The Ticket's weekly national electoral map; McCain's bounce gains 2 states

Here is the latest national electoral map constructed by Karl Rove & Co., which The Ticket publishes weekly as they become available.

Sen. John McCain’s bounce in the national polls has started to trickle down to the state level—he now trails Sen. Barack Obama by only 26 electoral votes, making the race closer now than it has been at any point since early June.

Overall, Obama holds on to 226 electoral votes, while McCain moves up to 200 votes, and 112 votes are a toss-up, a new high in that category. McCain picked up two states from the toss-up column -- Montana (3 EV) and North Dakota (3 EV), likely putting an end to Obama’s efforts to target these traditionally Republican states.

One bright spot for Obama is that a new poll in New Hampshire (4 EV) moved the Granite State from toss-up into his column.

But the largest shift in the race came from two swing states that Democrats Al Gore and John Kerry both won, Michigan (17 EV) and Pennsylvania (21 EV), moving away from Democrat Obama's column into the toss-up category.

It’s very difficult to see how Obama can get to 270 electoral votes without those states.

Meanwhile, two other toss-up states, Virginia (13 EV) and Florida (27 EV) edged closer to McCain. He now is ahead by 3 points in both states. If McCain has another similarly favorable week, both may move to his column and give him an Electoral College lead.

A chart showing all the weely movements of this ongoing study since March is available by clicking on the Read more line below. The Methodology is also explained there.

--Andrew Malcolm

Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Map and Chart published with the permission of Karl Rove & Co.

Comments

[David]

Map created and published by Rove and Co.? Sounds objective to me. He has never tried to lie about anything related to an election.

[TakeBackUSA]

The Real John McCain: What a Maverick!!!!!
A must read!!!! First wife out of sight, how shallow can one man be?

By Carol McCain:

McCain likes to illustrate his moral fiber by referring to his five years as a prisoner-of-war in Vietnam . And to demonstrate his commitment to family values, the 71-year- old former US Navy pilot pays warm tribute to his beautiful blonde wife, Cindy, with whom he has four children. But there is another Mrs. McCain who casts a ghostly shadow over the Senator's presidential campaign. She is seldom seen and rarely written about, despite being mother to McCain's three eldest children.

She was the woman McCain dreamed of during his long incarceration and torture in Vietnam 's infamous 'Hanoi Hilton' prison and the woman who faithfully stayed at home looking after the children and waiting anxiously for news. But when McCain returned to America in 1973 to a fanfare of publicity and a handshake from Richard Nixon, he discovered his wife had been disfigured in a terrible car crash three years earlier. Her car had skidded on icy roads into a telegraph pole on Christmas Eve, 1969.

Her pelvis and one arm were shattered by the impact and she suffered massive internal injuries.

When Carol was discharged from hospital after six months of life-saving surgery, the prognosis was bleak. In order to save her legs, surgeons had been forced to cut away huge sections of shattered bone, taking with it her tall, willowy figure. She was confined to a wheelchair and was forced to use a catheter. Today, she stands at just 5' 4" in and still walks awkwardly, with a pronounced limp. Her body is held together by screws and metal plates and, at 70, her face is worn by wrinkles that speak of decades of silent suffering.

For nearly 30 years, Carol has maintained a dignified silence about the accident, McCain and their divorce. But last week at the bungalow where she now lives at Virginia Beach, a faded seaside resort 200 miles south of Washington, she told The Mail on Sunday how McCain divorced her in 1980 and married Cindy, 18 years his junior and the heir to an Arizona brewing fortune, just one month later.

My marriage ended because John McCain didn't want to be 40, he wanted to be 25. You know that happens...it just does.'

In 1979 - while still married to Carol - he met Cindy at a cocktail party in Hawaii . Over the next six months he pursued her, flying around the country to see her. Then he began to push to end his marriage. Some of McCain's acquaintances are less forgiving, however. They portray the politician as a self-centered womanizer who effectively abandoned his crippled wife to 'play the field'. They accuse him of finally settling on Cindy, a former rodeo beauty queen, for financial reasons.

Ted Sampley, who fought with US Special Forces in Vietnam and is now a leading campaigner for veterans' rights,
said: 'I have been following John McCain's career for nearly 20 years. I know him personally. There is something wrong with this guy and let me tell you what it is -deceit.'

