Top of the Ticket

Political commentary from Andrew Malcolm

« Previous Post | Top of the Ticket Home | Next Post »

2 new polls: Obama-McCain tied, but McCain-Palin surge among women

Suddenly, it's Poll City around here today.

As The Ticket reported earlier, the new Gallup/USA Today poll found a significant post-convention bounce for the John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket, a turnaround of 8 points to give the M-S ticket a 4-point lead over Barack Obama-Joe Biden.

A new political button for the Republican presidential ticket of Senator John McCain of Arizona and Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska

But now this afternoon come two more national polls essentially confirming the same trends with some significant subterranean changes:

-- the ABC News/Washington Post national poll of registered voters, which shows Obama's 6-point August lead has evaporated to produce a 47-46 Obama-McCain statistical tie,

-- and a CNN/Opinion Research poll, which shows the race still tied at 48% apiece but McCain making significant gains in how voters view his handling of the economy, Iraq and healthcare.

The most surprising results -- and surely the most disturbing for the freshman Illinois senator's camp -- are the immense gains McCain has made among white women following the Republican National Convention and the well-received prime-time speech by Palin.

In barely three weeks since before the Democratic convention last month, that crucial group of female voters has moved from 50-42 in Obama's favor to 53-41 for McCain now.

That's a huge 20-point shift in almost as many days, no doubt attributed in large part to the addition of a woman to the Republican ticket, Alaskan Gov. Palin, for the first time in the party's 164-year history.

The same poll also revealed a large shift toward McCain in Midwest battleground states from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge. The same numbers also indicated Obama making little or no progress in the areas of having sufficient experience and wooing to his side former supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Obama still leads slightly among those who think he represents their values (48-44) and those who think he will bring change (51-39).

But McCain-Palin have pulled ahead among independents (50-43), among married women (48-44) and especially among white Catholics (59-36).

-- Andrew Malcolm

Comments () | Archives (72)

The comments to this entry are closed.

This is pathetic. We could learn that Sarah Palin has had two abortions, and any other negative thing you can dream up about her, and Republicans would still say what a great pick she is and how "experienced" she is. They want to remain in power and they don't much care what they have to do or who they have to use to get there. Those women who have taken to Palin solely because she is a woman are simply fickle. Once again, with a little help from racists, we face the prospect of the Republican party making a mockery of our constitution and everything it stands for. If they win, the U.S. will continue its decline as a world leader. If we're foolish enough to fall for the Republicans' cynical strategy, that's exactly what we will deserve. Don't blame me, I am voting for Obama. (Just like you can't blame me; I voted for Kerry and Gore. For all thos who don't fall for the dirtball Republicans' tricks, I am happy to say WE TOLD YOU SO!)

You have no idea what's really going on with women. McCain and Palin are in for a big surprise on election day. Do you and the pollsters really think we're that stupid? Sure, there are women in droves at the rallies - bored women who want to spark up their lives by seeing a celebrity - in person! There are hundreds of thousands, millions of us who don't need that spark, who are intelligent, who want real change for our families and in our lives, who want no more war-mongering, who want peace and good lives for our children and grandchildren. Women who want integrity. Remember the silent majority? This is the new silent majority. You won't be counting us in the polls or putting us in the media, but we'll be voting. We'll definitely be voting.

Gotta love how it all comes down to the same thing for Obama supporters...the American people are stupid. Yes, we should all bow down and accept that you smug liberals know what's best, not just for you, but also for us. Expect to see this theme continue as the only possible explanation they have for why Obama might lose.

The contempts they have for middle America and the white working class is laughable.

As a British citizen I hope you will allow me to make the following comments. McCain was always going to win the election so long as he did not do something incredibly foolish - such as picking Mitt Romney as his running mate . That would have been a disaster .The wily fox has instead opted for a hard working true conservative Christian woman . Small town middle America is the true America - not the east and west coasts . Just for your encouragement in my judgement Sarah Palin has had more executive experience than Margaret Thatcher before she became Prime Minister - and judging by her fantastic speech she could well be another Margaret Thatcher

Or maybe Palin has brought to light the fact that people are sick of failed democratic energy policy...

We use about 22 million barrels of oil a day, yet only produce 6 million. Less than half of the oil used goes to transportation. Approximately 12 million barrels of oil are used in industry - EACH DAY. Even under Obama's grand (yet impossible, if you do the math) plan to make every car in the USA gas free in 10 years, we would still need to import 50% of oil used.

