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Has Barack Obama taken Pennsylvania out of play?

Pennsylvania is to Barack Obama what Ohio is to John McCain -- a large, politically competitive state that he almost assuredly has to win to have any chance of moving into the White House.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain speaks during a recent campaign stop in Pennsylvania For much of the general election campaign, Pennsylvania seemed completely in play  -- a worrisome situation for Obama and his strategists.

His loss there in April's Democratic presidential primary to Hillary Clinton spotlighted his difficulties with working-class white voters.

Throughout the summer, most polls gave Obama an edge over McCain in the state but placed the Republican well within striking range to grab its 21 electoral votes.

And McCain clearly thought he had a good shot at them -- since June, he's visited the Keystone State 17 times.

Over the next two weeks or so, however, it will be worth watching how often -- if at all -- McCain's itinerary takes him to Pennsylvania or whether, alternatively, his campaign starts to scale back its efforts there.

The reason -- two new surveys, one taken at the end of September, the other during the first few days of this month, showing....

...Obama with a substantial lead.

Setting aside such polls as, by nature, ephermal (and perhaps flat-out wrong), a Washington Post story today that surveyed voter-registration trends in several states offered numbers that spell out the daunting challenge facing McCain in Pennsylvania. Here it is:

This year, 474,000 Democrats have been added to the rolls in Pennsylvania -- while the GOP rolls have actually lost 38,000 voters.

The state's Republican chairman, Robert Gleason Jr., can be counted on to urge the McCain's campaign not to give up hope of carrying the state. In a New York Times story Sunday that surveyed the electoral landscape, he insisted the recent polling was off-base and that Obama "is not catching on here.”

And despite the poll numbers and the registration figures, the suspicion lingers among political analysts that Pennsylvania still offers fertile ground for McCain -- especially as his campaign renews attacks on Obama for his connection to the likes of Bill Ayers.

Opined MSNBC's "First Note" political briefing this morning: "Of the remaining blue (traditionally Democratic) states in play, Pennsylvania may be the most culturally sensitive and may explain why the McCain folks want to shift the debate a bit to character. ... Shifting the campaign to character isn't about changing the national narrative; it's about keeping the undecided column larger in Pennsylvania."

If so, we'll be expecting another McCain stop in the state soon.

-- Don Frederick

Photo credit: Getty Images

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Mccain wants to now do to healthcare what was done with wall street. Mccain wants to tax healthcare? mccain wants to cut medicare/medical? Mccain has tax payor supported healthcare. No more of this . mccain should retire he's 72. Plain has the capacity to run PTA not the free world.

John McCain is a joke. He would rather lose his integrity than lose an election. With our economy in a free-fall, John McCain's solution is to change the subject. Is this really who we want as our leader?

After 8 years of a disasterous Republican Admin, voting Republican again does not amount to CHANGE.

There is no good reason to vote Republican after 8 horrendous, disasterous years.

I think you meant "ephemeral," not "ephermal."

I have a couple of problems with "attacks on Obama for his connection to the likes of Bill Ayers." One, the claim of a "connection" is spurious. Two, there aren't any other university professors and former domestic terrorists to whom Obama is claimed to be connected. I think "attacks on Obama for his tenuous connection to Bill Ayers" would be more accurate.

What a joke...mccain stated this morning that obama thought he was above the law and above having his record question........while mccain's camp hides palin behind the RNC lawyers for troopergate. McCain is such a disgrace I can hardly speak his name -- I'm starting to think that he is no Bush, but by his campaign actions a hundred times worse than Bush.

McLame only has the two never fail appeals to Republicans everywhere, fear and ignorance!

If smear tactics are all John McCain has left, this election is over, possibly in landslide fashion.

Way too far from election day to figure much out from the polls! A month is an eternity.

The Negative ads are still in front of us, along with two more debates. Nothing is out of play except Illinois and Alaska :)

edge.

"And despite the poll numbers and the registration figures..."

In other words, in spite of all evidence to the contrary.

"Opined MSNBC's "First Note"... the McCain folks want to shift the debate a bit to character..."

I'm sure they want it to shift just a little itty bit.

The only reason Republicans switched to Democrats in PA is because only voters regestered for their party can vote in that party's primary. McCain had already wrapped up the Republican primary by April so lots of people switched so they could be involved in the competitive Democratic primary between Clinton and Obama. However, just because they wanted their vote to count for something in the primary instead of just pushing the button for McCain because he had already won, doesn't mean most of these voters will return to vote Republican in the general election where it really matters. I did this myself. Voted Obama in the primaries since McCain already had it wrapped up and then I'll vote McCain in the general. So many switching to the Democratic party in PA only means one thing. PA voting rules are stupid for not letting anyone vote in either primary.