When he came home and saw that Carol was not the beauty he left behind, he started running around on her almost right away. Everybody around him knew it. Eventually he met Cindy and she was young and beautiful and very wealthy. At that point McCain just dumped Carol for something he thought was better."

McCain is the classic opportunist. He's always reaching for attention and glory,' he said. After he came home, Carol walked with a limp. So he threw her over for a poster girl with big money from Arizona . And the rest is history.'

Ross Perot, a billionaire Texas businessman, and a former presidential candidate, who paid her medical bills all those years ago, now believes that both Carol McCain and the American people have been taken in by a man who is unusually slick and cruel - even by the standards of modern politics.

Olivia

The Will of God never takes you to where the Grace of God will not protect you

[lucy2008]

Karl Rove &Co.?
Why are you publishing this stuff?

Red states becoming more red is hardly news.

[brainspanker]

It won’t last, but please.

When Doubtfire (McCsin) first announced Palin, I was confused. Dumbfounded. I gathered my thoughts and faculties and arrived at the judgment that it was the most cynical and profoundly ridiculous move in contemporary politics I’d ever seen.

I was right. It is. I admit I’m mouth breathing over the interest, sensation and spectacle surrounding the entire debacle, but I’m here to tell you, it won’t last. She brings nothing. She has nothing. It may look like a brilliant move this week, within two weeks, it will be over save for the shouting.

I’m hoping sooner. Our Man played his bishop on the chessboard with Biden. McCain took a pawn out of his pocket, painted with sparkly nail polish and placed it on the board with a reluctant palsy. He realized it was plastic and it’s weight confused his geriatric hand. He briefly forgot what he was doing when he noticed the rest of the pieces were made of marble. He took a drink of his diet soda and struggled to remember.

Despite it all, the great unwashed did a standing O and then executed a near flawless wave. Tens of them.
http://brainspank.org/wordpress/?p=312

[brainspanker]

It won’t last, but please.

When Doubtfire (McCsin) first announced Palin, I was confused. Dumbfounded. I gathered my thoughts and faculties and arrived at the judgment that it was the most cynical and profoundly ridiculous move in contemporary politics I’d ever seen.

I was right. It is. I admit I’m mouth breathing over the interest, sensation and spectacle surrounding the entire debacle, but I’m here to tell you, it won’t last. She brings nothing. She has nothing. It may look like a brilliant move this week, within two weeks, it will be over save for the shouting.

I’m hoping sooner. Our Man played his bishop on the chessboard with Biden. McCain took a pawn out of his pocket, painted with sparkly nail polish and placed it on the board with a reluctant palsy. He realized it was plastic and it’s weight confused his geriatric hand. He briefly forgot what he was doing when he noticed the rest of the pieces were made of marble. He took a drink of his diet soda and struggled to remember.

Despite it all, the great unwashed did a standing O and then executed a near flawless wave. Tens of them.
http://brainspank.org/wordpress/?p=312

[Paul]

By Tom Hamburger and Maeve Reston, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
September 13, 2008
NEW YORK -- John McCain got it wrong Friday when he asserted that his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, had not requested any earmarks, the spending directives lawmakers insert in spending bills that McCain has vowed to eliminate.

Palin, in fact, requested $198 million in federal earmarks in February, including such expenses as $487,000 to fight obesity in Alaska and $4 million to develop recreational trails.

[Karl]

Investigation to begin into whether Governor Sarah Palin abused her power in firing Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan
By Corey Allen-Young, CBS 11 News Reporter
Article Last Updated: 07/28/2008 06:49:51 PM AKDT

Lawmakers will hire someone within a week to investigate whether Governor Sarah Palin abused her power in firing Public Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan. The legislative council approved 100,000 dollars for the investigation that will find out whether Palin was angry at Monegan for not firing an Alaska State Trooper who went through a messy divorce with Palin's sister.
On Monday afternoon, the Joint Legislative Council, filled with Republicans and Democrats, voted 12 to 0 to formally call for an investigation against Governor Palin in a manner—that they are stressing—will be unbiased and done in a timely fashion.
Legislators approved hiring a special investigator to look into the controversial firing of former Public

