The Sarah Palin poll bounce for John McCain

A John McCain strategist gained a lot of attention a few weeks back when she predicted a huge "bounce" in the polls for Barack Obama following the Democratic National Convention.

The strategist was exaggerating for effect and, as most pundits had anticipated, Obama came out of his party's confab in Denver with a solid — but by no means exceptional — uptick in his poll standing.

The big bounce, at least based on a new survey by the venerable Gallup Organization, was McCain's to be had — apparently spurred in large part by the enthusiasm with which many voters have greeted his choice of Sarah Palin as a running mate.

The poll, based on interviews done Friday through Sunday and conducted in conjunction with USA Today, finds that among all registered voters, the McCain ticket now leads Obama's, 50% to 46%. That's an 8-percentage-point turnabout in a matter of a few weeks; in a comparable survey taken Aug. 21 through Aug. 23, Obama led among registered voters, 47% to 43%.

The change in attitude among those judged by the pollsters as likely voters was even more pronounced. In the new poll, McCain was ahead, 54% to 44%. Obama led in the August survey, 48% to 45%.

In the separate daily tracking poll that Gallup conducts, which averages three days of interviews with registered voters, McCain has jumped to a 5-percentage-points lead.

At a briefing during the Democratic convention, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe stressed that he or his staff make a point of ignoring the national polls, preferring to concentrate on what's happening state by state. Still, it's hard to imagine that these new results aren't causing some heartburn at Obama headquarters in Chicago.

[UPDATE: Two other national polls released today gauge the race a flat-out tie. A CNN survey gave each candidate 48% among registered voters. A poll for the National Journal's Hotline, which also quizzed registered voters, showed them with 44% apiece.]

— Don Frederick

Photo credit: Getty Images 

Comments

[Lee]

1. Obama has himself to blame for this bounce--do you see him out there giving the opposition's failure and the reasons he should be elected?

2. Like all true believers, the right wing of the Republican party is riding the engine of failure right over the cliff--if you don't believe me go to your nearest public library and check out a brief book on the Peloponnesian War.

[V]

SAD commentary on America.

[Darryl]

If all it takes is to stand up in front of people and lie through your teeth to become president then I could be the next president. Why do so many people buy into McCain and Palin's lies. Don't they check facts, oh yea, truth is in the ear of the listener.

[farmer5]

This too will pass.

[Brian]

That or they are actually taking a look at Obama's record.
Palin did this, not that she was all that great, but it made people take a look at Obama's record when they tried to compare.

Obama = only submitted 2 ammendments to full bills. Those amendments he CO-authored. And thats all he's done in 3 years... and barely on any committees.

They compared what he will do with education = give more money to bureaucracy and teacher unions. Basically throwing money at the problem while not fixing it compare to Mccain's voucher idea that is proven to help children.

They are comparing tax plans and why raising taxes ( even on very rich) will cost more jobs. That raising taxes on EVRERYONE's capital gains (everyone's savings, mutual funds, investments) is still raising taxes on most middle class.

They are comparing Mccains LAST year only 90% with voting with Republican senators to Obama's 95-97% with Democrats in last 3 years.

"in 2007 McCain voted in line with the president's position 95 percent of the time – the highest percentage rate for McCain since Bush took office – and voted in line with his party 90 percent of the time. However, McCain's support of President Bush's position has been as low as 77 percent (in 2005), and his support for his party's position has been as low as 67 percent (2001)."

Thank god people arent as stupid as most hoped they were.

[Heather W.]

I'd like to know how they choose who they poll? Neither I, nor anybody I know has ever been asked to participate in any of these polls and we're huge Obama supporters. I wouldn't watch the polls either. They mean nothing at this point.

[plankbob]

McCain is used to admitting that economic theory is not his strong suit. It look like it's not his running mate soulmate's either.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/08/palin-makes-her-first-gaf_n_124792.html

But they know foreign policy. Don't they?

[Mary]

To sustain the bounce, Sarah Palin is going to have to keep talking to the American people to show then she understands how to lead us out of this economic pain. Judging from her gaffe today in which she said that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had been costing the government too much money, she has no earthly idea what is going on with our economy. I would say that Sarah Palin is source of great heartburn to the McCain campaign.