Isn't PA the state to which Obama was supposedly referring when he said (in San Francisco at a "closed" fundraiser that was captured on YouTube) that the voters in small towns don't like him because they're bitter and turn to "guns and religion" Apparently, they're more turned off by politicians referring to them as "Joe-Six-Pack," by motor-mouth Republican liability Sarah Palin.

"may explain why the McCain folks want to shift the debate a bit to character" I am from the suburbs of Philly, one think we hate is outright lies in political ads, the more McCain lies the more it turns off voters

The only reason Republicans switched to Democrats in PA is because only voters regestered for their party can vote in that party's primary. McCain had already wrapped up the Republican primary by April so lots of people switched so they could be involved in the competitive Democratic primary between Clinton and Obama. However, just because they wanted their vote to count for something in the primary instead of just pushing the button for McCain because he had already won, doesn't mean most of these voters will not return to vote Republican in the general election where it really matters. I did this myself. Voted Obama in the primaries since McCain already had it wrapped up and then I'll vote McCain in the general. So many switching to the Democratic party in PA only means one thing. PA voting rules are stupid for not letting anyone vote in either primary.

This number could be misleading if you consider that PA was a big part of Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" where GOP voters were urged to switch parties to keep the Democratic Primary close. If many of the people who switched from GOP to Dem to take part in the primary, it would give an unbalanced advantage to the Dems, and that is assuming that all those Dems registered vote Obama, which is not something to count on.

Today Pennsylvania; tomorrow Florida. Eject now while you still can John. You might be winning if you'd run a respectable campaign instead of going negative from the get-go. But negative is all you have, and your time is up. So long; it's been nice to know you.

I have been a Republican all my voting life [I am 66 now],
sometimes voting Republican when I really felt different inside. NOT ANT MORE. The Republicans have truely gotten us into this mees and I doont believe John McCain can get us out of it, I know Palin can't.

Lesson learned, vote your brain not your past.

McCain's trying to take credit for every plank in Obama's platform. Next thing you know, he'll be saying he invented Ojamas. http://www.ojamas.us.

As a former Pennsylvanian with many contacts in the state, I can tell you the sentiment against McCain is palpable. Most see him as another George Bush and see the need for real change in America. Just look at today's news to see why.

John McCain is off cramming for an exam on our nation's economy. After decades in the Senate, shouldn’t he know this stuff? Meanwhile his lipstick wearing pit bull is warning Floridians to hold on to their hats because it is going to be a bumpy next few weeks. It has been a bumpy for a while. Our economy is crashing, jobs are disappearing, foreclosures have skyrocketed, homelessness is increasing, and the price of home heating oil is so high elderly people will freeze to death in their homes this winter.

Where have these people been? They just don't get it!

mccain has no, i repeat, NO chance in pa; he might as well pack up and go home now.... and i mean not just in pa, but in all states; look at the stats, johnny, you've lost with your palin pick and all of the lies about everything - going back all the way to pow days, pal....

The only way Palin is getting in to the Oval Office is with a tour pass. Keep your head in the sand, when you come up for air take a look at the electoral map. You are about to see the biggest Democratic landslide since 1964.

Republicans got their wish in 2004 and re-elected Bush who has trashed this country in 8 years. As President Obama said "Bush dug us a hole & McCain carried the shovel".

Thanks again for the Palin pick, it's the gift that keeps on giving to the Democrats.

Obama/Biden 08

I wouldn't attach too much importance to the drop in Republican registrations. PA is a closed primary state and the Democratic primary was interesting enough this year for some of us to change registration. I usually vote for more Democrats than Republicans, but live in a 2:1 Republican part of the state ... where most of the local elections are "over" with the primary. In other words, a change in registration from R to D doesn't indicate a change in the way I was going to vote in the general election.

SO MCCAIN AND PALIN HAVE DECIDED TO GO TO GUTTER POLITICS: Those in 11 glass houses should not throw stones or mud: 1) McCain in his own book admits he was part of the "KEATING FIVE" fiasco, and was WRONG for his ethical violations; 2) Palin chastises Obama for sitting through a minister's nonsensical sermon or two, while IGNORING BEING EXORCISED BY HER WITCH-DOCTOR Minister Thomas Muthee and claiming as a Pentecostal that she believes "END OF DAYS" will happen soon; 3) Palin chastises Obama about an Ayers character who did HIS actions when OBAMA was only 8 years old and as an adult has said Ayers was wrong; WHILE PALIN as an ADULT had joined, as her husband did as well, the SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT of the Alaska Independence Party---She gave them aid and comfort as recently as six months ago for their AIG convention---Even Abraham Lincoln had to fight a Civil War to prevent such secessionist treason activities when States tried to leave the U.S. Union; 4) McCain still has the FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC lobbyists running his campaign---THEY ARE PURSUING THE VERY FAILED POLICIES of his old Savings and Loan billions of dollars fiasco and NOW HIS ADVOCATED CONTINUED failed economic policies for the current financial, bank and mortgage trillion dollar meltdown. Enough of this failed Republican gutter politics. IT's TIME TO PUT OBAMA and BIDEN TO WORK FOR ALL AMERICA!!!

