John McCain's own fatigue problem: Exurban voters

Our colleague Peter Wallsten has an interesting piece in the paper today looking at exurban voters in Florida -- the people who brought you President George W. Bush (with some help from those nine folks in black robes in D.C.). These are voters who are feeling the economic squeeze more than most -- a lot of young families with long commutes and relatively new mortgages on houses dropping in value.

For most of them, Georgia is the state to the north. And as Wallsten reports, Democratic strategists aren't thinking they can win in these areas, which Karl Rove correctly perceived as a rich vein for Republicans. But the Democrats believe they can make some inroads, eroding what have been large margins for Republican candidates.

Why? Essentially, exurban voter fatigue with the Bush Administration, which voters link to the doubling of their commuter costs and to the overgrown yards of the foreclosed-on houses on their streets (not to mention the "there but for the grace of God" fears of their own precarious finances).

Wallsten's money quote from Anna Rodriguez, 33, in Pasco County, near Tampa: "This is the first election I ever actually looked at someone else other than the Republican candidate... I've had enough with the Republican economics."

As Wallsten writes:

Already, Democrats have shown improvement at the ballot box. A study to be published soon by Brookings, a centrist think tank, found that Democrats increased their vote share in the exurban counties from 40% in the 2004 presidential race to 44% in the 2006 congressional elections, just after housing prices began to fall and gas prices began to climb.

Party strategists are studying the 2006 Senate races in three presidential battlegrounds -- Virginia, Missouri and Colorado -- to learn how themes focused on quality-of-life issues, such as traffic and infrastructure, helped Democrats improve and even win some exurban counties.

"They ran as pragmatists, offering to solve the problems of exurbanites," said Robert Lang, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech. "If Obama runs a similar race or has similar appeal in those exurbs, that's the road to the White House."

That helps explain why Barack Obama has been buying so much air time in Florida -- and makes it all the more perplexing that John McCain has largely ignored the state.

-- Scott Martelle

Photo by Robert Azmitia / For The Times

Comments

[Bob]

Still harping on that old lie about how Bush "stole" the election? Typical that reality never seems to penetrate the thick skulls of your kind.

[Gordon Goheen]

What a crock....I see why no one reads your rag anymore.

[EstebanD]

Stop missinforming and making missleading inuendos.
CHECK YOUR FACTS!
When you write : "(with some help from those nine folks in black robes in D.C.)" Is obvious that your remark is implying that Supreme Court judges where accomplices of Bush and the Republican party. The facts is that the majority of justices (7–2) agree that recount violates Constitution's equal protection and due process guarantees, since counting standards varied among counties.

[Elizabeth]

Paragraph 1............I am so tired of hearing that Bush did not win the election and got into office through the court...........he got the most votes in Florida~! What more do you want? Enough already with 2000 and 2004, move on! Obama will be the next CIC and he will do just fine, not great probably, but he'll be fine. He'll do his time and move on and it's my guess, we won't be any better off or worse off than we are now. The congress is the thing we need to fixate on, not the presidency!

[Kevin Goldman]

Scott Martelle doesnt even wait past the first sentance to reveal his painful biases that contaminate any reasonable discussion of voters who are angry about the current administration. When you call the voters of Florida "the people who brought you George Bush" you are ignoring the other 50 million people who voted for him. When you made snide remarks about the Supreme Court ruling "with some help from those nine folks in black robes in D.C." you dismiss any pretense of impartiality. I would like to remind Mr. Martelle of this fact, however personally painful to him it may be. George Bush was not only ahead of every single count done during the election, but also won the state of Florida in an independant count sponsered by the New York Times and Miami Dade Herald. By their count Mr. Bush won by 537 votes, and I don't think even Mr. Martelle could call either of those organziations conservative papers.

[blip]

I am glad that people are getting tired of the same old Republican snake-oil.

I flipped from GOP to Independent when Bush took the nomination. McCain was my guy, and I knew that Bush would disappoint, so I voted reform party. I voted independent in 2004.

But now that I see what McCain is offering and what he is willing to do to get elected... and I will work as hard as I can to get a Democrat into office this time.

I just can't stand watching my neighbors lose their homes, all their belongings stacked by the curb, and everyone waiting to see if they are going to be next. No more Republicans in Washington!

I like Republican ideals in many respects. I like them on an individual level. But they are too caught up in their own ideology and identity to see and respond to the world as it is. And, I am finally realizing that it is much too dangerous.

[Jerry Thomson]

I am so very tired of watching regular americans vote against their own best interests. It is really sad. A vote for any republican is a vote to maintain the 1% of wealthiest americans Wallets', War policies, Wire tapping, Lies, Deception and HIGH gas prices that benefit - GUESS WHO?

HELLO?! PLEASE WAKE UP and vote for someone who will have All of our best interests at heart. One-issue voters should really take at good look at themselves this cycle, And grow up.

[Jean]

For decades people in FL voted against their economics interests by selecting the GOP over the Democrate. They are finally wake up and smell the coffee when they cannot feed their families and have difficulty come up with basic social needs.

[Sonia Kermaz]

The people who voted for Bush got exactly what they deserved. The real tragedy is that they've dragged most of rest down with them. Neither Obama nor the Democrats can pull the USA out of it's petronomic free fall but a good horse might.

[Mud]

I switched from a long-time registered Democrat to Republican.

Do I agree with all Republican policies? No. Who agrees with everything all the time?

But, I disagree with MORE of the Democrat policies these days.

This is not the Democratic party that I joined. It has been taken over by such extremists that it is difficult to recognize it anymore.

The presumed Democrat nominee for president is so far left, I worry for the country. Obama's sweet-talk is empty rhetoric.

Talk about snake oil!

[Alfa Romeo]

> I am so very tired of watching regular americans vote against their own best interests. ... A vote for any republican is a vote to maintain the 1% of wealthiest americans

Sigh! A vote for either party simply means you are picking some special interests. Big corporations or big unions. Big oil or trial lawyers. Lobbyists for Republic or Georgia or Columbia.
Ron Paul was one hope to shake up things and tighten the purse strings. Now that's gone too. Maybe Ralph Nader is the least worst choice now.

[lmh]

I switched from Democrat to Republican. Why is it I never read about disillusioned Democrats switching parties?