2 new polls: Obama-McCain tied, but McCain-Palin surge among women

Suddenly, it's Poll City around here today.

As The Ticket reported earlier, the new Gallup/USA Today poll found a significant post-convention bounce for the John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket, a turnaround of 8 points to give the M-S ticket a 4-point lead over Barack Obama-Joe Biden.

But now this afternoon come two more national polls essentially confirming the same trends with some significant subterranean changes:

-- the ABC News/Washington Post national poll of registered voters, which shows Obama's 6-point August lead has evaporated to produce a 47-46 Obama-McCain statistical tie,

-- and a CNN/Opinion Research poll, which shows the race still tied at 48% apiece but McCain making significant gains in how voters view his handling of the economy, Iraq and healthcare.

The most surprising results -- and surely the most disturbing for the freshman Illinois senator's camp -- are the immense gains McCain has made among white women following the Republican National Convention and the well-received prime-time speech by Palin.

In barely three weeks since before the Democratic convention last month, that crucial group of female voters has moved from 50-42 in Obama's favor to 53-41 for McCain now.

That's a huge 20-point shift in almost as many days, no doubt attributed in large part to the addition of a woman to the Republican ticket, Alaskan Gov. Palin, for the first time in the party's 164-year history.

The same poll also revealed a large shift toward McCain in Midwest battleground states from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge. The same numbers also indicated Obama making little or no progress in the areas of having sufficient experience and wooing to his side former supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Obama still leads slightly among those who think he represents their values (48-44) and those who think he will bring change (51-39).

But McCain-Palin have pulled ahead among independents (50-43), among married women (48-44) and especially among white Catholics (59-36).

-- Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[gugu]

Wow
Women shifted from an eight-point pre-convention edge for Obama to a 12-point McCain advantage now.

[jason]

Senators should never run for offce. All these senators running for president had a approval rating of around 40% last year and now the american people are going to put one in office. Wheres the governors ? American people must be lacking half a brain. Concern american from Texas

[Scout]

BJ,

Though John McCain might be a moderate, Sarah Palin is not!!!

Though John McCain is a moderate who is pro-choice and supports embryonic stem cell research he picks a women for V.P. whose views put us back into the 1800's.

Sarah Palin is a right wing extremist. She wants Creationism (the belief that all humanity, life, the Earth and the universe as a whole was created by a supreme being) taught in all U.S. schools.

Ms. Palin is says that she's strongly "Pro-life" and wants to overturn "Roe Vs. Wade" outlawing abortions even in the case of rape or incest. Despite claiming to be a caring person who cares so much about other women's unborn fetuses, she legalized the incredibly cruel practice of aerial hunting of wolves and moose which most Alaskans didn't agree with because of the inhumane and cruel aspects of this form of hunting. Ms. Palin is also fighting to take the Beluga Whale and the Polar Bear off the endangered species list so that they can be hunted and won't get in the way of any extra arctic oil drilling. She's legalized the hunting of grizzly bears in Alaska and even supports the groups that club baby seals to death for fur. All this cruelty to arctic animals who have a hard enough time just surviving in the harsh frigid regions of Alaska.

Ms. Palin also opposes embryonic stem cell research (which uses 6-10 cell embryos that are about to be discarded after Invitro-fertilization cycles) which holds extreme promise for most aging and fatal diseases such as Alzheimes, cancer and Parkinson's.

I won’t even go into all the controversies such as the Troopergate incident and the Bridge to Nowhere lies and cover-up.

John McCain is a 72 year old man who's had four bouts of Melanoma in the very recent past. If McCain actually wins this election there's a good chance that American citizens will very soon have Sarah Palin as their President! What a disastor that will be! We can say goodbye to the 21th century and our wildlife, environment, medical technology and so much more.

I'm a young woman and there is no way that I'm voting for Sarah Palin. I want to have a good future.

BJ,
Honestly, I can't believe that a Hillary Clinton supporter would support Ms. Palin. You're probably a Republican in disguise.

[Nicole C.]

Listen and think. Go for McCain ticket. and of course Hillary for 1012!

[Mike]

Only people bitter about 2000 could hate the McCain ticket.

When will the dems wake up and foot a real team that's not based on their rhetorical view through extreme liberal glasses?

You can try to blame everything on bush, but the fact remains:

1) The Iraq war is 17% of the deficit and the deficit is not hurting the economy.

2) The blame for the housing bust rests with stupid americans who paid more for houses than they could afford. Too bad but the economic fallout from that is not Bush's fault.

