like there was no tomorrow. The sense is that the GOP will even lose a Senate seat. Some usual faithful conservative republicans for McCain/ Palain can be spotted as they drive around at high noon with their head lights on. Except for some GOP strong hold counties out side metro Atlanta, they are very few in between . The way things are Obama may even carry GA to put the nail in McCain's coffin.

[TCA]

The polls LIE! They are weighted in favor of the Dems.

Dont beleive me? Do a google search for 'Obama weight problem' and you will see...

So this race is much closer than many of you would believe. McCain may well be able to win, in Pennsylvania.

GO MCCAIN - PALIN !!!!!

[formerrepublican]

I'm not going to read beyond the headline of this column because there are so many more interesting ones on the internet today. However, I wonder if this "guru" could please let me know how I can win the lottery!

[They are Fighting the Wrong Battle]

McCain is fighting the wrong battle. Obsessed with the 2004 numbers, he fails to understand that THINGS HAVE CHANGED SINCE 2004.

The statement that 'since Democrat John Kerry won the state by only 140,000 votes, McCain "needs to flip" only 2,000 votes in each of the state's 67 counties' shows that the McCain campaign is detached from reality. This statement would make sense if, on average, the voters of 2008 were likely to repeat their 2004 votes. But the electorate of 2008 is very angry at the Republicans for the disaster of the last 8 years, and is deeply worried about the financial and economic crisis. The Democratic VP candidate is a PA senator. And the Palin pick scares or angers a lot of moderates. Polls show Obama/Biden well ahead of McCain/Palin. McCain needs to flip far more than 2,000 per county, because THE BAR HAS MOVED.

An inability to grasp and adapt to an evolving Situation is a weakness in a leader. John McCain has shown several times during the last few months alone that despite his positive qualities, the John McCain of 2008 is PSYCHOLOGICALLY UNABLE TO COPE WITH A CRISIS, whether a political crisis (a campaign that is sagging badly) or a global economic crisis (the financial meltdown). McCain and his equally unfit advisors are instead hiding behind the comfortable illusion that they are battling Kerry in 2004.

Barack Obama is here in 2008.

If McCain became president, then instead of an erratic campaigner, scaring his campaign staff and frustrating his party, he would be an erratic PRESIDENT, frustrating and scaring the American people. All of us. Democrats as well as Republicans.

We should all honor John McCain for the service that he rendered to the American people in the past. But we must elect Barack Obama, who has the skills needed to serve as our president during this time of crisis, skills that McCain clearly lacks.

[Taylor]

OBAMA ALREADY HARMING THE ECONOMY.

A Statement by

100 DISTINGUISED AND EXPERIENCED ECONOMISTS

at major American universities and research organizations, including five Nobel Prize winners Gary Becker, James Buchanan, Robert Mundell, Edward Prescott, and Vernon Smith. The economists explain why Barack Obama's proposals, including "misguided tax hikes," would "decrease the number of jobs in America." The prospects of such tax rate increases under Barack OBAMA

are already HARMING THE ECONOMY.

The economists conclude that "Barack Obama's economic proposals are wrong for the American economy." The proposals "defy both economic reason and economic experience."

Quote ... The economists conclude that "Barack Obama's economic proposals are WRONG FOR THE AMERICAN ECONOMY.

[Mark Jacobs]

What he really means is the punch line of an old joke.

What's the first instruction in the recipe on how to prepare Chicken Soup?

"Steal one Chicken"

[chris c]

Gramps is counting on latent racism to win, beyond that he has no chance. That is why every single speech, commercial, mailer etc. is about why you should not vote for Sen. Obama rather than why you should vote for McCain. All you need to know about his judgement can be ascertained from the campaign. He has looked erratic, petty and bitter. To top it off he picked a joke for a running mate. As old and sick as he is and he could not take the VP selection serious, that tells me all I need to know about what kind of Pres. he would be.

[kay]

When Biden warns America that Obama is to inexperienced for the job of President and would face a certain crisis, perhaps even liberals should be a little concerned.

[TitansAFC]

Well, I have to give it to you Obama Backers: you're organized, you post the conspired "it's hopeless, Republicans!" talking points in every newspaper blog, online thread, and website; and you successfully spam every article with the same "Everyone I know is voting Obama...." talking points. Organized, on-message rapid-response. Well done.

But we smell your fear.

