2 new polls: Obama-McCain tied, but McCain-Palin surge among women

Suddenly, it's Poll City around here today.

As The Ticket reported earlier, the new Gallup/USA Today poll found a significant post-convention bounce for the John McCain-Sarah Palin ticket, a turnaround of 8 points to give the M-S ticket a 4-point lead over Barack Obama-Joe Biden.

But now this afternoon come two more national polls essentially confirming the same trends with some significant subterranean changes:

-- the ABC News/Washington Post national poll of registered voters, which shows Obama's 6-point August lead has evaporated to produce a 47-46 Obama-McCain statistical tie,

-- and a CNN/Opinion Research poll, which shows the race still tied at 48% apiece but McCain making significant gains in how voters view his handling of the economy, Iraq and healthcare.

The most surprising results -- and surely the most disturbing for the freshman Illinois senator's camp -- are the immense gains McCain has made among white women following the Republican National Convention and the well-received prime-time speech by Palin.

In barely three weeks since before the Democratic convention last month, that crucial group of female voters has moved from 50-42 in Obama's favor to 53-41 for McCain now.

That's a huge 20-point shift in almost as many days, no doubt attributed in large part to the addition of a woman to the Republican ticket, Alaskan Gov. Palin, for the first time in the party's 164-year history.

The same poll also revealed a large shift toward McCain in Midwest battleground states from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge. The same numbers also indicated Obama making little or no progress in the areas of having sufficient experience and wooing to his side former supporters of Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Obama still leads slightly among those who think he represents their values (48-44) and those who think he will bring change (51-39).

But McCain-Palin have pulled ahead among independents (50-43), among married women (48-44) and especially among white Catholics (59-36).

-- Andrew Malcolm

Comments

[John]

Hillary Clinton supporters wanted Hillary in the White House because they believed she was the most qualified person for the job. McCain selected Palin not because she was the most qualified, but because she is a woman.

This race is not about race or gender, yet McCain has obviously made this race about that issue by selecting a poorly qualified woman. Have the American people lost their mind? Isn't it clear to anyone that McCain's pick is a gimmick? What is wrong with America? It only makes sense now why Bush was selected a second time, and now maybe a third.

[John Sweeny]

Wow, what a difference a week makes. I was ready to vote for Obama but after hearing Palin I find myself embarrased that I even considered voting for Obama who has no history whatsoever. How could the Democratic party have appointed him? Who vetted him (and they ask who vetted Palin?) Me and all of my friends are McCain voters this time around

[Demeta]

So are women really this stupid? What do they like about Palin? Her ability to lie successfully, or her ability to mock community organizers in a snarky, screechy voice? Women, I am ashamed of my own gender. If women are going to vote for McCain because of Palin, this country deserves the country they will get. And remember you are not voting for her as Pres, unless...Fear, be very, very fearful...

[BJ]

Like it or not, women have finally found a way to "reward" Obama for his treatment of Hillary.

For those who wonder why anyone who preferred Hillary could vote for McCain... understand this, inasmuch as Obama claims to have the same policies as Hillary's, Obama started out with NO policies to speak of! All he did was pretty much plagiarize Hillary's policies with a token difference here and there. So really, no one knows what Obama really stands for.

McCain is a moderate Republican, and while I don't agree with everything he believes in, he is more palatable than Obama. And Palin is such a babe! And she's articulate, smart, she has courage and principles. Not that far off from Hillary really.

Bottom line... I don't trust Obama.

[Sharath]

Wow. Truly a disappointment in my opinion, Obama's lack of self-advertisement I mean, and now he's going to feel the full blast of that.

[Big Bud]

Lets make history--- Lets put a woman in the whitehouse. MaCain/Palin are what this country needs. Nobama is like a shiney christmas present that is empty inside. Looks good under the tree but no substance to him. WE NEED McCain/Palin --- Go John and Go Sarah

[Joanne Miller]

If you voted for Bush twice, you are loving Sarah Palin. She is the ultimate moron mobilizer.

I especially like how, as governor of Alaska, she sued the Bush administration to keep them from protecting the polar bear. Plus how she lobbied to allow shooting Alaska's wildlife from aircraft. You can't get any more American than that!

