John McCain's political guru explains how he wins Pennsylvania

Amid reports of the John McCain camp narrowing the number of states in which it is truly competing, all eyes in the political world have turned toward Pennsylvania (in part because that's where the candidate spent his day, hard at it on the stump).

With polls showing Barack Obama poised to win at least four states President Bush carried in 2004 -- Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia and Colorado -- the question has become: Which major state could McCain snatch from the Democratic column to maintain GOP control of the White House?

That's where Pennsylvania, with its 21 electoral votes, comes in, as Newsweek's Andrew Romano adroitly detailed earlier today. Appropriately, Romano also cast a skeptical eye on that strategy, in light of what the Pennsylvania polls have been indicating.

McCain's political director, Mike Duhaime, counters such naysaying.

He conducted a conference call with reporters Tuesday afternoon, and The Times' Bob Drogin relates that the operative insisted "we feel we're going to be successful" in Pennsylvania.

One reason: Duhaime termed McCain the most appealing GOP presidential candidate to Pennsylvania voters since Ronald Reagan.

He also broke down some numbers from the '04 race, arguing that . . .

. . . since Democrat John Kerry won the state by only 140,000 votes, McCain "needs to flip" only 2,000 votes in each of the state's 67 counties.

Here's what else Duhaime had to say, as passed along by Drogin:

He said the campaign is operating three dozen offices in the state and is making hundreds of thousands of phone calls every week to identify and persuade potential GOP voters. The data-mining efforts are aimed at identifying former Hillary Rodham Clinton supporters and independents who are prepared to consider McCain's message. He said the internal data is "trending" in McCain's direction and is showing "a lot of things" not apparent in the opinion polls.

Overall, Duhaime said, McCain has drawn strong support from what he called a "Democrats for McCain" movement in and around Scranton and in the state's western Rust Belt region. "That gives us optimism," he said.

McCain anticipates good news as well, he said, in the southern and central part of the state, near Harrisburg, York and Lancaster -– all cities that the candidate, his wife, Cindy, or running mate Sarah Palin have visited in the last few days.

Duhaime predicted that McCain would surprise prognosticators even in Philadelphia, a Democratic stronghold where Obama is seen to hold a hammerlock. Kerry won the city by more than 400,000 votes four years ago, winning every single ward. Duhaime said that Obama wouldn't be able to repeat that feat, however, and that McCain would garner more votes than Bush did in the city.

The McCain focus on Pennsylvania may end up paying dividends, given how easily Clinton, in April's Democratic primary, bested Obama in areas of the state such as Scranton. But if that prediction about Philadelphia pans out, jaws will be dropping on election night.

-- Don Frederick

Photo credit: European Pressphoto Agency   

Comments

[scootmandubious]

How McCain can win Pennsylvania? It is obvious he only thinks he can win by lying about Barack Obama.

The robocalls and overall tenor of his campaign disqualify McCain for the presidency.

I am still wondering when the Democrats are going to focus attention on the 1992 hearings about POW MIAs. McCain was allegedly the driving force behind refusing to allow classification on the files and ending the inquiry into what happened to the MIA's in Vietnam.

Watch the video and decide for yourself. Anyone can google the info for themselves. The question isn't what John McCain did, but what his motivations were for doing it. This isn't partisan. Some of the harshest statements on this video from Republicans.

Decide for yourselves. And ask yourself why this factual event from the past has not even entered the dialogue. Yet, the fraudulent William Ayers association is fair game?

It is the video that McCain doesn't want anyone to see:
http://scootmandubious.blogspot.com/2008/10/john-mccains-betrayal-of-pow-mia.html

[freddie]

keep dreaming and wishing for what for miracles, I hope you are still looking to Carl Rove tactic to pull this off now, but the problem with that is that the American people have now seen thru' the tactic......see ya on innauguration day

[HedgeBaby]

I live in PA. I see at least 3 - 4 times as many Obama/Biden yard signs as McCain/Palin. The majority of Pennsylvanians just want the McPalin team to pack up their lies and go home - we don't want them here. The politics of the past 8 years have decimated our state. Why on earth would we want more of the same? McGrampy and Caribou Barbie need to go back to the rocks they crawled out from under. PA for Obama/Biden!!!!!!

[VJ Machiavelli]

This is the same "BRAIN" that ran Rudy's campaign into the ground. Why they decided to bring him onboard the McCain Campaign I don't know. I hate second guessing, but HE WAS ONE OF THE "BRAINS" behind Rudys campaign that was a failure. Why hire a "BRAIN" of a failed campaign. Thats like hiring a general who lost every battle to the enemy.

VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com

[Jeremy]

I should point out Scranton -- Joe Biden's hometown -- is nowhere near Western Pennsylvania nor the state's western Rust Belt. There also doesn't seem to be a lot of analysis here -- Pennsylvania now has 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans, a big change since 2004. And McCain has lost a good 10 points over the last 6 weeks here. How is that trending in his favor? It's natural for the flaks to say it but shouldn't you run the words through the truth machine a little bit?

[lj9283]

You know the conversation should begin about how the Republican Party threw it's candidate for President under the bus, and should those who participated be held accountable for such an underhanded move.

When Mr. McCain suspended his campaign to return to Washington to deal with the economic crisis, the House Republicans did nothing short of telling the world that Mr. McCain was not a leader they would follow.