Governor Ed Rendelll has now made public pleas for Obama and his campaign to return to PA, sensing nervously that PA may very well turn red this election. An accidental release of an Obama internal poll showed PA a dead heat, trending McCain. McCain internals showed McCain up by five, and rising. Obama advisors have re-routed Barack to Florida, sensing a better chance there now than in PA, though admitting Floridians are coming home to McCain.

And every single PA poll - when corrected for actual turnout gaps and historical turnout gaps - shows McCain ahead or tied. Only when they use fallacious numbers, assuming absurd turnout gaps in favor of Barack Obama - dwarfing even Reagan turnout numbers SEVERAL times over - do we see the polls showing Obama ahead. Every realistic poll - including Barack's own internals show McCain ahead or statistically tied.

The truth about poll numbers assuming ridiculous turnout gaps has you scared to death, and we're sensing it now. We know that you know PA will go McCain in two weeks - and we know you're spam games and talking points by heart. Even Ed Rendell sees McCain can pull this off.

You're going to hate reliving 2000, when McCain wins the Electoral College as Barack gets the Popular Vote.

[M]

"and now they hear McCain say that a tax cut for them is a government giveaway, socialism....all the while the fat cats on Wall Street continue to offshore their jobs...while they on Wall Street get bailed out by their hard earned tax dollars....wow! "

Wow is right, you seem to have no clue here. The tax cut is not socialisim, the overall Obama tax raise reeks of it. The middle class will get a few hundred more dollars under Obama's plan but the large tax increases on business and those who spend a lot of money will have a twofold effect: 1) it will increase job unemployment as jobs WILL be lost and 2) it will result in a slower, weaker economy overall in which any savings these families have will be worth less, will recover much more slowly, will decrease even further the money the "rich" pour into the economy.

If ecnomnic recovery is your hotbutton, ask yourself which overall strategy is better (forget the candidates for a second).

Obama's goals are worthy, but I fear his implementation of those goals is short-sighted and will hurt, not help, the ecnonomy, which is build on the back of the middle class.

Think about it this way. If a company is making a profit and you suddenly tax them, are they going to sit by and take a loss? No, they are going to either cut costs (jobs) or they are going to raise prices (inflation) or both.

A tax cut for the middle class is simply not going to help them overall if overall taxes are raised. It will stifle the ecnonomy.

[Cru]

I think there will be a reverse Bradley effect, in which people say they'll vote McCain, but at last minute, the guilt will hit them in the polls.
On top of that, no one's really paying attention to the high registration figures of youth vote. It's a new generation (if you follow American generations, the new one has values similar to the G.I. generation), no incumbent, and a bad economy. McCain is running on fear, using vague insinuations to provoke doubts possibly rooted in racial tensions.. which would otherwise work, but the youth don't have such strong divisions, the registered democratic youth outnumber senior supporters of McCain. His strategy from day one has been flawed, he never addressed the youth, he didn't even try to court the black vote, now it's far too late - and those constituencies will cancel out any support he's gotten from fear-baiting.

[Average American]

The real issue at hand:

What concerns me about Obama is that he is very under qualified to be President. This is a fact he cannot escape, not even with one general's endorsement.

The real concern with Obama is the acknowledgement by Joe Biden of what we have feared all along. Obama is so inexperienced that he is a danger to our country! Hostile world leaders will take advantage of this fact and Joe knows it!

With our current economic crisis and a global war on terror, now is not the time for this little experiment of Affirmative Action. I don't know what else to call this whole Obama thing. I mean just look at it, this is an effort to put a clearly under qualified person in a position of power when the only discernable trait is color. For those of you who haven't lived all your life under the tyranny of Affirmative Action I can tell you first hand it is a disaster to say the least. Affirmative Action is a SURE way to install incompetence!

People should get jobs based on merit, not race, this is only common sense, we should be color blind and only look at merit.

Now apply the bar of merit to our current election. Only one possible choice, John McCain. Make the right decision for the country! McCain is not Bush even though Obama and Pelosi want him to be.

[Average American]

The polls do have a significant problem that favors Obama. The Obama campaign is using intimidation to skew the numbers. The link below is an article that demonstrates what you can expect if you don't go along with the Obama camp when they call.

Think Stalin or Hitler crushing any dissent:

http://www.lufkindailynews.com/search/content/news/stories/2008/10/07/secret_service.html

[elizabeth]

isn't this the same Mike Duhaime who masterminded the winning Giuliani florida strategy?

[David Gerard]

MAN ON FIVE, Cook County, Monday -- The McCain campaign is looking at an Electoral College strategy heading into the final two weeks that has virtually no room for error.