3) Losing jobs to Asia is not Bush's fault either. You want cheap goods, you buy cheap foreign made goods, then US jobs are going to leave. Jobs have been leaving for decades.

4) High oil prices are not a result of the Iraq war. Iraq is producing more oil now than before the war. Limited supply and the rise of chinese and indian demand are driving it....do some googling.

The dems are way over correcting with the ticket they put up. Obama is the most liberal senator and Biden is 3rd. Sorry, but americans don't want an opportunist playing to their unfounded social fears and introducing more socialist entitelments.

Also, the comments about Palin being "against womens rights" because she is against abortion only makes sense if you see abortion as a womens rights issue. For millions it's a right to life issue...one in which obama wouldn't even vote to require assistance be given to babies who survive abortion. Pathetic.

[S]

Obama has got to win this election or we are all in
big trouble.
It is clear that Palin only thinks of herself,
she lies, and she doesn't know a thing she is doing.
McCain doesn't know anything either.
They just lie and lie and the Republicans believe
all their big lies.
I will be ashamed if McCain and Palin are the ones
who are representing America.
We will be the laughing stock of the world with
these two in the White House.
Ugly inside, Ugly on the outside.
They have no class whatsover.
Take a real good look at both of them and then honestly
tell yourself this is what you want America to be
about. These two are so shameful!!!

[Wally]

Palin, the hope of America; she will do a fantastic job leading McCain!

[NP]

it is now obvious that Most American women do not care or want womens rights. They do not care for equal pay. They do not care if Roe vs wade is turned. Theey do not care if creationism is tought in schhol to their children. They do not care if stay in Iraq for long or bomb Iran. They do not care about universal health care. All they care is not to elect a white womaan's son from a black father. or a woman like them. The women of American have spoken. I have two girls and I feel sorry for them.

I am now resigned for McCain to be predient. Under Busth my savings already down by half and assets are worthless.Unde rMacCain, the social security will be privatised and invested infalling stock marke. Only option left for me is to go to Mexico or some other Latin American country with low cost of living and free health care and spend what ever savings remain.

Enjoy my fellow americans you deserve it. You will have a women president within two to three years.

[ted_hu@hotmail.com]

don't lose your underwear. relax. chill. step back. two more months. haven't even seen the bimbo answer any questions on her own yet. let's see if she meets the hype of her 1 year 9 mo "executive" and "national security" experience "leading the alaskan national guard".

yeah idiots outnumber brains in this country now but then we've not educated americans for a decade plus now so this was bound to happen. if we falter as nation, the chinese will eat us for lunch. and we'll be paying them back and begging them for more imports like fat lazy debt addicts we are.

eod until more of us live in poverty and figure out politics is actually not a reality tv show, then things will be more serious, including media coverage of elections which have turned patently tabloid.

enough already

[George Hanshaw]

Just a couple of comments:
1. The Democratic nomination process -- IT'S BROKEN. How the hell do you get a FRESHMAN senator with no significant legislation to his credit, a trivial amount of time in the Illinois (part-time) state legislature (and that as part of the Daley machine) a person universally acknowledged to be the most liberal Senator in the Senate, as presidential nominee? Until the dem party does something about their practice of giving the most liberal venues first primaries, they'll be doomed to nominating guys totally out of touch with the US which -- in case you haven't noticed, is NOT a LIBERAL nation.
2. Where the hell was Howard Dean during the sexist attacks on Hillary? Did you really expect that after Obama's people ran around with T-shirts that said, "Bro's not Hoe's," the Hillary supporters would just kiss and make up when the primaries were over?
3. The dem party has been playing identity politics against the Republicans for a long time. This time they played it against themselves, with divisive results -- and once McCain gave the disaffected feminists the smallest chance to vote for him, many of them took it.
4. Whose idiot idea was it to have Obama go toe to toe defending himself against Palin's assertion that she was more qualified than him? It only made him look small. And when he used the fact that the budget of his campaign was more than the budget of Wasilla, it made him look tiny.
http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/02/whose-budget-is-bigger/?ref=opinion

The Alaska state budget is $11.2 Billion annually, There are 15,000 state employees and another 8000 or so in the Alaska National Guard who call the woman their commander-in-chief. If you are going to suffer in the comparison, you don't try to refute it, you ignore it!

Best option now? Elect McCain, hope he's too old to run again in 2012, and then run Hillary.

