Battleground bucks favoring Barack Obama over John McCain

With Barack Obama on vacation and John McCain maintaining a schedule light on generating news, we decided to poke around at the Open Secrets site, to see where the money is going from donors in likely battleground states.

Advantage: Obama.

Now we realize where the donations come from does NOT mean that the votes will follow. But it's still interesting to take the measure of it. Below is The Times' interactive map of states, with the battleground states defined as those in which the margin of 2004 victory was less than 8 percentage points.

Now we go over to Open Secrets and look at its tables of states and political contributions. For the purposes of these tables, we're leaving out the withdrawn candidates. And the totals include primaries, which skews the results a bit for Obama since the Democratic fight was more protracted than the Republican fight. But it's still interesting to mull.

                                                                                                                                       

State	McCain raised	Obama raised	advantage
Colorado	$1,791,828	$3,386,366	Obama
Delaware	208,016	230,955	Obama
Florida	9,793,200	8,092,536	McCain
Iowa	254,430	644,961	Obama
Michigan	2,942,741	2,467,003	McCain
Minnesota	1,215,608	1,786,394	Obama
Missouri	1,359,332	1,988,004	Obama
Nevada	1,147,931	751,545	McCain
New Hampshire	538,505	945,474	Obama
New Jersey	2,990,941	4,727,378	Obama
New Mexico	319,863	1,192,070	Obama
Ohio	1,866,001	2,134,689	Obama
Oregon	650,964	1,813,428	Obama
Pennsylvania	2,575,068	4,942,149	Obama
Washington	1,317,906	4,995,383	Obama
Wisconsin	831,661	1,378,850	Obama

-- Scott Martelle

Comments

[Back From Iraq]

Obama's whirlwind tour of Iraq and Germany were supposed to propel him into a high velocity campaign from three weeks ago to November; but it just didn't happen. In fact, Obama's stalled numbers remained stalled then ... and are still stalled now. People who were willing to blindly vote for that unknown change are feeling uncomfortable, and are now asking questions; questions met by silence or the usual pre-orchestrated Obama hype that continues to say nothing. If the cold shoulder given by American military personnel abroad, and the lip service returned to Obama by Middle East and European leaders mean anything, then Obama is in for a big disappointment in November. Obama is almost out of gas and he has three months to go. Obama is already on record for being against nuclear development, against aggressive drilling, for abortion, for gun control, for tax increases, for talking to terrorist leaders, and for trial lawyer litigation; virtually “all” of the issues that would kill any candidate’s chance of winning the White House. Even if he tried to change his platform on these very core issues, no one would believe him.

Will John McCain win by a landslide? Probably not given the increased polarity of our country; but he will win.

[Stan]

It seems that the best way to predict the outcome of any election is to look at the money. If you look at all the election betting sites, the results are roughly 60% Obama, 40% McCain. Most of these sites are regularly visited by people who know what they're doing when the bet. If history proves accurate, McCain has a tough road ahead.

[crazysheepness]

How in the world can John Mccain really win? Are people really expecting him to run the country at 70/71?

He should go run FL.

[deandre]

Obama gonna win this election hands down.. nobody wants a bush the 3rd in office....lol

[Andy]

Yeah. Right.. Keep dreaming. While McCain produces gaffe after gaffe.. He shouldn't even be DRIVING.. Where is he going to lead the country to..

[Todd Gilmore]

That electoral map is completely out of touch with the most recent poll results, e.g., at http://www.pollster.com/ .

[souljabwoy]

I think it will be a close primary. There will be no blowouts on either side. If McCain does win it will be because voters voted for him ONLY because they weren't totally sold on Obama, which is unfortunate.

Long term McCain weaknesses - I can't see why anyone is not seeing the age issue like I do? Good lord, the pressures of the white house damn near killed Cheney and he was 2nd in command! In today's volatile world, McCain will be on stroke 4 before 2009 is up.

[Sandwall]

As a luke-warm Obama supporter; I have to agree.

[Dean]

Hey "Back From Iraq": Where do you get your laughable logic? The reports I saw & read suggest that Obama got a very warm reception by American military personnel abroad, and mid-East and European leaders seemed to favor Obama over McCaint by a wide margin. I'm assuming you are in the military, since you are "back from Iraq".

You can blindly follow the decrepit old POW and vote in November. Then your ID will be "Back to Iraq", cause you got 99 more years to serve there. Then Iran, Russia, China and whoever else McCaint decides to bomb during the year or two before dementia overtakes him totally.

They should bring back the poll tax, or require a HS diploma for people to vote.

[gabe]

People who were willing to blindly vote for that unknown change are feeling uncomfortable, and are now asking questions; questions met by silence or the usual pre-orchestrated Obama hype that continues to say nothing.

umm OK.

i like how you assume someone voting for Obama is voting blindly. and then you go on to slam Obama for preorchestrated hype etc... yet the only thing out of McCain's campagin is "Obama has no experience, Obama is a celebrity (funny how you morons forget all about Regan lol. ) yet McCain failes to describe to us how he is anything differnet thatn Bush. I mean the guy is using Rove tactics and flip flopping on EVERYTHING he stood for in 2000. people are sick of the same old republican failure machine. For you to say McCain WILL win when he is still trailing in the polls is just plain ignorant.

[Goatblaster]

McCain will lose, and lose BADLY. Obama's on vacation, and still raising money. He''s like a train in full motion and McCain is lying on the tracks.

BOOM!!!! Obama wins.

time to eat fish.

[wishing we never went to iraq]

DAAAH YA THINK BACK FROM IRAQ IS A RIGHT WING NUTJOB?

