Barack Obama faces daunting hurdle, poll on race finds

When political scientists hash over the 2008 presidential election in the years to come, they will return -- time and again -- to race. Regardless of who wins, the results will be sifted, analyzed and sized up from every possible angle for evidence of the role racial attitudes did (or did not) play in the outcome.

A poll released over the weekend, which The Ticket mentioned briefly Sunday, gained much attention because it took a preemptive crack at probing this question. And here's the opening clause in the Associated Press story by Ron Fournier and Trevor Tompson: "Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close... ."

The article elaborated that according to a recent AP-Yahoo News poll, "More than a third of all white Democrats and independents -- voters Obama can't win the White House without -- agreed with at least....

...one negative adjective about blacks ... and they are significantly less likely to vote for Obama than those who don't have such views."

The adjectives included "violent," "complaining," "lazy" and "irresponsible."

"Statistical models derived from the poll suggest that Obama's support would be as much as 6 percentage points higher if there were no white racial prejudice," Fournier and Tompson write.

The survey also found that Obama should benefit from almost unanimous support from black voters.

The entire poll can be viewed here; the racially themed questions and findings are toward the end of the file.

A separate AP story explained the poll's distinctive methodology. For one, it was conducted online; studies have shown that people are more likely to report unpopular opinions when answering questions on a computer.

Obama addressed the poll's findings in an interview with John Harwood of CNBC and the New York Times.

"Look, if you're asking me are there some people who might not vote for me because of my race? Of course. Are there some who might vote for me because of my race? You bet," he said.

But he dismissed the notion that race would be a major factor in the election's outcome. "I think ultimately, though, the question's going to be decided by a guy or a woman who is working hard every day trying to save enough to send their kid to college, trying to pay the bills."

-- Kate Linthicum

Photo: AFP/Getty Images

Comments

[steve rodriguez]

Nobody plays the race card better than Mr. Obama himself!
I will not vote for him because I don't want to hear four years of Obama playing the race card!

[Let my people go!]

Martin Luther King had a dream!

The race card needs to come off the table. This is an election about ideas!

I am leaning for Obama. He may lead us toward the center where we need to be.

I just added 200 bops to McCain at http://www.bop-o-rama.com in all of 5 minutes.

I hope oil drops tomorrow.

[Jim Sorgi]

I think that the results of this poll have been misinterpreted a little. A question that asks respondents if they agree that an adjective describes something is a leading question. If asked whether black people can be described as violent it causes the respondent to look for examples in their mind of violence within black culture and they can probably think of a few examples. If you instead ask the question "what is your impression of black people" the same respondent very likely would not think of 'violent' as the best adjective. I will also point out that in the same poll of the same respondents when asked if the election were held today who would they vote for and based on their responses Obama would win by 4 to 5 points. There is certainly racial bias in this country but this poll doesn't really say what people are saying it does.

[Sandra S]

I am tired of seeing all of these articles about the 'race card' plastered up all over the place. You either vote for Obama or you don't. It's that simple. To subtly suggest that he cannot win because of his race is to be defeatist or trying to affect voters' in a very subtle subtrefuge way. I don't think the millions of people that got him where he is and the millions more that he has recruited to vote would bring up the race card. What I see and what I think his supporters see, is a man that we sorely need to bring Democratic principles into the White House and overturn the insanity of the last eight years. To imply otherwise is racist in itself. Nobody can predict this election, and I imagine we may all be surprised on November 5th. Now McCain on the other hand would not have had a chance without Palin, who has brought the gender card into the race. I a white woman will vote for a black man over a white woman for the idealogy I believe in and for no other. Thank you.

[RitaLouiseq]

I cannot for the life of me understand how, in this United States of America we can see either race or gender in anyone seeking political positions! What is wrong with America? I don't see a 'black' man running for president. I don't see a 'female' running for president. I see two human beings, with the good of the nation as a whole seeking the highest office of this country. I have not seen a whole lot of evidence that a white male has done all that well in the past eight years in office. Grow up, America, find some maturity and join the rest of the world and become blind to color or gender and find the human being behind all the bias.

[TJ]

I am going to be very frank here. I hope every eligible black voter votes. And I hope they vote Obama/Biden.

I am white, old, woman. I do not know how many presidential elections I have left in me. I do not want Obama because he would be the first black President. That is frosting on the cake. I want him because he is smart, educated, thoughtful, intelligent, steady, has a good platform and good policies, and, though I entertained voting Republican right after the primaries, I am reminded every day by this Republican ticket, their surrogates, their campaign, their Party, that there is no way; that it would be NOT in the country's best interests to put them back in that White House.

Obama gets better and better, more comfortable speaking in informal crowd settings, displaying his humor, managing the scurrolous ads with plain common sense and humor. I knew he was brilliant; but he can also make me laugh.

