Has Barack Obama taken Pennsylvania out of play?

Pennsylvania is to Barack Obama what Ohio is to John McCain -- a large, politically competitive state that he almost assuredly has to win to have any chance of moving into the White House.

For much of the general election campaign, Pennsylvania seemed completely in play  -- a worrisome situation for Obama and his strategists.

His loss there in April's Democratic presidential primary to Hillary Clinton spotlighted his difficulties with working-class white voters.

Throughout the summer, most polls gave Obama an edge over McCain in the state but placed the Republican well within striking range to grab its 21 electoral votes.

And McCain clearly thought he had a good shot at them -- since June, he's visited the Keystone State 17 times.

Over the next two weeks or so, however, it will be worth watching how often -- if at all -- McCain's itinerary takes him to Pennsylvania or whether, alternatively, his campaign starts to scale back its efforts there.

The reason -- two new surveys, one taken at the end of September, the other during the first few days of this month, showing....

...Obama with a substantial lead.

Setting aside such polls as, by nature, ephermal (and perhaps flat-out wrong), a Washington Post story today that surveyed voter-registration trends in several states offered numbers that spell out the daunting challenge facing McCain in Pennsylvania. Here it is:

This year, 474,000 Democrats have been added to the rolls in Pennsylvania -- while the GOP rolls have actually lost 38,000 voters.

The state's Republican chairman, Robert Gleason Jr., can be counted on to urge the McCain's campaign not to give up hope of carrying the state. In a New York Times story Sunday that surveyed the electoral landscape, he insisted the recent polling was off-base and that Obama "is not catching on here.”

And despite the poll numbers and the registration figures, the suspicion lingers among political analysts that Pennsylvania still offers fertile ground for McCain -- especially as his campaign renews attacks on Obama for his connection to the likes of Bill Ayers.

Opined MSNBC's "First Note" political briefing this morning: "Of the remaining blue (traditionally Democratic) states in play, Pennsylvania may be the most culturally sensitive and may explain why the McCain folks want to shift the debate a bit to character. ... Shifting the campaign to character isn't about changing the national narrative; it's about keeping the undecided column larger in Pennsylvania."

If so, we'll be expecting another McCain stop in the state soon.

-- Don Frederick

Photo credit: Getty Images

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Comments

[senja]

Mccain wants to now do to healthcare what was done with wall street. Mccain wants to tax healthcare? mccain wants to cut medicare/medical? Mccain has tax payor supported healthcare. No more of this . mccain should retire he's 72. Plain has the capacity to run PTA not the free world.

[Marc]

John McCain is a joke. He would rather lose his integrity than lose an election. With our economy in a free-fall, John McCain's solution is to change the subject. Is this really who we want as our leader?

[Wayne]

After 8 years of a disasterous Republican Admin, voting Republican again does not amount to CHANGE.

There is no good reason to vote Republican after 8 horrendous, disasterous years.

[patrick]

I think you meant "ephemeral," not "ephermal."

I have a couple of problems with "attacks on Obama for his connection to the likes of Bill Ayers." One, the claim of a "connection" is spurious. Two, there aren't any other university professors and former domestic terrorists to whom Obama is claimed to be connected. I think "attacks on Obama for his tenuous connection to Bill Ayers" would be more accurate.

[steve]

What a joke...mccain stated this morning that obama thought he was above the law and above having his record question........while mccain's camp hides palin behind the RNC lawyers for troopergate. McCain is such a disgrace I can hardly speak his name -- I'm starting to think that he is no Bush, but by his campaign actions a hundred times worse than Bush.

[Michael]

McLame only has the two never fail appeals to Republicans everywhere, fear and ignorance!

[Mike]

If smear tactics are all John McCain has left, this election is over, possibly in landslide fashion.

[edge]

Way too far from election day to figure much out from the polls! A month is an eternity.

The Negative ads are still in front of us, along with two more debates. Nothing is out of play except Illinois and Alaska :)

edge.

[nepr]

"And despite the poll numbers and the registration figures..."

In other words, in spite of all evidence to the contrary.