Courtesy, KTOO-TV
Safety Commissioner Walt Monegan. Monegan was fired two weeks ago without explanation and has said he was pressured by the governor and her staff to fire a trooper who was once married to Palin's sister.
Accusations have risen that Monegan was fired for his refusal to fire trooper Michael Wooten. The council's intent is to investigate the circumstances and events surrounding the termination of Monegan and potential abuses of power and improper action by the Governor and her administration.
"It is the intent of the legislative council that the investigation be professional, unbiased, independent, objective, and conducted at arms length from the political process," said, Senator Kim Elton, a Democrat from Juneau.
The council's intent is to investigate the circumstances and events surrounding the termination of Monegan and potential abuses of power and improper action by the governor and her administration.
"I think what it really gets down to is after the comma, add potential abuses of power and

[angler]

http://mediamatters.org/countyfair/200809130004

[Shaun]

Karl Rove & Co - seriously, that's your source?

[TIMMYB]

Does the fact that you used to be Laura Bush's press secretary have anything to do with your map being titled stating "Rovechart910"?

Who is this "Rove" fellow you got this B/S map from?

[Jack Mingo]

Wait a minute...you're publishing electoral projections from "Karl Rove & Co"? Karl Rove, as in "advisor to candidate John McCain's campaign"? Karl Rove, as in "Bush's brain and dirty-tricks specialist who smeared Valerie Plame and lied about it"? Karl Rove, as in "my math says the Republicans will keep control of both Houses in 2006"? Is there anybody at the LAT with any judgment to tell you why this is a really, really bad idea?
There are impartial groups that will do the same thing. Have you considered one of them?

[Tim O]

These are the three latest entries on the Los Angeles Times' "Top of the Ticket" blog:

"The Ticket's weekly national electoral map; McCain's bounce gains 2 states": Actually, The Ticket's national electoral map is Karl Rove's electoral map. Literally: "Here is the latest national electoral map constructed by Karl Rove & Co., which The Ticket publishes weekly as they become available."

"So, looks like it was Charlie Gibson's gaffe on Bush doctrine, not Sarah Palin's": Based on nothing more than the say-so of conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer, The Ticket leaps to Sarah Palin's defense, approvingly quotes Krauthammer's attacks on Gibson, and snidely concludes: Wonder if there'll be time to cover this story on 'World News' come Monday night." But even Krauthammer acknowledges "Palin didn't know" what the Bush doctrine is. The Ticket quotes that acknowledgment - but still asserts that Palin didn't commit a "gaffe" on the question. Bizarre.

"Oops, Obama ad mocks McCain's inability to send e-mail. Trouble is, he can't due to tortured fingers": The Ticket picks up on conservative columnist Jonah Goldberg's spin and runs with it. The Ticket doesn't mention that McCain told the New York Times earlier this year, "I use the Blackberry, but I don't e-mail, I've never felt the particular need to e-mail." If he can use the buttons on a Blackberry, it seems pretty safe to assume the Goldberg/Ticket line is just spin. (h/t John Cole, via Atrios)

So: a post in which The Ticket uncritically adopts as fact Jonah Goldberg's defense of John McCain, a post in which The Ticket uncritically adopts Charles Krauthammer's defense of Sarah Palin, and a post in which The Ticket adopts Karl Rove's electoral map as its own.
Now, would it surprise you to learn that all three entries were written by Los Angeles Times reporter Andrew Malcolm? Would it surprise you to learn that Malcolm used to be Laura Bush's press secretary?

Laura Bush'sPress Secretary!?!? Now that's fari and balanced! Ack! Sick!

[Dani]

Why are you publishing an electoral map drawn by Karl Rove while providing no analysis of the map's accuracy and uncritically quoting the statistics contained therein? A map drawn by Rove & Co. is hardly going to be unbiased. Is this part of the "liberal media conspiracy" I keep hearing about? I guess it's too much to expect a semblance of fairness from a man who was once Laura Bush's press secretary. Pathetic.

[Kellygirl]

I see that Karl Rove is responsible for the map. Just curious if he is using the same math that he used in 2006?

[Phil Ball]

I notice that your map of red and blue states and their status is a product of Rove and Co.
Until you run an explanation clearly stating that this is not the same Karl Rove we all know to be a liar, why in the world should we believe what this map purports to tell us?

[Buck Jones]

Why are you using a map from KARL ROVE?
I seriously doubt we can trust anything from HIM!