[JKay2]

Ok - the 20 point shift in women is a worry - I guess picking a woman as VP has had a large impact on that basis alone. They are still in bounce mode, riding the momentum and it is hard to know how it will settle. Obama needs to create new political time now and I am sure they are working on something.

Looking from the outside in I know that a McCain/Palin pick will be as much as a disaster as re-electing Bush in 2004 and there will be ramifications throughout the world. It is going to be hard to not feel rejected, like America has chosen to go insular, that they didn't re-elect Bush due to fear but due to nature. What can you do with that except turn around and walk away?

[warren lee]

I’m mad at the Republican Party. Corruption, greed, government spending that is totally out of control, rapid inflation, the war in Iraq, earmarking, jobs disappearing overseas, an aloof President, it just seems like the system is broken and the country is going to hell. And it’s not just the Republicans, the do nothing Democratically controlled Congress has the lowest approval rating in US history.

What does excite me, for the first time in American history, a black man has a real chance at becoming our President. Not just any black man but one who wins you over when you listen to him talk. He’s got charisma. He talks up a good plan, even if he doesn’t always have the facts right. And he promises to bring change to Washington. He sounds like he MAY make a damn good President.

But I struggle with his supporters and some of the people he associates with. When I listen to his supporters, I don’t associate with them. They don’t resonate with me and I can’t identify with them. Some are so anti-American that it makes my stomach turn. Some just want handouts. Some just seem stupid and uninformed. Is this the type of America that he represents? It makes me afraid to support him.

I haven’t been that strong on John McCain either. I like the fact he’s a maverick within his party and that he’s never resorted to earmarking a bill for some special interest purpose, unlike Obama. And I think the Iraq war would be long over had he been President, although I don’t agree with the war in the first place. But his age and position on some major issues have me concerned.

The decision changer for me was when McCain selected Sarah Palin for his Vice Presidential running mate. Not some good ol’ boy from Washington, but someone who would bring change to Washington. Here is a person I can identify with and really respect. She’s one of us, not born into royalty or wealth. She’s cleaned up corruption within her own party in Alaska, got rid of the holier than tho perks from her office, reduced taxes, addressed the energy crisis correctly, in fact, just what we need for change in Washington. I wish she was the Presidential candidate.

I know, she’s not the Presidential candidate. But the fact that she would be Vice President makes me feel very confident that change is on McCain’s agenda. And judging from what she has accomplished in Alaska, it’s change for the better. With Obama, I’m not sure the change he would bring to Washington, if any, is for the better, especially after reviewing his record. So, that’s why I’m supporting McCain.

Note: Obama has personally earmarked Senate bills at the rate of a million dollars a day since he’s been in the Senate. McCain, not one dollar. I’d say Obama is a thief.
Two of my favorite (just kidding) people, Bill Ayers and Rev. Wright, are supporters and friends of Obama.

[derek]

I would say, I am moderate conservative. I was not excited by the vote for Obama. I would say he, Obama, most stands for justice. I want more though, I want us to profit. Their is not a stand for an ideal or sacrafice for others.

Yes gov't needs to enable the people to take care of the less fortunate, but the act of giving has a different feel when one is involved in the day to day caring for others. Giving of one-self can not be replaced with dollars. So the gov't should enable and ask of it citizens to do the hard work of caring of the less fortunate, the debilitated, mil vets, aging grand-parents. I don't believe this is what Obama is asking, when he talks about taxing the rich to give to the poor.

McCain has the qualities of a strong leader. He shows the quality that we most need right now. That is, selfless service for the betterment of the people. His spirit of service is evident in how he talks and how he leads.

We all know that taxing and spending is not a solution. The answer to America's problems are Americans.

[Rob-of-Indy]

Wow! Not a whole lot of indecisiveness in LA. From these comments it sounds pretty black and white out there. No pun intended.

About the aerial hunting...it sounds pretty cruel to me, too, but I don't have wolves or grizzlies in my backyard. I concede that my outlook may be different if my children or pets were in danger because of these critters. Suburban armchair environmentalists might not see it that way.

And just because she's a social conservative doesn't mean she'll be able to force her beliefs on the American public. JFK was a Catholic. Was he able to enact a Catholic agenda? Nixon was a Quaker. Did we have an explosion of Quaker centric legislation?

Just because Gov Palin is not middle of the road is no reason to run around waving our arms in the air, much like Chicken Little, screaming "The world is coming to an end!!!"

What are her positions on NATO? Russia/Georgia? Term limits? Social Security? (Personally, I think Social Security has got to go. Let's not wait until it's completely broke.) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? Defense spending?