The only reason we have $4/gallon gas prices now ($4.60 if you're lucky enough to live in the grand city of Chicago - Obama's home town that is about to be taxed out of existence) is because the democrats forced us to stop drilling in the first place WITHOUT a better alternative. My mom always said don't quit your job without another waiting in the wings. The same logic holds - don't stop creating energy that the economic fabric of our society depends on unless you have a better alternative. But alas, the democrats, with no alternate plan, pushed to stop drilling (And don't get me started on Adolf Pelosi's current stance to prevent a VOTE in a DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS because she's scared she might lose - we allowed Washington to be hijacked by a dictator).

The democratic policy hasn't stopped oil usage, it merely shows the elitist attitude they possess: "Our country is too pretty to drill, but since we still need the oil we'll just pay others to damage their country instead - After all, transporting millions of barrels of oil from the middle east across the Atlantic isn't that dangerous for the environment." Their logic and intelligence astound me.... And now we send $700 billion a year OUT of our economy to rogue foreign nations. And the current economic crisis is Bush's fault? Haha...

Wow, that is hilarious. I am of two minds about this election. Personally, I stand to gain with McCain in the White House. He'll pretty much veto everything, and that will mean low capital gains and when I cash in my options, it will mean I'll keep a lot more money. However, I'll have to endure watching draconian rulings from a Supreme Court for a generation or so. If it gets too bad here, I can always work overseas.

Nevertheless, I've got to mock the Hillary supporters. Seriously, is the only qualification you care about on the ticket is one or more vaginas? Because that's the only thing that Palin and Clinton have in common. Is that not the very definition of sexism? I was raised in a deeply feminist household so I always had this impression that women were, if not smarter than men, much wiser. Apparently that was a myth.

Hillary is more at risk here than she seems to realize. If "the sisterhood of the traveling pantsuit" condemns us to 4 more years of lying incompetent administration and the continuing decline of America, Hillary becomes public enemy number 1 for all other Democrats. I voted for her, sent her money, and supported her to the end. But if she keeps playing patty-cake with a fascist theocrat like Palin, I will support anyone who opposes her from then on.

** Obama still projected winner **

Stop hyperventilating. GOP bounce is not a trend line. The media mavins simply do not understand numbers. Ignorance is no excuse.

Polls are snapshots. Electoral College vote projections based on multiple polls, polling history, and assumptions (like decay of post-convention bounce) still lead to at least a +23 EC vote for Obama if election were held today (9/9/2008):

Go to
9/9/2008 10am: 293 electoral votes for Obama

And, go to
9/9/2008 12pm : 300 electoral votes for Obama.

Post-convention bounce will die away. Palin has yet to face any press questioning -- GOP is trying to fill her brain with points to parrot before then.


What Mimi said at "September 08, 2008 at 08:54 PM" just makes me want to vote for McCain/Palin even more. Mud and sludge from you about particulars on Palin, when you overlook how slimey Obama's past is.

It is articles like this that are planted to discourage Democratic voters. As far as those who say, I am now voting for McCain - I don't believe it. If they are voting for McCain, they would be voting for him anyway. Obama will win if all Democrats vote - we have the numbers, including the huge number of new, young voters recruited for Obama that aren't even being taken into consideration in the polls. But who am I to say: we shall find out on November 5th :-)

I don't care whether Pilan is a woman, man, transexual, or hermaphrodite, with or without illegitimate children, what she represents is the ultimate hypocracy of the Republican Party and she and McCain are their standard bearers.

In Dante's Inferno, hypocrits are in the Eighth Circle, Bulgia 6 of the Inferno, 2nd closest to the bottom..

This is a description of Bolgia 6: "The bridge over this bolgia is broken: the poets climb down into it and find the Hypocrites listlessly walking along wearing gold-gilded lead cloaks. Dante speaks with Catalano and Loderingo, members of the Jovial Friars. It is also ironic in this canto that whilst in the company of hypocrites, the poets also discover that the guardians of the fraudulent (the malebranche) are hypocrites themselves, as they find that they have lied to them, giving false directions, when at the same time they are punishing liars for similar sins. (Canto XXIII)"

I have been following the on-going election drama of the God anointed United State of America. I am amazed at the quick turn of events after the anouncement of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate - most especially women on their heels to meet McCain's presidential train. I have not abandoned my thought that America is the most wonderful of all countries because it will hardly happen in Africa for an "Obama" to defeat "Hillary". It will still hardly happen seeing Hillary supporting Obama. But now that women are shifting grounds over-night, placing gender above ideology and principles, I say God bless America.

