The poll picture of the Barack Obama/John McCain race? Static

A spate of new national polls in recent days add up to one bottom line: For all the travel miles racked up by both presidential campaigns, for all the shifting of positions by the candidates and the sound and fury emanating from each camp, the race has remained essentially static over the summer.

A new Time poll shows Barack Obama ahead of John McCain, 46% to 41%; the five-percentage-point margin was exactly the gap between the two in a survey commissioned by the magazine back in June.

A Politico.com piece Wednesday by David Paul Kuhn noted that on Sunday, Aug. 3, the average of national polling on RealClearPolitics.com "had 46.6% of the public supporting Obama, putting him narrowly ahead of McCain. Exactly two months earlier, on June 3, that same average had Obama at the exact same level of support — 46.6%."

The obvious question raised by the various results, and discussed last week here in The Ticket, is why Obama hasn't staked out a firmer advantage, given the plethora of trends strongly tilting toward the Democratic Party. Why, in particular, can't he crack the 50% mark?

CNN and MSNBC earlier this week examined Obama's seeming underperformance, and it's the thrust of Kuhn's article.

Clearly, Obama still has his work cut out for him (though, as a new Pew Research Center poll discovered, the upcoming break he's taking from the spotlight is probably a smart move).

But another question sparked by the polls is this: Why has McCain so rarely gotten above 45% and, for the most part, consistently scored just below that level?

Aside from the relative handful of voters who are eyeing Ralph Nader or Bob Barr, it just may be that the 10% undecideds are in no hurry to do so -- thus, no discernible bump for either Obama or McCain.

And why should those voters be in a hurry? They've not yet had a chance to evaluate the key personnel move each major-party contender must make: choosing a running mate. They've yet to hear the nomination acceptance speeches. And they've yet to see Obama and McCain square off on a debate stage.

To us, all this adds up to a race that may remain static until the stretch run.

-- Don Frederick 

Comments

[COL. A.M.Khajawall [Ret]]

Dear American Citizens and the Press

As a concerned citizen, I consider it is my duty to bring following message to you all.

"We the citizens of the United States of America have the ultimate responsibility to elect the " Right Candidate" to lead our nation, out of our huge present and future internal and external challenges as well as opportunities. This is to prevent depression and isolation in-spite of being the only superpower in the world morally, democratically, economically, and militarily.

We need to consider the "critical qualities and characteristics" of our presumptive presidential nominees at the time we vote.

In my personal and professional opinion the critical considerations are as under:

1. Calm, cool, and collected " temper " [ Presidential Temperament ].
2. Sound and sustained "Judgment and Caliber".
3. "Thought-fullness and togetherness" of purpose and positions.
4. Minimum "ex-poser and exploitation" around "Washington and Washington insiders".
5. Renewed " Vigor and Vision " for our Great-grand Nation.
6. Foreign policy based on " American Values, Virtuous, Vastness".

Stay informed, stay involved, and stay engaged. Do not allow some partisan media, pundits, pollsters, and perpetual political opinion makers effect your vote in the wrong direction.

Don't be effected and duped by "Psychological Terrorism" that is directed at common American people without their full consent and awareness.

Long live U.S.A and its diverse but democratic people.

Col. A.M. Khajawall [Ret] MD., ABFM., ABDA.
Colonel, USAR/MC Combat Stress Control[Ret], Disabled American Veteran and Iraq Freedom team.

PS: The nation can not afford temperamental and aging McCain as our next president.

[fred]

hahahahahaha. 46 to 41. you have got to be kidding me right? that poll adds up to 87 percent!!!! that is the funniest thing that i have ever heard. guess who the 13% of "independents" are voting for. go ahead guess. give up? mccain. so just go ahead and change that number to 46 to 54 for mccain. or i'll give you 2% and it is 48 to 52. whatever the case, obama is a disaster candidate and is going to lose by such a landslide, and no matter how much the media tries to keep it close by picking and choosing the poll numbers; you cant hide the truth. hahahahahaha. i'll be laughing on this for the next 90 days.

[Apartment Guy]

I think one of the biggest problems with the Obama campaign is that he will be seen as a "fad." It was cool to support Obama when he was an underdog running against Senator Clinton. Now he's talked about in the Media as the favorite to win the election. What was once cool and different is now lame and conforming.