No one can compare his readiness to take this responsibility for governing the nation with either McCain or Palin. I do not think the Republicans really believe she is experienced and qualified to do this job; but, what else can they say?

I cannot believe that the American people will vote for this Republican ticket just to vote against Obama's race. I do not think the majority of us still think like that, not when our country has been left in such a mess by the Republicans and, make no mistake about it, McCain is demonstrating he really is a "maverick" only in his hypocrisy and Palin is a "reformer" in Alaska where politicians, including her, is taken to a higher level than usual.

[Bonnie]

I get aggravated that Obama doesn't play the race card. I think he has stayed above it. I wouldn't doubt that he tells the interviewers not to ask him. All people should select a candidate because of their views, their temperment, and decisions made in the past. Look at the issues side by side. I used to like McCain, but now he is a warmonger and he has sold out. The torture turnabout made me sick. One minute he writes the legislation, then he doesn't support, he let's Bush change it and then claims that he bucked Bush. What a spin master. I want to vote for someone SMARTER THAN ME not someone I'd like to have a drink with. I have plenty of friend to do that with.

[Aycee]

Obama has always tried to keep race out of this election. But, it's inevitable that some will make a big deal over the color of his skin. He's a well educated man, who rose from poverty to make something of himself. This is what we all strive for, to raise our stature in society and make our lives and the lives of our families better. No matter whether you are black, hispanic, white, asian, native american, or any other ethnicity, we all want the same thing. Let's rise above race, ethnicity, and prejudicial behavior. The eyes of the world are upon us, let's show them that we are a better nation than this. Obama has always been about inclusiveness, throughout the primaries and now in the Presidential election. As a hispanic, I'm voting for him because he will do the right thing for all Americans. I don't think I saw more than 12 people in the crowd of the Republican convention who were ethnic minority or black.

[raoul]

Some negative views on blacks is not always racism but views formed as a result of life experience and witness. For example, my wife and I are not racist but have a pretty negative opinion of black behavior. For example, parents of black students more often than not play the race card with school staff to get their way or to excuse neglectful parental behavior or black youth demean white students by spitting on them and thereby project animal like behavior in public without conscience. I can go on and on. Using the racist label to describe the behavior of white folk is a simplistic cop-out.

Respect and trust are earned and the black community has a very long way to go before that trust is more fully expressed via the voting behavior of whites.

[Obama is a fraud]

The person above is right - Obama plays the race card more than anyone.

When he realizes it will cost him, he dances away and tries desperately to act like race is a non-issue. His psycho, strident, hateful self-righteous wife can't wait to get into the White House to advance her white-hating pathology.

Obama and his handlers are conniving and underhanded, and anyone who thinks he will ride in on a white horse and work for the forces of good is deluded [unfortunately.]

Obama doesn't have a clue what he's doing and had to bring in Biden to run the show. It's the Dem version of Bush/Cheney. Problem is no one wanted Biden for President, just like Cheney.
---------------------------------------------

BTW,
As for blacks being lazy and irresponsible, ever tried dealing with the U.S. Post Office? Branches that have blacks are a disaster, mail is lost, workers are lazy and rude and aggressive and indifferent.

Branches that have Asians, whites, etc are more efficient and professional and courteous. The blacks at our p.o. actually sit and read magazines and eat and gossip while working at the window, and nastily act like customers are interrupting their good time. Blacks are racist because they consistently go out of their way to give whites a hard time, but not the blacks.

[alogicbit@hotmail.com]

"Nobody plays the race card better than Mr. Obama himself!
I will not vote for him because I don't want to hear four years of Obama playing the race card!"

I hope you're sterile or have a VERY hostile womb.

[steve rodriguez]

A vote for McCain is not a racist statement!

[steve rodriguez]

Someone says that Obama doesn't play the race card? that he's above all this? Give me a break!!! Have you been following this campaign?

[steve rodriguez]

Raoul I totally agree with you! If we do not like a black person, skin color has nothing to do with it! Content of character has everything to do with it! No matter what your race is!

[steve rodriguez]

Wasn't it Ludacris the rapper who said, "were gonna paint the White House black!?" Gee I though Obama was running to be the president of all Americans!

