The Ticket's national electoral map: McCain-Palin gains grow

It doesn't get much closer than this. Thanks to the Palin Bounce or the Lipstick Lift or whatever you want to call it, the tickets headed by Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama are essentially tied in a hypothetical electoral college count based on the latest statewide polls tabulated by Karl Rove & Co.

McCain now leads by one vote in the electoral college for the first time since early June. He has 227 electoral votes to Obama’s 226 votes, and 85 other votes are classified a tossup.

Florida (27 electoral votes), where McCain campaigned Monday, switched from tossup to McCain in recent days to give the Republican the slimmest of leads. McCain drew closer to the Democrat in both Minnesota (10 EV) and Washington state (11 EV), where he now trails by 5 and 4 points, respectively. That puts both states on the edge of being tossups.

McCain has also expanded his lead in several red states, such as North Carolina (15 EV), where he went from a 5-point lead last week to an 11-point lead now.

As noted in the election commentary at Karl Rove & Co.: "McCain’s lead may be a result of his convention bounce, or it may be a sign of real progress -- only time will tell."

To see a chart showing the weekly electoral vote movements since March, click on the "Read more" line below the map. The study's methodology is also explained there.

-- Andrew Malcolm

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Methodology

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 14 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 1, the average includes all polls conducted between June 15 and July 15.

States within a 3-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as tossups; states outside the 3-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Map and chart published courtesy of Karl Rove & Co.

Comments

[Greg]

I'm in Ohio and I'm voting for McCain/Palin. So is my entire family.

[Steve D.]

Somebody help me out here. Am I the only one that has a hard time believing that the race is this close? I don't mean because I think that Obama should be much further ahead of McCain, considering the GOP is largely responsible for the poor leadership of the past eight years. Setting that aside, what are the odds that this, or ANY presidential election should be a dead heat? It was the the same with Kerry-Bush and Gore-Bush. So I'm supposed to believe that the country is divided almost EXACTLY in half nearly all of the time in recent history. C'mon...really? I mean, what are the odds?

It's hard not to imagine that, since a good fight sells far more papers than a blowout, the major media isn't playing the public at least somewhat by staging the election as reality TV, something to boost ratings by, nursing along the current underdog to help insure a close race.

I'm not a conspiracy nut or anything, it just doesn't seem very likely. Thoughts?

[timothy moriarty]

Dear Friend:

Are you ready yet for the November 4th Elections? How about your friends, family, and neighbors?

More Americans are expected to vote this year than ever before in history, so don’t be left out! Be sure to ask everyone you know the following questions:

Are you registered to vote? If you moved recently, have you updated your voter registration?
Did you apply for an Absentee Ballot? Do you know your state may not require any reason?
Can you find your local Polling Place? Do you know it may have changed from last time?
The answers to these questions -- and all your voting needs -- can be found at www.StateDemocracy.org

[Marcy]

Tabulated by KARL ROVE and CO???
What a JOKE.
Why don't they just say we should cancel the election, since their guy has already won?

THis is getting dirtier and dirtier. Shame on Americans if they buy it. The polls are manipulated already, since they are basically controlled by Republican interests, and they want voters to believe that McCain is winning so that a) they won't bother to vote if they think their vote won't count and b) they can commit fraud and disenfranchisement and people won't realize it.
WAKE UP, America- don't let the election be stolen again!

[Matooso]

There is an undeniable trend in election politics. McCain has turned around every poll in his favor. People are paying attention now, and McCain is moving up in all categories with all people except African American who will vote in lockstep with Obama at about 95-97 percent.
If I'm Obama, I'm thinking I need to do more than say McCain is out of touch. People are not swayed by that kind of silly attack. Perhaps it is Obama who is truly "out of touch."

[PleaseChange]

It's really hard to believe that after all the negative campaigning McCain and company had engaged in, that the American people fall for his BS. The fact that he is willing to do anything necessary, without humility or dignity and get away with it just boggles the mind.

[Stephen Kriz]

With the financial markets in complete turmoil it sure makes me feel good to know that a 72 year old man who doesn't know how to operate a personal computer and admits he doesn't know much about the economy is waiting in the wings to take over the brilliant, articulate man who is currently in charge!

Sheesh! Is this the best this country has to offer?