[BeeVee]

I am shocked that people are taken by the looks of a woman VP candidate to elect a president without even thinking that a totally novice of national politics is only one hearbeat away from becoming president herself. Can the nation deal with such a disaster?

[marty Curran]

So many Americans are insane. If we had a democrat president with these same economic conditions and failed wars in Afgan & Irag the same people would be calling for impeachment and the crucifixtion of all democrats. These pole numbers are disgusting.

[captbilly]

It would seem that many AMericans view this election as some sort of reality TV show. You pick the candidate who you would kind of like to see win. Now in a game show that's all harmless enough but in a Presidential election it could be disasterous for America. I was in a Chinese takeout restaurant a couple of days ago and this biker guy comes in and starts talking to the owner of the restaurant about how everyone he knows is going to vote for McCain. He went on to say that Palin is a good mother and can raise a family and be VP.

The simplicity of this guy was almost touching. Obviously he knew nothing of Palin's beliefs, or the way McCain's economic policies would effect him, nor did he probably care. He is living on the fringe of society, and seems content to stay there. I guess his vote is more like a statement about the fact that it's kind of cool how a redneck from Alaska who's kids have the same kinds of problems as his parents did, and who likes to hunt and say redneck things, is now the VP candidate on a major ticket. THe problem is that this isn't a game and when the election is over you can't just turn the channel and expect it to all go away.

It is very telling about how distant people feel from thier government when they don,t feel that it has anything to do with the real world they live in.

[wtobias]

it only counts when obama is in the lead is what the they should say

[Bob Branson]

One things for sure. The Obama folks no longer have the "she hasn't done enough" strategy. In fact, democrats would do better by not minimizing what she has done. There's a lot of people that don't want "their gal that knows a little about the North Face Oil Slopes " trivialized.
I think the Obama campaign needs to have a meeting.>

[John]

Once again the GOP appeals to the dumbest among us. Th country will turn into a third world shit hole at this rate. Please don't let them steal this election too.......

[Kori]

I am seriously disappointed, but not surprised, that the American people have so thoroughly fallen for McCain's latest ploy for votes. I like Sarah Palin, too, and understand her appeal. But let's not forgetting that we're still voting for the top half of the ticket, and John McCain is not presidential material.

[clover2]

The reaction to Sarah Paliin is just plain irrational. Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that McCain was mocking Obama's celebrity status.

It seems we're back to selecting our elected officials based upon thei beer-drinking buddy (and now hockey mom) scale. Look where that got us with Bush.

David Frum, one of Dubya's own speechwriters has now made a comparison between Bush and Sarah Palin in his online diary found in National Review (9/6/08). It's worth reading. Karl Rove might as well be running McCain's campaign with the similar "Bush again" results for this country.

[Marcy]

Let's be careful about putting too much trust in polls. They do not target cell phone users, which encompasses a majority of the younger voters who are leaning heavily toward Obama. When the real Sarah Palin comes out from behind the curtain, some of the bounce will go splat! Her poor handling of a sports complex project in Wasilla left the town in big debt. (This is according to an article in the Sept. 6 Wall STreet Journal- which has never been a "left wing liberal" newspaper).Her extreme views do not jive with the more moderate opinions of most Americans. Her convention speech was peppered with sarcasm and disrespect- particularly her snide remark about community organizers, who work hard for little money and no glory! McCain is Bush 3, he is not a "change" candidate, but a "changed" candidate- no longer the so-called "maverick" he used to be. Sarah is a wolf in sheep's clothing. Voters beware!

[Rob in Los Angeles]

America can ill-afford another 4 years of Republican rule.

While the GOP have packaged Palin as an "Ambassador of Change," the reality is that she stands 100% with Bush-Cheney on the real issues that face Americans... economy, energy, environment, healthcare, employment and war. Another 4 years of the Bush-Cheney policies will destroy our country.

WHO IN THEIR RIGHT MIND WOULD VOTE FOR MORE OF THE SAME???

Please vote for REAL CHANGE. Vote for Barack Obama.

[SteveKelson]

Where is Hillary Clinton during this media fiasco?

