Is race the drag on Barack Obama's poll numbers?

As more and more attention is paid to Barack Obama's failure to stake out a solid, sustained poll lead in the presidential race (as of Sunday, the Gallup daily tracking survey pegged the contest a flat-out tie), more and more attention focuses on the often unspoken -- race -- as a key factor.

In a recent New York magazine piece, John Heilemann wrote:

"Call me crazy, but isn’t it possible, just possible, that Obama’s lead is being inhibited by the fact that he is, you know, black? ... The desire to ignore the elephant in the room is easy to understand, but Obama will not have that luxury."

David Paul Kuhn, examining the same dynamic at Politico.com., wrote:

"Shanto Iyengar, a Stanford University political scientist, notes that several political forecasting models today predict the Democratic candidate winning a clear majority of the vote, a threshold that has thus far escaped Obama in polling. But he adds that those predictions are for a generic Democrat under 'normal circumstances' in a year where the Republican Party is in dire straits."

“ 'The real question is: Why is Obama, then, underperforming?' Iyengar added. 'There is something about Obama that is causing something of drag.' Iyengar believes that something is Obama’s race."

None of this will come as any surprise to Mary Bruns, a 65-year-old grassroots worker for Obama in Nevada who, as The Times' Seema Mehta reports, was among those attending an appearance Sunday by the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee in Reno.

Bruns confided to Mehta that comments she hears as she goes door-to-door on Obama's behalf has her worried that simple, old-fashioned prejudice will derail Obama's presidential bid.

Older people in particular, she says, make comments such as, "We can't vote a black person in there; they'll think they rule the world."

Wrote Mehta:

"If people will say that to her face, the retired nurse wonders what they say behind closed doors. 'I think a certain segment of the American population is just ignorant,' she said. 'I don't give them the time of day.'"

Bruns told Mehta she is pinning her hopes on a large turnout of young voters, such as her son, who switched his registration from Republican to Democrat to support Obama.

“I have a great faith in the young people; they’re color blind,” she said.

-- Don Frederick

Comments

[TheDiplomat]

We all knew that his mixed race will be a problem. That is what makes the fight worth fighting.

[Anne]

Yes young people are color blind, but they also lack wisdom and experience. Your whole major premise is that Obama is lacking in the polls because he is black---that is false. He is lacking in the polls because he lacks character and truthfulness. He has sworn on legal documents that he has never gone by another name. This is not true. He lived in Indonesia by another name Barry Sorento and the legal forms at the Catholic Church list him as an Indonesia citizenship. If the Catholic Church has falsified this paperwork then it should be told to the public. Many Americans are just learning about all of this and the Obama Campaign is not willing to shed any transparency on this issue. They are hoping with all the money and hype that it will be lost. Obama seems bent on only showing the images of his life that will further his career. I do not a man as President that deliberately lies and deceives his people, and I am a Democrat that wonders why the Democratic Party continue to conceal this information. America should know where Mr. Obama's allegiance will stand during times of difficulties.

[Jeff B]

Shame on the LA Times for following the low road. It is the pop media that wants to drag race back into this campaign, to sell more papers. It's disgusting, and you ought to stop it. Just because others do it, do you have to follow?

[Larry]

Of course race is a drag on the Messiah's campaign. Remember Reverend Wright, Obama's 20-year mentor and spiritual advisor? The LA Times and other "old media" would have you beleive that was all a mistake and you should forget about it. Obama didn't have a clue about all of tghose racist and bigoted sermons that Wright preached from Obama's church pulpit. Obama is a member of the church of hate and is no diffent than David dukes or any racist.
Of course race is a drag on his campaign. Considering the company he has kept for twenty years, his father's beleifs, his mothers activism, his friendship with terrorists, and Reverend Wright - what did you expect LA Times?

[Ron Carlson]

I think race has very little to do with Obama's lack of a big lead.

Obama doesn't have a big lead because a lot of people see that he is an arrogant flip flop faker and is dangerously ignorant.

[Charlie]

There are, no doubt, a number of white racists in this country who would not vote for a black person, no matter how capable he/she was. They are idiots, pure and simple. However, I don't think the reason that Barack Obama is slipping in the polls is due to his race. The reason he is slipping in the polls is that the citizens of this country are finally coming around to the conclusion that this man does not know what he is doing.

Give me a black candidate who is capable and trustworthy, and you will get my vote and most other people's votes as well.