I imagine this sort of "cooling off" for Obama will actually help him a lot in the end. Obama needs to lose the Jesus comparison well before we vote in November.

[Patrick J. Kiger]

According to an analysis by an Emory University poly-sci professor, Obama has consistently maintained a 5 percent lead in national non-tracking polls since May.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=AIA2008072402

[RON]

Here is another example of the media coverage for Obama " Why can't he ? I'll tel you why..... It's because Republicans will stand by their man no matter how pathetic he is ?

[dave]

polls might plummet and converge to zero the minute people realize that both candidates currently presented as the presumptive nominees, do not even legally qualify, that the legitimate and qualified candidates have been artificially suppressed with the 'help' of the media, and that to support any of the illegal candidates will be a vote against the constitution, and against america.

[Dan]

The McCain team has been hammering Obama with negative advertising smears. Obama isn't higher in the polls because his team has so far not returned the volleys. Taking the high-road as been a good strategy, but it is also a dangerous one and unless Obama fights back, he risks losing the election.

[Mitchell Aboulafia]

I am pretty tired of hearing from many members of the MSM how something must be wrong with Obama's campaign because he is not way ahead in the polls. This frame has been constructed by the Republicans with the MSM buying in and vice versa. (McCain says that he is surprised that he is doing as well as he is in the polls.)

Obama is doing just fine given all of the factors in the contest. Let's wait until after the conventions when people are paying closer attention. (Thank you Don for mentioning that the question can be framed in terms of why McCain isn't doing better. Amazing how few times this gets asked in the MSM.)

"Media Hype and Election Polls (or the sky is falling)"
http://msa4.wordpress.com/

[thebob.bob]

"The obvious question raised by the various results" is why is the Press jumping all over things when nothing is happening. It's summer. Time to chill. There's plenty of time for the Republican Hate/Lie and Smear machines to try and distract America from the disaster they've given us.

[Mike]

Let us remember when we go to the polls in November who Obama tried to please during his campaign efforts---he seems to be more concerned with being a "citizen of the world" during his speech to Germans than representing the ideals of americans (which ironically are the ones who will ultimately bring him to the world stage).

[Gerald]

Recently in sworn testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, a US government official testified about a secret plan involving Iran which involved what is called an EMP attack. The same government officials testified that if that attack were to be carried out, that tens of millions would die. A partial list of other US and foreign newspapers who carried excerpts from the testimony is listed on the following website along with additional information regarding this planned, secret attack. http://www.harvybing.com
All US citizens should be concerned about a plan devised to carry out such a secret attack. It was also revealed that the country that is the target of the planned attack has virtually NO DEFENSE against this type of attack. It was noted that millions upon millions would die!
http://www.harvybing.com
It was revealed that the two cities which would bear the brunt of the damage in such an attack would be New Your and Los Angeles

[Joe]

You want endless war? Six dollar per gallon gas? Tens of thousands of political prisoners deposited in military prison camps throughout the U.S.? Fine, then vote for McCain.

So what about Obama? Well, here's another question for you all - When "lofty rhetoric" is put into action, what is it then?

Listen: Don't allow yourself be swayed by the vocalizations of corporate greed and all the politically motivated distortions issued forth from the McCain camp. We all deserve better than this! And we deserve far-and-away better than the slow motion decay of the environment, our economy, our military, the U.S. Constitution and of our reputation around the world.

It's clear as a bell for anyone with eyes to see, and ears to hear. This current administration is little more than a con-job. Certainly Ron Suskind’s new book The Way of the World puts this bit of trivia beyond a shadow of a doubt. Make no mistake - If McCain is elected he will be duty-bound to take us down the same corrosive path, but at ever increasing speeds.

On the upside, thanks to what remains of our democratic system, interference from the Judiciary (Supreme Court) notwithstanding, our fate may now be truly in our own hands. We owe a tide of positive change to ourselves and to our children. Let's break through the lies and put some real leadership on capitol hill this time. Then let's continue to make history, a history that every last one of us can be extremely proud of.

[dave]

propaganda sites of the type of one advertised a few posts above are not helpful. it is sad though to see that some people obviously would not hesitate to see not only thousands, but millions of people killed in their own country, if they think it furthers their private deluded agenda.