They publicly humiliated their candidate, and in doing so denigrated his leadership qualities.

If Mr. McCain loses this election, the renegade House Republican's should share a heaping helping of contribution to that loss.

[Mitch]

Don't have enough information to know if this is workable or not. At least theres some sense that McCain has some knowledgable professionals driving his campaign towards the finish line with optimism

[Eugene]

Amazing delusions here. Strategy number #1: fix the voting machine.

[Democrats '08]

The Republican "leaders" in Washington have failed America, they are inferior losers, resistance is futile, I repeat resistance is futile, join the Democrats, Liberals, Independents and all others and support your NEW and SUPERIOR Democratic leader Barrack Obama. NO MORE BUSH, NO MORE MCCAIN, NO MORE REPUBLICANS, they had more than enough time to prove themselves and they have FAILED us.

[hey]

ummm scranton is not in the state's western rust belt region.. it is in north east PA... cmon.. check google maps!

OBAMA/BIDEN 08

[Jim Terr]

This is a confusing opener: "Amid reports of the John McCain camp narrowing the number of states in which it is truly competing,.." Do you mean he's becoming competitive in fewer states? If so, you're making it sound like it's something he wished to accomplish (?)

[mvr]

Somehow I don't think that the average worker in PA is going to get behind a party that is willing to let their jobs disappear just because John McCain says he isn't George Bush. Large swaths of Pennsylvania are feeling the pain of an economy run for the rich. I doubt that anyone who takes Hilary seriously will think Sarah Palin is a good substitute, and John McCain shows just how in touch he is with the average voter when he went for that strategy. I'm obviously biased insofar as I don't find McCain's working class schtick sincere, but I'll bet I'm right.

[Michael Lee]

McCain is a lousy campaigner but a great canditate.
The reverse is true for Obama.

I think McCain supporters are just afraid of Obama supporters so they just don't talk about it in public.

Who wants a brick through their window?

[Mr....]

He is crazy. It's that simple....'Hey folks! Even though I'm down, I'm still going to win because of my CRAZY logic." It reminds me of how Bush talks about Iraq.

[A.G. in Philly]

This sounds like fantasy football to me. I live in Philly and my family is in Scranton. I don't know a single person who is voting Mc/Palin.

[pa voter]

those hundreds of thousands of phone calls are alienating the electorate here

[Brett Walters]

Everyone in my family is voting for Obama. I don't see how McCain can compete in PA.

[Rice]

Whomever told the McCain campaign that they could win Pennsylvania in a year of an economic/financial crisis run by a Republican administration was really in big time denial. The state is vastly middle class, has seen a good million jobs go overseas during the past 25 years...they remember what national party the robber barons were from....and now they hear McCain say that a tax cut for them is a government giveaway, socialism....all the while the fat cats on Wall Street continue to offshore their jobs...while they on Wall Street get bailed out by their hard earned tax dollars....wow!

[Alec]

The way John McCain wins PA?
Simple.
He is a great American. He fought for our country.
Barack Obama called the people in Pennsylvania "Bitter Americans who cling to their guns and religion"
While addressing the rich Nancy Pelosi San Fran crod on the left coast.
And John Murth (D. PA) calls his own constituancy Rednecks and Racists.

That's how.

Life is like a box of Chocolates- and the Democrat box smell like "turds dipped in Bosco."

[moonbuggy]

McShame will have to LIE and Deceive every one of those people to get their votes. Not just little lies, but BIG Bold face lies. But I have faith in McShame, he's an expert when it comes to that. Plus he only targets idiots who can't comprehend what he's talking about, so the cats in the bag.

[steve]

These guys are delusional if they think they have a chance in PA. I'd say they should've focused on Minnesota and Ohio instead. It doesn't matter because people have finally realized that 8 years of Republican domination will give you a recession, a pointless war, a deficit too large to even comprehend, and the widest income gap since the Gilded Age. McCain just can't win; I don't care if a picture came out tomorrow of Obama eating dinner with Muqtada al-Sadr; its over.

[Todd]

Face it, the republicans can't hold red states and they think they can flip a blue state. I understand they need to humour the old man, but this is patently ridiculous.

[Brad Arnold]

Yeah, McCain only needs to "flip" about 70,000 votes, if you make the absurd comparison of Bush vs. Kerry to McCain vs. Obama. Instead, Obama has been leading in Pennsylvania by double digits, so McCain will have to flip around half a million voters in the two weeks remaining. Talk is cheap-wanna put your money where your mouth is and make a wager (daddy needs a new pair of boots)?

[Winemaster2]

PA is a lost cause fro the GOP. Here is GA, new young voters have registered in by the hundreds and thousands and they are all going through early voting like there was no tomorrow. The sense is that the GOP will even lose a Senate seat. Some usual faithful conservative republicans for McCain/ Palain can be spotted as they drive around at high noon with their head lights on. Except for some GOP strong hold counties out side metro Atlanta, they are very few in between . The way things are Obama may even carry GA to put the nail in McCain's coffin.

[TCA]

The polls LIE! They are weighted in favor of the Dems.

Dont beleive me? Do a google search for 'Obama weight problem' and you will see...

So this race is much closer than many of you would believe. McCain may well be able to win, in Pennsylvania.

GO MCCAIN - PALIN !!!!!