[Mona]

You are using a map by Karl Rove? you can't be serious!! That man lies and wouldn't know true unbiased research if he were hit over the head with it. seriously, what the heck are you thinking blogging this junk?

[Aycee]

Vote and electoral predictions by by Karl Rove and Co. are biased and not at all reliable. The Bush Administration, aided by Karl Rove promulgated Fear and Scare tactics. It's how Bush and his cronies gained support for invading Iraq, by convincing the American public and Congress that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. Yes, remember that lie? And McCain, has never acknowledged the Iraq war to be unnecessary. McCain would keep us in this war indefinately, never once admitting that it should never have been launched. But no, he doesn't side with Bush most of the time, he's a Maverick, remember?

[bart]

It is hard to fool American people. I believe.
You can promise to rub the rich and give to the poor, but only fools believe.

Obama, the Maxist WILL RUB THE RICH but he will not give the money to the poor, just as he would not give money to his half brother who lives in a hut with 12 dollars a year.........Obama has money to keep his brother to live for a million year, but he would not give him a dime.

you believe he will give money to you??????

[keith]

Obama can't lose. If he does the earth will cease to exist. Therefore no poll or map showing a McCain advantage can be deemed accurate and must be dismissed as pure fantasy. Stop falling for the neo-con, Christian Fundamentalist chicanery LAT.

[WJS]

I wish we could combine Obama's energy and idealism with McCain's know-how and grit. At the end of the day, I'm not 100% certain McCain will push through the kind of dramatic changes we need to stabilise Wall Street, improve Health Care and whatnot. But I'm not remotely convinced that Obama has a real grasp on reality. Washington isn't going to just throw rice in the air and join in singing Kumbaya if the Obama/Biden ticket wins. He's going to have to fight to change Washington, and judging by his sudden change in campaign tactics - he's already jettisoned the "new tone in Washington" promise. So I'm left with some minor adjustments with McCain that I'm pretty sure he can jam down Congress' throats, or pretty much more hot hair with Obama. Neither really addresses what we need.

[mccain]

Mc Cain better not win.
if by any chance he is able to deceive the public all the way to the white house then god bless America.

[jane]

Do the "public telephone polls" averaged and used by this KarlRove&Co poll call cell phones?

(if I'm not mistaken - telephone pollsters ONLY call land lines meaning that it is biased towards older more established populations and one could assume more often than not McCain supporters.)

Can someone verify this?

[Tony]

Let us see, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Which politicians received the most money from this company?

1) Chris Dodd
2) Hillary Clinton
3) Ohh! and yes the agent of change Barack Obama third on the list! John Mcain, he is no. 325th on the list. Wow, I was surprised to hear that the agent of change ( Obama ) is number three on the list. Oh by the way, the 2 former top honchos of this company is now working for his team. Now! that is a change we can really believe in huh! By the way how is it that the media is hssh, hssh about this?

[susan]

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

[eyerate]

Get used to the stupidity of the main media as they are now distrusted by most of us Americans that have seen a racist church, not even 3 reasons why Barrack is able to be president and then he goes and picks Biden the man who is insulting and dull. The media went after the rep VP pick because they had to keep the light off of Biden. He will stick his foot in his mouth, and his ability also is questionable. They both Took way to much money from Freedie Mac and Fannie Mae, while making banks give mortgages to those who could not pay. Help us lord, and look at real politics polls.

[Go,Johnny,Go]

Re: the comments by Marcy, Mona and Aycee. Google the other electoral maps showing current polls. McCain is even further ahead. Kinda deflates your balloon as a right-wing conspiracy, doesn't it?

I believe Rove is being very conservative. No pun intended.

[Mike]

Karl Rove is caught in another lie as the intrade markets say the exact opposite with Obama leading the Electoral College.

[Allan S.]

The Democratic credentials of the bloodsuckers at Fannie Mae, and Freddy Mac, should be a big part of the Palin
message. McCain can make nice toward the DEMS, but Sarah makes a wonderful conservative "connector of the dots". Failure of the financial sector, must be laid at the feet of the $50million, and $26million spiffs to the former "Clintonistas" in these quasi-governmental lending institutions. Talk about need for reform, Dodd, Hilary, and Obama were the top 3 recipients of the political largess! Tell, the story, Sarah...do it girl...America is listening! Your credibility will soar!!!