[Hilary Smith]

Karl Rove does maps? I thought the LA Times had been smelling a little corporate lately. You guys are failing in your role as "watch dog." Find another business.

[Mitchell in NY]

Palin will become a deficit. McCain has broke his trust with the American people by picking a weak VP. Now his campaign is running on lies. Watch for the polls to start moving slightly back towards Obama in the next week and then accelerate in his direction after the debates.

On a list of a (baker's) dozen reasons why McCain will lose, #7:

7. The Not So Straight-talk Factor: McCain has built his reputation on being a man of principle. This has two features: he believes in something and he sticks with what he believes in. McCain has recently begun to backpedal on principles and commitments. He is vulnerable to being viewed as a flip-flopper, if not dishonest, which will undermine his hitherto greatest strength. See “The Carpetbagger Report” for an extensive list of McCain’s Flip-flops.

“A Dozen Reasons Why McCain Won’t Win: Money-Back Guarantee”
http://msa4.wordpress.com/

[mister zee]

What a disgrace. Shame on you LA times, you disgrace your masthead and the profession of journalism by publishing this naked spin as fact.

[dan]

It's always worth a chuckle watching liberals trying to find reasons to deny reality. That's what usually happens when you live in la la land.

Karl Rove has done more due diligence on the presidential race, down to county and precinct levels yet simply because the liberals don't like what they see, they dismiss it as being bogus.

Yet they embrace factcheck.org as the truth in the absolute, not caring that the funding comes from Annenberg...the very same Annenberg that funded the board that both Obama and Ayres chaired. The very same board that refuses to release requested documents.

Liberalism - living in a state of denial.

[yourservant]

Yes Boss, Brilliant. Can I bring you another drink Sir?

[Ted Burke]

I have to wonder aloud why the Los Angeles Times is using any service from Karl Rove given his undisguised partisanship. Considering that he's been willing to engineering any method needed to win an election, your source is tainted. You're better off dropping him and seeking a less controversial analytical source. Either that, or marshal your resources and expand your talent pool to offer your own.

[Jim]

Obama's not exactly positions: 29.) I Am Tough On Terrorism - NOT EXACTLY, you
missed the Iran Resolution vote on terrorism and your good friend Ali Abunimah supports the destruction of Israel . 30.) I Want All Votes To Count - NOT EXACTLY, you said let the delegates decide. 31.) I Want Americans To Decide - NOT EXACTLY, you prefer caucuses that limit the vote, confuse the voters, force a public vote, and only operate during small windows of time. 32.) I passed 900 Bills in the State Senate - NOT EXACTLY, you passed 26, most of which you didn't write yourself. 33.) I Believe In Fairness, Not Tactics - NOT EXACTLY, you used tactics to eliminate Alice Palmer from running against you. 34.) I Don't Take PAC Money - NOT EXACTLY, you take loads of it. 35.) I don't Have Lobbysists - NOT EXACTLY, you have over 47 lobbyists, and counting. 36.) My Campaign Had Nothing To Do With The 1984 Ad - NOT EXACTLY, your own campaign worker made the ad on his Apple in one afternoon. 37.) I Have Always Been Against Iraq - NOT EXACTLY, you weren't in office to vote against it AND you have voted to fund it every single time. 38.) I Have Always Supported Universal Health Care - NOT EXACTLY, your plan leaves us all to pay for the 15,000,000 who don't have to buy it.39.) My uncle liberated Auschwitz concentration camp - NOT EXACTLY, your mother had no brothers and the Russan army did the liberating.

[Jean]

Since when do the electoral voters make up their minds before seeing what the voters want?

As I have personally spoken with my state representative, he states the electoral votes go the way of the voter. When the votes "being counted" on election night show a favorable swing one way or another, it is then decided which way the electoral vote will go.

Also, there will ONLY be a total electoral votes going to one candidate or the other. No split electoral votes. This I disagree with but what do we do? Electoral votes came in to play because government didn't want "close" elections. All it did was take the individual vote away from the public.

How is it 500+ people can decide who becomes president? Doesn't make any sense to me that the "electoral votes are already being counted".

Voting methods need to change so the public has a say in who is in office.

[desert dawg]

For those of you who don't like Karl Rove's analysis, there are half a dozen other maps all over the internet, and all showing the same trend line--Obama is shedding EV votes.

Rather than criticizing the Times, try doing some outside reading.