National electoral map: Ominous Obama trend against McCain

It's only three electoral votes, but new state polls in once reliably Republican North Dakota have shifted the state from the column of Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin.

And new state poll research provided to The Ticket by Karl Rove & Co. now puts that state in the tossup column. Not a good sign for the GOP this close to Nov. 4.

The hypothetical electoral vote count by Rove now gives Barack Obama 313, 43 more than necessary for victory, while McCain has 171 and 54 electoral votes remain in the tossup category.

"McCain," Rove notes, "needs to begin moving states out of Obama's column to remain competitive."

Click on the Read more line below to view a weekly chart of the electoral vote movements since July 1 and for an explanation of the research's methodology.

— Andrew Malcolm

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Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three- point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

This national electoral map and weekly chart are published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.

Comments

[gr82have]

this looks like another karl rove tactic to lull democrats into complacency so that they slow down their ad spends.very cunnning guy

[Jon Iscream]

You guys at the LA Times have been listening to the AP again. Barack Obama has never had any chance of becoming President in this election. It is evil for you to mislead the American people in this way. When he loses and the gangs in South LA burn their neighborhoods, I hope that your subscribers hold you responsible!

[jeremy]

why exactly is this change labelled 'ominous' by an ostensibly impartial news-source?

[HoraceManoor]

Bush's brain Karl -- Karl Marx -- no banker left behind

Americans twice elected Bush, a Jesus freak who's dumber than a doorknob, just like Palin, which is why she'll help McCain win, allowing him to wreak vengeance on the world for his singing to the North Vietnamese

[Robert Prowler]

John McCain tried to highjack the code word 'change' for the Obama campaign but failed. The principal reason for that failure is that he has offered nothing new to the American people. Therefore I would question his sanity because if a person keeps doing the same thing over and over and expects a different outcome he has to be not all there.

[Jim on Pensacola Beach]

O'Bama is not showing that he is a Socialist, now consider this, if we start Socialism, there is no turning back. Capitalism, is what has made this country great. We are now in a lull and things will straighten out eventually, just like they always have. With a 60% Democratic Congress and Democrat President there will be No checks and Balances. In 1975, if you made $30,000, your tax rate was 69%. It can get that way again under Socialim, then you’ll be Praying that the Republican were back…. and it will be too late. Our Republicans have been poor leaders lately, but they are better than the alternatives of the Democrats that will make our country Socialist.

[davide]

"McCain," Rove notes, "needs to begin moving states out of Obama's column to remain competitive."

What a genius !

[dragonfly777]

Today 9/18/08 I read that Louis Farrakan the Islamic leader in Chicago is starting the New Nation of Islam as Barack Obama is poised to take the White House. Obama, Ayers and Farrakan all live within 8 blocks of each other. Obama's preacher Reverend Wright gave Farrakan an award for in Wright's opinion being an outstanding leader. Farrakan's belief is all whites are from the devil and that blacks are the chosen people of Allah. I think it is interesting how all of these factors and events are so closely related. Abraham Lincoln said,"It is not the enemy from outside I fear, but the enemy within."
The media and cult behavior of Obama's supporters and his questionable associates should be an alarm to us. Obama and his beliefs are a threat to our way of American life.

"In a blind Kingdom the one-eyed man is king."

[Richard Hall]

Personally, I hope this is not a close election. The two parties are even now in stealing elections. The Democrats did it in 1960 and the Republicans in 2000. If the Republicans are even thinking about trying to steal this one perhaps they should remember what happened after the Rodney King verdict. The reaction to this election being stolen by the Republicans would be massive rioting on a scale never seen before in this country. We shall soon see if their mantra "Country First" is for real.

[mickey]

Why would anyone believe anything Karl Rove says?

[Avery St. Clair]

"Ominous"?? Couldn't you at least try to conceal your bias? Instead, how about "Encouraging Obama Trend against McCain"?

"Ominous" is defined as "threatening or foreshadowing evil or tragic developments".

As demonstrated by your own map, the majority sees these political developments as portending a joyful outcome.

The only reason anyone reads newspapers at all, any more, is because they enjoy the competent use of written English. Your preposterous headline is ominous for your industry!

[marilyn]

Karl the monster under the bed Rove.

[Rick, Newport WA]

Jim on Pensacola Beach,

Taxes at 69% huh, do you really think people are stupid enough to believe your scare tactics? Wake up man, there may be some gullible people in this country, but not that bad. For one thing, back in 1975 making 30K a year was a lot different than it is now, and second, I seriously doubt people were ever taxed that high in this country. You need to just go take your Geritol and your Alzheimer medicine and check the facts.

[nObama 2008!]

Richard Hall,

Intimidating a country into voting for your chosen one, Obama, is exactly why we need to have requirements for voters. Not everyone has a right to vote and you are the poster child for not allowing this privilege that so many have fought for. Change, believe, hope, or else "massive rioting on a scale never seen before". Obama 2008!

[Richard Hall]

nObama 2008 wrote:

Richard Hall,

Intimidating a country into voting for your chosen one, Obama, is exactly why we need to have requirements for voters. Not everyone has a right to vote and you are the poster child for not allowing this privilege that so many have fought for. Change, believe, hope, or else "massive rioting on a scale never seen before". Obama 2008!

-------------------------------------

Whoa, wait a minute here. You are saying that my right to vote should be taken away for predicting that there will be violence if an election is stolen? Who died and left you the Ayatollah? I will continue to observe the political scene and post at my leisure, thank you. No fascist is going to take away my right to vote in the USA or my right to speak my mind. The neo-cons have seriously damaged this nation by setting the tone for someone even challenging another's right to vote for exercising his free speech. My freedoms are as important as any Republican's, sir, and don't you forget it.