"Opined MSNBC's "First Note"... the McCain folks want to shift the debate a bit to character..."

I'm sure they want it to shift just a little itty bit.

[Jinx]

The only reason Republicans switched to Democrats in PA is because only voters regestered for their party can vote in that party's primary. McCain had already wrapped up the Republican primary by April so lots of people switched so they could be involved in the competitive Democratic primary between Clinton and Obama. However, just because they wanted their vote to count for something in the primary instead of just pushing the button for McCain because he had already won, doesn't mean most of these voters will return to vote Republican in the general election where it really matters. I did this myself. Voted Obama in the primaries since McCain already had it wrapped up and then I'll vote McCain in the general. So many switching to the Democratic party in PA only means one thing. PA voting rules are stupid for not letting anyone vote in either primary.

[Orn R. Critter]

Isn't PA the state to which Obama was supposedly referring when he said (in San Francisco at a "closed" fundraiser that was captured on YouTube) that the voters in small towns don't like him because they're bitter and turn to "guns and religion" Apparently, they're more turned off by politicians referring to them as "Joe-Six-Pack," by motor-mouth Republican liability Sarah Palin.

[Heather K]

"may explain why the McCain folks want to shift the debate a bit to character" I am from the suburbs of Philly, one think we hate is outright lies in political ads, the more McCain lies the more it turns off voters

[Jinx]

The only reason Republicans switched to Democrats in PA is because only voters regestered for their party can vote in that party's primary. McCain had already wrapped up the Republican primary by April so lots of people switched so they could be involved in the competitive Democratic primary between Clinton and Obama. However, just because they wanted their vote to count for something in the primary instead of just pushing the button for McCain because he had already won, doesn't mean most of these voters will not return to vote Republican in the general election where it really matters. I did this myself. Voted Obama in the primaries since McCain already had it wrapped up and then I'll vote McCain in the general. So many switching to the Democratic party in PA only means one thing. PA voting rules are stupid for not letting anyone vote in either primary.

[Barry (Not Obama)...]

This number could be misleading if you consider that PA was a big part of Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" where GOP voters were urged to switch parties to keep the Democratic Primary close. If many of the people who switched from GOP to Dem to take part in the primary, it would give an unbalanced advantage to the Dems, and that is assuming that all those Dems registered vote Obama, which is not something to count on.

[ThePhotogsBlog]

Today Pennsylvania; tomorrow Florida. Eject now while you still can John. You might be winning if you'd run a respectable campaign instead of going negative from the get-go. But negative is all you have, and your time is up. So long; it's been nice to know you.

[Gary]

I have been a Republican all my voting life [I am 66 now],
sometimes voting Republican when I really felt different inside. NOT ANT MORE. The Republicans have truely gotten us into this mees and I doont believe John McCain can get us out of it, I know Palin can't.

Lesson learned, vote your brain not your past.

[Ojamas]

McCain's trying to take credit for every plank in Obama's platform. Next thing you know, he'll be saying he invented Ojamas. http://www.ojamas.us.

[Scott B]

As a former Pennsylvanian with many contacts in the state, I can tell you the sentiment against McCain is palpable. Most see him as another George Bush and see the need for real change in America. Just look at today's news to see why.

John McCain is off cramming for an exam on our nation's economy. After decades in the Senate, shouldn’t he know this stuff? Meanwhile his lipstick wearing pit bull is warning Floridians to hold on to their hats because it is going to be a bumpy next few weeks. It has been a bumpy for a while. Our economy is crashing, jobs are disappearing, foreclosures have skyrocketed, homelessness is increasing, and the price of home heating oil is so high elderly people will freeze to death in their homes this winter.

Where have these people been? They just don't get it!

[wwl]

mccain has no, i repeat, NO chance in pa; he might as well pack up and go home now.... and i mean not just in pa, but in all states; look at the stats, johnny, you've lost with your palin pick and all of the lies about everything - going back all the way to pow days, pal....

[Rj]

The only way Palin is getting in to the Oval Office is with a tour pass. Keep your head in the sand, when you come up for air take a look at the electoral map. You are about to see the biggest Democratic landslide since 1964.