[DW]

McCain and Palin will do almost EXACTLY what GWB has been doing for eight years. McCain has bragged about his more than 90% agreement with GWB. He agrees with George W. Bush. Until it seemed like a bad political idea, he used to BRAG about it! Do you think you'll get a different result from a guy who thinks the same way as the last guy, the one who failed us so miserably? Just because he got shot down in a plane 30 years ago and is a forever hero? Let me repeat the basic concept one more time: John McCain has BRAGGED that he thinks the same way as George W. Bush, on a wide variety of issues. That includes war, the economy, schools, veterans, choice for women, social security, Medicare. All of it. Same as George W Bush.

Is this what bad schooling has done to us? Is critical thinking dead in our society? Have we fallen to such a low mental state that even when a guy BRAGS that he thinks the same as the loser before him, we STILL want to hire that guy to lead us?

God save us.

[Big Bud]

Go McCain. Go Palin -- we need your leadership. We need you two in the whitehouse. Noboma Noway Nohow.

[keith]

And still no mention of RON PAUL. tsk, tsk, when will you recognize the only REAL candidate for PRESIDENT?

(snicker)

[LISA STEPHENS]

Once they finish tutoring her and let her start talking that will change...

[skippy]

Obama: Change we used to believe in

[Katie]

I am utterly disgusted at how stupid the American public is, especially women...I can say that because I am a woman. I am ashamed at my own kind. How can anyone look at the speech that that smarmy b***h made, which was packed full of lies and think that this ticket is what is going to bring us in the right direction. All the GOP did was lie and deceive and this is exactly what they are going to keep doing. If you really want to keep getting the shaft for the next 4 years, go ahead, vote for these fools, but you are an idiot.

[Matt]

The human heart never changes; and what was true yesterday is just as true today; "nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public."

[David]

Obama really turned over his potential to become the first black president when he couldn't come to terms with Hillary and pick her as his VP. He maid a serious strategic error and John beat him like a close game of chess. I'm glad he made his error before he became president unlike G.B.Jr. Obama hopefully learned a valuable lesson, the Peter Principal apply to all.

I'm so upset at him for not choosing Hillary as his VP I'm going to vote for John because if your going to go down, go down in flames.

[A reader]

"huge 20-point shift "

so apparently sexism is ok if it's perpetrated by women...

(relax, i'm a woman, but i wouldn't vote for just any woman on the ballot!)

[David]

Obama really turned over his potential to become the first black president when he couldn't come to terms with Hillary and pick her as his VP. He maid a serious strategic error and John beat him like a close game of chess. I'm glad he made his error before he became president unlike G.B.Jr. Obama hopefully learned a valuable lesson, the Peter Principal apply to all.

I'm so upset at him for not choosing Hillary as his VP I'm going to vote for John because if your going to go down, go down in flames.

[sailorjohn]

As a VET, I can not see voting for Obama as he has never served this country in uniform nor as he ever been in a situation where he had to make the choice of how much he loves his country. McCAin has served his country and suffered for his country and still feels the affects of that period of time in his life.

Obama speaks of change, so does McCain. Both want to cross party lines to get America back on track. Well to me the best way to do that is to rid the two party system TODAY and have a McCain/Obama ticket.

But those in power in DC will never let that happen. So my vote is for the VET who has been servingHIS country for how many years now compared to say 3 years.

Obama would have gotten my vote if he had Hilly, but now he has a no body.

[cynthia from ukiah, ca]

does anyone remember what GWB said in his campaign speeches back in 1999? isn't there anyone who can write better so call "promising" speeches?

i think the best coverage of these campaigns has been
covered by The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. maybe
the staffs on both sides should watch the shows from
now on until one gets elected into the "big" office.

is there some way to do away with electoral votes
and just leave it to the people to really elect the person
needed to sit behind the desk of the oval office and
help run the country?

[francis]

I likely will vote for Obama. I'm an independent. Sizing up the whole situation, however, Obama is now...well...done. He has shown he does not know how to rumble with the big boys and girl. I am so disappointed how poorly he reads the electorate, and how poorly he campaigns. If he can't lead McCain by at least 6 points by now, with 80% disapproval rating of Bush, he is, well, incompetent. I'm very disappointed. Well, if McCain wins, at least I will pay less taxes...forever...what a terrible thought...My heart bleeds for America and our sons and daughters...

[cany]

I don't know WHY you guys aren't gettin' this, but this isn't about women, it is about religion. It isn't about facts, it's largely about abortion issues.

