National electoral map: McCain loses Nevada to Obama as time grows short

As history predicts, national polls began showing a distinct tightening in the presidential race between the Republican ticket of Sen. John McCain and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and Democratic Sens. Barack Obama and Joe Biden this week.

But with time running out before Tuesday's balloting -- and millions already having voted early -- state polls, which usually do trail national surveys, have yet to show any discernible movement toward McCain, according to new research just released by Karl Rove & Co.

Sixty-six new state polls since The Ticket last published this map on Sunday have seen Obama's leads solidify and moved Nevada's five electoral votes from the tossup category to Obama's column.

This gives the freshman Illinois senator 311 hypothetical electoral votes to McCain's 157 and 70 still tossups. (270 are needed for victory.)

McCain's road is growing steeper as he must, according to Rove, pick up all the remaining tossup states plus win several larger states, such as Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania. 

--Andrew Malcolm

But there's no doubt about the outcome of Ticket readers registering here to receive free alerts to their cellphone when each new Ticket item is posted.

National electoral map and chart below published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.

Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a 3-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as tossups; states outside the 3-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Published by Top of the Ticket with permission of Karl Rove & Co.

Comments

[Lee]

I am a Nevada citizen (lived here for over 40 years) and have looked up every night the voting results of Washoe and Clark counties (the two major counties of Nevada). In 2000/2004 Washoe County went to Bush which tipped the scale and turned the State (Red) with all the little northern counties added in together. In the early voting days it has been almost a 2 to 1 ratio of Democrats over Republicans voting. Clark County has already exceeded record early voting numbers! This election I will be celebrating my State of Nevada going Blue! Yoohoo

[LMills259]

I don't think anyone would call Karl Rove a choir boy. Does he have ulterior motives either way? That is, might he nudge the numbers Obama's way to prompt Republicans into action? Or might he nudge them McCain's way, if he wanted to encourage them? Remember, this is the man who while predicting a good GOP result in 2006, said the math - not his math but THE math - showed Republicans solidly retaining the Senate. So he's not above twisting and spinning.

[AnonymousUserInDenver]

I'm from Montana and my family up there and in North Dakota are indicating Obama will sweep both by 5-7%. They're diehard Republicans and Democrats both, and have been politically active for both parties for a long time. The last time they agreed on things like this was in 84, that Mondale was a terrible candidate. So, I'd take Rove's presentation with a tub of salt and predict Obama winning both states by a substantial margin.

[AnonymousUserInDenver]

I'm from Montana and my family up there and in North Dakota are indicating Obama will sweep both by 5-7%. They're diehard Republicans and Democrats both, and have been politically active for both parties for a long time. The last time they agreed on things like this was in 84, that Mondale was a terrible candidate. So, I'd take Rove's presentation with a tub of salt and predict Obama winning both states by a substantial margin.

[AnonymousUserInDenver]

I'm from Montana and my family up there and in North Dakota are indicating Obama will sweep both by 5-7%. They're diehard Republicans and Democrats both, and have been politically active for both parties for a long time. The last time they agreed on things like this was in 84, that Mondale was a terrible candidate. So, I'd take Rove's presentation with a tub of salt and predict Obama winning both states by a substantial margin.

[lisa w]

Pollers and media are way off on this.

Obama has parts of the South. The parts that only have cell phones and no home phones.

Students, poor black and white families with cell phones and no home phones.

Obama is going to win in a HUGE VICTORY, even in the South.

[Sydney]

Carl Rove is a master strategist. He is also a republican. These numbers are too easy to manipulate to get the die hard republicans to get out and vote.

It is amazing that in this great country of ours, we can ignore the reality of last 8 years:
- Four recessions
- Salaries going down
- Stock market plunge
- The plundering of our wallets by the Exxon and the rest of the oil industry
- The lies promulgated from the pulpit to shore up the vast tax exampt havens of the private churches.
- The deaths of young men in the name of Jihad by the Bush the Terrorist!
- The lies fed to the Fox News watchers by an Australian named Murdoch!
- The stupidity of some people to believe the lies
- The death of the American psyche
- The coronation of Palins
- The death of the real morality of religions

If you are a moral, moderate and law abiding citizen, then you need to stand up and speak that the religious right is neither. It is neither religious or right! It is made up of people like Palin who believe they are above what they preach. Look at all the preachers who fall with the slightest temptation.