Instead of spending time debating Roe vs. Wade, which she'll have almost no power over, let's find out how she stands on things she will have power over.

I think she's gotten more voters interested again. And that's good.

[theo]

my wife and i make 260k a year. i work in computer software in redmond wa. i've an economics degree and have broken down the plan in detail. you are wrong, and are making up the numbers.

here are the facts that folks can see for themselves that you can see the entire schedule and compare yourself. it is done by the respected bi-partisan tax policy center. i've included original source links below.

the majority of 95% of americans are getting up to 3 times the tax breaks with obama's plan versus mccains. wrt your critique, at the top 5 of income earners which is at $226,918, the tax rate goes up 0.3% (yes point 4 percent). the top 1% get taxed at 6.4%. if you make $603,402 than you qualify but be clear you are still paying at lower rate than what was paid under clinton.

we have a 4 trillion debt right now. when w has borrowed from china to give the top 5 folks like me and folks way richer than me (understand that mccain gives 25% of his tax cuts to folks who are the top 0.1% income earners, which means you earn more than $2.8 million), i didn't spend it. it's obvious to rich folks which doesn't get said because most want to keep it a secret - rich people get rich by saving and investing, not saving. doh right. obvious when you say it. but republican spin reverses reality to wool everybody from that fact. and we invest it overseas to emerging markets like china for higher returns.

which means tax cuts to the top 5% actually leave the u.s. to back to china for higher returns which the government paid interest to borrow the tax cut monies in the first place. perverted ain't it. rich folks like me aren't asking for tax cuts. we don't want it nor need it. regular folks folks do and would actually spend it mccain just leaves out - thus the oft cited and true stat that he just leaves 101 million people out. pathetic.

now most folks don't make 200 or 260k much less $2.8 million. if not, what i just said should have pissed you off. unless you worked too hard and are too tired to care. or have low self estemm and just want rich ppl to deal with the money for you because trump brainwashed you already in the 1st season of you're fired.

in all deadly seriousness, here's the bottom line for the middle class - what the economists call the "middle quintile", families making $66,354. obama boosts your income by 2.6% and cuts your taxes to 14.7%. you'd get a $1,118 tax refund. mccain gives you a pittance $282, an extra *0.6%* more, leaving your tax rate at 16.7%. that's what obama means when he says republicans are lying to you, rednecks. he's making you root for the rich folk, saying he'll give you 'tax cuts', amount unspecified. in reality, he's giving yall the shaft.

enough already.

updated tax analysis @ http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/presidential_candidates.cfm
obama's tax proposal @ http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/numbers/displayatab.cfm?Docid=1959&DocTypeID=2
mccain's tax proposals @ http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/numbers/displayatab.cfm?Docid=1898&DocTypeID=2

[vote4thebest]

Experience and the willingness to fight have been the two issues that people are for Hillary. Palin now gives the people the same thing.

Palin launched her political career by taking down people from her own corrupted party while Obama launched his career at Bill Ayers, a terrorist, and makes friends with extremist such as Rev Wright. Duh! Palin wins hand down over Obama!

It also shows that Obama's first big decision, picking a VP, is a total failure. If he had picked Clinton then Palin may not even be picked, or at least, McCain can't claim 'historic move'!

[RST]

Obama heading for a landslide defeat.
This is good for USA.
Based on his treatment of Clinton requiring her to campaign after denying her of VP ticket.
A wote for Obama's "change" now means a vote for
"more Women work for less women pay".
Just ask Clinton.

Actions speaks louder than words

McCain-Palin for genuine equality.

[Bible lover]

Honestly Sarah Palin and Mc "wheel-chair" Cain don't have the brains or talent to do a damn thing. Just because this OLD FART was a POW does it mean he got the skills to be Pres. Palin qualify to be a fresh stripper rather than a VEEP. I know that republicans are dumb as hell starting from Reagan. Didn't realize that they would reach a point of no return dumbness. America is ready only for dumb presidents after the new millennium. They are not ready for OBAMA. No administration can save the ECONOMY. God bless Obama's thoughts and intentions. No one can improve the economy because it is sinking like TITANIC

[EF]

Warren Lee -

You seem thoughtful and smart, and all I would ask before casting your vote is that you get the facts on McCain and Palin!

John McCain WAS a maverick within his party... BEFORE he started this second run for president. A short list of things he has fallen into Republican party line on:
- torture
- wiretaps
- roe v. wade
- repealing tax cuts for the rich
- immigration reform
- the list goes on. Yes, he does not use earmarks, whereas Obama uses earmarks for public institutions only (schools, hospitals, etc) - and Obama is in the bottom 25% of senators who use earmarks.

