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National electoral map: McCain-Palin gains slow down; Obama rebounding?

With Sen. John McCain's surprise selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate, recent weeks have seen the Republican ticket surge in the national and state polls, especially among women.

This week's electoral map, however, shows Wisconsin slipping from Obama's grasp into the toss-up category. McCain still leads in the interim matchup, 227 electoral votes to 216 for Sen. Barack Obama, with 95 tossups.

Will the next week start to show Obama regaining momentum?

The map's methodology is explained below; click on "Read more." Also there is a chart from Karl Rove & Co. showing the race's movements each week since March.

— Andrew Malcolm

Rovemap

Rovechart

Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Map and chart published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.

 
Comments () | Archives (21)

The comments to this entry are closed.

Uh, excuse me, but this "electoral map" uses averages from at least 14 days ago! Mmm, that takes us back to right about where the Republicans had their convention bounce. Do you know just how much things have changed in the last week? How about offering other electoral maps than the one by Karl and Co? Even links might be nice, e.g., http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Forget Uncle Karl. Here are some reasons why McCain is going to lose.

“A Dozen Reasons Why McCain Won’t Win: Money-Back Guarantee”
http://msa4.wordpress.com/

If McCain stays level in the debates, it is certain he will win the general election by a very small margin.

Why? When voters enter the booth, safety and security in their choice will come to the forefront and Obama can't provide ANY SAFETY because HE"S NEVER DONE ANYTHING IMPORTANT.

In an uncertain climate, McCain will appeal more than Obama - PERIOD.

Uhm, the site does have an age requirement of at least 13...

hai,
it is high time for a change in US administration, the economy of the country has gone down drastically during President Bush tenure so also failure on other fronts.
let the american people realise the factual position and vote for the Obama and Joe for the next President of their country so that the change is really made in US.
this will not only help the US but also the Europeans and the rest of the world at large.
god bless the world

I still can't figure out how Karl Rove, the ultimate partisan and manipulator, worked his way into the editorial pages of the LA Times or anywhere else, to provide us "information". Isn't that sort of like getting your info from Fox News?

I am appalled to see you publishing graphics from a karl rove company website. Shame on you.

(Well, get over it.)

Obama shoud use OLD versus NEW instead of change.
OLD are te financial institutes that do'nt work. OLD is McCain. OLD versus NEW is positive, change is only that you dislike the current situation. OLD versus NEW McCain cannot copy like he did copy Change. Because he is OLD and never can play the NEW guy. Amaricans shoud admid that their capitalism and democracy (the OLD) should change. That's a hard thing for OLD people and figter pilots that build america. But building it doesn't give the right to bring america down by repeating old dreams.

McCain and Palin will win because Jesus will make it happen. Jesus watches over elections and guides them with his infinite wisdom. If theirs fraud , Jesus will ascend the heavens and bring war on the fags of America like he did in New Orleans. Then Jesus will rule over the us and give us all AK-47 and protect babies and make us all pray three time a day to him. All are women will wear full body robes and be stay at home baby makers! McCain needs to be president, so we can kill the communists and wreak havoc on the rest of the world and enslave other nations for their oil rights. With a Christian at the wheel we can recapture the world of the self-righteous

----------------------McCain / Palin in 08' -------------------

McCain and Palin will win because Jesus will make it happen. Jesus watches over elections and guides them with his infinite wisdom. If theirs fraud , Jesus will ascend the heavens and bring war on the fags of America like he did in New Orleans. Then Jesus will rule over the us and give us all AK-47 and protect babies and make us all pray three time a day to him. All are women will wear full body robes and be stay at home baby makers! McCain needs to be president, so we can kill the communists and wreak havoc on the rest of the world and enslave other nations for their oil rights. With a Christian at the wheel we can recapture the world of the self-righteous

----------------------McCain / Palin in 08' -------------------

I thought that Karl Rove has lost his credibility long ago, since President Bush fired him. If this president, whom is considered a 'lame duck' does not want anything to do with Karl Rove, do you want us to take Karl Roves "opinion"? This reminds me of some defense contractor, selling the design of the newest army tank, that it is designed to stand against any tank in any previous war, but not so sure about the future ones.


