National electoral map: See-saw struggle as Obama sees, McCain saws

Here's the latest national electoral map published by Karl Rove & Co., showing continued gains this month by Sen. Barack Obama.

Things are really heating up. There've been 35 new state polls just since last Sunday.

As a result, the Obama-Biden ticket has pulled into a lead in hypothetical electoral votes in the race with Sen. John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, for the first time since Labor Day when the Republican National Convention started in St. Paul.

The freshman Illinois legislator now has 211 electoral votes to McCain’s 189 with 138 now in the toss-up category. That's the largest number of toss-up votes since this research started last March.

The shift from earlier in the week came because McCain lost Florida, whose 27 electoral votes moved from the Arizonan's column into the toss-up category.

Also, New Hampshire with its whopping four electoral votes slipped from Obama's grasp into toss-up.

Still, Rove notes, "The race remains extremely close. If all of the toss-up votes were allocated to the candidate ahead today in them, Obama would eke out a narrow 273 to 265 electoral vote victory."

Now, that's close. The slightest change could affect the outcome.

Now, comes the first presidential debate. We'll have it all here, live-blogging plus the usual analysis and history.

The study's methodology is explained on the jump here (Click on the Read more line to get there). And there's also a chart there showing each week's results, going back to March. The Ticket will be publishing these results every few days from now through the election.

--Andrew Malcolm

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Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Credit: Map and Chart published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.

Comments

[John Quimby]

Thanks Karl.

Seems the old Confederacy is just as predictable as the words to Dixie.

After that, there is clearly a disconnect between urban liberals and rural voters. I've seen it in my county.

Urban liberals have good intentions but they don't understand rural white Americans - the last group it's OK to make fun of.

Time for urban environmentalists to get with the people who work the land, preserve small towns and grow the food we eat at great physical and financial risk.

The divide between urban and rural is a big deal because rural voters USED to be Democrats.

[VJ Machiavelli]

We need a break from all these polls, Every second a new poll.. This is becoming an election of polls. Polls to the right, polls to the left, every where you look another poll.

But at least Karl Rove is making a buck with all these polls.

Every where you look there is Karl and his polling chart.

VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com

[PulSamsara]

Why would America REWARD complete Republican failure ?

We wont.

[Bill Becker]

Isn't it bad enough that we have had to endure over 8 years of Rove-driven treachery in electoral politics? Why on earth does the Los Angeles Times give this man, and his "company" credibility. Aren't there enough non-partisan electoral analysts out there that we can ignore this paradigm of dirty politics?

[TBuley]

Will Gov. Kaine's Jesus ban tip VA to Mccain?

[susan]

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com