In all reality, the bounce McCain is enjoying is doing serious damage.
If there was a time the party needed Hillary AND Bill Clinton...it was LAST WEEK
Where is Hillary Clinton during this media fiasco?
In all reality, the bounce McCain is enjoying is doing serious damage.
If there was a time the party needed Hillary AND Bill Clinton...it was 'YESTERDAY'

The media LOVES Palin. Jake Tapper on ABC Nightline
acts like a teenager in love. I'll bet Charlie Gibson throws her underhanded softballs in the first interview.

Where are all the Democratic leaders speaking out about this "overnight celebrity" who probably hasn't visited more than 15 states in the lower 48?

I wonder...has she even been to DisneyWorld?

Where is Hillary Clinton during this media fiasco?

In all reality, the bounce McCain is enjoying is doing serious damage.
If there was a time the party needed Hillary AND Bill Clinton...it was LAST WEEK
Where is Hillary Clinton during this media fiasco?
In all reality, the bounce McCain is enjoying is doing serious damage.
If there was a time the party needed Hillary AND Bill Clinton...it was 'YESTERDAY'

The media LOVES Palin. Jake Tapper on ABC Nighline acts like a teenager in love.
I'll bet Charlie Gibson throws her underhanded softballs in the first interview.

Where are all the Democratic leaders speaking out about this "overnight celebrity" who
probably hasn't visited ...I'm speculating...more than 20 states in the lower 48?
I wonder...has she even been to DisneyWorld?

I'd venture to say that I have been to Europe more times than she has!

The whole thing is absurd. But we do live in a 'Britney Spears' country.....

The pro life party....what a skewed, no thought needed, concept. What do the preachers like Rod Parsely,
Kenneth Hagin and the followers of some of these right wing kooks.....think of all the killing
and maiming of innocent civilians overseas? What' the cost in human lifes over there? 500,000?

To them, the world barely outside the walls of their limited thinking world...and their church.
Now if they just can have control of womens' bodies....life will be great for them!

Jesus freaks are RUINING our country....and I attend church !

[JIMMIE W BECK]

OBAMA NOW SAYS TAXES WILL NOT BE RAISED BECAUSE OF THE ECOMONY....
I SAY, OBAMA, YOU ARE A SLIP, SLID, FLIP, AND A FLOP..
THERE NOT A DAY GOES BY YOU DON'T CHANGE POSITION ON AN ISSUES. DON'T TELL ME YOU DID NOT KNOW REV WRIGHT WAS SAYING ALL THAT HATEFUL TRASH... 20 YEARS YUU HEARD THAT STUFF..AND DIDN'T KNOW?? COME ON.....
OBAMA, I CANNOT SEE ONE THING I CAN HANG MY HAT ON CONCERNING YOU....AND SAY..HE REALLY DID SOMETHING....NO, NOTHING, SINCERELY, AN UPSET CARRYING VOTER..JIM

[AspenFreePress]

Of course John McCain is leading in the polls. Another poll indicates nine out of ten Aspen Free Press readers fear obesity more than terrorism. One reason is that these readers know John McCain will be our next President and protect us.
Sterling Greenwood
Aspen Free Press

[soldier]

How is she going to keep us safe? I am a female, I am a soldier and I am a mother both naturally and I adopted 3...My children miss me dearly, one has turned another year old since I last saw them, I understand she's great mom, this is historic, they energized the base, she went to church, she loved her baby, she loves her family, her son is on his way.
BUT HOW DO I GET HOME TO DO THOSE THINGS!
DOES SHE UNDERSTAND? MCCAIN IS DEAD SET ON VICTORY, WHAT EVER THE HECK THAT MEAN? AND GO READ WASHINGTON POST TODAY, ON JUST WHAT EVERYONE SAYS THIS WAR IS ABOUT AND HOW IT HAPPEN TO BE.
WE HAVE BEEN HERE 6 YEAR ALMOST AND THESE PEOPLE STILL CAN'T DECIDED ON WHO WILL AND WILL NOT RUN THE COUNTRY, HOW MUCH OF THIER MONEY THEY WANT TO GIVE BACK TO THE USA, AND THE REGION IS IN A MESS NOT BECAUSE OF FIGHTING BECAUSE OF USA INVOLMENT, THEY HAVE A PLAN BUT IT DOES NOT INCLUDED THE USA THEY WANT TO BE LEFT ALONE, THEY WANT TO STAND NEXT TO OR WITH IRAN...THEY DO NOT AND NEVER HAVE BEEN FRIENDS WITH AL-QUADA, AND THEY FEEL WE BROUGHT THEM TO THEIR REGION, SO WE DID NOT I REPEAT DID NOT LEBERATE THEM THEY TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION...PERIOD