The God code in the GOP convention so was deep anyone looking for hit had their hip-waders flooded.

The right has embraced a candidate because of her religious values. Put a woman with brains in there (e.g. Olypiia Snow for instance) who wasn't referred to as a "babe" by many men, McCain would be back on the cold rock.

Why is it you guys are not getting this or are you just to write about it?

Oh. Then there's that little matter about racism.

Are you guys reporting from a bubble? You're assessments are about as useful as dirt.

[Bob Elliott]

McCain-Palin are calling for American Unity, not party unity as the Obama-Biden ticket is struggling with. I predict McCain-Palin will win by a landslide.

The only reason Obama did not pick Clinton as his VP is because Cook County wanted to wrest control of the Democratic party back from the Clintons. Having her on the Ticket would not accomplish that for Mayor Daley, the boss of "community organizers". I just wish some 'investigative reporter' would do a story on that bit, but I guess he is still too powerfull for any News Media to investigate.

God bless America

[Randy]

Once again, the DNC has "out slicked" themselves.

It's literally amazing how they've continually done this. In 28 years the only Democrat that has been elected as President is Bill Clinton (twice). How could they have thrown Hillary to the curb? What were they thinking? MAN-O-MAN!

IT'S TIME FOR A "REALITY CHECK" IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.

Furthermore, Hillary has got to be "peeved" at this situation as well as many other Democrats... I hope Barack "pays off" her debt at least, Geeez!

The DNC only has "two strategic maneuvers" available with the space and time constrants until election day. Well, maybe three. Three out of the Three involve a player or players by the name of ... "Clinton". LOL!

President Clinton is the "key" ... For some reason, I don't see Bill "working for free"... DO YOU? I wouldn't!

The GOP however has at least "5 counter maneuvers" at it's disposable. And with the majority of the electorate either Independent or Republican this is not looking good for Obama-Biden08.

McCain and the RNC's decision to select Sarah Palin is much more about alienating the DNC from the American voter. Sarah Palin is a direct reflection of the public's view of "merging progressive" movements all in one.

Sarah Palin "may not be perfect". But, she never claimed or exhibited messanic behavior. She communicates as a "public servant" that won't allow "anyone or any corporation" the opportunity to take advantage of citizens on "her watch".

McCain Palin08 .... "Made of the Right Stuff".

PS - I really feel sorry for the DNC. It's just unbelievable! But, they did it to themselves, again.

[Mimi]

McCain and Palin's campaign is based on lies and manipulation. Palin has been missrepresenting her past. Read this from an Alaskan:
As an Alaskan, I am writing to give all of you some information on Sarah Palin, Senator McCain's choice for VP. As an Alaska voter, I know more than most of you about her and, frankly, I am horrified that he picked her. The most accurate description of her is red neck. Her husband works in the oil fields of Prudhoe Bay and races snow mobiles. She is a life time member of the NRA and has worked tirelessly to allow indiscriminate hunting of wildlife in Alaska, particularly wolves and bears. She has spent millions of Alaska state dollars on aerial hunting of these predators from helicopters and airplanes, dollars that should have been spent, for example, on Alaska's failing school system.

We have the lowest rate of high school graduation in the country. Not all of you may think aerial predator hunting is so bad, but how anyone (other than Alaska wolf-haters, of which there are many, most without
teeth), could think this use of funds is appropriate is beyond me. If you want to know more about the aerial hunting travesty, let me know and I will send some links to informative web sites. She has been a strong supporter of increased use of fossil fuels, yet the McCain campaign has the nerve to say she has "green" policies. The only thing green about Sarah Palin is her lack of experience. She has consistently supported drilling in ANWR, use of coal-burning power
plants (as I write this, a new coal plant is being built in her home town of Wasilla), strip mining, and almost anything else that will unnecessarily exploit the diminishing resources of Alaska and destroy its environment.

Prior to her one year as governor of Alaska, she was mayor of Wasilla, a small red neck town outside Anchorage.The average maximum education
level of parents of junior high school kids in Wasilla is 10th grade. Unfortunately, I have to go to Wasilla every week to get groceries and other supplies, so I have continual contact with the people who put
Palin in office in the first place. I know what I'm talking about. These people don't have a concept of the world around them or of the serious issues facing the US. Furthermore, they don't care. So long as
they can go out and hunt their moose every fall, kill wolves and bears and drive their snow mobiles and ATVs through every corner of the wilderness, they're happy.

