David Plouffe, key Obama aide, says national polls don't matter

DENVER -- David Plouffe, an architect of Barack Obama's surprise ascension to the pinnacle of the Democratic Party, did not look today like a fellow under duress because of the recent spate of national polls showing his candidate losing much of the advantage he's enjoyed over John McCain.

That's because, to hear him tell it (as he did at a press briefing), he all but ignores the surveys that tend to stir much interest among others.

"We don't pay attention to national polls," he said, referring to himself and the rest of the Obama team charged with winning the 270 electoral votes -- accrued through 51 separate contests in the states and the District of Columbia -- to win the White House.

Instead, as Plouffe reviewed the status of the race, he said he and his colleagues concentrate on other matters. Such as, most importantly, the undecided voters in the 18 states they see as the campaign's key battlegrounds and -- in those locales and elsewhere -- efforts to spur turnout of Obama supporters.

"We stay laser-focused on these two factors each and every day," he said.

The obsession on turnout is a key reason he turns a blind eye to the national polls -- and remains pretty positive in his assessment of the race, handwringing among some Democrats notwithstanding. .

Pollsters generally base their sampling group on past voting patterns. But the electorate in 2008, Plouffe said flatly, "is going to be changed in some fundamental ways from 2004."

He did concede this much about the soon-to-be Republican presidential nominee:

"McCain has more strength with independent voters than most Republicans. We as a party can be bummed out about that, but we've got to deal with it."

-- Don Frederick

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Comments

[acarponzo]

What about this poll at http://www.bop-o-rama.com? What do the numbers mean? While Obama is leading, is this a good thing? David Plouffe, how do you read this poll?

[Bob Shapiro]

Do the various polling organizations include cell phone users as part of their samples? I have heard conflicting stories about this. If cell phone users aren't being queried, I think Obama support could be undercounted.

[VJ Machiavelli]

I am sure David you have said it differently if Obama was "WAY" up in the national polls. He would be talking a different line.

But they have lost ground and will bet a "ZERO" bounce.

They "LIED" to there core voters by picking Biden as the agent of "CHANGE" a 35 year veteran of Washington, how thats what I call "REAL CHANGE"

VJ Machiavelli
http:vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com

[John]

Acarponzo, you don't get it. Gore proved you can win the popular vote and lose the presidency. National polls just aren't relevant. Indicative maybe, but not truly relevant. Machiavelli, per my comment above, you are incorrect on point #1, #2 is just hot air, #3 the lie is in your heart. Obama is the change, he doesn't need a VP to augment it. Biden is a brilliant choice, the link between change and the establishment, without which change is doomed to falter.

[Dennis Francis]

Funny, they won the primary with a steady strategy of no drama and intelligent focused campaigning. I'd say they know what they're doing.
They aren't freaking out because the real race happens after the conventions.
The email I got from the McCain campaign is that they'll only have 80 mil to play with after their convention; Obama can blast them with unlimited funds.

[Ed]

Obama's success largely depends on the intelligence of the american voter.
If they get dupped to vote for McCain as the change agent, then they will have proven Obama right. That the Education system in our country is in shambles.

You dont need to be smarter than a fifth grader to know McCain is another Bush term. Thats why all his ads are about destroying Obama rather than what he will do for us.

Just imagine if the Olympic games were about trying to make the other athletes or teams unable to compete. Just imagine, if other weak swimers grabbed and draged Michael Phelps down the pool so they could then slowly swim to the finish line.

[MM]

Biden is an excellent VP. If you feel he is a washington insider think of this -- Biden and Obama both need 10 new houses to match that of McCain's. Neither of them have divorce their wives to marry up, neither of them want another war, and McCain voted for Bush 90% of the time, voted against Veteran Benefits, doesn't oppose a draft, wants war with Russia, doesn't know the economy and because of this doesn't know when he is being played a fool by all the lobbyist he surrounds himself with. Get a clue vote Obama/Biden 08.

[Katherine]

Biden has a solid voting record for progressive, democrat causes, and is admired by Patrick Leahy, my own VT Senator known for paving his own way in the Senate. He does stand for change; he's just been working at it longer.

[Katherine]

Biden has a solid voting record for progressive, democrat causes, and is admired by Patrick Leahy, my own VT Senator known for paving his own way in the Senate. He does stand for change; he's just been working at it longer.

[Dee]

The polls are also illustrating something the media has not explored or explained.

Obama has raised incredible amounts of money from average working people. McCain has had to depend largely on fund raising events to finance his campaign.

Obama has always attracted large crowds - from 10,000 to 70,000 (Portland, Oregon). McCain is hoping to attract 15,000 during the Ohio rally. If he does, it will be 5 times larger than any crowd he has had to date.

Obama has inspired people from all walks of life. McCain is still inspiring Old Republicans in town hall meetings. Obama has inspired people around the world! McCain has not.

Are we once again being programmed and conditioned to accept another corrupted voting tabulation in November? Computers are easy to tamper with - this has already been a problem in several states.

Has anyone else been concerned about this?

[Andrew Austin]

Everything is happening the way I predicted. I fear that when this is over everybody will wish they had listened to me.

[nazcalito]

Bob,it's illegal to make automated calls to cell phones, so the polls that rely on automated calls aren't supposed to include cell phones. Calling land lines only probably does skew results away from younger voters who are out of the house more often and towards older ones that are more likely to be at home during the times the polls call (normally about 6 - 8pm.) I don't have a land line and often don't get home until late, and no pollster has ever called me on the cell.

[Richard P. McDonough]

This election, which Obama will likely win, will change the way that polling is done. Present polling is traditionally skewed, while the new electorate is hardly a mirror of the traditional one. Just looking at the new registrations and what parties are registering them gives a clue.

[Julie]

Re: "Obama's success largely depends on the intelligence of the american voter." - Ed

This is very true. The media coverage is lopsided, McCain has yet to be vetted, and the PUMA's are attempting sabatoge to get Hillary in for 2012 (no guarantee there). America needs to wake up. Caroline Kennedy was right when she called him, "A President like my father." I believe that.

[Don]

Of course, we only care about polls when they are helping support our candidate. Both parties are doing it. But something bad is going on here and it can't be denied. Obama has plummeted in the polls. Like it or not, his message is not capturing the hearts of the majority. Ignore the polls at your peril. A lot of people believed in Obama's message early on. But between over exposure by the media and hearing the same "change" rhetoric over and over again, his persona has become shop worn. The media, in their attempt to help Obama, has actually hurt him. Hearing essentially the same speech night after night starts to sound robotic and insincere. If anything, the media frenzy has caused Americans to root for the underdog...McCain. Americans love the underdog and can sense the medias gross bias and lack of fair play. Finally, it may be that many Democrats just don't believe Obama is ready. I don't.

[John S.]

I think we're looking at a repeat of "Dewey Defeats Truman" here. For the last few decades, land lines have been pervasively adopted in most homes. But that didn't used to be the case in the past, and it's beginning not to be the case now. None of my three children (all of voting age) have land lines, and the only reason I still have one is that I don't have good cell coverage inside my house. I think the polls will be shown to be suprisingly off. Look at how far off they were during the primaries in some states.

[Phrank]

The simplest answer is that as MILLIONS of pro-Obama college students return to school after being at home during the summer, they are changing from a population pollable on landlines to one that isn't. This alone will explain decrease the Obama numbers the one or two points that have been obtained. Of course, why go for the simplest answer when an oppportunity presents itself to ride one's political hobby horses? Much better for the blind to continue misleading the blind.

[Mr. McCain has a problem]

Bill Gates built Microsoft to be one of the largest companies in America. Bill Gates did not have any experience. He had a vision and good judgment. I will bet my mortgage payment on him than the guy who has run South Pacific Railroad for the past 30 years.
I am an elitist, and I am proud.

[dean derek]

Obama has no experience to be president

[Ericka]

Nobody has experience to become president until they get sworn in, because Bush's experience did not do our country a whole lot of good. Now Obama has the judgement to lead our country in a new direction

[Mr. Warmonger]

Polls never mean much anyway, how does a sample of a couple thousand people really represent a country of 300 million? And he's absolutely right, a National vote does not decide the election its state by state.

[Mikecoatl]

I am worried, but more than I probably should be. 'Mr. Warmonger' made a great point: there is something fundamentally comical about trying to predict the behavior of 100 million+ human beings by asking the opinions of a few thousand (at most) of those people. And for you McSame morons out there harping on experience, here is a little gem that pretty much blows your whole argument sky high:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Info/experience.html

[Scott]

Don and Dean Derek, The way you put this, it sounds like the burden of proof lies entirely with Obama, as though McCain's qualifications to serve as POTUS are a given. His fitness is highly questionable. He lacks any life experience that demonstrates either the intellectual or emotional capacity to do the job.

This is a weighing and balancing, a choice between, to me, clear alternatives. You might fairly say "Obama doesn't have as much experience or the type of experience you'd prefer to see." But the default in that analysis is not, "therefore, I should vote for McCain." it has to be, "given that, and McCain's obvious flaws, who do I trust not to screw the pooch when he gets into office." McCain's record certainly doesn't provide a reason to trust him to do anything except deliver us all as a package to "K Street."

You really must try harder to think this thing through.

[Toni]

How can we trust the polls!!! Remember the fiasco with the Kerry/Bush campaigns?

[Domingo Tavella]

Obama campaign's manager is in a state of denial, and so is most of the rest of the country.

However difficult it may be to accept it, racism has already determined the outcome in November.

This is embarrassing and rather shameful, but it is the truth. It is a true of Obama/McCain today as it was of Bradley/Dukemejian in CA not too many years ago.

American Blacks should know better and get down to work by increasing their share of the population far above current values if they want to hope ever to have a chance at winning the White House.

If blacks increase their share of the population they will not only be able to have a black president, they will be able to have plan representing their interests, not a hybrid agenda intended to assuage the fears of prejudiced whites, which is what Obama has to offer in his winning fantasy.

[dan]

You think the polls are close now...wait until after the conventions when Obama has to actually explain and defend his positions on issues other than repeating hope and change.

The undecided are not your typical kool-aide drinkers, and are not under some type of Obama spell. They are going to want specific answers to their concerns. Nuanced answers without decisive answers isn't going to cut it.

[Mark Price]

I live in Maryland, A Democratic state that continues to be more demogrphically. Maryland has raised every tax possible in one year and continues to play the old boy network and leave their people out, If this is an example of how Democrats can ruin one state, I hate to see A Democratic president along with a Democratic congress like Maryland with no Republicans for checks and balance. Don't ever consider Maryland unless your a Democrat that loves taxes and pure liberialism.

I recently met an African American from Chicago who has lived their all their lives. Knowing politics well, he says Obama is a snake who takes smooth, but has slept with every corrupt politician in Chicago. As Senstor there he has done nothing. Most people as a matter of fact do not like Obama as a person. I would advise people who are going to vote to talk to people who have lived in Chicago and understand his track record. For the people who vote for him, I hope you get everything you wished for, which is politics as usual but only worst with the yes sir Democratic controlled congress.