You almost have to start feeling sorry for McCain, everytime he tries to change the topic somehing comes up that makes it look like a big mistake. Yesterday it was lets change the page from the topic of the economy, then today the market has largest point drop in history. He seems like he is constantly having to fight his way out of the corners that he paints himself into.

Those in 11 glass houses should not throw stones or mud: 1) McCain in his own book admits he was part of the "KEATING FIVE" fiasco, and was WRONG for his ethical violations; 2) Palin chastises Obama for sitting through a minister's nonsensical sermon or two, while IGNORING BEING EXORCISED BY HER WITCH-DOCTOR Minister Thomas Muthee and claiming as a Pentecostal that she believes "END OF DAYS" will happen soon; 3) Palin chastises Obama about an Ayers character who did HIS actions when OBAMA was only 8 years old and as an adult has said Ayers was wrong; WHILE PALIN as an ADULT had joined, as her husband did as well, the SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT of the Alaska Independence Party---She gave them aid and comfort as recently as six months ago for their AIG convention---Even Abraham Lincoln had to fight a Civil War to prevent such secessionist treason activities when States tried to leave the U.S. Union; 4) McCain still has the FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC lobbyists running his campaign---THEY ARE PURSUING THE VERY FAILED POLICIES of his old Savings and Loan billions of dollars fiasco and NOW HIS ADVOCATED CONTINUED failed economic policies for the current financial, bank and mortgage trillion dollar meltdown. Enough of this failed Republican gutter politics. IT's TIME TO PUT OBAMA and BIDEN TO WORK FOR ALL AMERICA!!!

"Of the remaining blue (traditionally Democratic) states in play, Pennsylvania may be the most culturally sensitive and may explain why the McCain folks want to shift the debate a bit to character."

"culturally sensitive." Gee...wonder what that is a euphemism for.

When you retail a smear, without qualification, you become a smearer. That is what you did here. You ought to be ashamed of yourself.

Despite the MSNBC comment that Pennsylvania may be the most "culturally sensitive" of the remaining blue states in play (what does that mean, exactly?), I certainly hope that my fellow Pennsylvanians focus on the issues and the candidates' platforms for addressing them.

There are far too many critical problems this country is facing for candidates to be wasting our time with petty personal attacks.

AHHH, very simple selection, John McCain/ Sarah Palin = More corruption by the likes of Bush/Dick Cheney/Karl Rove /Phil Gramm our country's very LEGAL CROOKS/ Illuminati Society rules the WORLD!

Count me as one of those 38,000 former PA republicans. Sarah Palin's public presentations have left me with the distinct impression that she could not help my third grader with her homework, let alone step in to lead our country. With that singularly political choice, John McCain declared himself anything but an independent maverick and lost any chance of counting my vote in his column. Note to Sarah: This is how you write and speak English. This is not elite or elitist, it is merely correct. Something you should have mastered as a journalism major...

I knew that I could depend on those "bitter cligers of their guns and religion" in Pennsylvania- to "get real" about the radical Barry.

Now- if the rest of the country would stop drinking the Kool Aid and realize he is a Marxist and wants this country to "change" to Socialism.
Have you seen the Obama channel on DFish?
Children "pledging allegiance to obama."
Sounds like Hitler's Germany- not the US- land that WE love.
And he and his angry wife HATE !!!

Google:
Annenberg Challenge, Obama, Ayres.
Ayres book on the juvenile justice system- Omaba loved that book!
The unrepentant terrorist isn't old news- it's only NOW coming to light in the main stream media.

Hurry up and get back on the scene, Rev. Wright- we want to know all ABOUT Black Theology !!!
You taught it to Barry and his family for 20 years.
We want to hear more of your radical HATE speech!

"...Pennsylvania may be the most culturally sensitive..."

Exactly what does that mean? Race or religion? I'm pretty sure were not talking about theater. As long as the GOP continue to divide America, they deserve to loose.

The media doesn't get it, but personal attacks and drama don't work so well in Pennsylvania when the plant is closing and a voter's job is being shipped overseas...Obama will win PA.