What really gets me is McCain and Palin claim to be
religious. What kind of religion tell s you to Lie, Cheat,
Kill for a Lie, cuss, try to get someone fired,
judge others, I could go on and on. Just like the Bush's
sit in a pew and do what they have done to America
and other countries in eight years.
Oh, yes, this is a Christain. NO Way NO How!!!!
They worship Satan, so be careful who you vote
for on election day. I get sick and tired of their
right wing conservative crap they spill out of their
mouths and call it Christianity.
It is not the way I read the Bible at ALL!!
I get really tired of their way of thinking and judging
everyone and everything.
Christian These Republicans don't know what the
word means.
Who is for them had better sit down and read the
Bible very very slowly and take in what he says.
These two do not come anywhere close to what
God teaches.
Why don't all the right wing conseratives sit down and
relax and Jesus will come in his own time you don't
need to rush him here by destroying everything and
everyone on the earth.
I'm voting for Obama the one with the BRAINS!!!!!!!!

All I have to say is what is going on.
Our military is in a war that should have never started.
Bin Laden is still free after all these years, and growing.
What is going on!!!!!!!!!!!
People say they are going to vote for McCain.
Sell America to the highest bidder!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
He will disgrace us further, Bush has almost
destroyed us lets let McCain finish the job.
What is going on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Obama's lack of self-advertisement"

Thank you, Sharath, you made my day :)))

Will you people just have another civil war and get it over with? Trying to sleep here and the sound of your empire falling around your ears as you debate which lobbyist you want for President next, is keeping us up


The World as presently constituted

@ BJ: Like it or not, women have finally found a way to "reward" Obama for his treatment of Hillary.

And in doing so they are going to "reward" the Republicans for 8 years of screwing up this country.? Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face. The sad fact is that this election is not about the issues and who has the best vision and plan for our future. It is about soundbites, smears, one liners, lies and a uterus.. I have a hard time believing that voters, especially women are that dumb.

Molly @ 8:28 all I can say is I hope you are right.

Thank God for Sarah Palin! She is just what the White House needs! We need to cut wasteful spending. McCain and Palin are just what Washington needs! No wonder the democrats are in such a panic and the media has lost all control sending all the liberals and democrats to Alaska on a witch hunt trying to dig up anything they can find on Sarah which turns out to be nothing at all. I know who I'm voting for!!!!

Uh, dud, you democrats out there, sorry to rain on your parade but the Iragi war is pretty much over. Your candidate, the 3-card monte hustler still can't talk without a teleprompter and good old Joe Biden is still a sleazy political hack. And the left is still like the Latin word for left describes them as: Sinister. Next year please please start cleaning up the democrat party. It once was a pretty decent party until the political nutzs from the left stole it away from the people. Go Sarah, go kick the stuffing out of the phony stuffed shirts.

i personally dont think that the 8 past years have been hell. if they would have been hell for USA...Bush wouldnt have won again. McCain and Palin is what America needs. Whenever the candidates are asked questions, Obama answers one question and just blah blah blah on and on, and when they ask McCain he says what is needed to be said..short and the best answer! Compare what McCain has done for this country and what Obama has done! McCain knows what he is doing!

"I guess there a lot of stupid people out there who want to be under the thumb, like communists after Sept 4th. Since everyone or I should say alot of people want Obama the Communist to be our countries leader then we won't be able to complain. lets just refer to our Country as the USSA from now on."
"I could never vote for a candidate that supports a 'physician' inserting a saline-filled syringe into a baby's brain as it is being born. I believe people in the United States will answer before God for this practice along with the taking of thousands of innocent lives daily by abortion. We think the economy is so important, but God might have different priorities. Please vote for the candidate that loves life."
"Regarding the comment that McCain has been attacking Obama: I have always voted for the individual, not the “party”. However; you have to be blind not to see the bias shown throughout the presidential campaigns and the media coverage of them. I believe the McCain campaign should have attacked Obama's history even harder than they did. I think if McCain, or any republican for that matter, had all of the skeletons in his closet that Obama has, there would have been a dissecting of each and every event and relationship."

Subject: In his own words, Senator Obama pushes redistribution of wealth

If McCain wins, it will be proof that people ARE swayed by dirty campaigns, because that's all McCain's has been, especially lately. McCain's ads and rallies say very little about his policies, but plenty about what the McCain campaign says are Obama's suspect associations and socialist policies. McCain will never have my respect again.

All these Democrats that are against the war in iraq now were for the war in 2002 including Hillary Clinton. Let's face it both parties are trigger happy!

Our Congress which s largely democratic supported the war and they are also partly to blame for the economic mess we are in.

« | 1 2


Recommended on Facebook


In Case You Missed It...

About the Columnist
A veteran foreign and national correspondent, Andrew Malcolm has served on the L.A. Times Editorial Board and was a Pulitzer finalist in 2004. He is the author of 10 nonfiction books and father of four. Read more.
President Obama
Republican Politics
Democratic Politics



Get Alerts on Your Mobile Phone

Sign me up for the following lists: