National electoral map: Obama's lead over McCain growing

This week's new hypothetical electoral map from Karl Rove & Co. shows Democrat Barack Obama's current electoral lead widening over Republican Sen. John McCain to the largest margin since the GOP's National Convention right after Labor Day.

Obama now leads, according to Rove's calculations, 259 electoral votes to McCain's 163 with 116 in the toss-up category. The freshman Illinois senator has picked up 48 electoral votes since last week from Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylania.

McCain, meanwhile, has lost Missouri and North Carolina's 26 electoral votes from his column into the toss-up category.

Rove predicts, "With 36 days remaining before the election, each candidates has the time and ability to change the dynamic of the race -– and I am confident that will happen several times more."

A chart showing the weekly changes since June 1 and explaining the research's methodology is available by clicking on the Read more line below.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between July 1 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Image: National electoral map and chart. Credit: Karl Rove & Co.

Comments

[richard schumacher]

It must be true, for as we all know Rove has "The Math". Or is this merely another of Rove's dishonest ploys to rally the GOP?

Perhaps after this election both parties will agree to effectively scrap the Electoral College.

[Dark Ages Begone]

Dare I hope that in a Democratic administration, Carl Rove and Dick Cheney can be brought to justice? All those years of spying on Americans, corrupting our justice system, treasonous disclosure of our intelligence agents, etc. will finally end with an accounting.

Remember. it is not a witch burning if they are real witches.

[Red State, Blue State, who needs a new State!]

Life is short and we need a new world. The individual is dead. We need a collective experience That get's rid of individual experience. We should let go of individual success and find collective success. This is what Obama is really about! Hail Obama!

http://www.boppoll.com

Obama '08

[RJ]

It’s discouraging to think how many people are shocked by honesty and how few by deceit.

Noel Coward

[this complicated world]

Let's be honest here. McCain imagines a world of stark black and white, wrong or right choices. He cites dramatic examples and makes risky gambles. But let's be honest here. In the real world, where you and I live, where most of us are damn well certain of how many homes we have, the consequences of our choices aren't quite so stark as he imagines. We live in a world of nuance, a world of technology and open knowledge, we live in a place where every possible consequence has to be imagined and anticipated. Where victory and defeat are empty words when we can't afford to pay our rent or go to the doctor.

In this complicated, nuanced world, we choose our words carefully, we talk to our enemies as well as our allies, and we stop and think about what we do before we do it. Otherwise we face financial ruin, place our families in danger, and continue to harm the planet in disastrous ways.

For McCain, they are either with us or against us. Heroes or Villains. Let's be frank. That attitude, the consequences of that attitude, now threaten to destroy our world. We choose whether we continue to use 20th century attitudes, even 19th century attitudes, in a 21st century future. Let's consider the consequences of our actions very carefully.

Especially on election day.

[Shikarpuri]

Take a look at a more precise estimate based on modeling statistical variability in the polls http://election08.cs.uiuc.edu

[rick huffman]

The recent events underscore the desperate attempt of John McCain to do anything lie,cheat, steal, and be as ugly and mean spirited as he can. The republican strategy is one of division, divide on race,religion, fake ideology, and pit patriotism versus reality. It is shameful that this is the point in time when our leaders need to lead not show up for a photo opt and then claim to have saved the day when you sat in a room for four hours and said nothing..now thats leadership John. Now Obama,has remained cool looked the situation and has made the appeals needed rather than lay blame and play divisive politics with such dire times. But he did support George 95% of the time.I vote Obama/Biden for our future.We cannot afford four more of George and Bimbo Palin

[aleks]

Why would a newspaper hoping to be regarded as credible use analysis from Karl Rove?

[TJ]

When did the GOP fall hostage to names like Rove, McCain, Bush, Chaney, Cantor, Liebermann, Romney, Palin, Boehner....what happened?

This party is imploding and is going to die off after this election. They are the biggest bunch of liars and they do not even try to cover it up anymore.

It is obvious they have no respect for the country or the people in it.

[dave]

'i never saw a purple cow; i never hope to see one;
but I can tell you anyhow; i'd rather see than be one!'
- gelett burgess

there are less crude election maps, less polarized and more detailed, with party colors represented in shades of purple, varying from red to blue.
but anyhow: when the people look for choices, they've already been made for them. and those not wanted by the powerful - anyone who'll tell the truth, resist corruption, and offer real solutions - has been tabooed untouchable. so many people, in mortal fear of the legitimate and qualified candidates they've been misled to mistake for 'moonbats' and 'barking loons' - many will not be able to see the truth of their message, and the lies told by others. so some will dream of a blue donkey, and others hope for a red elephant to save them, and many fail to see they'll fall again, for the same deceitful purple cow. only when people stop voting for political parties, or the interests of corporations and cartels, and banking dynasties, but reserve their vote for someone who will represent their own vital interests, and is accountable to them - only then can they reclaim their country, and see their rights and liberties restored.
to implement constitutional principles and values in government and politics, will guarantee true and lasting benefits for everyone.
this can best be done, by people of wisdom and integrity, such as RON PAUL.

