Experience a key John McCain advantage in new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll

When last we had a L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll to peruse, the result that stood out (aside from Barack Obama's 12-percentage point lead over John McCain in a head-to-head match-up) was what we termed the "passion gap" -- a marked difference in enthusiasm levels that favored the Democrat in the June survey.

The new, just-released poll not only shows the race between the two dramatically tightening -- into a virtual dead heat, with Obama leading in the head-to-head by only 2 percentage points -- but it also identifies a distinct McCain asset: a huge advantage on the question of experience.

The survey of almost 1,250 registered voters showed that the vast majority have no doubt McCain is qualified for the White House. Asked if the Republican had the right experience to be president, 80% said yes (with only 14% saying no).

By contrast, close to a majority -- 48% -- said Obama lacks the experience for the job (with 44% saying yes).

The findings indicate that the McCain camp's controversial advertising thrust of late -- depicting Obama as a mere "celebrity" who isn't "ready to lead" -- has paid dividends.

The findings also suggest that to stem the inroads McCain has made against him, Obama needs to change the conversation. After all, it's not as if he's going to be able to substantially beef up his resume in the 2 1/2 months until election day.

Next week's Democratic National Convention in Denver may enable Obama to make up some ground in another category where McCain has a significant edge over him -- the matter of patriotism.

The new poll found that 84% judged McCain strongly patriotic, while just 55% said that of Obama. Only 9% said they have questions about McCain's patriotism; 35% expressed doubts about Obama's.

The survey posed a number of questions about the potential impact of race on the presidential race, which The Times' Michael Finnegan explores elsewhere on LATimes.com.

The poll's match-up numbers are these: Obama, 45%; McCain 43%. By comparison, the June numbers were Obama, 49%; McCain, 37% (in each case, the margin of error is plus-or-minus 3 percentage points).

When Ralph Nader and Bob Barr are added to the mixed, the race tightens even more. The results in the four-way contest: Obama, 42%; McCain, 41%; Nader, 4%; Barr, 1%.

In June, the four-way race had slightly expanded Obama's lead. Those figures were Obama, 48%; McCain 33%; Nader, 4%; Barr, 3%.

The new poll may provide Obama some solace ...

... on whether he is viewed as "too arrogant or presumptuous" to be president -- another theme the McCain camp has been pushing. Asked that question, 35% said yes, 59% said no.

Those numbers aren't much different from the results when voters were asked if they viewed McCain as "too hot-tempered" to be president -- 30% said yes, 56% no.

The new poll also found that the "passion gap" still benefits Obama, but not nearly as much as it did two months ago, largely because of a pronounced shift in attitude among McCain's backers.

In June, 45% of his supporters described themselves as enthusiastic about him (with just 14% labeling themselves "very" enthusiastic). In the new survey, conducted from Friday through Monday, 61% of McCain's supporters declare their enthusiasm for him -- and 27% of them embrace the "very enthusiastic" tag.

For Obama, the numbers are virtually unchanged. In the new poll, 78% of his backers are enthusiastic about him (with 46% in the "very" enthusiastic camp; in June, the overall enthusiastic number was 81% (with 47% of those "very" enthusiastic).

-- Don Frederick

Photo credit: Associated Press

Comments

[Dan]

Let's hope this is the low point and Obama needs to start dominating the narrative now.

The idea that anyone could vote for McCain is still insane.

[Alessandro Machi]

Experience favors Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama. Sadly the different polling institutions refuse to poll how well Hillary Clinton would do against John McCain.

Instead of providing historical reference statistics, the polling institutions have chosen to just go along with the "presumptive" nominee who can't change how little experience he has.

http://www.HILLARY-WINS.com
http://www.CAUCUSCHEATING.com
http://www.FAIR-REFLECTION.com

[BJ]

Obama's gonna looossse :)

[BJ]

We still have a week for Democrats to change their nominee from Obama to Hillary!

NOBAMA... Hillary or McCain '08

[Publius]

The slow, steady decline of Barack Obama continues. The more people learn about the man, the more they understand why he's too inexperienced and far left to lead this country. As unbelievable as it would have sounded just 2 months ago, I'm predicting an easy win for McCain in November--Obamabots everywhere should start owning up to the fact that the American people have seen and rejected their candidate.

[Steve B.]

We all know how reliable polls are, but there is also a viewpoint that polls are manipulative. Like McCain not being in the 'cone of silence' booth for last weekends forum, poll results can be designed to 'sway' attention in a given direction.

With that said we still have to deal with the acceptance of the 'high road' (which never seems to come). Politicians like Clinton and McCain using gutter tactics to achive their reach for more power and self ingraciation. Obviously I'm not a McCain fan but once was a Clinton fan until they began to show their true colors during the recent primaries.

It is almost always the easy road to do the wrong thing, the high road takes far more effort and human nature seems to prove that it will continue to be a more difficult achievement.