(Obviously, you thought wrong.)

Why on Earth are you using an electoral map that is not only out of date but that was produced by KARL ROVE and Co.?!

As the campaign starts to get back to core issues, we will undoubtedly see that Palin is just a flash in the pan. It would be interesting to see the poll results next week when the current economic news is factored in (especially considering the level of incompetence and vacillation that John McCain demonstrated during this time). Comments welcome: http://whenelephantsfly.blogspot.com

It is obvious that the morning dew is still in some folks eyes from the looks of these comments. God says that the earth will be destroyed by fire next time and not by flood or man; therefore McCain/Palin will not be the next POTUS because that would surely bring a natural disaster.

Have you listened to Palin answer questions. You can't be serious and McCain isn't any better. Be honest about your purpose for voting. Be a man or woman and honest with yourselves about the candidate you are choosing.

"Map and chart published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co."

Are you kidding?

And you start from a date which represents something not quite clear--if in your example Montana's most recent poll was July 1, just what IS that data that comes after July 1? Isn't July 1 then the ONLY poll in the period July 1-15?

This is absurd. You're wasting our time.

Obama may win the popular vote but lose the eletroral vote; this would be poetic justice for the Democratic Party.

Rather than demanding electoral reform, after the Bush/Gore fiasco in 2000, the Democrats opted to preserve the flawed status quo.

The Democrats deserve such an outcome, but the nation does not. When will real electoral reform come about?

LOL WOW LA TIMES? WI now back into TOSSUP? MCCAIN HAS NEVER LEAD A POLL IN WI. What the hell is this?

Wait until the word gets around on how much money Obama made on shady deals with the heads of Fannie Mae.

I always wondered how he could afford a multi-million dollar home and and multi-million dollar airplane on a communitiy activist salary.

Now I think I know. Between his Mafia buddy Retzko, his underground terrorists buddy, Ayers and the head of Fannie Mae who is now on his campaign staff Raynes, I am beginning to get the picture.

I was going to wait until CNN printed the story, but I don't think I will live that long; but we always have Fox News to report while we decide. Fox the REALLY most trusted name in news.

Obama loves to play the race card! Oprah won't have Sarah Palin on her show, Whoopi Goodberg ask McCain if he's going to reintroduce slavery, the Gov. of NY says that it's racist to use the term "community organizer," rapper Ludacris says we should paint the White House black!"
Not to mention Rev. Wright! I am not black! John McCain will be the president for all the people! I don't want four years of Obama playing the race card!

The majority of Americans take a couple of days to get it because of work, family and other things that come before politics. When they grasp that Obama has been fannie-mae's fanny-pack for bail out money and that Fannie-Mae, the fannie-mae that defaulted on $800 billion in loans, helped finance the "civil-rights activist's" campaign, the liberal-administered polls will swing back quickly in McCain's favor.
Charles Rangle, who has not paid his over-due taxes in years and rents multiple government substidized NY apartments for himself. is spewing skunk potion all over the democrats by not stepping aside. Republicans may take over the House thanks to "the singer" Charles Rangel who writes your tax increases.

All the former slave states line up with McCain and Palin. Throw in the interior of the country, with their authoritarian anti-intellectual proclivities, and the Obama/Biden ticket is left with the Northeast, the West Coast, and a few Great Lakes states that have been devastated by loss of manufacturing jobs. This all tells us a great deal about America's people.

Obama and the Dems love to play the race card!
Hey DEms you are not victims1 Stand up on your own two feet!


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About the Columnist
A veteran foreign and national correspondent, Andrew Malcolm has served on the L.A. Times Editorial Board and was a Pulitzer finalist in 2004. He is the author of 10 nonfiction books and father of four. Read more.
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