[nobull1955]

I can handle losing if everything is on the up and up but I believe action needs to be taken if another election is stolen.
As far as Farrakan beliefs about whites being from the devil, and Blacks being the chosen people of Allah there's plenty of whites that believe blacks are of the devil and feel chosen by their God.
It's pathetic regardless of who say's it.
If your God's or Allah's or Jesus' chosen people,stay out of politics and trust your God to take care of you.
Jesus said his kingdom was not of this world if it were he would fight for it. Leave your relgion out of politics or let your God Inc.Money Grubbing,Mind Controlling organization start paying taxes.
50+ yr. old white,blue collar,southern male with no religous affiliation who as already voted for Obama.

[chris stover]

Barack Obama = Socialism....redistribution of weath....large government with ever increasing layers of bureaucracy....more government spending resulting in a larger debt. Also people need to stop saying that the entire country will break out into riots. Its not going to happen and everyone knows it. There have been plenty of controversial elections and none of them resulted in complete anarchy.

[moonbuggy]

To those who think Obama will make this a socialist country, you are stupid. OK, maybe that's not the best way to convince you... BUT it's true. I find that everyone who says we will become socialistic can never explain them selfs, nor do they know what they are talking about. These tend to be the same people who think Obama is somehow a terrorist. Let's be clear. A socialistic society is typically one where pretty much everything extra you make is redistributed. That IS NOT what obama proposes at all.. Nor is it even close. In fact mccain's plan is actually more socialistic. OK, am I some stupid liberal ? No, I'm actually right. First of all, Obama is talking about only a small change to only 1% of people and then that change is only 3%. It's a modification in taxes that is actually smaller than some of the changes we've seen in the past in other decades.

But what about McCain's plan to buy up all the failed mortgages? What do you think happens when he buys all those? That's right. Billions of dollars are transfered and redistributed. The effect is FAR MORE than the effect of Obama's plan. In fact senior republicans have blasted McCain for what they really said is socialistic. However, McCain never really said Obama was a socialist because he doesn't want to get caught in a lie.

Play it all back and you will discover mccain is only hinting that he is one. He also hints he's a terrorist. DON'T YOU GET IT? Don't you see what mccain is doing? It's very sneaky. But the bottom line is NEITHER one of them are socialist as the top officials wouldn't stand for that. They would never even make it into office if this were true. The only one pushing the envelope is mccain with the idea of buying the mortgages. But mccain spends all his time attacking Obama.

So then everyone thinks it's all about Obama. Now try explaining that to millions of uneducated idiots across the net. It will never happen. Same as the Joe the Plumber story which is pretty much fake. He will never pay a dime in increases because he will never make over 250k. And that's 250k AFTER all expenses by the way. But Joe keeps talking and dummies keep believing.. Believe what you like, but Obama is no socialist. It's a myth spread around the net to capture all the stupid teen agers and 25 year olds that still think like teens and can't do the math.

[allamerican]

Remember all, however the outcome we all are going to live under the same roof when it is all over. I have never seen such a violent division between two parties. Don't let the media do this to you. There are shameful voters on both sides, they spotlight the quacks that really are insignificant and not representative of how people really feel. It is not a racial issue, but you are letting them make you believe it is; rather it is an issue of morals and preferences. Instead of discounting and putting each person down, try to explain your side without so much anger. Stop buying the B.S. You have all bought into the trash talking and it is disgusting. Do your research, study the facts and make an educated vote based off of your own morals, not the media. As far as the seemingly threatening remarks about riots if Obama does not win, it is an embarrassment to our society. I am passionate about my political views, but I am not going to participate in non-productive slandering.

[opozar]

Karl Rove is saying exactly what is happening! To all you hard core conservatives with values that do not resprensent the growing trend of Americans whose values are becoming more representative of those in Europe, I have news for your, your days are over.
Barak Obama was exactly right when he said, "When times are bad, they cling to their guns and religion!" This is the mentality of many American people. If you look at the electoral map, the more educated the population, the philosophical mindset is more Democratic. It's time for America to embrace the 21 st. century, and not move back into the 18 century. I'm a college educated white man in my 30's, and I'm so glad that Obama will be president. The future is ours!

[susan]

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant and equal.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote (270 of 538). All the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the candidate with the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

[John Morrison]

It's Obamanous.

The republicans have screwed up royally. They are FIRED. Enough stupid incompetence.

[Chattie]

I want someone to look into this group and see if you are somehow changing your voting status when you are signing up for this gas card which use to be iPhone.

Here is the Address and this is for the McCain group which is putting this out and about.

DEDICATED SURVEY GROUP
ATTN: CUSTOMER CARE
9-334 QUEEN STREET SOUTH
SUITE 220
BOLTON, ONTARIO L7E-2N9

[Mandy Jayne]

Dear Chattie,
FYI W.O. for the group you mentioned above. (W.O.=Watch Out)
They keep trying to get me to sign up for high interest rate credit cards, new cars, book clubs, you name it, they have it. They offer a score of tempting prizes. To win you must sign up for offers you are not interested in, or buy something.

This is all I know.

The phone/voting status thing sounds pretty out there- if that really happens it ought to be illegal.
Steer clear of these guys- I'm not saying they are illegal, I am saying they promise much without delivering anything. Anyone else have comments?