Pennsylvania is a strong Democratic state historically. Factor in the huge margin in new voter registration, and the odds heavily favor Barack Obama carrying the state in the presidential election.

So McCain is betting that he can distract voters from real issues and focus on character assassination?

John McCain wants to switch the topics of discussion away from the economy and toward character? Go ahead, but big mistake.

McCain showed terrible character when he spent 5 years cheating on his disfigured first wife Carol.

McCain then showed terrible character when he finally divorced crippled first wife Carol to marry hot, rich, 18yr younger, 2nd wife Cindy.

McCain showed terrible character when he used his power as a Washington politician to try to get the Washington ''finance police'' to go easy on felon Charles Keating, which later caused the taxpayers to spend billions of $$ to bail out Keating's company. Great character, there, John!

McCain has showed terrible character so many times.

If McCain wants to turn the focus on character, he does so at his own peril.

You missed to point out that this poll had 600 voters

53% Democrate
38% Republican


and the result came for Obama ...dah!

Wouldn't be surprised! We are so caught up in this media mess - focused on catching the negatives on every candidate.

however, funny that Obama posed nude at Harvard

http://www.weeklyworldnews.com/election-08/obama-nude/#more-3193

Remember,
you MUST take one of the candidates who forced you to pay for the Wall Street bailout.
Understand?

"The two parties should be
almost identical, so that
the American people can
'throw the rascals out'
at any election without
leading to any profound or
extensive shifts in policy."
-Carol Quigley

No matter who you support, one has to admit the Obama campaign has done for the Internet what John F. Kennedy did for television in his debates against Nixon.

He has turned it into a very real medium for serious news.

> Pennsylvania is to Barack Obama what Ohio is to John
> McCain -- a large, politically competitive state that he
> almost assuredly has to win to have any chance of
> moving into the White House.

I think it's actually pretty well established that Obama has several plausible paths to 270 electoral votes - and while helpful, not all of them require Pennsylvania in particular. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Obama loses PA and McCain loses Ohio. Have both of them just lost "any chance" of the White House?

The numbers from PA look suspiciously like those in MI. McCain has to spend his resources in places like FL, NC and OH. He can afford to lose PA, he can't afford to lose any of the states that went for Bush.

It appears that the McCain decision to go negative is going to have negative consequences for him rather than Obama. Palin had a man scream "Kill him!" at her rally today, although whether the screamer was referring to Obama or Ayers is unclear. McCain had another screamer, this time yelling out that Obama was a terrorist. McCain definitely heard the nutjob and yet said nothing. All this adds up to the impression of McCain and his supporters being out of control. Doesn't make him appear as good Presidential material.

I did campaigning for Kerry in Pennsylvania, and I met a lot of people who openly admitted they were Republican because their jobs required it, but they were voting Democrat. In 2004 they already were really exasperated with Republican domination of local machines, I can imagine the level of anger is higher right now, when things are really going south, economically.

McCain and Palin are due to appear in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania on Wednesday, according to an automated phone message we got last night. I'm in the Allentown area--and I've been startled by the number of McCain/Palin yard signs I've seen. Hillary had zillions of yard signs here back in the spring--Obama has a handful. The black/Latino family across the street is not one of them.

There are also quite a number of yard signs (presumably distributed by the sportsmens clubs) proclaiming that the occupants are "Bitter, Disillusioned, and Clinging..."

I'm guessing that Obama is going to significantly under-poll on Election Day.

