Experience a key John McCain advantage in new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll

When last we had a L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll to peruse, the result that stood out (aside from Barack Obama's 12-percentage point lead over John McCain in a head-to-head match-up) was what we termed the "passion gap" -- a marked difference in enthusiasm levels that favored the Democrat in the June survey.

The new, just-released poll not only shows the race between the two dramatically tightening -- into a virtual dead heat, with Obama leading in the head-to-head by only 2 percentage points -- but it also identifies a distinct McCain asset: a huge advantage on the question of experience.

The survey of almost 1,250 registered voters showed that the vast majority have no doubt McCain is qualified for the White House. Asked if the Republican had the right experience to be president, 80% said yes (with only 14% saying no).

By contrast, close to a majority -- 48% -- said Obama lacks the experience for the job (with 44% saying yes).

The findings indicate that the McCain camp's controversial advertising thrust of late -- depicting Obama as a mere "celebrity" who isn't "ready to lead" -- has paid dividends.

The findings also suggest that to stem the inroads McCain has made against him, Obama needs to change the conversation. After all, it's not as if he's going to be able to substantially beef up his resume in the 2 1/2 months until election day.

Next week's Democratic National Convention in Denver may enable Obama to make up some ground in another category where McCain has a significant edge over him -- the matter of patriotism.

The new poll found that 84% judged McCain strongly patriotic, while just 55% said that of Obama. Only 9% said they have questions about McCain's patriotism; 35% expressed doubts about Obama's.

The survey posed a number of questions about the potential impact of race on the presidential race, which The Times' Michael Finnegan explores elsewhere on LATimes.com.

The poll's match-up numbers are these: Obama, 45%; McCain 43%. By comparison, the June numbers were Obama, 49%; McCain, 37% (in each case, the margin of error is plus-or-minus 3 percentage points).

When Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the mixed, the race tightens even more. The results in the four-way contest: Obama, 42%; McCain, 41%; Nader, 4%; Barr, 1%.

In June, the four-way race had slightly expanded Obama's lead. Those figures were Obama, 48%; McCain 33%; Nader, 4%; Barr, 3%.

The new poll may provide Obama some solace ...

... on whether he is viewed as "too arrogant or presumptuous" to be president -- another theme the McCain camp has been pushing. Asked that question, 35% said yes, 59% said no.

Those numbers aren't much different from the results when voters were asked if they viewed McCain as "too hot-tempered" to be president -- 30% said yes, 56% no.

The new poll also found that the "passion gap" still benefits Obama, but not nearly as much as it did two months ago, largely because of a pronounced shift in attitude among McCain's backers.

In June, 45% of his supporters described themselves as enthusiastic about him (with just 14% labeling themselves "very" enthusiastic). In the new survey, conducted from Friday through Monday, 61% of McCain's supporters declare their enthusiasm for him -- and 27% of them embrace the "very enthusiastic" tag.

For Obama, the numbers are virtually unchanged. In the new poll, 78% of his backers are enthusiastic about him (with 46% in the "very" enthusiastic camp; in June, the overall enthusiastic number was 81% (with 47% of those "very" enthusiastic).

-- Don Frederick

Photo credit: Associated Press

Comments

[Bill W]

George Bush has more "experience" than only one other person in the world. Perhaps intelligence trumps experience. Remember that McCain was 4th from the bottom in a class of 800.

[Frank W]

I feel that the half truths that Obama the great orator has been telling are finally catching up to him. He will contunue to loose ground the closer he gets to the election. People usually vote for any candidate other then the one the media and movie stars are backing. He's starting to stutter around like he did when his teleprompter stopped working.

[Gil]

He has 20+ years experience in Washington. If you like the trend that was set over 20 years ago, and where the "experienced" politicians are taking it, vote for "more of the Same". Obama has government experience and promises change. He has already conducted the cleanest campaign in decades, which is a good start on the promise of change.