On a related note, I have to question the double standard of blacks (and, yes, some whites) voting for Barack only because he is black. To me the persons who do this are being racist. No?

[DB]

I guess the article could just as well have said this -

As more and more attention is paid to John McCain's failure to stake out a solid, sustained poll lead in the presidential race (as of Sunday, the Gallup daily tracking survey pegged the contest a flat-out tie), more and more attention focuses on the often unspoken -- age -- as a key factor.

In a recent New York magazine piece, John Doe wrote:

"Call me crazy, but isn’t it possible, just possible, that McCain's lead is being inhibited by the fact that he is, you know, old? ... The desire to ignore the elephant in the room is easy to understand, but McCain will not have that luxury."

I could go on. The point is there are always factors that certain people are prejudiced against. It's not justified but it has always happened and it always will.

Nevertheless, it has already begun--the blaming of racism if Obama winds up losing in the upcoming race. It will be an easy excuse, but it will be overly simplistic, and it ignores Obama's radical positions and his own strong connections to black racists among many other factors.

[Bob]

How about the fact that Obama betrayed the liberal left that helped him win against Hillary? After flip-flopping on FISA, the death penalty, offshore drilling, and gun control, what else can he do? It didn't help that he was so flippantly dismissive of those he alienated with his flip-flopping. I think his flip-flops manage to attract about the same number of new supporters as those he loses, keeping his numbers relatively flat.

[pekopper]

It is so obvious that race as a factor it is exploited by the thinly veiled racists that swarm our airwaves like cockroaches every day. We have 24/7 facist propaganda radio that is the daily fodder for weak minds. You don't have to point out Obama is Black to have the fascists associate him with Muslims, or Black Nationalists, or an un-american etc..., therefore, exploiting his race. We live in a Country of simplistic and overfed bigots that are daily exploited by the facist reptiles in the media and their partners in the Right-Wing Church. What Obama needs to do is stop trying to appeal to racist fearmongers, corporate control freaks, and the simpletons out thre, and start paying more attention to the millions and millions out here who are waiting for a true populist, and Democrat that isn't a phoney. He wants to have it both ways. He wants to appeal to members of some clown church, whose living in dark ages. He wants to appeal to the blue dog racists whites. Get passionate Obama. Get passionate with the millions who are looking for real change, and your message will resonate for the next 50 years.

[GM]

Obama's failure to stake out a solid, sustained poll lead in the presidential race is probably more likely the direct result of his failure to stake out a solid, sustained position on the issues.

He's all over the place. He's for NAFTA, he's against NAFTA, he's for campaign finance reform, he's against campaign finance reform, he's for FISA, he's against FISA - the list goes on ad infinitum.

Given the fact that Obama is largely an unknown quantity, with no published work, no federal experience and a number of arguably dubious associations, this "flip-flopping" projects an uncertainty that suggests the demands of the presidency are, to use his own words, "above his pay grade."

His race is irrelevant.

[coakl]

We just had eight years with an inexperienced amateur in the White House. Obama is another inexperienced amateur. Do you want a repeat performance? This is why people are having second thoughts about him.

[GEAH]

Could it be he's...inexperienced, and people are realizing that?

And young voters? They're inexperienced, too, so they can relate quite well to Sen. Obama.

[Aaron Truitt]

The elephant in the room is Obama's lack of experience in these troubled times, and it's been well noted. While the mass media seems to be working overtime to exploit the possibility of white racism in this race, it probably plays a very minor role, like any kind of marginalized bias. As we are such a youth oriented culture a more significant factor might be the extent of irrational age discrimination against McCain.

Many US citizens are not so quick to embrace the promises of change from a severely untested candidate. In fact it's more likely that race has contributed far more to his success. Between white guilt and mobilized minority interest, Obama has reaped the fruits of anti-white racism. I have yet to see the poll numbers of minority support of Obama - I'm sure they exist, I just can't find them anywhere.

In the end I have to suspect that the Liberal media is attacking a historically sensitive area among conservatives, that they are too intolerant of minorities, to browbeat them into support of Obama because he's black.

[Chad Woodburn]

Or instead of race, could it just possibly be that Obama is the most liberal candidate the Democrats have fielded so far? Oh, of course not. We all know that everyone that doesn't vote for him is a racist, and that his ideology and policies have nothing to do with it. Riiiight.....

To prove the racist angle, you would have to first show that there are people who agree with him and would otherwise vote for him if he were white (or brown, or whatever). I seriously doubt that you can find any significant number of people who actually agree with his positions but who won't vote for him.

