John McCain's own polling gives him hope, an aide says

When John McCain insisted, during his appearance Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press" that he was doing "just fine" in a presidential race in which the polls have shown Barack Obama with a steady lead over the last few weeks, many may have dismissed the comment as just something that a candidate has to say.

Not so, said a McCain campaign official who spoke on background with The Times' Bob Drogin. The aide said the campaign's internal polling showed McCain down only 4 percentage points nationally -– a sharp improvement from a week ago -- and closing fast.

State-by-state, the private polling also showed McCain up 1 point in Ohio, North Carolina, Florida and Missouri, and behind by only 3 points in Virginia (a new Washington Post survey found him down 8 there).

McCain almost assuredly needs to capture all five states to win the presidency. And even that may not be enough if he fails to win Pennsylvania, one of his campaign stops today. Without Pennsylvania, McCain needs to pull more electoral votes out of some combination of Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico or Iowa -– all states where, as of now, the internal numbers look bleak.

The anonymous McCain official argued a comeback remains doable. “Check with me Wednesday,” the aide said. “If we’re still within the margin of error (in polling), we’re going to win.”

The campaign likely will take solace from the daily Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, which today showed Obama up by 5 points, compared to an 8 point lead as of Sunday. Still, the pollsters note that "with today’s results, Obama has been ahead by four-to-eight points every single day for 32 straight days."

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[Dean N]

What do polls and economics have in common? - both are based on math. McCain doesn't really understand the economy and polling is out of his grasp also. Or, he's just a liar.

If the above internal polls were true, why isn't he concentrating on those states, instead of going to N. Hampshire, Colorado, N. Mexico and all those other states. Internal polls tell you what you want to hear, otherwise the pollster gets fired.

I think this campaign has hastened the onset of dementia for McCain. He's become a babbling, bumbling idiot in the past several weeks.

[Concerned]

It's true, anything can happen. But I think Obama has the better plan, better personal skills, intellectual prowess, is better educated and has a better grasp of the issues. I do think he's what we need...dispite all the mud-slinging and red-herring arguments being thrown at him in the 11th hour.

The smear campaign shows desperation in the mccain camp and is also in such bad taste. How can any one stand these people?

Hey, let's talk about how McCain fought to leave POWs in Viet Nam and won't release the records on those hearings, shall we?

[Jay]

If McCain's comment is what a candidate has to say, this campaign official's comment is what a campaign official has to say.

[carolo]

Who is McCain polling? His wife, mother and brother. Oh yes, I forgot Joe Lieberman.

[dkn]

Obama wants to change the constitution.....and redistribute the wealth....God help us.....and I am not talking about Obama.....but he might think so.

[Old and Confused]

In McCain-land, John McCain is winning. In McCain-land, a Sarah Palin VP makes sense. In McCain-land, the economy is sound. In McCain-land Iraq will hopefully last 100 years. In McCain-land mavericks agree with the administration and vow to continue their policies. In McCain-land a gas tax holiday is good planning for the future. In McCain-land isolationism is the prefered foreign policy.In McCain-land women's rights take a backseat to state's rights over their bodies.

[Chuck Ewe]

So much of polling appears to be related what the questions are and how the questions are asked.

For example:

Which are you more likely to vote for?

1. A socialist who want to raise your taxes and suppress jobs

or

2. A proven reformer who will put more money in your pocket?

Well, the question doesn't ask if you're voting for Obama or McCain, just a message.

[Robert in Virginia]

Who can believe polls run by the likes of the New York Times and the Washington Post who are in bed with Barack Obama's election team? Come on everybody, can't you think for yourselves and look beyond the great vocal flourishes of the chosen one and see that everything he stands for goes against change in the country? His idea of change is to take from those that have anything and give to those who think they deserve it. John Kennedy once said; "Ask not what your country can do for you; ask what you can do for your country." Today's mantra is "if he is elected what can Obama do for me?" like an entitlement is due to everyone. Well, the answer is if he repeals the bush tax cuts, he will essentially raise the tax that everyone pays uniformly. Some tax cut.

I am an independent and my mind was made up to go with McCain when Obama changed his mind about the use of public funding to support his run and now is buying the election with the tons of money coming in from donors, many who are unknown .

[zogby]

Chuck Ewe:

"Which are you more likely to vote for?

1. A socialist who want to raise your taxes and suppress jobs

or

2. A proven reformer who will put more money in your pocket?"

Is that the question McCain uses in his polling, in which case I can understand why the figures might be a bit closer than the other polls.
(BTW, educated people will think 2. is Obama.)

[belle_butler]

The polls are too ridiculas to believe..I have no doubt Mccain will win...How the mighty are fallen comes to mind..

[ThePhotogsBlog]

Hey Wing Nuts! The United Kingdom was a US ally in both world wars, Korea, and both Gulf Wars. Adam Smith, a Scotsman, defined defined capitalism (The Wealth Of Nations). They once held the greatest empire in the history of the world and milked it for every penny they could.

Yet by your own standards; the ones you insist on applying to Barack Obama, they must be Marxists as well, since they have government funded health care and pay much, much higher taxes than Americans do. Even the Queen must be a Marxist, since she pays taxes too.

Canadians, just to your north pay higher taxes than Americans, and they have a government health-care system too. Maybe they're a bunch of Marxists also. On the other hand, they teach religion in the public schools up there, so maybe Marxism isn't such a bad thing.