Republicans got their wish in 2004 and re-elected Bush who has trashed this country in 8 years. As President Obama said "Bush dug us a hole & McCain carried the shovel".

Thanks again for the Palin pick, it's the gift that keeps on giving to the Democrats.

Obama/Biden 08

[Ann/PA]

I wouldn't attach too much importance to the drop in Republican registrations. PA is a closed primary state and the Democratic primary was interesting enough this year for some of us to change registration. I usually vote for more Democrats than Republicans, but live in a 2:1 Republican part of the state ... where most of the local elections are "over" with the primary. In other words, a change in registration from R to D doesn't indicate a change in the way I was going to vote in the general election.

[BENIGHSE]

SO MCCAIN AND PALIN HAVE DECIDED TO GO TO GUTTER POLITICS: Those in 11 glass houses should not throw stones or mud: 1) McCain in his own book admits he was part of the "KEATING FIVE" fiasco, and was WRONG for his ethical violations; 2) Palin chastises Obama for sitting through a minister's nonsensical sermon or two, while IGNORING BEING EXORCISED BY HER WITCH-DOCTOR Minister Thomas Muthee and claiming as a Pentecostal that she believes "END OF DAYS" will happen soon; 3) Palin chastises Obama about an Ayers character who did HIS actions when OBAMA was only 8 years old and as an adult has said Ayers was wrong; WHILE PALIN as an ADULT had joined, as her husband did as well, the SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT of the Alaska Independence Party---She gave them aid and comfort as recently as six months ago for their AIG convention---Even Abraham Lincoln had to fight a Civil War to prevent such secessionist treason activities when States tried to leave the U.S. Union; 4) McCain still has the FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC lobbyists running his campaign---THEY ARE PURSUING THE VERY FAILED POLICIES of his old Savings and Loan billions of dollars fiasco and NOW HIS ADVOCATED CONTINUED failed economic policies for the current financial, bank and mortgage trillion dollar meltdown. Enough of this failed Republican gutter politics. IT's TIME TO PUT OBAMA and BIDEN TO WORK FOR ALL AMERICA!!!

[Steve]

You almost have to start feeling sorry for McCain, everytime he tries to change the topic somehing comes up that makes it look like a big mistake. Yesterday it was lets change the page from the topic of the economy, then today the market has largest point drop in history. He seems like he is constantly having to fight his way out of the corners that he paints himself into.

[BENIGHSE]

Those in 11 glass houses should not throw stones or mud: 1) McCain in his own book admits he was part of the "KEATING FIVE" fiasco, and was WRONG for his ethical violations; 2) Palin chastises Obama for sitting through a minister's nonsensical sermon or two, while IGNORING BEING EXORCISED BY HER WITCH-DOCTOR Minister Thomas Muthee and claiming as a Pentecostal that she believes "END OF DAYS" will happen soon; 3) Palin chastises Obama about an Ayers character who did HIS actions when OBAMA was only 8 years old and as an adult has said Ayers was wrong; WHILE PALIN as an ADULT had joined, as her husband did as well, the SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT of the Alaska Independence Party---She gave them aid and comfort as recently as six months ago for their AIG convention---Even Abraham Lincoln had to fight a Civil War to prevent such secessionist treason activities when States tried to leave the U.S. Union; 4) McCain still has the FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC lobbyists running his campaign---THEY ARE PURSUING THE VERY FAILED POLICIES of his old Savings and Loan billions of dollars fiasco and NOW HIS ADVOCATED CONTINUED failed economic policies for the current financial, bank and mortgage trillion dollar meltdown. Enough of this failed Republican gutter politics. IT's TIME TO PUT OBAMA and BIDEN TO WORK FOR ALL AMERICA!!!

[robert]

"Of the remaining blue (traditionally Democratic) states in play, Pennsylvania may be the most culturally sensitive and may explain why the McCain folks want to shift the debate a bit to character."

"culturally sensitive." Gee...wonder what that is a euphemism for.