[Jeffs Id]

Perhaps the problem is that Americans in general don't particularly believe in socialism? Keep pushing it though, LA Times --The young and inexperienced are definitely falling for your happy "let us take care of you" message.

[pat]

So BO isnt doing well. And because he is such a bad candidate the Dems put up. it must be because he is a black man. Could it be he is really not the perfect candidate and was annointed a little early. This man has many bigger issues than simply being a black man. Maybe it has something to do with him being a socialist in disguise.

[Shelby Rancher]

Of course race is an issue, but the fact that his name has Muslim connections plus the fact that he is of ill-gotten lineage plus the fact that he does not have any track record on foreign policy makes him the joker in the funny suit in American Politics. Just be glad the idiotic Republicans did not nominate a good candidate or this election would already be over. The only thing making it interesting is the fact that nobody likes McCain either. Time for choice C- none of the above- start over and get someone the whole country can get behind. The majority of Americans don't like either of these two idiots!

[Albert Krause]

Mr. Heilemann wails: "Call me crazy, but isn't it possible, just possible, that Obama's lead is being inhibited by the fact that he is, you know, black?

Only if by "black" you mean "unqualified, socialist, empty suit, political hack".

The liberals are having buyer's remorse and hiding behind the worn-out excuse of "Racism!"

[tiddle]

Don't kid yourself, and to find excuses for Obama's failure. He's unable to pull ahead, not primarily because he's black but because he's just such a weaker candidate compared to McCain (and yes, to Clinton too).

Black or otherwise, Obama will lose. He has no originality (except slogans). He doesn't have principles, and flip-flops whenever he sees fit. He's good at plagiarism though - I'll give him that. I'm so sick of him.

Me and all those I know are going all out for McCain. Go Florida.

[Big Denali]

This is a really sad story. People are not voting for Obama because he's black. This is how the left will paint it when he loses. Maybe it's because the guy has ultra left wing/socialist ideas. Maybe it's because he doesn't put America's interests ahead of the rest of the world. Maybe it's because he has associated with extremely questionable people in the past. Maybe it's because his wife has said that America is a mean country. Maybe it's because he believes America is broken and the people are bitter. Maybe it's because he would rather debate situations like the Russia Georgia conflict, while a US ally gets invaded, rather than take a stand. Maybe it's because he refuses to admit when he's wrong, the surge in Iraq has not worked. Maybe it's because he says there are 57 states. Maybe it's because he doesn't want any to say his middle name. Maybe it's because his campaign like to remind us that we are racists.

[Steve B]

Race may play a small role in Obama's numbers, but his inexperience and positions are the reasons he has not created more separation from McCain.

Russia's saber-rattling and Obama's response have cast a harsh light on Obama's inexperience. Putin would play him like a fish. In foreign affairs the President wears two hats - chief diplomat and Commander-in-Chief of the military. Obama might be able to grow into the first but he has no aptitude for the second. And it's doubtful if he knows which hat to wear in any given circumstance.

Also, on any number of issues such as off-shore drilling, taxes, etc., Obama has had to moderate his positions. This leads people to believe that he is either a) indecisive, b) uneducated about the issues, or c) saying whatever he needs to say to get elected. None of these build confidence in him as a candidate.

It's unfortunate that there are still racists in our country, but using racism as a tool to deflect attention away from Obama's failings is just as wrong. The Russians call this "maskirova", but they would probably do it much more effectively.

[Ted Lee]

Are you kidding me? This passes for journalism? Is race a drag on his campaign? Please. The man has 9 out of 10 African Americans voting for him, and many are basing that solely on the color of his skin.

I'd say John McCain being white is a bigger drag on McCains campaign that Obama's being black is a drag on his. But of course, it is much easier to cry racism when you are losing than to admit you are out of tune with voters.

[ronski]

It's the ultra liberal socialism, stupid! THAT'S the elephant in the room! I wanted Colin Powell to be prez instead of Bush, but no way will I vote for a left-wing nut like Obama.

[Doug]

with the Obama crowd it's beginning to seem that there's always a handy excuse for each of his failings. Obama just doesn't stand for much and maybe the American public is finally catching on.

[MICHAEL]

Since Obama’s refusal to accept McCain’s invitation for town hall debates; Obama’s problem is not because he’s Black but because he’s Yellow! And after Saturday night’s performance, it’s understandable why he wouldn’t accept. LOL