"Democrat voting fraud is famous since Tammany Hall," says Republican strategist Karl Rove. "So we'll win without votes."

Voting machines have been remotely reset and the counts adjusted. "Diebold have come to the party big time." Touch screen machines for West Virginia early voting offer voters "McCAIN" or "REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER."

The rolls will be thoroughly checked for voter fraud. "If the typeface or font size is different on their driver's licence, Social Security or the voter roll, that's obvious blatant fraud. A typical Liberal knife to the heart of democracy."

The party will check for dead voters as well. "We're making the safe assumption that all registered Democrats are dead. If they're not, we'll correct that." Governor Palin has long dealt with Democrat moose in Alaska. "You betcha!"

All residents of properties whose mortgages were underwritten by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac will be assumed to have voted Republican. "We own the houses, of course we own the votes. It's nonsense to say otherwise."

Finally, under USA-PATRIOT, Obama supporters will be deemed associates of associates of terrorists. The offence will carry a penalty of one day's imprisonment: November 4th.

Mr Rove is confident in the future of our democracy. "One man, one vote. That man being me."

Source: http://tinyurl.com/5cc3ve

[Alec]

The "All Barack Channel- and the National Barack Channel- and the rest of the left-wing media have done everything in their power to "dismiss" anything negative from their "teflon Candidate"- The Messiah.

The Polls are wrong and YOUR VOTE WILL COUNT.
By their own admission, the pollsters have stated that they have been asking heavily Democrat voters.
This is still America- last time I checked. And the American people will speak November 4th.
Do not stay home- that's what they are counting on.
Meanwhile Obama's group ACORN is busily stuffing the ballot boxes with fraudulant voter registration AND outright voter FRAUD.
If you live in a state with early voting- take advantage of it- so that you won't wait in long lines on Election Day.
Vote with like-minded friends- CARPOOL.
We have to insure that the very fabric of our country is not-railroaded by these insidious people.
And please- as much as it may break your heart not to vote for "your" candidate- be it Hillary, Huckabee, Paul, Romney, Barr or Baldwin- DON'T throw your vote away by voting your heart.
This is a two party system and it's going to be either McCain or Obama.
We cannot have an inexperienced candidate with a questionable background who will surely (by his running mate's own admission) invite a disater like a terror attack on the U.S. or a nuclear strike by Iran on Israel- to "test his mettle." That's because these foreign despots dictators and MADMEN know he is weak and will deliver the United States on a platter to them.
Socialism- code word "spread the wealth around"- is just the beginning, people.
Have you not seen the children chanting "The One's" name and those black Obama training camps for young thugs?
Spend some time on YouTube or Google today and get enlightened. It is coming.
If we let it.
This cannot happen.
God Help Us!
McCain-Palin 2008 !

[Jay]

"McCain anticipates good news as well..."

Hope is not a strategy.

[FRV]

Funny how many McShame backers here are in denial.
They'd best get used to saying 2 words they are going to be repeating for the next 8 years.....

PRESIDENT OBAMA

[Russell4America]

Republicans are out to steal the election again. McCain's hypocracy on ACORN is well known. Not only has McCain been a speaker for ACORN, McCain and the republicans are trying to deflect attention from their real voter fraud tactics. Read this:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/democratic-national-committee-john-mccain/story.aspx?guid=%7BB1265095-6CB0-42C8-868F-099B6DE87E0C%7D&dist=hppr

[Squigman]

Okay, here's a question. Are you and your family better off today, than you were in the year 2000. ? If the answer is yes, you must live in another country than here in the U.S.A.. And you may be inclined to vote for a republican agenda if the answer to the above question was yes. However, if you can not answer tha above question as a yes, then you should take a good long look at your situation, and vote according to your wallet, or purse whichever you care to carry. Bottom line, there has never been a republican who cares for the working class, and theere never will. This should be painfully evident from the last 8 years.

And, another question. Why is Carl Rove still running around loose. Here's a creep that should be detained at Git-mo.. Waterboarding being an option while detained..

[Horseshoeman]

Hilarious, thanks for the laugh. It won't be 10 points but it will be enough for Penna to go blue. The thrid robocall from McCain was enough for my dad to switch to Obama. What garbage they're putting out there, I can hardly believe it.

[ClingingtoGunsAndReligion]

According to Obama (when he thinks he is off-camera in San Fran) Pennsylvanians are just clinging to their guns and religion, as well as being racists. If I were a Pennsylvanian, I would think twice about someone who said that about me.