The Ticket's national electoral map; McCain slips in Florida

Here's the Ticket's weekly look at the national electoral map as compiled by Karl Rove & Co.

A week of the GOP convention and the Labor Day holiday made for just a few polls over the past week.

The only state to change classifications was Florida, where Sen. John McCain’s lead slipped within the margin of error to make the state again a toss-up.

Barack Obama continues to lead nationally with 260 electoral votes to McCain’s 194, and 84 as a toss-up. But note that the toss-up states are still in play for McCain — only in one of them (New Hampshire) does he trail within the margin of error.

Look for more dramatic changes over the next few weeks as state polls begin to take the race’s new dynamics into account. A chart showing each week's changes since March is published below the jump; click on the "read more" line.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between June 15 and July 15.

States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Please note: To account for the growing number of polls as we approach Election Day, Rove & Co. has shifted its methodology to consider only polls in a state within 14 days of the last poll, rather than the past 30 days.

Map and Chart material published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.

Comments

[Incorrect and misleading]

This article should be removed... it misuses and misrepresents data from the supposed source... I have notified the source of the graphics as to the misleading information included in this article...

Thanks,
Concerned Citizen

[Concerned Citizen]

This article is a misrepresentation of data collected and presented from Karl Rove's website... I have alerted the mainstream news outlets... Please correct the article or take it down... The misuse of copyrighted material is not good journalism...

This article was written today and includes old data from almost 2 weeks ago... This is not journalism...

Concerned Citizen

[susan]

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

Contact Governor Schwarzenegger now and urge him to sign the National Popular Vote bill recently passed by both houses in California.

Phone: 916-445-2841
E-mail at this link: http://www.govmail.ca.gov or http://gov.ca.gov/interact

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com