It is time for America to renew it contract with morality and human rights!

[Exrepublican]

At last, hope for our country. Every major problem we have now can be accounted for by three Special Interest influenced policies of the Bush administration.

1. Tax cuts for the rich. The wealthy took these tax cuts that should have created jobs here and created jobs elsewhere. They don't care that the economy is sinking because they simply sell their products into other expanding markets created by the jobs that were outsourced. The American job market is the victim of the rule of greed in an unregulated global economy.

2. Oil dependency. Instead of investing in clean energy and reducing our dependency on foriegn oil we went to war to protect it. The US doesn't step in anytime some dictator rules a country, only when they have vested interests there. As a result of a failed energy policy, our nations security is at now at stake because of this dependency. In addition to that US Oil was allowed to deregulate the market causing huge spikes in oil prices from speculation and made US Oil even wealthier. The unfortunate casulties have been small businesses who couldn't survive the resulting spike in gas prices. The very people the GOP has sworn to protect were hurt the most.

3. Deregulation of the financial markets. An out of control wall street was responsible for entire real estate bubble. They made bad loans then bundled them up, sold off the risk, and let investors take the fall. The resulting real estate bubble artificially inflated prices allowing for even more bad loans. The boom in construction caused a dramatic influx of illegal aliens to enter the country to work those jobs. Then, when it all went south, the wealthy started dumping hedge funds which caused the resulting drop in the market to levels it was at before the bubble.

In reality there has been no economy for the last eight years. As a result, taxable income has dropped because jobs have left the country. That all but guarantees that the middle class will never be able to pay less taxes under the current policies.

The American people have been held hostage with issues like gun control, abortion, and separation of church and state, while the rich got richer and everybody else got poorer.

It's time to take this country back.

[The Red Hare]

Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin, what if things were
switched around?.....think about it. Would the country's
collective point of view be different?

Ponder the following:
What if the Obamas had paraded five children across the stage,
including a three month old infant and an unwed, pregnant teenage
daughter?
What if John McCain was a former president of the Harvard Law
Review?
What if Barack Obama finished fifth from the bottom of his graduating
class?
What if McCain had only married once, and Obama was a divorcee?
What if Obama was the candidate who left his first wife after a severe
disfiguring car accident, when she no longer measured up to his
standards?
What if Obama had met his second wife in a bar and had a long
affair while he was still married?
What if Michelle Obama was the wife who not only became addicted
to pain killers but also acquired them illegally through her charitable
organization?
What if Cindy McCain graduated from Harvard?
What if Obama had been a member of the Keating Five?
What if McCain was a charismatic, eloquent speaker?
What if Obama couldn't read from a teleprompter?
What if Obama was the one who had military experience that included
discipline problems and a record of crashing seven planes?
What if Obama was the one who was known to
display publicly, on many occasions, a serious anger management problem?
What if Michelle Obama's family had made their money from beer
distribution?
What if the Obamas had adopted a white child?
You could easily add to this list. If these questions reflected
reality, do you really believe the election numbers would be as close as
they
are?
This is what racism does. It covers up, rationalizes and minimizes
positive qualities in one candidate and emphasizes negative qualities
in another when there is a color difference.
Educational Background:
Barack Obama:
Columbia University - B.A. Political Science with a Specialization in
International Relations.
Harvard - Juris Doctor (J.D.) Magna Cum Laude
Joseph Biden:
University of Delaware - B.A. in History and B.A. in Political Science.
Syracuse University College of Law - Juris Doctor (J.D.)
vs.
John McCain:
United States Naval Academy - Class rank: 894 of 899
Sarah Palin:
Hawaii Pacific University - 1 semester
North Idaho College - 2 semesters - general study
University of Idaho - 2 semesters - journalism
Matanuska-Susitna College - 1 semester
University of Idaho - 3 semesters - B.A. in Journalism

Education isn't everything, but this is about the
two highest offices in the land as well as our
standing in the world. You make the call.