I wish I were exaggerating. Sarah Palin is currently involved in a political corruption scandal. She fired an individual in law enforcement here because she didn't like how he treated one of her relatives during a divorce. The man's performance and ability weren't
considered; it was a totally personal firing and is currently under investigation. While the issue isn't close to the scandal of Ted Steven's corruption, it shows that Palin isn't "squeaky clean" and causes me to think there ay be more issues that could come to light. Clearly McCain doesn't care.

When you line Palin up with Biden, the comparison would be laughable if it weren't so serious. Sarah Palin knows nothing of economics (admittedly a weak area for McCain), or of international affairs, knows nothing of national government, Social Security, unemployment, health care systems - you name it.

The idea of her meeting with heads of foreign governments around the world truly frightens me. In an increasingly dangerous world, with the economy in shambles in the US, Sarah Palin is uniquely UNqualified to be vice president. John McCain is not a young man. Should something happen to him such that the vice president had to step in, it would
destroy our country and possibly the world to have someone as inexperienced and inappropriate as Sarah Palin. The choice of Palin is a cheap shot by McCain to try to get Hillary supporters to vote for him. when McCain introduced her today, Palin had the nerve to compare herself with Hillary and Geraldine Ferraro. Sarah Palin, you are no Hillary Clinton.

To those of you who, like me, supported Hilary and were upset that she did not get the nomination, please don't think that Sarah Palin is a worthy substitute. If you supported Hillary, regardless of what you think the media and the democratic party may have done to undermine her campaign, the person to support now is Obama, not Sarah Palin.

To those of you who are independent or undecided, don't let the choice of Palin sway you in favor of McCain. Choosing her shows how unqualified McCain is to be president. To those of you who are conservative, I guess you have no choice for president. But please try to see how the poor choice of Palin tells us a great deal about McCain's judgment. To read full article, please click on:
http://www.mynews2u.com/hive_thread.php?fid=49

[JohnK.]

That John McCain will most likely win this election.
That makes me sad.
And it's not so much that I think it is because Obama is the better man for the job, because he is.
And it's not because because I think Obama's ideas are the better ones, because they are.

No, what's happened in this campaign is this the voters have drawn a line between the past and the future and have decided to go back to the past.
Let me explain.

What I see is the voters looking at the past 8 years as a period of American insecurity. They've gone along with it trusting Bush to get them out so that they can go forward. That hasn't happened. When faced with this election, they are at a fork in the road. Do they want to go with Obama on his quest to reshape America into what it could be. Or, do they want McCain, who offers them a mirage of return to the seemingly safe possibility of starting over at the location of the Clinton era prosperity .

That's what McCain is selling. A mulligan to the US people that lets them have another shot at getting it right if they could only get back to where they started from. In a video game it comes with unlimited lives to explore different scenarios.

Americans; life does not work like a video game.

To stand still now is folly, to try to get back to a memory and start over is impossible.

McCain's maverick clean up of Washington plays to what all Americans want to say: "The last 8 years were not really our fault. we were hijacked by bad people in Washington. If we get them out we can get back on track. It want us, it was them. Lets get them out."

Yes the last 8 years have been hell. But can a nation really, collectively, think that they can forgive themselves by trying to ignore what has happened in those 8 years?

The man who claims to have the power of absolution is a man who lived through the last hellish failure of America. He's managed to find some peace from his own war and now wants to offer the same sort of peace to the rest of America. I think that is what makes him so attractive to voters more than anything else. I think this need for absolution for the last 8 years really clouds the judgement of voters and has become the unspoken issue. Is it so strong a need that the future can be ignore?

Unfortunately for Americans, the world will not slow down and wait for the USA to catch up. That makes world events far more dangerous. As America goes through the McCain healing process, every act buy every other nation asserting its own destiny will be seen as an attack on America and a slight to US pride.

I wish you were a brave nation and took the other path, reaching past your own pain, to look far into the future as part of a better world.

John McCain has sold himself as a healer, and he may be that in the minds of many Americans.

So as brilliant and as statesmanlike Obama is, he may not have a chance against the placebo that McCain is offering.

It just looks too good to Americans not to have a taste of it.