Barack Obama gets a polling boost ... but is it to be believed?

[UPDATED BELOW]

Fittingly, perhaps, for the start of the last full month of the presidential race, today may well be remembered as the moment it became clear Barack Obama was headed to the White House -- or a point in time that underscored pollsters have no clue.

In a couple of the national polls -- an ABC News/Washington Post survey and the daily tracking report by Gallup Co. -- leads Obama enjoyed against John McCain shrunk a bit, to be sure.

But overall, as shown at RealClearPolitics.com., he has staked out a consistent advantage in the various nationwide soundings of voter attitudes.

The national polls, though, become increasingly irrelevant as election day nears. What counts, as the Obama brain trust likes to stress, is what's happening in each state -- especially those that have told the tale in the last two presidential elections.

And in three of these states, new results -- if correct -- put Obama in a commanding position to win in November.

The numbers from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute gave him an eyebrow-raising double-digit lead in Pennsylvania -- a must-win for the Democratic ticket. Even more surprisingly, the institute's figures put Obama solidly ahead in Ohio and Florida.

Carrying either state would virtually assure an Obama administration.

Peter Brown, assistant director for the polling unit, summarized the findings thusly:

Sen. Obama clearly won the debate, voters say. Their opinion of Gov. Sarah Palin has gone south and the Wall Street meltdown has been a dagger to McCain's political heart. Roughly a third of voters, and almost as large a share of the key independent vote, say McCain did more harm than good in trying to resolve the financial crisis, and the share of voters who see the economy as the top issue has risen from roughly half to six in ten.

Then again, Quinnipiac may be giving us a bum steer. Other surveys in Ohio and Florida (see here and here) for the most part have shown nail-biters.

[Update: Time magazine/CNN polls for a slew of hotly contested states were released later in the day and, again, the news was all good for Obama.

[The surveys put him comfortably ahead in Minnesota and Virginia (long a Republican bastion), in the lead in Florida and Nevada and in a virtual tie with McCain in Missouri.

[It's apparent Obama caught a wave of positive public feelings as September was coming to an end. The question now is whether his campaign can sustain that trend.]

-- Don Frederick

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Photo credit: Associated Press

Comments

[TruAmerican]

It is so pathetic that white women see voting for a black man is fashion while ignoring one of their own, Sarah Palin.

[Doug Edelman]

For a WORKABLE plan that addresses the financial crisis without socializing the markets or giving corporate welfare to Wall Street, see http://starboard.blogtownhall.com.

How much is $700 Billion?

More than the government spent COMBINED in Fiscal 2006 for:

Medicaid $180.6 in Billions
Education $118.6
Health $ 63.9
Transportation $ 70.2
Veterans Benefits $ 70.0
Community Development $ 54.5
Food & Nutrition Assistance $ 53.9
Justice System $ 41.0
Housing Assistance $ 38.3
TOTAL: $691.0

Source: Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 2006

According to CNN August 14, there were 750,000 homes in foreclosure. In addition to hurting the homeowners, these assets set the value of the banks' capitol plummeting due to Mark to Market Accounting rules.

$700 Billion divided by 750,000 homes = 933,333 PER HOME!

The following is not the WORKABLE plan at the link above, but it facetiously points out the FOLLY of the Paulson Plan, with or without tweaks:

Forget the Paulson plan. Instead, why not give each homeowner $100,000 toward their mortgage to keep them in their home and reduce or eliminate their balance. Refinance any remaining balance for 15 years at 7% fixed. This will cost taxpayers only $75 Billion, the homeowners keep their homes and reduce or eliminate their house payments. The banks get instant liquidity. Balances under $100,000 are paid off. They convert bad loans over $100,000 balance to smaller, better risk loans at a nice fat 7%.

The only loser... the guy who bought a home he can afford, and who continues making his payments, on time.

As crazy as this proposal would be... it works better and protects the taxpayer better than any proposal currently on the floor of either house of congress!

[Paul T.]

After 8 years of Republicans doing everything imaginable to ruin our country I think these recent poll numbers are easy to believe.

[Sandra S]

"Barack Obama gets a polling boost ... but is it to be believed?"

What kind of a convoluted question is that? If you're a McCain fan, then fine, but don't word these headers as if you are. Obama is ahead in the polls. There is no question PERIOD. If the polls hold, then he will be POTUS PERIOD. If they don't then we shall see what happens. If anything is to be believed, then it is that the polls do not truly reflect the lead which Obama probably has which is a lot larger than the polls reflect. Thank you.

[dressypink]

After the debate Sara should now go home for the good of the nation. After Thursday, there will be no doubt that McCain and the GOP can no longer fool the American people. One ignorant and corky Bush is one too many in a lifetime.

[Matt]

Sheesh, guys. It's bad enough that some of the polls are rigged -- ABC/WaPo made its polling sample whiter and more Republican in order to make the race look closer.

Now you're saying that any poll in which Obama is ahead must be a "bum steer" -- just because it doesn't show the neck-and-neck race you most want to cover? C'mon. At least pretend to be credible.

[VJ Machiavelli]

Will you love Obama in November as you do in September.

I don't think so

VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com