[Joe]

I never trust Bush but most others do that's why Bush has given us trouble alots. Bush never care about the little poor guys like you and me. Others have been fooled by Bush and it is too late now. But Voting McCain will continue Bush's ways of doing thing.

[Concerned]

I sure am glad all of you are ok with the U.S. becoming a socialized government... If you study history, you will know that the next step is communism... enjoy your right to vote while it lasts...

[robert]

Hey America....all this talk about Obama, Ayers, Dohrn etc. What if......John McCain was Brainwashed by the Communist North Viet Cong while he was a Prisoner of War there..... and they are just waiting to unleash him when he becomes President...... Bizzare thought....Could happen. Come on America ......get real...... Vote for the real Change....save yourselves...your Country and maybe even the world. Vote for Obama...he does not come from the wealthy and elite,he comes from a normal background like 85% of the American people. He can actually relate to your everyday problems. Think how often someone like Bush Senior and Junior or John McCain have ever had to deal with your type of everyday issues. Good Luck...use your head and not your issues with diversity.

[Renee Love]

McCain always says he has the experience he knows what to do so why did it take so long for him to run for President. If he felt so compelled to help. to clean up Washington why did he wait so long to run for President.. The thing that he learned in Washington is how to manipulate the American people. The man is stuck in his ways and does not want change. As the saying goes you can't teach an old----- new tricks. Don't let him trick you into believing he wants change.

[PleaseChange]

"I sure am glad all of you are ok with the U.S. becoming a socialized government... If you study history, you will know that the next step is communism... enjoy your right to vote while it lasts... "

Concerned, next step communism? Obama is not interested in pushing our Country towards socialism or communism. Still, look at all the European countries that have adopted some parts of socialism and they did it a LONG time ago. I don't see their governments blasting towards communism. Thoughts?

[independantJoe]

All this talk of socialism et al is fear mongering. As powerful as the President is he alone cannot establish a socialist government in the USA. Any President would have to have the backing of a majority in Congress just to begin such a change. That ain't gonna happen. No one knows what either candidate will accomplish in office. Clearly, few believe any candidate will get done what he/she claims in a campaign. Let us not forget that a President is the leader of his political party in addition to his duty to us. Without the support of his party any President will fail. So as much as any candidate may differ from the previous office holder of his party he must include elements of said party in his Administration. Therefore one must consider if they are happy with the work/leadership of the current Administration. If you are vote to keep them in power. If not change it. It is that simple.

[NinaK]

The McCain supporters have learned well from John McCain and Sarah Palin: FEAR, FEAR, FEAR, and more FEAR. SCARE, SCARE, SCARE, and more SCARE. Folks, this is NO way to live and it is time McCain, Palin, the republs and their zealots stop the scare and fear mongering!! We are NOT buying it, NOT in 2008, NOT now, NOT ever again!! McCain and Palin have NOTHING good to offer our country; all the have been doing is accusing Senator Obama of anything and everything, no matter how UNTRUE!! Haven't we had enough of fear mongering these past eght years?? SCARE TACTICS AND FEAR ACCOMPLISH ABSOLUTELY NOTHING EXCEPT CHAOS, MISTRUST, AND DESTRUCTION OF A NATION. Are all of you blind?? Look where the United States is today!! I don't know about you, but I sure as heck do NOT like what the repubs have done to our country and to our economy and our livelihood!! I want us to get out of this deep slump and reach for higher ground in all aspects, I want hope and inspiration, for these are what gives us purpose and goals to build upon. McCain and Palin are not inspiring, they are destructive and keep promoting FEAR and DOOMSDAYS! Enough is enough!! Right now our country is in the darkness, let's move out of that darkness into sunlight and move forward. We, the people, are the ones that have to power to make this happen, let's get moving and vote for the two people who truely care about our country: Obama-Biden 2008!! Don't let the fear being spewed by McCain, Pilan, and their supporters paralize us!!!

[Rene]

If any of you wants to know what socialism is, look up to Alaska and the high class. Rick Santorum said today "if Barack qualifies so is Palin". Sorry but you are wrong Rick. Palin is a confusing woman that can not focus on important issues more than 12 minutes. Last nigh I was wondering if Hank Williams was the one running for VP or Palin.