McCain has experience from his military background, however, has he done anything to be proud of for the military? Not, because if he had he would be bragging about it.

McCain, McCain he is more of the same, and oh what an embarrassment, just like Bush the retar..!

[Hans]

If McCain has so much experience, why did he need to cheat at the Saddleback Church by hearing the questions given first to Obama, when, as they had first claimed, McCain was _supposed_ to have been in a "cone of silence"?

Hmmm...

[Betsy]

Stacy, how can you vote for McCain when he is the total opposite of what Hillary stands for? You are supposed to base your vote on the issues, policies and track record, not who appears to be the "least snobby." This isn't an election in junior high. As a HIllary supporter you should logically vote for the candidate SHE supports!

[hmpierson]

all of you pro-Hillary deadenders - did you listen to Obama and McCain last Saturday?

Did you hear what they both had to say about Supreme Court judges?

You want to go back to the era of coat hanger abortions?

Go ahead, cut off your nose to spite your face. Apparently, you think that's the "right thing" to do.

[Steve PIeragastini]

Sadly, yes, it looks as if we Americans are going to shoot ourselves in the foot again and choose Big Oil's candidate for president. Just like some of us said in '00 and '04, you'll be eating your words of praise for McCain once his foolish policies sink our country even further into recession.

McCain was a decent candidate 8 years ago, when he took a different position on every issue than he does now. The Democrats are going to wuss out again in a sad attempt to take the moral high ground. McCain hired Rove's protege to run his campaign and now he's caught up to Obama. Obama refuses to attack some of the very questionable parts of McCain's past because he doesn't want to question the morality of a war hero. If the Democrats want to win, they are going to have to swift boat McCain the same way the Republicans did to Kerry, fair is fair.

[Just a guy]

Somehow, Obama reminds me of Jesus...

[Consistency Hobgoblin]

McCain's our man. Victory in Iraq!

Commander in Chief

[Brian Rapp]

This whole "experience" discussion is stupid. Using this argument, Bush should have been a stellar president during his second term. Experience is only a small piece of the total package. Judgment is what really counts. Just because someone has "experience" doesn't mean they're going to make wise decisions. The assumption being made by people who hold that position is that the experienced person will act in the best interests of the American people. Haven't you learned from eight years of Bush that Republicans don't care about you unless you're filthy rich? All their experience has done is teach them how to game the system.

I wasn't too keen on Obama at first, but if you look at how he's put together his campaign, you'll see a first rate organization. That's a sign of good leadership. He has exercised much better judgment during his short time in the senate than John McCain has during his entire life. And while I'm on the topic, I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me how being a POW qualifies someone for the presidency.

Too many people vote for president based on their perception of a candidate's character. That's how we got two terms of Bush. Too many of you liked Bush because you thought he would be a great person to drink a beer with, or you saw him as some kind of protective daddy figure who was going to save you from the scary brown people hiding in your closet.

If you like what Bush has done to the middle class, then by all means vote for McCain. Just don't be surprised when he engages us in more wars (just like he has already repeatedly said he would) and pushes through his economic agenda which will take even more jobs from the middle class. Why so many of you listen to the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Michael Savage, and Bill O'Reilly, and vote against your own economic interests is a mystery that won't be solved until long after the United States has become a third world country, thanks to people like you.

[Dr. Dave]

Slowly but surely as the electorate scrutinizes the Question Mark that is Obama the majority of us will see him for who he truly is. Inexperienced with many many dubious associates from known communists, racists, and corrupt political "fixers".

[Brian Rapp]

This whole "experience" discussion is stupid. Using this argument, Bush should have been a stellar president during his second term. Experience is only a small piece of the total package. Judgment is what really counts. Just because someone has "experience" doesn't mean they're going to make wise decisions. The assumption being made by people who hold that position is that the experienced person will act in the best interests of the American people. Haven't you learned from eight years of Bush that Republicans don't care about you unless you're filthy rich? All their experience has done is teach them how to game the system.

