Ticket national electoral map: McCain trimming Obama's lead

Yes, we know we're late with last week's national electoral map. It's a long story. But here it is anyway, showing that Sen. John McCain continued to gain ground on Sen. Barack Obama in national polls. (See also how the experience factor is dramatically boosting McCain in today's new L.A. Times Poll here too into a virtual dead heat with Obama).

Now, state polls are beginning to show the same closing trend. According to this electoral map produced by Rove&Co., the Arizona senator gained 11 electoral votes in the week before last, including votes gained by picking up Missouri from the toss-up column.

McCain also closed where Obama still leads, in Wisconsin, and turned West Virginia into a dead heat. Obama's hypothetical national lead continues at 260 electoral votes to McCain's 194.

For previous weeks' charts, click on the Read more line and follow the chart. The methodology is also published down there.

Our previous charts are also available by clicking on the Electoral College or Electoral Map lines in the subject cloud in the right-hand column here.

-- Andrew Malcolm

Map reproduced by permission of Rove&Co.

METHODOLOGY

For each state, the map uses the average of all public telephone polls (internet polls are not included in the average) taken within 30 days of the most recent poll available in each state.

For example, if the most recent poll in Montana was taken on July 15, the average includes all polls conducted between June 15 and July 15.

States within a three-point lead for McCain or Obama are classified as toss-ups; states outside the three-point lead are allocated to the respective candidate.

There is no polling data available for the District of Columbia, but its three electoral votes are allocated to Obama.

Comments

[benh57]

I think you mean Virginia is a dead heat, not West Virginia.

I WISH WV was a dead heat. :P

[dave]

'i never saw a purple cow; i never hope to see one;
but I can tell you anyhow; i'd rather see than be one!'
- gelett burgess

there are less crude election maps, less polarized and more detailed, with party colors represented in shades of purple, varying from red to blue.
but anyhow: when the people look for choices, they've already been made for them. and those not wanted by the powerful - anyone who'll tell the truth, resist corruption, and offer real solutions - has been tabooed untouchable. so many people, in mortal fear of the legitimate and qualified candidates they've been misled to mistake for 'moonbats' and 'barking loons' - many will not be able to see the truth of their message, and the lies told by others.
so some will dream of a blue donkey, and others hope for a red elephant to save them, and many fail to see they'll fall again, for the same deceitful purple cow.
only when people stop to vote for political parties, or the interests of corporations and cartels, and banking dynasties, but reserve their vote for someone who will represent their own vital interests, and is accountable to them - only then can they reclaim their country, and see their rights and liberties restored.
to implement constitutional principles and values in government and politics, will guarantee true and lasting benefits for everyone.
this can best be done, by people of wisdom and integrity, such as RON PAUL.

[Dr. Dave]

It's polls, focus groups and marketers that are determining what comes out of Obama's mouth. That's the reason for all the flip flops on Wright, Iraq, off-shore drilling, Russia/Georgia etc. etc. .......

Essentially McCain is right when he says Obama chooses custom made policies for different segments of the electorate to get in power. Obama’s initial thrust came from the "grassroots" far far left Cindy Sheehans who were rabidly anti-Bush & anti-war (any war). It was a very appealing message for "cool" anti-authoritarian college students looking to recreate their own "60s". That message plus his celebrity appeal bowled over left leaning Hollywood, the entire entertainment industry and many in the mainstream media and of course Oprah, who catapulted Obama to Rock Start Status. Of course, he changed his anti-war position and became pro-war in Afghanistan to show his commander-in-chiefness for the Jane & Joe America sitting in his focus groups.

More and more American's are not buying Obama’s disingenuous positions of the day. Life is way too dangerous in the 21st century. Our country is in the middle of 3 wars (Iraq-Afghanistan-terror) Iran is going nuclear and Europe is under the ballistic missiles of Putin’s neo-Soviets. Such a situation cannot be trusted to any junior- 1st term senator let alone a standard operating politician who got his experience being a "community organizer" and cog in the Chicago Political Machine.