McCain is the least person to be President. He's a bellicose person who supports military intervention rather than diplomacy. And keeps making clear He's ready to prove that to other countries who supposedly are "our enemies" using millitary force. McCain is a person that can not be trusted with United States economy and He is clear to follow the Bush Doctrine, which diverted all the wealth it was created in the '90s to contractors making business offshore, in Iraq, and weapons manufacturers. If McCain ends up in the White House; United States will become a second USSR.

[Disgusted]

How awful for the press in America to have already declared the winner of the office of president and commander in chief BEFORE the election is even held. The liberal media has for over a year attempted to give Obama great positive coverage to brainwash the American people and with the polls are saying "don't bother to vote for McCain as Obama's lead is so hugh that your vote won't matter". Damn you, press for the propaganda and distorted news coverage. Hope you continue to lose subscribers and advertisers and go out of business.

[Disgusted]

One commenter asked for thoughts of European socialism. Take France: The workers there got so used to socialism that they demanded more and more: 30 hrs. work weeks, month plus vacation time, company autos for low level employees, etc. One major U.S. co. doing business there several years ago their executives said continuing business there was too difficult and expensive. They have since elected a conservative who is attempting to fix all the socialist mistakes. Why are the European countries not strong? They let in the Muslims in the '80s (socialism) and are having severe problems with radical Islamic terrorist, some native born who hold European passports and who can easily enter the U.S. Western Europe is predicted to have a majority population by the turn of the century of Muslims. South American is turning toward communism. Chavez just accepted millions of aid from Russia and Russia has a military presence in that country and are attempting to influence other S. American countries. You don't believe socialism is a problem? Study a bit more and go travel to those countries. Unemployment is high, taxes are outrageous, and their economies are worse than ours. I've traveled the world and can tell you that socialism is hell.

[lightnin]

Barack Obama has not associated with "Rev." Wright and his "church", Louis Farrakhan, "Father" Phleger, Tony Rezko, William Ayers & Bernadine Dohrne, Rashid Khalidi, Mazen Asbahi, ACORN, and abortion extremists IN SPITE of their offensive or criminal activities, but BECAUSE of them! That's what ATTRACTS him to them!

[phl]

McCAIN, age 72 IS FOR McCAIN FIRST, NOT COUNTRY.McCAIN IS FOR BIG MONEY, NOT THE REAL PEOPLE. McCAIN HAS SHOWN HIS 72 YEAR OLD JUGEMENT BY PICKING SARAH DUH PALIN. McCAIN, age 72 SHOULD RETIRE AND ENJOY WHAT TIME HE HAS LEFT WITH HIS WIFE'S MONEY. LETS VOTE FOR A REAL PRESIDENT OF THE REAL PEOPLE, VOTE OBAMA!

[noema]

This word “socialist” keeps getting thrown around in a way that doesn’t mean what people think it means.

Simply put, socialism refers to the state ownership of the means of production, with people employed according to their means and compensated according their needs.

Socialism has little to do with welfare or taxes or healthcare. If government programs are socialism, where is the demand from the over-65 crowd, one of the nation's most politically powerful, to be spared from Medicare as an affront to their capitalist chastity?

Obama isn’t a socialist anymore than McCain is a fascist. It’s a canard. Capitalism administered by the state is still capitalism.

[JD]

What is this "if you study history" BS? In fact, there is no government in world history which has ever transitioned from democratic socialism to communism. EVER. The Bolsheviks had a violent revolution from a monarchy.

Not that it's relevant, since Obama's policies are fairly moderate. But to suggest that there's actually a history of democracies turning into communist nations without military conquest is just a pure lie.

[GaryN]

Why is it socialism to tax the wealthy at the rate they were taxed under Clinton, and to tax the middle class at the rate they were taxed under Richard Nixon? That is the supposed "socialism" that the Rethugs are getting upset about. Even the billionaire Warren Buffet thinks that it is scandalous that he pays 17.7 % in taxes, and his receptionist pays 30% in taxes on her little salary!!! And yet right wing fundamentalist fanatics like James Dobson are saying that Obama will mean "the end of American life as we have known it." Rhetoric like that is a covert appeal to violence. God help the United States and Barack Obama!