I wasn't too keen on Obama at first, but if you look at how he's put together his campaign, you'll see a first rate organization. That's a sign of good leadership. He has exercised much better judgment during his short time in the senate than John McCain has during his entire life. And while I'm on the topic, I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me how being a POW qualifies someone for the presidency.

Too many people vote for president based on their perception of a candidate's character. That's how we got two terms of Bush. Too many of you liked Bush because you thought he would be a great person to drink a beer with, or you saw him as some kind of protective daddy figure who was going to save you from the scary brown people hiding in your closet.

If you like what Bush has done to the middle class, then by all means vote for McCain. Just don't be surprised when he engages us in more wars (just like he has already repeatedly said he would) and pushes through his economic agenda which will take even more jobs from the middle class. Why so many of you listen to the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Michael Savage, and Bill O'Reilly, and vote against your own economic interests is a mystery that won't be solved until long after the United States has become a third world country, thanks to people like you.

[Dr. Dave]

Slowly but surely as the electorate scrutinizes the Question Mark that is Obama the majority of us will see him for who he truly is. Inexperienced with many many dubious associates from known communists, racists, and corrupt political "fixers".

[Brian K.]

Lock it in dems! Time to announce Clinton on the VP ticket and send MyCane to the geriatric wing of D.C. and forget about his antiquated last in line of a dying breed.

[BILLY]

first of all, lets all drop the hillary talk. she will get another shot in 4 years. shes done. i dont understand why everyone is kicking a dead horse here.

anyway...

the problem with 'most' people here is that they are trying to defiend their choice of candidates by saying "i did my homework and..."
the reality is that everybody here has already picked a candidate without doing any real homework at all. instead what most of you have done is picked a candidate based on the party you already support (democrat republican ind.) and THEN you did your homework as far as searching for ways to support your choice and slander the other candidate. you never gave the other guy a chance.

historically, im not political. and i have no preference for democrat or republican.
but this year, i did my homework...and i didnt go anywhere near wikipedia. i all but ignored the media. i went back and forth on the issues and both candidates present strong and valid ideas and beliefs.
and being a manager, i treated my decision like i would treat any job interview or application comparison.

while looking at these two candidates resume's, i wonder...why would anybody even consider selecting Obama to be the leader of the united states?

its clear to me that McCain is simply the better qualified man for the job.

[William Brown field]

Mccain had affairs on his first wife for years! The second an issue came up about another affair. He lacks moral fiber period.

[BILLY]

BETSY!!! "This isn't an election in junior high. As a HIllary supporter you should logically vote for the candidate SHE supports"

how very very VERY wrong of you.
stacy nor anyone should NEVER vote for a candidate just because a well known politician supports that candidate too. stacy and EVERYONE else should vote for whoever THEY decide to vote for. and not let their opinion be swayed by people like you.

[Stacy]

Betsy, Hillary herself said that McCain was the one who touted experience, much like herself and she went on to say that Obama "gave some great speeches". My choice of McCain over Obama is based on much, much more than snobbiness, believe me. It's based on which candidate has the experience to act responsibly when the crud hits the fan. All Obama has to offer when hit with an unexpected question (let alone an unexpected event) is to "Hmmm? Uhhh? Uhmmm?" his way to a completely incoherent response. He's not ready, just as Hillary tried to explain to Dems. I won't vote for him. The Dems have screwed up, once again, and chose a candidate who is unelectable.