[Powell]

LOL... I love how the LA Times buries the actual result of the poll... An Obama lead. McCain has been spending all of his money on ads (and will run out at the end of the month as he has to accept public financing) and Obama is still in the lead.

[Pinkus Shminkus]

The previous poll had about 60% registered dems respondants and that same incompetent Susan Pinkus
was in charge and proclaiming the accuracy of her flawed sampling. Hey folks Obama is toast ! Only 4 in 5
dems support the big zero...20 % of dems cant stand the
bum who hurled racist accusations at Hillary. This poll
has one ambition...it is to show Obama that he will loose
the election unless he has Hillary as a running mate...and
the Chicago mob will never let him pick her.

[Anne Washington]

The aobve article says that McCain's advertising showing Obama as an entertainer is helping----maybe that is not the case. It might be that the American public is seeing more and more of Obama and his changes, his lack of ability to talk clearly without a teleprompter, his lack of experience and his programs which will be a disaster for America. Of all of the wise people in the world, or the US, Obama said on national television that he would consult his wife first. Has she been vetted? How much control would this inexperience with no foreign policy at all ---woman possess. You don't have to answer it might be "above your pay grade".

[Peter]

There's difference between McCain's Patriotism and his Un-Americanism. When Americans learn what the meaning of imperialsm is, they will finally stand up and proclaim their independence, and express their distrust for McCain's reasons for wanting to become President. It is very American to denounce imperialism. It is very American to defend our democracy. It is very Un-American for McCain to perpetuate IMPERIALISM, and the momentum towards establishing an Imperialist Presidency must end during this election. Those who don't understand the concept should not vote until they do a little bit of homework.

[scootmandubious]

As far as the poll, and McCain's experience, how do you suppose the numbers might shift if.....
---voters were reminded of McCain's being a part of "the Keating 5?"
---McCain's comments from early in the Iraqi war were replayed, where he talked about being greeted as liberators and how Iraqi oil would pay for it?
---it were exposed that McCain's cross story never happened and was plagiarized from Solzhenitsyn?
---McCain's 'experience' showed he has, over the years, been on both sides of every issue?

So far, it has been Obama playing defense. I suspect that we are about to see how well McCain performs, under the same scrutiny.

If America allows McCain to win, his operatives, like the alleged Hillary supporter above who posts here ad nauseum, will have what they are really after, the overturning of Roe v. Wade and a Supreme Court that disallows equal pay for equal work.

It's not just that the electorate is stupid, but they permit themselves to be brainwashed by the corporations that gleefully allow their, you'll pardon the expression, 'news' outlets to endless repeat RNC talking points.

A McCain win would be an absolute disaster for this country. When are people actually gonna wake up?

Please, we really can't be this racist, can we?

[McCain is Bush]

Being an old person does not equate to attaining experience. Experience is acquired through personal growth. Considering John McCain's view of the economy, the War in Iraq, Health Care, etc., his growth has been stunted for years. No experience there.

[antifish]

My, my, the Obama supporters here so desperate! You should be, he's going down and there's no way he's coming back up. Like the article says, he can't pad his resume much in 2 months. He also can't stop anyone from buying the NYT #1 bestseller "Obamanation" and passing it on to their friends. Add to this his little performance the other night which was nothing short of pathetic and clearly showed that he is just a marketed, prefabricated candidate.

I can't wait till the press does a number on his egotistical nomination extravaganza in Denver, another huge mistake and more fodder for McCain to play on the celebrity theme. Just wait until the public finds out that this unnecessary event alone is wasting over 3 million dollars just to bolster Obama's ego. Didn't he waste enough on his round-the-world ego trip? Wonder what that pathetic imitation presidential seal cost? Is this what he would do as president, waste millions of the taxpayers' money to promote himself?

The American people stung themselves in 2004, don't expect it to happen again. BTW, there's still time to pull Clinton out of the mothballs and win this thing.

[acarponzo]

Where is Obama's support in the real-time poll at http://www.bop-o-rama.com? His total is about to hit 400,000 while Mcain's number is only around 180,000. Have the democrats in cyberspace given up? Just before the convention too.

[steve conn]

Advice to Obama- Listen to Ralph Nader. Take on his
positions both domestic and foreign. Win his votes.
Harry Truman did this in 1948 when a third party candidate threatened his victory. He became -"Give em hell, Harry."
You can become " Give em Hell, Barack!"

Independent candidates bring new ideas to the table. Let Ralph into the debate.

[tlatexaspuma]

Obama has steadily dropped in the polls since the end of the primary. Once he gets to the debates, without the teleprompter, he will go down even more. What kind of idiots are the DNC party officials and super delegates for SELECTING this guy as the candidate. The voters ELECTED and the most EXPERIENCED & ELECTABLE candidate is Hillary Clinton. Hopefully they will wake up at the convention. If not, 4 more years of a Republican.

