National electoral map: Obama solidifies lead; time slipping for McCain-Palin

Freshman Democratic Illinois Sen. Barack Obama picks up Virginia's 13 electoral votes but sees Colorado slip back into tossup status, according to the latest national electoral map based on on state polls compiled by Karl Rove & Co.

This is the second week that Obama has held a hypothetical majority of the electoral college votes. He now has 277 compared to 163 for the Republican ticket of Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin, with the 98 remaining votes still in the tossup column.

These totals do not include any state polling done after Tuesday night's presidential town-hall debate in Nashville.

But Rove notes that even so, time is running out for the GOP ticket as Obama is developing two- or three-point leads in states like Ohio, Florida and Nevada, all of which voted Republican in 2004.

"McCain will need to change the trend quickly," Rove says, "to begin closing Obama’s lead over the next 31/2 weeks."

A chart showing the polls' weekly movements since July 1 and this research's methodology are published on the jump; click the Read more line below. Rove also publishes a regular collection of his analysis and writings available via e-mail by signing up here.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Methodology

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as tossups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated.

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

Credit: Map and chart courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.

Comments

[john]

Where is this money coming from?
I thought he was not involvedwith the rich.....
WOWWWWWWWW

[Jim]

A very interesting graph. Obama has Hawaii by 41%!!!
But what's this?!? I almost dropped my bowl of Cherrios!

This graph is from Karl Roverer and Company, spawn of the Gauleiter of Oldenberg! FEH!

[Ian]

Go obama we need change.. by the way to any voters in washington state Do NOT vote for dino rossi he well screw us all!

[Don]

WOW. Well if the left wing liberal news media says so it must be true.

Dear Obama Supporters, the race is over, Obama has won in a landslide. No need to show up at the polls on November 4th. Don't waste your time, when you could be at home burning your flags, spitting on veterans, and bad-mouthing the constitution. No need to miss out on your activities, the liberal news media sasy the vote is already over.

[frank burns]

My dad once said, if you want to really judge a man's character, see how he acts when he is in a corner. John McCain, despite his high points in the past, is now pathetic. His and Palin's attack politics are weakiening the nation, no matter who wins. They are playing the game of "country last."

[Jeff]

Dear Don, I will be voting along with many liberals, moderates and conservatives on 11/4/08 for Barack Obama b/c we love this country, just like you. Stop creating divisions and let's come together and fix this mess man.

[Kerry]

The people who wonder where the money is coming from for Obama need only to be on the list for election updates from the Obama camp as we are.

We donate $5.00 whenever we can and if all Obama followers are making donations of $5, $10, $20 that adds up to an unlimited amount of campaign funds which the McCain camp is incapable of doing for obvious reason. I l love hearing the same fools who voted twice for Bush wondering why their candidate is falling fast. And as far as credibility, Obama, McCain, Biden, and Hillary Clinton were fully vetted...How much was the "killing wolves from a plane" Palen vetted? And those McCain backers need to read more about his past...You would be shocked...

Negativity may have worked in the past, but now it's like going hunting with Cheney making quail noises in the Bush....

[Den Gran]

Don is very typical of unthinking rednecks who claim that liberals are burning flags, badmouthing the constitution, and spitting on veterans. Your education has failed you, my ignorant fellow citizen. I'm a veteran. I don't burn flags. I wouldn't spit on other veterans. No reasonable person would, regardless of their political bent. Obviously, Don hasn't actually researched the constitutional issues or he wouldn't say such a stupid thing. Liberals simply want the religious right to stay out of our politics. Only the extreme right wishes to change the constitution. Liberals, on the other hand, want to protect the constitution to keep flag burning, abortion, and theocratic law out of it. We're tired of outdated conservatism affecting our lives. Until recently, our state still had blue laws on the books, so you couldn't do any kind of retail shopping on Sunday. Why should the rest of us have to live with ridiculous christian impositions on our lives? So, don, don't make such broad characterizations about us liberals. It's clear from reading these comments the the liberals are, in general, much more intelligent than the conservatives. Just an observation, folks. Don't get mad at me. I'm just telling the truth. Conservatism is dying, thank Zeus! We love Obama here in my middle class suburban neighborhood.

[JeffC]

I hate to join in, but Don is clearly missing something if he thinks Karl Rove & Co is liberal. Oh, the irony, screaming out the "liberal media" attack, even when the information is from a right-wing group.

[Jackson]

Frank Burns, your dad is a MORON! There is nothing "pathetic" about war hero and Senator McCain, a dignified and respected man. That cannot be said about Obama, an inexperienced, egotistical, fluff candidate who is simply running on CHANGE. Change is all you will have left in your pocket if Obama wins!

[Raby]

I love u obama I prayer to allah everyday that one day u will be our first black president. If McCain wins I'm going to kill myself seriously.obama I just won't u to no we go your back all the way.

P.s. I live in Arizona