[dave]

mccain's 'gulag archipelago' or, 'cheating for christians'

mccain: 'he came walkin' up...stood there for a minute, and with his sandal, on the dirt in the courtyard, he drew a cross.'

solzhenitsyn: 'slowly he looked up and saw a skinny old prisoner squat down beside him. the man said nothing. instead, he used a stick to draw in the dirt the sign of the cross.'

in solzhenitsyn's story, the power of the christian symbol, empowering a single man to prevail against a mighty army, and an empire of evil.
in mccain's version, the audacity to abuse the symbol, to lie about his past, in the face of the nation's christian congregation.
to win their approval.

mccain, like obama and clinton, does not mind saying one thing one moment, and the contrary the next; like these other unprincipled, unsteady and shifty puppet candidates, he is a candidate of disintegration, bent on dissolving and removing, borders and distinctions, between sovereign nations and colonies, between facts and fiction, between integrity and corruption, between truth and lies. since he will easily adopt literary characters and merge fiction with his own memories, and does not have own thoughts, could the ex-pow (or is that too, only fantasy?) be expected next to try, to transform america into some fantastic gulag archipelago? and does obama's vision of a better world, then project the ambition of a prison planet?
the constitutional republican candidate for president who consistently tells the truth, upholds the constitution, loves liberty, and votes his conscience, is candidate for PRESIDENT, RON PAUL.

[Bill W]

"mccain's 'gulag archipelago' or, 'cheating for christians'

mccain: 'he came walkin' up...stood there for a minute, and with his sandal, on the dirt in the courtyard, he drew a cross.'

solzhenitsyn: 'slowly he looked up and saw a skinny old prisoner squat down beside him. the man said nothing. instead, he used a stick to draw in the dirt the sign of the cross.'

in solzhenitsyn's story, the power of the christian symbol, empowering a single man to prevail against a mighty army, and an empire of evil.
in mccain's version, the audacity to abuse the symbol, to lie about his past, in the face of the nation's christian congregation to win their approval."

But won't McCain's latest version attract more voters than his original version "he came walkin' up...stood there for a minute, turned around, and made a yellow X in the snow"

[tlsmith1963]

If Obama loses, it will be the thing that makes me leave America. I'm fed up. I'm tired of the Republicans & their horrible, uncaring ways. I'm sick of how they lie & cheat to win elections. No one ever seems to stop them. They just keep getting away with things. I'd rather live in a country where my votes would matter, a more liberal country Here, I just feel like my life is wasting away.

Now, if I could just make enough money in this horrible economy so that I *can* leave. And don't tell me that I want to leave because I hate America. I love this country too much to just stay here & see it fall apart because no one stops the Republicans.

[scootmandubious]

I see I rattled a lot of cages with my racism charge. Good, open your eyes. It's not such a bad thing.

I have heard too many, otherwise well-meaning Democrats, ironically referring to Rev. Wright as the reason they could NEVER vote for Obama. I have witnessed somebody bluntly stating that they would never vote for a black man, and several have said to me that they wouldn't vote for a muslim, as if Senator Obama was one.

Then you have the typical Rovian ploy by McCain, calling the race card before anybody can call you out on racism, and defusing the charge in the process.

See, now the GOP tactic is to ridicule anybody who dares to raise the spectre of racism on a message forum.

Well sorry to disappoint you, but have you looked at any of the muck that people have slimed Obama with in the name of John McCain?

And, if you are a non-racist McCain supporter, have you spoken out against those who would sully the reputation of the rest of you with their vile racist rants.

If you have posted on boards and not seen a significant number of specifically racist posts against Barack Obama than that can mean only one thing.

You're blind.

[Betsy]

BILLY - I'm sure Stacy is not swayed by "people like me" - if she wants to do a complete 180 and vote for a right wing warmonger, that's her right as an American. Way to go Stacy! I'm sure Hillary would be proud of you.

Hillary herself said that she and Obama were so much alike that it was hard to campaign against him. To vote for McCain is a slap in her face.

[Malibu Surfer]

Yes, it's true that the polls are saying that John McCain is closing in on Barack Obama's lead.

What these polls don't say are:

1.) A majority of the votes for John McCain don't have an education exceeding that of high school.

2.) A majority of the votes for John McCain actually feel that RACE is an issue for them.

I

[rrowing]

Hillary is the only viable candidate against McMain. Super delegates, wake up and do what you were appointed for: to vote for the most electable when neither candidate has enough delegates to secure the nomination. PUMA