The Ticket Exclusive: National electoral map by state polls

Today, The Ticket begins regular publication of the now-famous national electoral maps developed by Karl Rove, former chief political strategist for governor and then President George W. Bush and now a Fox News contributor.

Rove, who's famous for attention to such detail during his working political days, regularly uses these maps on the air to illustrate the shifting sands of the evolving presidential race between Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama.

Each week, we'll be linking back to previous weeks' maps, so Ticket readers can compare the changes from now through Nov. 4. Rove's map methodology is explained on the jump, reached by clicking the "Read More" line below.

--Andrew Malcolm

National Electoral Map reprinted by permission of KarlRove&CO.

Map Methodology

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between June 15 and July 15. States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There are no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (Internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

Comments

[Vince]

I don't see how they got NH as a tossup and IN as a McCain. From all of the polls I can see, IN is a tossup and NH is Obama.

[victor knopp]

how about this for a bumper sticker,,electionjack 08,,,,maybe that TALENTED,ludicris can rap about stealing from old white laides,and putting old white men in wheelchairs,,only tratiors to our country could even consider him a real candidate,yea iam talking to all you over educated morons,if you like sosolisim better iam sure you would be welcome in canada or europe,but you know when you stop crying you will come back on the first plane,first class of course

[jeff]

I see that most of the south and midwest will vote republican and most of the west and northeast democrat. What is the deal with that, and can't we just have a north and a south again? It seems as though we really do have two countries stuck together and maybe they should take a break for a while and reevaluate...
Jeff
Kingston, NY

[VJ Machiavelli]

By the time Denver rolls around the map will be a solid sea of "RED", and the Democ"rates" will be cutting their wrists.

They have all taken there seats on 'APPEASEMENT ONE". AND "WITHDRAWAL TWO" heading for a crash landing in November.

VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com

[Susan]

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The National Popular Vote bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

[JeffRD]

I wonder if Karl Rove flipped a coin to figure out whose states would get the "+" designation and whose would get the "-".

[dave]

'i never saw a purple cow; i never hope to see one;
but I can tell you anyhow; i'd rather see than be one!'
- gelett burgess

there are less crude election maps, less polarized and more detailed, with party colors represented in shades of purple, varying from red to blue.
but anyhow: when the people look for choices, they've already been made for them. and those not wanted by the powerful - anyone who'll tell the truth, resist corruption, and offer real solutions - has been tabooed untouchable. so many people, in mortal fear of the legitimate and qualified candidates they've been misled to mistake for 'moonbats' and 'barking loons' - many will not be able to see the truth of their message, and the lies told by others.
so some will dream of a blue donkey, and others hope for a red elephant to save them, and many fail to see they'll fall again, for the same deceitful purple cow.
only when people stop to vote for political parties, or the interests of corporations and cartels, and banking dynasties, but reserve their vote for someone who will represent their own vital interests, and is accountable to them - only then can they reclaim their country, and see their rights and liberties restored.
to implement constitutional principles and values in government and politics, will guarantee true and lasting benefits for everyone.
this can best be done, by people of wisdom and integrity, such as RON PAUL.

[JR Terrell]

Hey, remember when y'all are scratching your heads about the South's vote come November, that it didn't vote for Lincoln either. All McCain has to do is show up and be white.