[susan]

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

[Lynn]

I read from your article that the LA Times believes that Mc Cain's attacks are working. Maybe, but Mc Cain hasn't done that much. What slight criticism Mc Cain used, many people already shared and were wondering when it was going to be stated by the press. Mc Cain himself didn't do that much but he did finally put it in the news. Mc Cain is not a perfect candidate, but there is nothing which really makes clear that Obama is ready to be president. In fact his clear ambition to be president despite his lack of knowledge and experience makes it clear he should not be president. I am a liberal democrat but will work for the defeat of Senator Obama and not support the Democrat Party on this one. The press seems to miss that this isn't about Republican or Democrat especially when the party is divided.

[VJ Machiavelli]

You better get a different map maker, NY McCain is down only 8 points. The latest Siena poll has it Obama 47 McCain 39 McCain has gained 5 points on Obama from the last poll.

To save on fuel Nancy will use her “Hot Air” to fill it up.
VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com
ps. Keep your eye on the investigation of Schumers “BRAIN”Hank Morris and how he made 25 Million Dollars, Yes that is 25 Million Dollars. For more info “GOOGLE” Hank Morris.

[dave]

Q: 'how come life is so important in the nine months before birth, but then we sort of forget about the importance, we're not worried about whether that baby lives in poverty once he or she is born?'
- birch bayh

A: 'because all that even the most radical cradle-to-grave collectivists ever care about, most of the time, is not the interests of the people, but their own profit, power and control sucked off the people; and because their own sense of entitlement makes them think of the people as of their chattel, and cattle to feed, with leftovers from the wealth stolen from them, and sanctimoniously redistributed as social programs, charities and welfare. why take away people's rights and freedom, and stifle enterprise, why steal their bread, to throw them crumbs?'
- dave

the election of the president by national popular vote, as promoted by collectivists birch bayh (in), john anderson (il), tom campbell (ca) and others, would be the end of the american republic. it would, under pretext of empowerment, further disenfranchise the people, and transfer the powers now remaining at state level (after already having stripped the districts and local levels of their influence) to the federal government, practically reducing presidential elections, then by national popular vote, to an empty ritual or 'democratic' fig leaf, as typically seen in many de facto dictatorships, some even named 'people's republic' and the like. there would not be anything left in terms of checks and balances to counter the random nomination of any candidates by the ruling establishment. in reality, there wouldn't even be the least of democratic choice. a popular vote for either of two candidates selected and controlled by the same ruling establishment, and running for the same agenda, is worthless. there would be no accountability whatsoever. to contend that such a thing would be the constitutional thing to do, either in the interest of the people or the states, as bayh suggests, 'it's refreshing to know states have the ability under the constitution to step up and create the sensible solution americans have long been supporting,' is a brazen-faced lie. it would make constitutional principles an outmoded concept and put the constitution out of practical use altogether. there would not be much left to distinguish america from china. on the contrary, the sensible thing to do for the people to regain control over their government, is to strengthen power on state and local levels. to select presidential electors by congressional districts, as suggested by many thoughtful people, who do not want to lose their country to tyranny, and exchange liberty for slavery, seems to be a good start. also, it might be helpful to revise illegally introduced amendments to the constitution such as the 14th amendment, and to get rid of some of the more notorious 'progressive era' amendments, the 16th amendment authorizing income tax; and the 17th amendment, replacing article I, section 3 of the constitution to the extent that it provides for the direct election of senators by the people of a state rather than their election or appointment by a state legislature. the election of state senators by popular vote, has practically further shifted the balance of power from the states to the federal government. it might also generally be a good idea to inform people how and why, presidential elections are different from a beauty queen contest.
RON PAUL is the highly qualified, truthful and sincerely caring, constitutional republican candidate to consistently defend liberty, and the principles and values of the constitution, to bring about integrity, prosperity and peace.