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National electoral map: McCain-Palin gains slow down; Obama rebounding?

September 18, 2008 | 11:16 pm

With Sen. John McCain's surprise selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his vice presidential running mate, recent weeks have seen the Republican ticket surge in the national and state polls, especially among women.

This week's electoral map, however, shows Wisconsin slipping from Obama's grasp into the toss-up category. McCain still leads in the interim matchup, 227 electoral votes to 216 for Sen. Barack Obama, with 95 tossups.

Will the next week start to show Obama regaining momentum?

The map's methodology is explained below; click on "Read more." Also there is a chart from Karl Rove & Co. showing the race's movements each week since March.

— Andrew Malcolm




For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Map and chart published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.