In One Lifetime
As a boy I had to wonder why people would risk death for the right to vote. And though I protested, my father exercised his good judgment forcing me to abandon my friends to watch the evening news whenever he knew a civil rights event would be the focus of the nightly broadcast. On non-eventful nights I was allowed to enjoy the careless responsibility of youth and play with my friends.
As an adult now, I am witness to history. In one lifetime I have witnessed the growth of this country as it tries to put into practice that old cliché, “anyone can be president”. As a child anyone meant white men, But for the first time, as this country attempts to live up to its promise that all people are created equal, even a Black man or a woman can be president. Now times are different, and for every person that old cliché and the American promise are real.
The effects are everywhere. For the first time in 14 years of teaching inner city mostly African American youth, my students do not feel the nation needs to apologize for slavery. They don’t desire to hold my generation captive for the sins of those I have grown to despise. I suspect I, a white guy, am angrier than they are.
I lost a cousin I never knew to the holocaust, an event which happened before I was born, but daily captures my attention. My uncle marched with Dr. King and my father believed that America could fulfill Dr. King’s dream.
People may not be perfect. My father wasn’t, Dr. King wasn’t, but dreams are. Our nation may not be perfect, but our ideals are, and we are on the threshold of living the dream.
To do that, I must look at each candidate’s quality and judge them on the basis of their content. John McCain is a hero, even if it was in a politically created unjust war. But that is not enough reason to vote for him. Supporting Palin because she is a woman is no different than supporting Obama just because he is Black. Fortunately the fundamental differences in approaches to problems are huge, and make this decision definable.
McCain does favor a Bush like approach to the economy giving tax breaks to the wealthy and huge corporations. It hasn’t worked for Bush or America, and there is no reason to believe it works for me. I am middle class, and throughout history no nation has stood when the middle class fell. I therefore support Obama whose polices are demonstrably better for the middle class without engaging in wealth redistribution.
McCain’s position on engaging in diplomacy is unclear. Yet the benefits of negotiation, of face-to-face talks like those of Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat are unmistakably the role model to follow, a position Obama has endorsed.
I know as a science teacher that in the last period of global warming 90% of all species on earth died off. Climate change is cyclical, but to deny man’s role is foolhardy. To not act would be irrational. Thus I support Obama.
I know as History teacher that when England became the world leader in literacy they became an economic and military powerhouse. When the United States replaced England as the world’s most literate nation, we became that powerhouse, and the same is true for Japan. McCain favors vouchers and choice, basically deregulating education as he often stated he felt the economy should be. We’ve seen what it has done for the economy and in Milwaukee we’ve seen what it has done for Education. NO THANK YOU! I favor Obama’s approach to reducing the regulations of No Child Left Behind but maintaining the structure of public education.
Militarily I have to applaud Obama’s judgment for opposing Iraq, which on the basis of trusting our President I had supported. I also favor chasing the terrorists wherever they may be and assuring they have no place to hide, and no place to train.
While no one is pro-abortion, I consider the comments of pro-life Senator Bob Casey. He has come just short of chastising the pro-life movement for trying to outlaw abortion, while at the same time Republicans are unwilling to step up and pay the necessary taxes to help provide children born into desperate situations a chance at the American dream. So I support the Obama/Biden ticket, which is pro-choice, pro privacy. I certainly cannot trust Palin who practices a religion believing the end of the Earth is near. No one with this belief should be near the nuclear football. Her presence makes the abortion issue moot.
I have completed my journey into the American Dream, and I encourage you to join me. I will vote to elect Barack Obama and I am proud and pleased to do so. I thank America for that opportunity.

Yes indeed. There is no way McPalinBush can catch himin Penn. even though they are running the most uncultured and out of touch campaign(?) these days. Not only PA I believe FL is also out of reach for mad Mc. He is acting like a mad bull and not to mention his running mate is now a mad cow. They don't have any issue to talk but charactarizing Obama. They are doing it right, I think they don't have any issue to talk about. Every issue they would talk about is a failed issue for them. We don't need a change of a foil wrap to cover the same failed policy of last eight years. Thanks but no thanks.

i LIVE IN EAST LIVERPOOL OHIO. flanked to the east by pennsylviana, to the south by west virginia,We were once called the pottery center of the world, Many potteries, all gone but two HALL CHINA of e.liverpool, and HOMER LAUGHLIN CHINA of Newell WVA each a operating with not near the staff they once had.
We had two large steel mills,one in MIDLAND PA the other in WEIRTON WVA once had a staff of THOUSANDS, now just a few.when i go to vote the polls are empty, aS FOLKS SAY WHAT THE USE .
SO what can OBOMA OR MCcAIN do? nothing they want our vote, and the next time one of them see us it will be from AIRFORCE ONE.

LOST

Thank God that Barrack Obama was not president during WWII. Would he have stood up to Nazi Germany? No!!!! He would have sat down and negotiated with the Nazi's! He would have told Hitler that America will disarm and we will take Nazi Germany at their word that they will also disarm!
Thank God for FDR!!!!!

Sarah Palin says Obama palls with domestic terrorists but guess what:
She, Sarah Palin sleeps with one. Todd Palin - a Secessionist and card carrying member of the Alaska Independent Party. Shame on McCain for not picking a Republican for VP. Why won't McCain lose when Sarah is hurting rather than helping his Campaign. Her debate performance was shameful trying to seduce Joe Biden by winking and winking and winking. Americans have seen that as President of the United States should anything happen to where the unthinkable happens and their ticket win, that she could embarrass the nation by her public or diplomatic conduct and may even elope with a foreign Head of State. The way to save America is to vote the Obama/Biden ticket.

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

Obama is for one world govt. He's no American patriot!!!!

Sarah Palin loves both God & country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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