[jojo star]

if there was no racial prejuice by blacks how much lower would his numbers be ??

he would not have won the dem primaries if it wasn't for 90% of all blacks including oprah voting for him just because he is black.

prejudice goes both ways

[Maggie]

I will not vote for Obama because of his desire for redistribution of wealth. That is Socialism. We are not a Socialist country. Why should the money I have earned since I was 12 years old ultimately go (anymore than it already does via social programs) into the hands of people who have chosen the wrong path in life? Having a football team of kids for the money the government is willing to toss your way is just stupid. Those kids eat and demand IPods and the like. Obama clearly favors "giving" without earning and that just doesn't set right with me. And yes, silly, of course Obama plays the race card. A couple of weeks ago when he was blindsided by McCain selecting a woman as his running mate the ads started ....."Obama won't win because Americans are racist." Bull.... Oh yeah, and how about "I don't look like other people on the dollar bill"...and how about "I have a funny last name"... and how about "Oh did they tell you I'm black?" If you didn't hear the race card then you were not listening. The last thing we need in America right now is a President who divides. We have enough problems and Obama and his redistribution of wealth and social programs to continue to enable people to stay poor for profit is not the answer.

[Heather]

I strongly disagree that Obama plays the race card. I have followed this election very closely and Obama's comments are not racially motivated. They are intended to pronounce his diversity and commonality with the American People.

Palin must have learned her political strategies while fishing with her husband. She flip flops worse than a fish out of water. First, she supports the bridge.....and now she doesn't. Pick a side, any side! Did you happen to catch her interview with Gibson? Palin and Kerry should have ran together, both are great at deflecting a straight answer.

I am NOT worried about race or religious affiliations. I AM worried about what I am able to place on my table in front of my children.

The "trickle down" economics, well.....let's just say most on the bottom are experiencing a drought. Not everyone chose to be where they are currently.

Obama supports holding companies accountable for such misgivings, as abuse of funds and unfair business practices. I am held accountable for my actions, why shouldn't they enjoy these same privileges?

I understand why those who are high on the hog wouldn't want to wallow in the mud. Truth is, if the hogs didn't trample the pen, there wouldn't be any mud.

No one is going to agree with either candidate 100% of the time. Who will unite this great country again? Who will be optimistic and enthusiastic about the American People again? Who will take pride in the common worker as much as they do the millionaire entrepreneur?

Think long and hard before making your selection. Go to factscheck and do some research. I have looked at the actual bills all the candidates have supported, I encourage you to do the same. I want someone who is forthcoming and isn't afraid to tackle their own shortcomings.

[BillForObama]

@Maggie

What do you call the bail out of our financial institutions? The CEOs and the 1% of the wealthy got to be wealth because of how one-sided America is.

Bailing them out because they have failed is just welfare for the rich. The CEOs and the !% are on the dole.

[Andrew]

It's no coincidence that mainstream media is bombarding the public with the race card just as early voting begins. It's a cheap ploy to steer the election to McCain. Since the majority of voters see mainstream media for the political puppet it has become, I doubt this race card tactic will have much influence on voters.

Besides, MSM already saturated us with the race card earlier on and most of us have become desensitized.

Nice try MSM, but this year your influence is meager and will continue to weaken over time. Your heyday is over. Long live alternate news!

[steve rodriguez]

Right on Maggie! You're right Obama is a socialist! You work hard for your money you should be able to keep it! Now I hear that Obama will introduce a world poverty plan, something like a welfare program for the whole world!

[Sandra S]

I get very annoyed when the infantile neocons come out after they see thoughtful comments being posted. Now, I can understand if someone posts reasonble thoughts for their stance on either candidate, but when I start seeing the one line insults and hate speech, coming right after a series of thoughtful comments, I know immediately that some little Repub thug is trolling the blogs to throw disarray, take the focus off intelligent conversation. I'm still not sure if they're members of Free Republic, a right wing extremist group who bring cans of food and their guns into the woods waiting for the End, or paid operatives of McCain's campaign, but regardless, please be aware that they exist and do not represent thoughtful supporters of either side.

[An]

Barack Obama and the democrats are the ones using race as a crutch in this election. If you focus in you will see the media and blacks too are playing the race card. How else would race be talked about so much ? Stop telling americans we can't think for ourselves. People are not racist if they think, Obama has no experience, no record of achievements, spent 20 years with anti-american racist Rev.Wright, has a long association with radical william Ayers, he's arrogant, tells many lies, has ties to Rezko and has a very angry at america wife, Michelle Obama. These are some of the things I see wrong with Obama. If he was White, he would not be aloud to run for president because of this baggage. John McCain's record and plans proves to me that he is ready to work hard for this country. Barack Obama will work hard for only himself to get power for himself.

[steve rodriguez]

Hey Maggie, Do you think the rich just have stuff handed to them all the time, or that their wealth came through hard work? The black and poor have more stuff handed to them than do the rich! You sound like a victim Maggie!

[Affirmative Action]

I am Black and I don't want Barack Obama and the democrats holding me down by telling me I can't make it in life without the government giving me a hand-out. I have always been a democrat but I'm not anymore. Democrats do not help the poor people. They brainwash them to think you can't be totally responsible for yourself and make you think you can't make it without government help. To me, independence is a great feeling of freedom. I try to be responsible for myself because I should be.