The war may NEVER end if McCain is president - he threw his full support behind this trillion dollar war, and continues to believe we should stay in Iraq. "Maybe for a hundred years," in his own words!

Sarah Palin may be "one of us," but she hasn't cleaned up any corruption in Alaska. What she did when she got rid of the "old boys network" was create a new "old boys network" by hiring inexperienced and obscure people, creating a staff totally dependent on her for their jobs and eternally grateful and fiercely loyal - loyal to the point of abusing their power to further her personal agenda. She reduced taxes, but ONLY for businesses, increasing tax burden on residents. She didn't make ANY financial investments in addressing the energy crisis, despite (or perhaps BECAUSE of) Alaska's $50million oil revenue.

Change can't be on John McCain's agenda - he voted with Bush 90% of the time in 2007. And he chose a running mate whose policies and personality prove she's George Bush in lipstick! That is not the change we need - god, it's not even change at all! These guys are going to make the last 8 years look like a kindergartener's tea party!!!

Please, people, please get the facts and vote for the ticket that will start to get us out of this mess!

[DB]

I'm not worried about McCain and Palin winning. These polls are not always the best indicators of what is happening, will happen. It is not uncommon, from what I have read, for folks to get a bounce after their conventions. The comedians will be having a field day with Palin and more and more folks will soon see that the idea of her being qualified for VP is completely idiotic, a joke. Just chill folks for a few and Obama will start looking like the clear winner again. I don't know, but from what I have read, there are record numbers of new voters who have signed up to vote for the Democrats, Obama, and I am wondering if these polls are really reflecting the opinions of these folks-- students, Latinos. I doubt tons of pro-choice women who were Hillary supporters are really interested in voting for a woman who does not support a woman's right to choose. I'm just going to wait a few days or week and think that the polls will come back around for Obama, or I am not going to worry about what the polls say as I am not sure that they are accurate at all perhaps.

[Brian]

Finally! One of "us" in the White House and not someone who is far removed from the everyday plight of everyday people.

How refreshing.

McCain/Palin 2008!

[Austin]

This just shows why women's suffrage needs to be revisited. Obama's politics are so much more in line with Hillary Clinton's however Sarah Palin has a vagina. Is this really the sole criteria on which women cast their vote? Genital similarity? Palin is pro-gun, anti-abortion, pro-creationism in schools, pro-war, pro-everything that women typically vote against. That said, you throw a good looking well dressed "hockey mom" in front of them and all of a sudden their political beliefs go out the window. Susan B. Anthony is turning in her grave.

[roland thick]

I dont see why white women in America are trying to compare themselves to Palin. If YOUR daughter was pregnant in high school, she would still be labeled a whore! Remember, SHE is a Politician AND an actress. All of America will not be judged as "lightly" as Palin has been. When her glamour wears off, and more people die in Iraq, gas prices go to $6.00/gal., Milk $6.00/gal.YOUR kid gets pregnant at 16, you lose your job and you cant afford to go to the dr., Palin wont be your hero anymore.REMEMBER: The Republicans got us in the financial state we are in today! How many people do you know who have lost theyre homes? Dont let superstardom, clever speeches, and fancy magazine covers influence your decision about government! Sound familiar? When the smoke clears, McCain and Palin are still Republicans. Republicans just do not deserve another 4 years in office, period. I wish there was a law against any Political Party running for President after ruining the economy!

[disappointed]

I am very disappointed with the Obama campaign. They should NOT be surprised by the recent polls. I can now understand why people labled his campaign as arrogant. He was unwilling and insensitive to not only the woman voters but all who supported Hillary Clinton.

I was never a Hillary Clinton supporter but given her tremendous support why would a savvy skilled leader ever ignore and belittle such support. Could it be that woman may just finally decide that the Democrats need to be sent a BIG LOUD MESSAGE ----- they were unable or unwilling to listen before ---- but maybe, just maybe they will start to listen now.

The woman vote matters and we are sick and tired of the Democratic party patting us on the head and telling us you are going to take care of us. Wake up before it is too late. And please quit blaming Hillary or telling us that it is her job to get woman back on board. I want to hear from Obama why he deserves my vote ---- why do you think so little of women that you could not give serious consideration to woman running mate?

[R Smith]

People are not saying they disagree with Obama's views..... They are saying he scares me to death!