the election of the president by national popular vote, as promoted by birch bayh (in), john anderson (il), tom campbell (ca) and others, would be the end of the american republic. it would transfer the powers now remaining at state level to the federal government, practically reducing presidential elections, then by national popular vote, to an empty ritual or 'democratic' fig leaf, as typically seen in many de facto dictatorships, some even named 'people's republic' and the like. there would not be anything left in terms of checks and balances to counter the random nomination of any candidates by the ruling establishment. in reality, there wouldn't even be the least of democratic choice. a popular vote for either of two candidates selected and controlled by the same ruling establishment, and running for the same agenda, is worthless. there would be no accountability whatsoever. to contend that such a thing would be the constitutional thing to do, either in the interest of the people or the states, as bayh suggests, 'it's refreshing to know states have the ability under the constitution to step up and create the sensible solution americans have long been supporting,' is a brazen-faced lie. it would make constitutional principles an outmoded concept and put the constitution out of practical use altogether. there would not be much left to distinguish america from china. on the contrary, the sensible thing to do for the people to regain control over their government, is to strengthen power on state and local levels. to select presidential electors by congressional districts, as suggested in a post above, seems to be a good start. also, it might be helpful to revise illegally introduced amendments to the constitution such as the 14th amendment, and to get rid of some of the more notorious 'progressive era' amendments, the 16th amendment authorizing income tax; and the 17th amendment, replacing article I, section 3 of the constitution to the extent that it provides for the direct election of senators by the people of a state rather than their election or appointment by a state legislature. the election of state senators by popular vote, has practically further shifted the balance of power from the states to the federal government. it might also generally be a good idea to inform people how and why, presidential elections are different from a beauty queen contest.

[Urinmymachine]

It almost seems like this election has come down to Karl Rove disruptive politics vs. the democrats. I will give him credit for pulling out every dirty rotten Nixon trick in the book, in order to find a way to get McCain ahead. However, in this typhoon political season, there seems to be nothing that McCain or Karl can do or say, in the face of a series of unfortunate events, which more and more appear to be not random, but the result of absentee government. It is clear that Trickle Down economics and lassiz faire policies, which are the foundation of McCain philosophy, have officially failed.

If there are actually any real followers of McCain left, they are so blinded by these failed philosophies, that they can not see what will happen when he gets elected. He is Herbert Hoover, especially when his answer a few months ago to the economic crisis, was to let the banks fail, and the best answer is to "give the corporations more tax breaks!". The nerve of this misguided man. Just like Herbert Hoover, his election would result in a man standing over the economy and saying "there is nothing we can do!".

So, for anybody reading this, let's not let the US really go into depression. Let's remove the current republican administration and clean the slate. These guys got to go! And we need to start cleaning up now, not in 4 years, when we have a 25% unemployment rate. Not that Obama is the answer to everything, but he is the right person at the right time, to take us in a new deal. Reaganism, our longstanding philosophy is now officially dead.

[KFB]

I Agree with TJ, who said ...

"When did the GOP fall hostage to names like Rove, McCain, Bush, Chaney, Cantor, Liebermann, Romney, Palin, Boehner....what happened?

This party is imploding and is going to die off after this election. They are the biggest bunch of liars and they do not even try to cover it up anymore.

It is obvious they have no respect for the country or the people in it.

Posted by: TJ | September 29, 2008 at 09:30 PM"

I have been a Republican all my life, I campaigned for Ronald Reagan three times (76,80,84) and this Republican party, led by GWB (and including John McCain) has abandoned and betrayed the American people.

[mvymvy]

What the U.S. Constitution says is "Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors . . ." The U.S. Supreme Court has repeatedly characterized the authority of the state legislatures over the manner of awarding their electoral votes as "plenary" and "exclusive."

Neither of the two most important features of the current system of electing the President (namely, that the voters may vote and the winner-take-all rule) are in the U.S. Constitution. Neither was the choice of the Founders when they went back to their states to organize the nation's first presidential election.

In 1789, in the nation's first election, the people had no vote for President in most states, it was necessary to own a substantial amount of property in order to vote, and only 3 states used the winner-take-all rule (awarding all of a state's electoral vote to the candidate who gets the most votes in the state). Since then, as a result of changes in state laws, the people have the right to vote for presidential electors in 100% of the states, there are no property requirements for voting in any state, and the winner-take-all rule is used by 48 of the 50 states.

The "normal process" of effecting change in the method of electing the President is specified the U.S. Constitution, namely action by the state legislatures. This is how the current system was created, and this is the built-in method that the Constitution provides for making changes.

[mvymvy]

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

susan

[Letha]

can someone please tell me what make states like Missouri,Ohio and maybe PA SO TOUGH FOR OBAMA TO WIN.Not only obama but kerry and gore also .

[arelgum]

Republicans are once again showing how well they have mastered the art of obviscation and deceit. Marsha Blackburn and Sarah Palin are routinely answering questions they would like to steer conversations to, rather than those actually asked. The surprising thing about it is that they are being allowed to get away with it.