[Miller Time]

Obama is all talk and no action, adding to Back From Iraq's comments, Obama has also said that both sides are to blame concerning the war in Georgia. This further illustrates his weakness in term of foreign policy and Russia will most surely want an Obama in office so they can continue their tactics of intimidation and deceit.

[Dean there, dumb that]

Hey Dean! I wonder if you'll have the same disrespect for older people when you get to be that age. That's assuming what little intelligence you seem to possess now stays with you and YOU don't suffer from some trauma or malady that renders you even more idiotic.

As for insulting someone who served in the military, all I have to say is thank god for them so that whiny little piss ants like yourself have the opportunity to voice your inconsequential drivel.

[Clugs]

"funny how you morons forget all about Regan lol."

Reagan was governor of California for 8 years... Obama is on his first full-time job (senator) in his adult lifetime.

Experience is a major issue for the office of president. How many large companies do you know that would hire someone with 2 years of experience as CEO of their company?

[snesich]

Hey, "Back from Iraq", the only people who think Barack Obama has the "wrong" position on your laundry list of issues are right-wing extremists, like yourself. Of course he won't win with those people. He doesn't need to. Obama will win by getting the votes of everyone else.

Talk to your moderate/conservative co-workers and neighbors, if you have any. Most of them are voting for Obama.

[indi]

The real news in not how much money Obama raised. It is why his poll number is not in proportion with his money. The liberal media does not want to bring this up. This could end up to the biggest flop in the election history and tons of books will be written about it. Obama does not really have much to sell on except the hope and dream stuff, which is a lesson the country learned (or not learned) by electing Carter. A lot of people like Obama because they hate Bush. That is why I agree with the statement that people vote Obama blindly.

[Kaycie]

The thought of John McCain actually running our country is scary to me, and those in my generation who know something is wrong. Since you all know that the future of our country is in the younger generations hands, I wish the older people would just bow out and give us the candidate we all stand behind. John McCain is so old, he must have robotic parts running his body. Sign off John McCain, this generation doesn't want you. Stick with your own....in a retirement community.

[Duh....]

Obama is all talk and no action, adding to Back From Iraq's comments, Obama has also said that both sides are to blame concerning the war in Georgia. This further illustrates his weakness in term of foreign policy and Russia will most surely want an Obama in office so they can continue their tactics of intimidation and deceit.

Posted by: Miller Time | August 13, 2008 at 12:53 PM

---------------------------------------------------------------

It's universally accepted that both sides played a part in the Russia/Georgia debacle.

But hey....don't let a little thing called facts get in the way of slandering Obama.

You've had too much "miller time" me thinks....

[Address the issues]

Odd how everyone here jumps all over Back From Iraq and attacks him on a personal level. You call him a right wing nut job. You say the poll tax should be brought back and that voting should require a high school diploma and the like. My first question is this: do you libs think that EVERYONE who wants to vote should have a high school diploma? EVERYONE? Think about it...if you can.

Secondly, I'd love...LOVE...to hear you all attempt to defend the points that Back From Iraq brought up. Mainly, drilling for oil, abortion, gun control and, the big one, taxes.

How many of you pampered west coast living pompous blowhards were actually there when Obama was visiting the troops? You doubt Back From Iraq because you don't want Obama to be anything but what you want him to be and that's the answer to all of your greedy little dreams. He'll steal from the rich and give to the poor right? The man is an inexperienced senator folks! He's not Robin flipping Hood!

[Greg]

The table of primary donations by state is even more interesting when you consider that even though Obama did not participate in either the Florida or Michigan primaries, donations to his campaign from those states were very close to contributions to McCain. If you discount those states that leaves only one state on the list, Nevada, where McCain's campaign outraised funds. Considering that individual donations to McCain tend to be much larger but far less frequent, this does indicate very widespread popular support for Obama. Whether or not that translates into votes in November is another question.

[Drew]

Back from Iraq, seeing that you've just returned from a land far, far away where you were subjected to endless pressure from republican superiors and peers as well as undoubtedly hours of faux news watching every day, your ignorance of the facts is probably excusable.

McCain has ruefully agreed that keeping tyres inflated does more to help this country's oil consuption than drilling, but you weren't listening.
Of course faux news and McCain try to lie their way out of it by claiming that it would take only two years for drilling to have an effect (experts say it'll be not before 2030).

And yeah, of course faux news reported there was no effect of the Obama's trip - based on a survey done one day into the trip...

Obama has plenty of substance, of course the media never report on it because that makes him buy ad time to make people know. You would know though if you made an effort.

So keep on dreaming in your little republican bubble, while we in the real world make change happen.

[snesich]

Clugs,
How many large companies do you know that would hire someone lazy, incompetent, confused and slow to run one of their companies?

John McCain is lazy and incompetent: He finished last in his class at college. And he only got in to that college because daddy and grandpa were admirals.

John McCain is confused. He doesn't know Shites from Sunnis; he doesn't understand that Iran would never support Al-Qaeda; he doesn't know that
Czechoslovakia hasn't existed in over 15 years. He admits he is ignorant about economics.

John McCain is slow and somewhat unaware of the world we live in today. He's far from "executive material". He's just the opposite. If he didn't leave his first wife when she was sick, to marry the beer millionaire, he'd never be anyone today.

[noname]

McCain can't win cause he's old?
Who was Ronald Reagan?
Biggest land slide win in most of our life times.

Sit down.

[indi]

Clugs, you don't get it. Silver tongue sells in this country. The heck with experience. I say the average IQ of all voters combined is probably not high, so are our elective officials. No offensive. I speak for the truth.