[Shana McCarthy]

We've had several phone calls re polls and we decline to answer any of their questions. We do believe that most McCain supporters feel that way. We'll give your our answers in November and that's the only ones that count. It's no one's business how we vote; just between us and God.

[John Peabody]

SCOOTMANDUBIOUS..........YOU MAKE ME SICK. JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE SUPPORTS MCCAIN, YOU CALL THEM RACISTS. I CHANGE THAT FIRST STATEMENT;
YOU ARE SICK.

[thebob.bob]

McCain has been the presumptive nominee for months. How come he hasn't "closed the deal".

[Robert]

The fact is McCain's history has been made off limits by the press. If he had the same review as Obama, he could not survive as a viable candidate.

For example where is his military record? Why aren't the tapes of his Vietnam "confessions" in YouTube? Why is the Keating 5 never mentionned. What about his adultery? What about him crashing 4 planes, not just the one he is famous for.

The media searches for old sermons of Jermiah Wright but cannot tell the true history of Mr. McCain.

Sort of sad.

[Vanessa]

McCain's years of "experience" have put us in the mess we're in now. I pray every day that stupid "reasons" won't keep people from voting democratic. I found that baseless rumors and innuendo are more rampant that I thought when I heard my former high school assistant principal state that she couldn't bring herself to vote for Obama because "he attended a Muslim school" as a child. The fact is, his school in Indonesia was not faith-based. If it is falsehoods like this on which people are actually basing their decision, I am appalled. Her statement has depressed me for days now. Wake up people! Don't let rumors and downright lies cloud your judgment. The best person for this job is a young energetic man with actual answers instead of sound bytes, and a vision for the future! Four more years of Bush economics and worldwide hatred for America is not the direction I want to go. The Democrats must go to the polls in droves so this this election will be over before the west coast is finished voting. That way John won't have to stay up past his bedtime.

[John Gambardella]

Dears,
Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld's resumes were publicized prior to the 2000 general elections. Their extensive and varied experience in and around Washington DC is certainly impressive. Their accomplishments during the Bush Administration are even more impressive.

These two insiders were and are the primary driving forces in some of the worst Federal government debacles of modern times. Cheney and Rumsfeld, with the passive intelligence of George W. Bush, brought upon America international disgrace, amorality in foreign policies as well as the attempted dismantling of our highly regarded Constitution, especially the Bill of Rights. The rubble caused by this hubristic triumvirate and their carefully selected, highly experienced political and legal advisors will take years to repair. It may well be generations before we recover from the Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld induced monetary deficit.

So how does the perceived vitality of Washington experience trump intelligence, open-mindedness, willingness for open dialogue with our friends as well as our enemies, and a fresh approach to new and atavistic challenges? The Bush Administration has demonstrated beyond all reasonable doubt that insider knowledge of (how to side-step or circumvent) Washington's publicly accepted, Constitutionally framed policies and procedures can be a catalyst for corruption and an unconscionable, even a ruthless disdain for written laws.

Experience is the inevitable result of longevity. Longevity and experience are not always antithetical to judicious leadership. America has benefited greatly from the learned wisdom and intestinal fortitude that comes from years of on the job training. Several current members in both houses, in both parties, provide the finest representation Americans have ever known.

The burden of selection is on us, the voters. In recent history we allowed groundless base fears to cloud our judgement and guide our hands at the ballot box. We latched on to manipulative rhetoric. We felt protected and reassured by experienced men and their appointees. We were fooled, ill-represented, misguided, and are now paying the highest cost that any lapse in judgement can assign.

The disparity between Bush and Senator John McCain is a fictitious distinction created by McCain and advocated by the news media. The belief that his war experiences provide him a special ability to lead this nation through hostile times ignores the dangerously obvious. Candidate McCain gleefully set to music the wanton destruction of yet another Middle Eastern country. He vigorously advocated the invasion of Iraq. He is perfectly at ease with a permanently overstretched military. He betrayed his purported respect and admiration for our brothers and sisters in uniform when he obstinately voted with Bush and against a veteran’s benefits bill. McCain earned a zero rating from a coalition of environmental organizations. Bush and McCain are fundamentally attached at the hip. We must not be fooled again.

[Sam]

Obama has expereience he has plenty more then 12 years of it. It's weird how people buy what ever lies they are fed and can't even get up and do a bit of research. The fact is Obama has more experience then Reagan or Eisenhower had before they were elected.
It is sad that voters refuse to look at at the issues. I guess the McCain-Bush politics of avoiding the issues works...

[JR]

It is truly remarkable that America can't do any better than these momo's for our country's highest office. Sad really. And scary.

[Stacy]

I'm one of those people who, initially, liked what I was seeing in Obama.

But, as time passed, I've grown to dislike him. A lot. He has recently come across to me as presumptuous, cocky and downright snobby. I think Hillary would have been a much stronger candidate and I won't be pulling the lever for Obama but rather, McCain.