DOES SHE UNDERSTAND THAT ANOTHER WAR IS GOING ON OR SHOULD I SAY RIGHT NOW...
THAT WE HAVE TO FIGHT, THAT RIGHT LEAVE HERE AND GO THERE, OR LIKE SOME OF MY FRIENDS HAD TO DO GO TO GEORGIA, AND FIGHT FOR WHAT WAS LEFT OF THIER LIVES AND FAMILY MEMBERS, WHO JUST MIGHT BE THIER MOTHERS, DAUGHTER, CHILDREN

I AM NOT KNOCKING HER FOR HER ACCOMPISHMENTS I'M KNOCKING BOTH HER AND MCCAIN FOR THEIR JUDGEMENTS.WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH WITH I THINK I CAN I THINK I CAN

BESIDES HER 5 CHILDREN SHE WILL BE RSPONSIBLE FOR 300,000+ OTHER PEOPLE CHILDREN NOW ADD THIER FAMILY MEMBER AND TELL ME HOW YOU FIGURE, WE AND OUR FAMILIES FEEL RIGHT NOW.

IT NOT ABOUT REFORM, IT NOT ABOUT EARMARKS, IT'S NOT ABOUT WOMANS RIGHTS, IT NO LONGER ABOUT HISTORY, IT'S NOT ABOUT TAXES,IT'S NOT ABOUT WHO IS OR IS NOT YOUR PASTOR

IT ABOUT JUDGEMENT! I
T IS ABOUT IS LIES!
IT'S ABOUT LIVES!

WHY (WITH TEARS IN MY EYES) IS MSM DOING THIS TO US AGAIN, WHY???

IT ABOUT SOLDIERS AND AMERICANS HERE AND ABROAD FIGHTING FOR THE AMERICAN DREAM, (Americans fighting to get or keep a job, Americans fighting to stay in thier homes, Americans fighting to keep food on the table, I like so many of my comrades have lost our jobs, our homes being gone so long, SO WHAT ABOUT US???!! WHAT ABOUT YOU???!!) YOU KNOW THE AMERICAN DREAM THE ONE SHE AND MCCAIN ENJOY WITH THIER FAMILIES.

YOU ARE THE ONES WHO KNOW HER SO HELP ME UNDERSTAND HOW SHE HELPS US, BEING A HEART BEAT AWAY FROM THE PRESIDENCY???

[bmodia]

I predict the former beauty queen's appeal will fade when and if voters consider her lack of national & foreigh policy experience. To think she could be a heart beat away from the presidency is VERY FRIGHTENING, to put it mildly. Since McCain has hammered Obama on the experience issue, why is it no longer important? After all, he is a VERY OLD candidate and most of us see the VP as someone who could be in control some day. His age is still of great concern. Apparently Cheney sees the investigation of her alleged abuse of power as an asset and is supporting the ticket. Since he is even more unpopular than Bush, hopefully this will put the nail in the coffin for the Culture of Corruption Republicans.

[Jane]

If Palin were overweight, sparse-haired, and coarse-featured, with the exact same record of education, employment, and government experience, what would the "bounce" be? And what does this say about our national values?

[Nikhil]

This "bounce" in the polls goes to show you how stupid American voters are-- this woman might possibly be the anti-christ--

-She is against abortion, even in cases of rape and incest
-she is under investigation for abuse of power
-she was pro-bridge to nowhere before she opposed it
-she supports "abstinence only" sex ed, although her own daughter couldn't keep her legs together
-she is against equal pay for equal work
-her "experience" is that she was a mayor of a town of 9,000 people-- cmon--my old high school had 3,400 students alone!

McCain/Palin will be the COMPLETE undoing of all that is good about America-- Bush has ruined this country in 8 years, and now they are bringing in McCain/Palin to make sure we never recover!

LEARN TO THINK-- BEFORE IT'S ILLEGAL.